Conflict Capital
@conflictal.bsky.social
Analytics, war in Ukraine, all-world events. Group of Ukrainian servicemen, former Intelegence officers. Longreads
Support: patreon.com/user?u=100268319
Support: patreon.com/user?u=100268319
Pinned
Hello, everyone! We would like to thank everyone who supports us financially and continues to do so regularly. Please don't stop, we work hard and publish interesting professional analytics for you. We also run YouTube channel, which will, of course, continue.
PayPal: imak47742@gmail.com
PayPal: imak47742@gmail.com
1/Russia’s grain strategy is collapsing. In H1 2025, wheat exports to China fell 15× — from $38.9M to $2.5M. In June, Russia didn’t ship a single kilogram.
July 25, 2025 at 2:38 PM
1/Russia’s grain strategy is collapsing. In H1 2025, wheat exports to China fell 15× — from $38.9M to $2.5M. In June, Russia didn’t ship a single kilogram.
1/Will Russia Support Iran?
Many recall the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement between Moscow and Tehran. However, that document does not obligate Russia to enter a war on Iran’s behalf — only to offer support.
Many recall the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement between Moscow and Tehran. However, that document does not obligate Russia to enter a war on Iran’s behalf — only to offer support.
June 15, 2025 at 11:44 AM
1/Will Russia Support Iran?
Many recall the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement between Moscow and Tehran. However, that document does not obligate Russia to enter a war on Iran’s behalf — only to offer support.
Many recall the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement between Moscow and Tehran. However, that document does not obligate Russia to enter a war on Iran’s behalf — only to offer support.
Please, support our new video on YouTube "The Victor Orban Dilemma: Can European Union Hold the Line?"
Link: youtu.be/BbByHeHW6bE
What Orbán has done to irritate Brussels over the past year, and whether the Union can strip Budapest of its veto without breaking its own legal order.
Link: youtu.be/BbByHeHW6bE
What Orbán has done to irritate Brussels over the past year, and whether the Union can strip Budapest of its veto without breaking its own legal order.
The Victor Orban Dilemma: Can European Union Hold the Line?
YouTube video by Mr Conflictal
youtu.be
June 11, 2025 at 12:17 PM
Please, support our new video on YouTube "The Victor Orban Dilemma: Can European Union Hold the Line?"
Link: youtu.be/BbByHeHW6bE
What Orbán has done to irritate Brussels over the past year, and whether the Union can strip Budapest of its veto without breaking its own legal order.
Link: youtu.be/BbByHeHW6bE
What Orbán has done to irritate Brussels over the past year, and whether the Union can strip Budapest of its veto without breaking its own legal order.
1/Consequence from Trump&Musks Conflict
➡️Elon Musk’s dramatic break with the Trump team has handed us a new strategic tool: situational chaos. Musk can activate this at will, diverting Trump’s focus and destabilizing his messaging.
➡️Elon Musk’s dramatic break with the Trump team has handed us a new strategic tool: situational chaos. Musk can activate this at will, diverting Trump’s focus and destabilizing his messaging.
June 10, 2025 at 8:52 AM
1/Consequence from Trump&Musks Conflict
➡️Elon Musk’s dramatic break with the Trump team has handed us a new strategic tool: situational chaos. Musk can activate this at will, diverting Trump’s focus and destabilizing his messaging.
➡️Elon Musk’s dramatic break with the Trump team has handed us a new strategic tool: situational chaos. Musk can activate this at will, diverting Trump’s focus and destabilizing his messaging.
Hello, everyone! We would like to thank everyone who supports us financially and continues to do so regularly. Please don't stop, we work hard and publish interesting professional analytics for you. We also run YouTube channel, which will, of course, continue.
PayPal: imak47742@gmail.com
PayPal: imak47742@gmail.com
June 9, 2025 at 10:14 AM
Hello, everyone! We would like to thank everyone who supports us financially and continues to do so regularly. Please don't stop, we work hard and publish interesting professional analytics for you. We also run YouTube channel, which will, of course, continue.
