Conflict Capital
@conflictal.bsky.social
Analytics, war in Ukraine, all-world events. Group of Ukrainian servicemen, former Intelegence officers. Longreads
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6/Russia can’t sell itself as a food donor anymore. It’s not a leader — it’s struggling to stay relevant.
July 25, 2025 at 2:38 PM
6/Russia can’t sell itself as a food donor anymore. It’s not a leader — it’s struggling to stay relevant.
5/Meanwhile, Canada and Kazakhstan keep expanding in China. Russia isn’t just losing money — it’s losing its image as a “grain superpower.”
IKAR: July wheat exports may hit a 17-year low — just 2M tons. And droughts cut harvests to 3.8M tons vs 16.5M last year.
IKAR: July wheat exports may hit a 17-year low — just 2M tons. And droughts cut harvests to 3.8M tons vs 16.5M last year.
July 25, 2025 at 2:38 PM
5/Meanwhile, Canada and Kazakhstan keep expanding in China. Russia isn’t just losing money — it’s losing its image as a “grain superpower.”
IKAR: July wheat exports may hit a 17-year low — just 2M tons. And droughts cut harvests to 3.8M tons vs 16.5M last year.
IKAR: July wheat exports may hit a 17-year low — just 2M tons. And droughts cut harvests to 3.8M tons vs 16.5M last year.
4/To save internal stability, the Central Bank cut its key rate to 18%. It’s not a growth— it’s a lifeline for agro giants now starved of export revenue.
Russia hopes Africa and South Asia will offset the loss. But those markets pay in barter or political IOUs. No hard currency, no short-term fix.
Russia hopes Africa and South Asia will offset the loss. But those markets pay in barter or political IOUs. No hard currency, no short-term fix.
July 25, 2025 at 2:38 PM
4/To save internal stability, the Central Bank cut its key rate to 18%. It’s not a growth— it’s a lifeline for agro giants now starved of export revenue.
Russia hopes Africa and South Asia will offset the loss. But those markets pay in barter or political IOUs. No hard currency, no short-term fix.
Russia hopes Africa and South Asia will offset the loss. But those markets pay in barter or political IOUs. No hard currency, no short-term fix.
3/At BRICS and SPIEF, the Kremlin pushed a “grain initiative” for the Global South. But they refused. Most BRICS states are food exporters or buy from Russia’s rivals.
Even deep price dumping didn’t help: Russia’s currency and logistics instability scare buyers. Cheap doesn’t mean reliable.
Even deep price dumping didn’t help: Russia’s currency and logistics instability scare buyers. Cheap doesn’t mean reliable.
July 25, 2025 at 2:38 PM
3/At BRICS and SPIEF, the Kremlin pushed a “grain initiative” for the Global South. But they refused. Most BRICS states are food exporters or buy from Russia’s rivals.
Even deep price dumping didn’t help: Russia’s currency and logistics instability scare buyers. Cheap doesn’t mean reliable.
Even deep price dumping didn’t help: Russia’s currency and logistics instability scare buyers. Cheap doesn’t mean reliable.
2/China rejected Russian wheat due to poor quality controls and avoided using sanctioned Russian banks. Instead, it ramped up imports from Canada, Australia, and Kazakhstan.
Barley exports also crashed 2.5×. Russian traders lost licenses. Ships were denied certificates and stuck in ports.
Barley exports also crashed 2.5×. Russian traders lost licenses. Ships were denied certificates and stuck in ports.
July 25, 2025 at 2:38 PM
2/China rejected Russian wheat due to poor quality controls and avoided using sanctioned Russian banks. Instead, it ramped up imports from Canada, Australia, and Kazakhstan.
Barley exports also crashed 2.5×. Russian traders lost licenses. Ships were denied certificates and stuck in ports.
Barley exports also crashed 2.5×. Russian traders lost licenses. Ships were denied certificates and stuck in ports.
6/Russia can’t sell itself as a food donor anymore. It’s not a leader — it’s struggling to stay relevant.
July 25, 2025 at 2:36 PM
6/Russia can’t sell itself as a food donor anymore. It’s not a leader — it’s struggling to stay relevant.
5/Meanwhile, Canada and Kazakhstan keep expanding in China. Russia isn’t just losing money — it’s losing its image as a “grain superpower.”
IKAR: July wheat exports may hit a 17-year low — just 2M tons. And droughts cut harvests to 3.8M tons vs 16.5M last year.
