Conflict Capital
@conflictal.bsky.social
Analytics, war in Ukraine, all-world events. Group of Ukrainian servicemen, former Intelegence officers. Longreads
Support: patreon.com/user?u=100268319
Support: patreon.com/user?u=100268319
1/Russia’s grain strategy is collapsing. In H1 2025, wheat exports to China fell 15× — from $38.9M to $2.5M. In June, Russia didn’t ship a single kilogram.
July 25, 2025 at 2:38 PM
1/Russia’s grain strategy is collapsing. In H1 2025, wheat exports to China fell 15× — from $38.9M to $2.5M. In June, Russia didn’t ship a single kilogram.
6/Russia can’t sell itself as a food donor anymore. It’s not a leader — it’s struggling to stay relevant.
July 25, 2025 at 2:36 PM
6/Russia can’t sell itself as a food donor anymore. It’s not a leader — it’s struggling to stay relevant.
1/Will Russia Support Iran?
Many recall the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement between Moscow and Tehran. However, that document does not obligate Russia to enter a war on Iran’s behalf — only to offer support.
Many recall the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement between Moscow and Tehran. However, that document does not obligate Russia to enter a war on Iran’s behalf — only to offer support.
June 15, 2025 at 11:44 AM
1/Will Russia Support Iran?
Many recall the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement between Moscow and Tehran. However, that document does not obligate Russia to enter a war on Iran’s behalf — only to offer support.
Many recall the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement between Moscow and Tehran. However, that document does not obligate Russia to enter a war on Iran’s behalf — only to offer support.
1/Consequence from Trump&Musks Conflict
➡️Elon Musk’s dramatic break with the Trump team has handed us a new strategic tool: situational chaos. Musk can activate this at will, diverting Trump’s focus and destabilizing his messaging.
➡️Elon Musk’s dramatic break with the Trump team has handed us a new strategic tool: situational chaos. Musk can activate this at will, diverting Trump’s focus and destabilizing his messaging.
June 10, 2025 at 8:52 AM
1/Consequence from Trump&Musks Conflict
➡️Elon Musk’s dramatic break with the Trump team has handed us a new strategic tool: situational chaos. Musk can activate this at will, diverting Trump’s focus and destabilizing his messaging.
➡️Elon Musk’s dramatic break with the Trump team has handed us a new strategic tool: situational chaos. Musk can activate this at will, diverting Trump’s focus and destabilizing his messaging.
1/OPEC+ Is Reshaping Russia’s Oil Economy
Over the past several months, Kazakhstan has consistently exceeded its production quota. The country’s new energy minister openly declared that Kazakhstan will "act in its national interest."
Over the past several months, Kazakhstan has consistently exceeded its production quota. The country’s new energy minister openly declared that Kazakhstan will "act in its national interest."
June 5, 2025 at 12:36 PM
1/OPEC+ Is Reshaping Russia’s Oil Economy
Over the past several months, Kazakhstan has consistently exceeded its production quota. The country’s new energy minister openly declared that Kazakhstan will "act in its national interest."
Over the past several months, Kazakhstan has consistently exceeded its production quota. The country’s new energy minister openly declared that Kazakhstan will "act in its national interest."
1/Polish Elections: A Setback for Pro-European Forces?
- Rafał Trzaskowski, the favored candidate from the Civic Platform (Tusk’s party), secured 49.11%
- Karol Nawrocki, the candidate backed by Law and Justice (PiS), won with 50.89%
- Rafał Trzaskowski, the favored candidate from the Civic Platform (Tusk’s party), secured 49.11%
- Karol Nawrocki, the candidate backed by Law and Justice (PiS), won with 50.89%
June 2, 2025 at 10:20 AM
1/Polish Elections: A Setback for Pro-European Forces?
- Rafał Trzaskowski, the favored candidate from the Civic Platform (Tusk’s party), secured 49.11%
- Karol Nawrocki, the candidate backed by Law and Justice (PiS), won with 50.89%
- Rafał Trzaskowski, the favored candidate from the Civic Platform (Tusk’s party), secured 49.11%
- Karol Nawrocki, the candidate backed by Law and Justice (PiS), won with 50.89%
1/One of the recurring themes here has been how to “calm down Putin’s buddies in Europe.” If you're new, I recommend reviewing earlier posts for context.
Back in March, we discussed Friedrich Merz’s so-called plan to block Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán…
Back in March, we discussed Friedrich Merz’s so-called plan to block Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán…
May 27, 2025 at 10:05 AM
1/One of the recurring themes here has been how to “calm down Putin’s buddies in Europe.” If you're new, I recommend reviewing earlier posts for context.