PayPal: imak47742@gmail.com
PayPal: imak47742@gmail.com
1/OPEC+ Is Reshaping Russia’s Oil Economy
Over the past several months, Kazakhstan has consistently exceeded its production quota. The country’s new energy minister openly declared that Kazakhstan will "act in its national interest."
Over the past several months, Kazakhstan has consistently exceeded its production quota. The country’s new energy minister openly declared that Kazakhstan will "act in its national interest."
June 5, 2025 at 12:36 PM
1/OPEC+ Is Reshaping Russia’s Oil Economy
Over the past several months, Kazakhstan has consistently exceeded its production quota. The country’s new energy minister openly declared that Kazakhstan will "act in its national interest."
Over the past several months, Kazakhstan has consistently exceeded its production quota. The country’s new energy minister openly declared that Kazakhstan will "act in its national interest."
Please support my video about Russian shadow fleet and how Moscow uses it as a critical tool to keep the war economy afloat.
Link: youtu.be/2wWRJ1wAhL4
In this video, I break down how it operates, why it matters, and how the West might finally shut it down. You are welcome
Link: youtu.be/2wWRJ1wAhL4
In this video, I break down how it operates, why it matters, and how the West might finally shut it down. You are welcome
Everything about Russian Shadow Fleet
YouTube video by Mr Conflictal
youtu.be
June 2, 2025 at 5:11 PM
Please support my video about Russian shadow fleet and how Moscow uses it as a critical tool to keep the war economy afloat.
Link: youtu.be/2wWRJ1wAhL4
In this video, I break down how it operates, why it matters, and how the West might finally shut it down. You are welcome
Link: youtu.be/2wWRJ1wAhL4
In this video, I break down how it operates, why it matters, and how the West might finally shut it down. You are welcome
1/Polish Elections: A Setback for Pro-European Forces?
- Rafał Trzaskowski, the favored candidate from the Civic Platform (Tusk’s party), secured 49.11%
- Karol Nawrocki, the candidate backed by Law and Justice (PiS), won with 50.89%
- Rafał Trzaskowski, the favored candidate from the Civic Platform (Tusk’s party), secured 49.11%
- Karol Nawrocki, the candidate backed by Law and Justice (PiS), won with 50.89%
June 2, 2025 at 10:20 AM
1/Polish Elections: A Setback for Pro-European Forces?
- Rafał Trzaskowski, the favored candidate from the Civic Platform (Tusk’s party), secured 49.11%
- Karol Nawrocki, the candidate backed by Law and Justice (PiS), won with 50.89%
- Rafał Trzaskowski, the favored candidate from the Civic Platform (Tusk’s party), secured 49.11%
- Karol Nawrocki, the candidate backed by Law and Justice (PiS), won with 50.89%
1/One of the recurring themes here has been how to “calm down Putin’s buddies in Europe.” If you're new, I recommend reviewing earlier posts for context.
Back in March, we discussed Friedrich Merz’s so-called plan to block Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán…
Back in March, we discussed Friedrich Merz’s so-called plan to block Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán…
May 27, 2025 at 10:05 AM
1/One of the recurring themes here has been how to “calm down Putin’s buddies in Europe.” If you're new, I recommend reviewing earlier posts for context.
Back in March, we discussed Friedrich Merz’s so-called plan to block Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán…
Back in March, we discussed Friedrich Merz’s so-called plan to block Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán…
1/The EU has just approved its 17th package of sanctions against Russia, with a sharp focus on the so-called “shadow fleet” — specifically, 189 tankers used to circumvent restrictions on Russian oil and gas exports. The European Commission is now moving from statements to action.
May 23, 2025 at 1:19 PM
1/The EU has just approved its 17th package of sanctions against Russia, with a sharp focus on the so-called “shadow fleet” — specifically, 189 tankers used to circumvent restrictions on Russian oil and gas exports. The European Commission is now moving from statements to action.