IKAR: July wheat exports may hit a 17-year low — just 2M tons. And droughts cut harvests to 3.8M tons vs 16.5M last year.
July 25, 2025 at 2:36 PM
5/Meanwhile, Canada and Kazakhstan keep expanding in China. Russia isn’t just losing money — it’s losing its image as a “grain superpower.”
IKAR: July wheat exports may hit a 17-year low — just 2M tons. And droughts cut harvests to 3.8M tons vs 16.5M last year.
IKAR: July wheat exports may hit a 17-year low — just 2M tons. And droughts cut harvests to 3.8M tons vs 16.5M last year.
4/To save internal stability, the Central Bank cut its key rate to 18%. It’s not a growth — it’s a lifeline for agro giants now starved of export revenue.
Russia hopes Africa and South Asia will offset the loss. But those markets pay in barter or political IOUs. No hard currency, no short-term fix.
Russia hopes Africa and South Asia will offset the loss. But those markets pay in barter or political IOUs. No hard currency, no short-term fix.
July 25, 2025 at 2:36 PM
4/To save internal stability, the Central Bank cut its key rate to 18%. It’s not a growth — it’s a lifeline for agro giants now starved of export revenue.
Russia hopes Africa and South Asia will offset the loss. But those markets pay in barter or political IOUs. No hard currency, no short-term fix.
Russia hopes Africa and South Asia will offset the loss. But those markets pay in barter or political IOUs. No hard currency, no short-term fix.
3/At BRICS and SPIEF, the Kremlin pushed a “grain initiative” for the Global South. But they refused. Most BRICS states are food exporters or buy from Russia’s rivals.
Even deep price dumping didn’t help: Russia’s currency and logistics instability scare buyers. Cheap doesn’t mean reliable.
Even deep price dumping didn’t help: Russia’s currency and logistics instability scare buyers. Cheap doesn’t mean reliable.
July 25, 2025 at 2:36 PM
3/At BRICS and SPIEF, the Kremlin pushed a “grain initiative” for the Global South. But they refused. Most BRICS states are food exporters or buy from Russia’s rivals.
Even deep price dumping didn’t help: Russia’s currency and logistics instability scare buyers. Cheap doesn’t mean reliable.
Even deep price dumping didn’t help: Russia’s currency and logistics instability scare buyers. Cheap doesn’t mean reliable.
2/China rejected Russian wheat due to poor quality controls and avoided using sanctioned Russian banks. Instead, it ramped up imports from Canada, Australia, and Kazakhstan.
Barley exports also crashed 2.5×. Russian traders lost licenses. Ships were denied certificates and stuck in ports.
Barley exports also crashed 2.5×. Russian traders lost licenses. Ships were denied certificates and stuck in ports.
July 25, 2025 at 2:36 PM
2/China rejected Russian wheat due to poor quality controls and avoided using sanctioned Russian banks. Instead, it ramped up imports from Canada, Australia, and Kazakhstan.
Barley exports also crashed 2.5×. Russian traders lost licenses. Ships were denied certificates and stuck in ports.
Barley exports also crashed 2.5×. Russian traders lost licenses. Ships were denied certificates and stuck in ports.
You are absolutely right
June 15, 2025 at 12:04 PM
You are absolutely right
7/Russia could secure a seat at the table in eventual Israel–Iran negotiations. For the Kremlin, this is an opportunity to regain geopolitical relevance. Trump’s attention is shifting from Ukraine to the Middle East — a welcome development for Putin, given the growing domestic scrutiny over his war.
June 15, 2025 at 11:44 AM
7/Russia could secure a seat at the table in eventual Israel–Iran negotiations. For the Kremlin, this is an opportunity to regain geopolitical relevance. Trump’s attention is shifting from Ukraine to the Middle East — a welcome development for Putin, given the growing domestic scrutiny over his war.
6/Iran temporarily lost part of its oil and gas export capacity — boosting short-term demand for Russian oil in China and India. Oil prices are staying high — around $74 per barrel (Brent) — which works in Moscow’s favor.
June 15, 2025 at 11:44 AM
6/Iran temporarily lost part of its oil and gas export capacity — boosting short-term demand for Russian oil in China and India. Oil prices are staying high — around $74 per barrel (Brent) — which works in Moscow’s favor.
5/Let’s not forget: Russia has its own interests in this situation. The Iran-Israel escalation has overshadowed the G7 summit, deflecting attention from new anti-Russian sanctions. Even the U.S. held off on lowering the oil price cap — at least for now.