Back in March, we discussed Friedrich Merz’s so-called plan to block Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán…
Back in March, we discussed Friedrich Merz’s so-called plan to block Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán…
1/The EU has just approved its 17th package of sanctions against Russia, with a sharp focus on the so-called “shadow fleet” — specifically, 189 tankers used to circumvent restrictions on Russian oil and gas exports. The European Commission is now moving from statements to action.
May 23, 2025 at 1:19 PM
1/The EU has just approved its 17th package of sanctions against Russia, with a sharp focus on the so-called “shadow fleet” — specifically, 189 tankers used to circumvent restrictions on Russian oil and gas exports. The European Commission is now moving from statements to action.
1/Pokrovsk and Lyman Sectors
Currently, the most critical axes of the front are Pokrovsk (434 engagements) and Lyman (152 engagements). The situation near Pokrovsk is dire. Russian forces are conducting dozens of assaults daily, stretching from Novomykolaivka to Zoria, supported by massed FPV.
Currently, the most critical axes of the front are Pokrovsk (434 engagements) and Lyman (152 engagements). The situation near Pokrovsk is dire. Russian forces are conducting dozens of assaults daily, stretching from Novomykolaivka to Zoria, supported by massed FPV.
May 23, 2025 at 1:02 PM
1/Pokrovsk and Lyman Sectors
Currently, the most critical axes of the front are Pokrovsk (434 engagements) and Lyman (152 engagements). The situation near Pokrovsk is dire. Russian forces are conducting dozens of assaults daily, stretching from Novomykolaivka to Zoria, supported by massed FPV.
Currently, the most critical axes of the front are Pokrovsk (434 engagements) and Lyman (152 engagements). The situation near Pokrovsk is dire. Russian forces are conducting dozens of assaults daily, stretching from Novomykolaivka to Zoria, supported by massed FPV.
10/It’s 2022 diplomacy all over again — only this time, Ukraine has learned how to counter the illusion.
May 15, 2025 at 11:21 AM
10/It’s 2022 diplomacy all over again — only this time, Ukraine has learned how to counter the illusion.
1/ "Zelenskyy heads to Istanbul for talks with Putin. Russia may send Lavrov and Ushakov to push a ceasefire and buy time. Trump’s stance looms large as tensions rise"
The key point of this meeting is its influence on the American side, more specifically—on Trump.
The key point of this meeting is its influence on the American side, more specifically—on Trump.
May 14, 2025 at 10:13 AM
1/ "Zelenskyy heads to Istanbul for talks with Putin. Russia may send Lavrov and Ushakov to push a ceasefire and buy time. Trump’s stance looms large as tensions rise"
The key point of this meeting is its influence on the American side, more specifically—on Trump.
The key point of this meeting is its influence on the American side, more specifically—on Trump.
1/What’s Really Happening with AfD and Germany’s Political Landscape? The rise of the AfD isn’t just a threat to German democracy — it’s part of a broader European trend where far-right forces challenge the legitimacy of established institutions. Unlike who operates within the system, AfD rejects it
May 12, 2025 at 7:18 AM
1/What’s Really Happening with AfD and Germany’s Political Landscape? The rise of the AfD isn’t just a threat to German democracy — it’s part of a broader European trend where far-right forces challenge the legitimacy of established institutions. Unlike who operates within the system, AfD rejects it
1/Mertz is in trouble
➡️Now, Friedrich Merz failed to be elected as Chancellor in the first round. Let me clarify right away: this doesn’t mean he won’t be elected in the 2nd or 3rd round. But the fact remains—Merz’s approval ratings are quite low and have only declined since the Bundestag elections.
➡️Now, Friedrich Merz failed to be elected as Chancellor in the first round. Let me clarify right away: this doesn’t mean he won’t be elected in the 2nd or 3rd round. But the fact remains—Merz’s approval ratings are quite low and have only declined since the Bundestag elections.
May 6, 2025 at 8:54 AM
1/Mertz is in trouble
➡️Now, Friedrich Merz failed to be elected as Chancellor in the first round. Let me clarify right away: this doesn’t mean he won’t be elected in the 2nd or 3rd round. But the fact remains—Merz’s approval ratings are quite low and have only declined since the Bundestag elections.
➡️Now, Friedrich Merz failed to be elected as Chancellor in the first round. Let me clarify right away: this doesn’t mean he won’t be elected in the 2nd or 3rd round. But the fact remains—Merz’s approval ratings are quite low and have only declined since the Bundestag elections.