1/Pokrovsk and Lyman Sectors
Currently, the most critical axes of the front are Pokrovsk (434 engagements) and Lyman (152 engagements). The situation near Pokrovsk is dire. Russian forces are conducting dozens of assaults daily, stretching from Novomykolaivka to Zoria, supported by massed FPV.
Currently, the most critical axes of the front are Pokrovsk (434 engagements) and Lyman (152 engagements). The situation near Pokrovsk is dire. Russian forces are conducting dozens of assaults daily, stretching from Novomykolaivka to Zoria, supported by massed FPV.
May 23, 2025 at 1:02 PM
1/Pokrovsk and Lyman Sectors
Currently, the most critical axes of the front are Pokrovsk (434 engagements) and Lyman (152 engagements). The situation near Pokrovsk is dire. Russian forces are conducting dozens of assaults daily, stretching from Novomykolaivka to Zoria, supported by massed FPV.
Currently, the most critical axes of the front are Pokrovsk (434 engagements) and Lyman (152 engagements). The situation near Pokrovsk is dire. Russian forces are conducting dozens of assaults daily, stretching from Novomykolaivka to Zoria, supported by massed FPV.
1/Maliuk vs. Kostyukov: What Istanbul Tells Us About the Kremlin's Playbook
Reflections on the diplomatic showdown — and why it feels like 2022 all over again.
Reflections on the diplomatic showdown — and why it feels like 2022 all over again.
May 15, 2025 at 11:21 AM
1/Maliuk vs. Kostyukov: What Istanbul Tells Us About the Kremlin's Playbook
Reflections on the diplomatic showdown — and why it feels like 2022 all over again.
Reflections on the diplomatic showdown — and why it feels like 2022 all over again.
1/ "Zelenskyy heads to Istanbul for talks with Putin. Russia may send Lavrov and Ushakov to push a ceasefire and buy time. Trump’s stance looms large as tensions rise"
The key point of this meeting is its influence on the American side, more specifically—on Trump.
The key point of this meeting is its influence on the American side, more specifically—on Trump.
May 14, 2025 at 10:13 AM
1/ "Zelenskyy heads to Istanbul for talks with Putin. Russia may send Lavrov and Ushakov to push a ceasefire and buy time. Trump’s stance looms large as tensions rise"
The key point of this meeting is its influence on the American side, more specifically—on Trump.
The key point of this meeting is its influence on the American side, more specifically—on Trump.
Please support my video about Trump`s “shadow team” and their plans to restore commercial ties with Russia.
Link: youtu.be/VgHWeWaQyUA
I made it easier for you to earn information and insights through video material. You are welcom
Link: youtu.be/VgHWeWaQyUA
I made it easier for you to earn information and insights through video material. You are welcom
Trump`s “shadow team” and their plans to restore commercial ties with Russia
YouTube video by Mr Conflictal
youtu.be
May 13, 2025 at 6:18 AM
Please support my video about Trump`s “shadow team” and their plans to restore commercial ties with Russia.
Link: youtu.be/VgHWeWaQyUA
I made it easier for you to earn information and insights through video material. You are welcom
Link: youtu.be/VgHWeWaQyUA
I made it easier for you to earn information and insights through video material. You are welcom
1/What’s Really Happening with AfD and Germany’s Political Landscape? The rise of the AfD isn’t just a threat to German democracy — it’s part of a broader European trend where far-right forces challenge the legitimacy of established institutions. Unlike who operates within the system, AfD rejects it
May 12, 2025 at 7:18 AM
1/What’s Really Happening with AfD and Germany’s Political Landscape? The rise of the AfD isn’t just a threat to German democracy — it’s part of a broader European trend where far-right forces challenge the legitimacy of established institutions. Unlike who operates within the system, AfD rejects it
1/Mertz is in trouble
➡️Now, Friedrich Merz failed to be elected as Chancellor in the first round. Let me clarify right away: this doesn’t mean he won’t be elected in the 2nd or 3rd round. But the fact remains—Merz’s approval ratings are quite low and have only declined since the Bundestag elections.