June 15, 2025 at 11:44 AM
5/Let’s not forget: Russia has its own interests in this situation. The Iran-Israel escalation has overshadowed the G7 summit, deflecting attention from new anti-Russian sanctions. Even the U.S. held off on lowering the oil price cap — at least for now.
4/As one Russian MP put it: “We are helping Iran with technology and air defense systems — things it critically needs right now.” In other words, post-conflict aid, not immediate escalation.In parallel, Iran is preparing for negotiations — involving the U.S., Europe, and possibly Russia.
June 15, 2025 at 11:44 AM
4/As one Russian MP put it: “We are helping Iran with technology and air defense systems — things it critically needs right now.” In other words, post-conflict aid, not immediate escalation.In parallel, Iran is preparing for negotiations — involving the U.S., Europe, and possibly Russia.
3/As a result, Putin limits himself to vague statements about “serious concern” and offers to mediate.
Here’s where things currently stand: the bet is on a short, sharp conflict. Israel is moving fast to cripple Iran’s strategic infrastructure. Russia, meanwhile, stays out of direct involvement.
Here’s where things currently stand: the bet is on a short, sharp conflict. Israel is moving fast to cripple Iran’s strategic infrastructure. Russia, meanwhile, stays out of direct involvement.
June 15, 2025 at 11:44 AM
3/As a result, Putin limits himself to vague statements about “serious concern” and offers to mediate.
Here’s where things currently stand: the bet is on a short, sharp conflict. Israel is moving fast to cripple Iran’s strategic infrastructure. Russia, meanwhile, stays out of direct involvement.
Here’s where things currently stand: the bet is on a short, sharp conflict. Israel is moving fast to cripple Iran’s strategic infrastructure. Russia, meanwhile, stays out of direct involvement.
2/Still, any military assistance right now would almost certainly provoke Trump’s anger. That’s a given. That’s precisely why Trump calls Putin, sending a clear message: Russian interference will only deepen the crisis and bring nothing good for the Kremlin.
June 15, 2025 at 11:44 AM
2/Still, any military assistance right now would almost certainly provoke Trump’s anger. That’s a given. That’s precisely why Trump calls Putin, sending a clear message: Russian interference will only deepen the crisis and bring nothing good for the Kremlin.
They have already done it. But Hungary has investments from China...
June 11, 2025 at 12:21 PM
They have already done it. But Hungary has investments from China...
9/That said, parts of this scenario could become irrelevant if Trump and Musk strike a truce — or if both realize the mutual damage they’re inflicting and tone things down. But the point is, the wedge has been driven — and that’s good news for anyone hoping for a bit more stability and less chaos.
June 10, 2025 at 8:52 AM
9/That said, parts of this scenario could become irrelevant if Trump and Musk strike a truce — or if both realize the mutual damage they’re inflicting and tone things down. But the point is, the wedge has been driven — and that’s good news for anyone hoping for a bit more stability and less chaos.
8/➡️Trump has also lost a key media amplifier for promoting his narratives —especially those aimed at far-right movements in Europe. That doesn't mean support will stop, but Musk is no longer acting in alignment with the administration. Note that J.D. Vance is beginning to take over some of that role
June 10, 2025 at 8:52 AM
8/➡️Trump has also lost a key media amplifier for promoting his narratives —especially those aimed at far-right movements in Europe. That doesn't mean support will stop, but Musk is no longer acting in alignment with the administration. Note that J.D. Vance is beginning to take over some of that role
7/➡️One of the more intriguing side effects is the confusion among Republican megadonors. Some of them may start to reconsider who they support and why. A potential alternative camp is forming already — names like J.D. Vance or Lindsey Graham are increasingly mentioned.
June 10, 2025 at 8:52 AM
7/➡️One of the more intriguing side effects is the confusion among Republican megadonors. Some of them may start to reconsider who they support and why. A potential alternative camp is forming already — names like J.D. Vance or Lindsey Graham are increasingly mentioned.
6/➡️Musk’s vocal criticism of federal spending and repeated warnings about a potential default forces both parties to justify every budget item more carefully. In theory, this could slow down reckless populist policies like a hypothetical “Tariff 2.0” or unfunded welfare packages.
June 10, 2025 at 8:52 AM
6/➡️Musk’s vocal criticism of federal spending and repeated warnings about a potential default forces both parties to justify every budget item more carefully. In theory, this could slow down reckless populist policies like a hypothetical “Tariff 2.0” or unfunded welfare packages.