1/Positive Signs from the Trump Administration
Steve Witkoff was not appointed National Security Advisor—a noteworthy decision. In addition, a recent article reveals growing unease within Trump’s inner circle over what many view as an overly conciliatory approach toward Russia and the Middle East.
Steve Witkoff was not appointed National Security Advisor—a noteworthy decision. In addition, a recent article reveals growing unease within Trump’s inner circle over what many view as an overly conciliatory approach toward Russia and the Middle East.
May 6, 2025 at 6:41 AM
1/Positive Signs from the Trump Administration
Steve Witkoff was not appointed National Security Advisor—a noteworthy decision. In addition, a recent article reveals growing unease within Trump’s inner circle over what many view as an overly conciliatory approach toward Russia and the Middle East.
Steve Witkoff was not appointed National Security Advisor—a noteworthy decision. In addition, a recent article reveals growing unease within Trump’s inner circle over what many view as an overly conciliatory approach toward Russia and the Middle East.
1/Russia infiltrated Romania's Presidential Elections. Simion Leads the Race
The results of the first round of Romania's presidential election are in. Advancing to the runoff:
🛑 George Simion (pro-Russian candidate from the AUR party) — 40.94%
🛑 Nicuşor Dan (pro-European mayor of Bucharest) — 20.99%
The results of the first round of Romania's presidential election are in. Advancing to the runoff:
🛑 George Simion (pro-Russian candidate from the AUR party) — 40.94%
🛑 Nicuşor Dan (pro-European mayor of Bucharest) — 20.99%
May 6, 2025 at 6:31 AM
1/Russia infiltrated Romania's Presidential Elections. Simion Leads the Race
The results of the first round of Romania's presidential election are in. Advancing to the runoff:
🛑 George Simion (pro-Russian candidate from the AUR party) — 40.94%
🛑 Nicuşor Dan (pro-European mayor of Bucharest) — 20.99%
The results of the first round of Romania's presidential election are in. Advancing to the runoff:
🛑 George Simion (pro-Russian candidate from the AUR party) — 40.94%
🛑 Nicuşor Dan (pro-European mayor of Bucharest) — 20.99%
1/ Iran–US nuclear talks: where do things really stand? Tehran delays, Washington weakens, Russia rises. Full update thread 👇
April 28, 2025 at 6:03 PM
1/ Iran–US nuclear talks: where do things really stand? Tehran delays, Washington weakens, Russia rises. Full update thread 👇
1/Kashmir is heating up again: shootings, retaliations, and rising tensions. What’s really happening — and why it matters for Ukraine and the world? A full thread 👇
April 26, 2025 at 9:19 AM
1/Kashmir is heating up again: shootings, retaliations, and rising tensions. What’s really happening — and why it matters for Ukraine and the world? A full thread 👇
1/How Giorgia Meloni Is Positioning Herself as a Bridge Between the EU and the US
Some comments may have painted Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni as a disruptive force in European politics — from her resistance to Estonia’s ammunition initiative to Italy’s wavering stance on US tariffs.
Some comments may have painted Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni as a disruptive force in European politics — from her resistance to Estonia’s ammunition initiative to Italy’s wavering stance on US tariffs.
April 25, 2025 at 7:27 AM
1/How Giorgia Meloni Is Positioning Herself as a Bridge Between the EU and the US
Some comments may have painted Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni as a disruptive force in European politics — from her resistance to Estonia’s ammunition initiative to Italy’s wavering stance on US tariffs.
Some comments may have painted Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni as a disruptive force in European politics — from her resistance to Estonia’s ammunition initiative to Italy’s wavering stance on US tariffs.
EU, please, don‘t stop
April 24, 2025 at 8:35 AM
EU, please, don‘t stop
I’d be grateful for your support on my first analytical video
youtu.be/zlw1oDzb3ts — it explores Trump’s tariffs and how they’re wreaking havoc on the global economy. Beyond that, I analyze the tariffs as part of a new global economic order that Trump is trying to build.
youtu.be/zlw1oDzb3ts — it explores Trump’s tariffs and how they’re wreaking havoc on the global economy. Beyond that, I analyze the tariffs as part of a new global economic order that Trump is trying to build.
April 22, 2025 at 6:35 AM
I’d be grateful for your support on my first analytical video
youtu.be/zlw1oDzb3ts — it explores Trump’s tariffs and how they’re wreaking havoc on the global economy. Beyond that, I analyze the tariffs as part of a new global economic order that Trump is trying to build.
youtu.be/zlw1oDzb3ts — it explores Trump’s tariffs and how they’re wreaking havoc on the global economy. Beyond that, I analyze the tariffs as part of a new global economic order that Trump is trying to build.