➡️Now, Friedrich Merz failed to be elected as Chancellor in the first round. Let me clarify right away: this doesn’t mean he won’t be elected in the 2nd or 3rd round. But the fact remains—Merz’s approval ratings are quite low and have only declined since the Bundestag elections.
May 6, 2025 at 8:54 AM
1/Mertz is in trouble
➡️Now, Friedrich Merz failed to be elected as Chancellor in the first round. Let me clarify right away: this doesn’t mean he won’t be elected in the 2nd or 3rd round. But the fact remains—Merz’s approval ratings are quite low and have only declined since the Bundestag elections.
➡️Now, Friedrich Merz failed to be elected as Chancellor in the first round. Let me clarify right away: this doesn’t mean he won’t be elected in the 2nd or 3rd round. But the fact remains—Merz’s approval ratings are quite low and have only declined since the Bundestag elections.
1/Positive Signs from the Trump Administration
Steve Witkoff was not appointed National Security Advisor—a noteworthy decision. In addition, a recent article reveals growing unease within Trump’s inner circle over what many view as an overly conciliatory approach toward Russia and the Middle East.
Steve Witkoff was not appointed National Security Advisor—a noteworthy decision. In addition, a recent article reveals growing unease within Trump’s inner circle over what many view as an overly conciliatory approach toward Russia and the Middle East.
May 6, 2025 at 6:41 AM
1/Positive Signs from the Trump Administration
Steve Witkoff was not appointed National Security Advisor—a noteworthy decision. In addition, a recent article reveals growing unease within Trump’s inner circle over what many view as an overly conciliatory approach toward Russia and the Middle East.
Steve Witkoff was not appointed National Security Advisor—a noteworthy decision. In addition, a recent article reveals growing unease within Trump’s inner circle over what many view as an overly conciliatory approach toward Russia and the Middle East.
1/Russia infiltrated Romania's Presidential Elections. Simion Leads the Race
The results of the first round of Romania's presidential election are in. Advancing to the runoff:
🛑 George Simion (pro-Russian candidate from the AUR party) — 40.94%
🛑 Nicuşor Dan (pro-European mayor of Bucharest) — 20.99%
The results of the first round of Romania's presidential election are in. Advancing to the runoff:
🛑 George Simion (pro-Russian candidate from the AUR party) — 40.94%
🛑 Nicuşor Dan (pro-European mayor of Bucharest) — 20.99%
May 6, 2025 at 6:31 AM
1/Russia infiltrated Romania's Presidential Elections. Simion Leads the Race
The results of the first round of Romania's presidential election are in. Advancing to the runoff:
🛑 George Simion (pro-Russian candidate from the AUR party) — 40.94%
🛑 Nicuşor Dan (pro-European mayor of Bucharest) — 20.99%
The results of the first round of Romania's presidential election are in. Advancing to the runoff:
🛑 George Simion (pro-Russian candidate from the AUR party) — 40.94%
🛑 Nicuşor Dan (pro-European mayor of Bucharest) — 20.99%
1/ Iran–US nuclear talks: where do things really stand? Tehran delays, Washington weakens, Russia rises. Full update thread 👇
April 28, 2025 at 6:03 PM
1/ Iran–US nuclear talks: where do things really stand? Tehran delays, Washington weakens, Russia rises. Full update thread 👇
1/Kashmir is heating up again: shootings, retaliations, and rising tensions. What’s really happening — and why it matters for Ukraine and the world? A full thread 👇
April 26, 2025 at 9:19 AM
1/Kashmir is heating up again: shootings, retaliations, and rising tensions. What’s really happening — and why it matters for Ukraine and the world? A full thread 👇
Support my new analytical video about а game-changing moment, which came on April 18 with a high-level meeting in Paris that may pave the way for a new negotiation track. This event will involve deeper engagement from European countries into Russia-Ukraine peace plan.
Link: youtu.be/gbT14oimsLU
Link: youtu.be/gbT14oimsLU
Trump's peace plan has failed in Europe. Rubio seizes the initiative
YouTube video by Mr Conflictal
youtu.be
April 25, 2025 at 10:20 AM
Support my new analytical video about а game-changing moment, which came on April 18 with a high-level meeting in Paris that may pave the way for a new negotiation track. This event will involve deeper engagement from European countries into Russia-Ukraine peace plan.
Link: youtu.be/gbT14oimsLU
Link: youtu.be/gbT14oimsLU
1/How Giorgia Meloni Is Positioning Herself as a Bridge Between the EU and the US
Some comments may have painted Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni as a disruptive force in European politics — from her resistance to Estonia’s ammunition initiative to Italy’s wavering stance on US tariffs.
Some comments may have painted Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni as a disruptive force in European politics — from her resistance to Estonia’s ammunition initiative to Italy’s wavering stance on US tariffs.
April 25, 2025 at 7:27 AM
1/How Giorgia Meloni Is Positioning Herself as a Bridge Between the EU and the US
Some comments may have painted Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni as a disruptive force in European politics — from her resistance to Estonia’s ammunition initiative to Italy’s wavering stance on US tariffs.
Some comments may have painted Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni as a disruptive force in European politics — from her resistance to Estonia’s ammunition initiative to Italy’s wavering stance on US tariffs.
We present you our comprehensive research on the topic: Main trends in the development of the Russian military-industrial complex in the Ⅰ quarter of 2025.
Link: medium.com/@conflict.ca...
It offers research for UAV, EW, air defence systems and combat vehicles.
Link: medium.com/@conflict.ca...
It offers research for UAV, EW, air defence systems and combat vehicles.
Main trends in the development of the Russian military-industrial complex in the Ⅰ quarter of 2025
Russia’s armored fleet is being replenished mainly through the reactivation of Soviet-era vehicles from storage — over 3,500 units.
https://medium.com/@conflict.capital/main-trends-in-the-development-of-the-russian-military-industrial-complex-in-the-ⅰ-quarter-of-2025-d1d1549ae392
April 24, 2025 at 2:36 PM
We present you our comprehensive research on the topic: Main trends in the development of the Russian military-industrial complex in the Ⅰ quarter of 2025.
Link: medium.com/@conflict.ca...
It offers research for UAV, EW, air defence systems and combat vehicles.
Link: medium.com/@conflict.ca...
It offers research for UAV, EW, air defence systems and combat vehicles.
EU, please, don‘t stop
April 24, 2025 at 8:35 AM
EU, please, don‘t stop
1/Trump Shifts Course Again — The “Peace Plan” Is Off the Table
Just days ago Trump teased a headline-grabbing statement: “I’ll unveil a peace plan for Ukraine in three days”. But what’s unfolding now confirms what I argued after the Paris meeting: the so-called "peace plan" was never meant to last.
Just days ago Trump teased a headline-grabbing statement: “I’ll unveil a peace plan for Ukraine in three days”. But what’s unfolding now confirms what I argued after the Paris meeting: the so-called "peace plan" was never meant to last.
April 24, 2025 at 6:23 AM
1/Trump Shifts Course Again — The “Peace Plan” Is Off the Table
Just days ago Trump teased a headline-grabbing statement: “I’ll unveil a peace plan for Ukraine in three days”. But what’s unfolding now confirms what I argued after the Paris meeting: the so-called "peace plan" was never meant to last.
Just days ago Trump teased a headline-grabbing statement: “I’ll unveil a peace plan for Ukraine in three days”. But what’s unfolding now confirms what I argued after the Paris meeting: the so-called "peace plan" was never meant to last.