1/Historic Diplomacy in Paris: Witkoff Misses the Mark, Rubio Takes the Lead
Witkoff and Rubio traveled to Paris for a high-level meeting with representatives from France, Germany, the UK, and Ukraine. +Kellogg, while JD Vance was in Italy holding talks with PM Meloni.
Witkoff and Rubio traveled to Paris for a high-level meeting with representatives from France, Germany, the UK, and Ukraine. +Kellogg, while JD Vance was in Italy holding talks with PM Meloni.
April 19, 2025 at 9:36 AM
1/Historic Diplomacy in Paris: Witkoff Misses the Mark, Rubio Takes the Lead
Witkoff and Rubio traveled to Paris for a high-level meeting with representatives from France, Germany, the UK, and Ukraine. +Kellogg, while JD Vance was in Italy holding talks with PM Meloni.
Witkoff and Rubio traveled to Paris for a high-level meeting with representatives from France, Germany, the UK, and Ukraine. +Kellogg, while JD Vance was in Italy holding talks with PM Meloni.
1/The Nuclear Deal: How Iran Is Playing with Trump
Trump has reportedly given a two-month deadline — by June 2025. In an NBC News interview, he said:
“If they don’t strike a deal, there’ll be bombings like they’ve never seen.”
Trump has reportedly given a two-month deadline — by June 2025. In an NBC News interview, he said:
“If they don’t strike a deal, there’ll be bombings like they’ve never seen.”
April 16, 2025 at 9:11 AM
1/The Nuclear Deal: How Iran Is Playing with Trump
Trump has reportedly given a two-month deadline — by June 2025. In an NBC News interview, he said:
“If they don’t strike a deal, there’ll be bombings like they’ve never seen.”
Trump has reportedly given a two-month deadline — by June 2025. In an NBC News interview, he said:
“If they don’t strike a deal, there’ll be bombings like they’ve never seen.”
1/EU Ammunition Drive: Kaja Kallas Leads the Charge
Kaja Kallas:
Brussels now considers it realistic to supply Ukraine with at least two million artillery shells annually.
Kaja Kallas:
Brussels now considers it realistic to supply Ukraine with at least two million artillery shells annually.
April 15, 2025 at 1:56 PM
1/EU Ammunition Drive: Kaja Kallas Leads the Charge
Kaja Kallas:
Brussels now considers it realistic to supply Ukraine with at least two million artillery shells annually.
Kaja Kallas:
Brussels now considers it realistic to supply Ukraine with at least two million artillery shells annually.
1/Upcoming Polish Presidential Elections
On May 18, Poland will hold its presidential elections.
- Rafał Trzaskowski – the current mayor of Warsaw and the candidate from Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition - favourite. Trzaskowski is a seasoned politician who has twice won local elections under PiS.
On May 18, Poland will hold its presidential elections.
- Rafał Trzaskowski – the current mayor of Warsaw and the candidate from Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition - favourite. Trzaskowski is a seasoned politician who has twice won local elections under PiS.
April 14, 2025 at 8:28 AM
1/Upcoming Polish Presidential Elections
On May 18, Poland will hold its presidential elections.
- Rafał Trzaskowski – the current mayor of Warsaw and the candidate from Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition - favourite. Trzaskowski is a seasoned politician who has twice won local elections under PiS.
On May 18, Poland will hold its presidential elections.
- Rafał Trzaskowski – the current mayor of Warsaw and the candidate from Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition - favourite. Trzaskowski is a seasoned politician who has twice won local elections under PiS.
Key Dynamics in Romania’s Presidential Race
The recent decision to bar Georgescu from the race was the right call. Still, it had little real impact on curbing the far right — because Romanian government failed to launch significant informational campaign aimed at drawing in undecided voters.
The recent decision to bar Georgescu from the race was the right call. Still, it had little real impact on curbing the far right — because Romanian government failed to launch significant informational campaign aimed at drawing in undecided voters.
April 10, 2025 at 9:30 AM
Key Dynamics in Romania’s Presidential Race
The recent decision to bar Georgescu from the race was the right call. Still, it had little real impact on curbing the far right — because Romanian government failed to launch significant informational campaign aimed at drawing in undecided voters.
The recent decision to bar Georgescu from the race was the right call. Still, it had little real impact on curbing the far right — because Romanian government failed to launch significant informational campaign aimed at drawing in undecided voters.