Manuel Excel
@colintj.bsky.social
“A mainstay of charts and graphs twitter” - MGo “Top-notch, safe, family-friendly heckler” - Benetti
I guess I can't really speak to, like, micro motivations for this stuff, but to me the economy looks plenty anchored to me. Obviously this is backward looking but if there are leading indicators of these proxies for the nominal economy either crashing or skyrocketing, I'm unfamiliar with them.
November 6, 2025 at 6:07 PM
I guess I can't really speak to, like, micro motivations for this stuff, but to me the economy looks plenty anchored to me. Obviously this is backward looking but if there are leading indicators of these proxies for the nominal economy either crashing or skyrocketing, I'm unfamiliar with them.
Metcalf here tho is more concerning. He’s not in the fit and has to take all of 2 vertical and instead he’s watching the run fake. The play design + pressure means the deep safeties can help cover up the gaffe.
Kind of stuff we’ve seen from the vet safeties all year, unfortunately.
Kind of stuff we’ve seen from the vet safeties all year, unfortunately.
October 29, 2025 at 2:49 AM
Metcalf here tho is more concerning. He’s not in the fit and has to take all of 2 vertical and instead he’s watching the run fake. The play design + pressure means the deep safeties can help cover up the gaffe.
Kind of stuff we’ve seen from the vet safeties all year, unfortunately.
Kind of stuff we’ve seen from the vet safeties all year, unfortunately.
Two weeks in a row UM’s gotten beat badly in their Zeus call playing C2 to the field against a star WR at 1 bc the Nickel doesn’t do their job.
Last week Young’s technique wasn’t mature enough, something he’ll improve on.
Last week Young’s technique wasn’t mature enough, something he’ll improve on.
October 29, 2025 at 2:45 AM
Two weeks in a row UM’s gotten beat badly in their Zeus call playing C2 to the field against a star WR at 1 bc the Nickel doesn’t do their job.
Last week Young’s technique wasn’t mature enough, something he’ll improve on.
Last week Young’s technique wasn’t mature enough, something he’ll improve on.
Aside from Zeke not doing better, problem here is weak LB (Bowles?). He needs to be able to keep leverage on 2 if this turns into a wheel route but he should do that while getting depth. Rule is take away deep, let the ball bring you short.
Bowles been poor at this stuff all year.
Bowles been poor at this stuff all year.
October 28, 2025 at 4:03 AM
Aside from Zeke not doing better, problem here is weak LB (Bowles?). He needs to be able to keep leverage on 2 if this turns into a wheel route but he should do that while getting depth. Rule is take away deep, let the ball bring you short.
Bowles been poor at this stuff all year.
Bowles been poor at this stuff all year.
Jason Eck turned Idaho around immediately after they’d been shit for 2 decades and now he’s already got New Mexico even with Wisconsin.
October 26, 2025 at 3:52 PM
Jason Eck turned Idaho around immediately after they’d been shit for 2 decades and now he’s already got New Mexico even with Wisconsin.
OU’s O when they can’t just spam Q run and expect success is unsurprisingly much worse. Think Mateer’s injury a big factor, sure seems like a before/after. And he’s used to being able to run a ton.
Reminiscent of Sean Clifford.
Reminiscent of Sean Clifford.
October 25, 2025 at 5:38 PM
OU’s O when they can’t just spam Q run and expect success is unsurprisingly much worse. Think Mateer’s injury a big factor, sure seems like a before/after. And he’s used to being able to run a ton.
Reminiscent of Sean Clifford.
Reminiscent of Sean Clifford.
Most aggravating non-Jordan Young division is this Creeper where Marshall (young but not Young) gets his assignment wrong.
Can see Iwunnah is on a contain rush path.
Hausmann is also way too occupied with Boston weak, he doesn’t have to match that. Between those 2, the route is prob covered.
Can see Iwunnah is on a contain rush path.
Hausmann is also way too occupied with Boston weak, he doesn’t have to match that. Between those 2, the route is prob covered.
October 21, 2025 at 4:01 AM
Most aggravating non-Jordan Young division is this Creeper where Marshall (young but not Young) gets his assignment wrong.
Can see Iwunnah is on a contain rush path.
Hausmann is also way too occupied with Boston weak, he doesn’t have to match that. Between those 2, the route is prob covered.
Can see Iwunnah is on a contain rush path.
Hausmann is also way too occupied with Boston weak, he doesn’t have to match that. Between those 2, the route is prob covered.
This is the most Winkified version. 5-1-5 rush package. The coverage is just quarters but Metcalf drops the wrong way. Prob bc that’s where he’s used to dropping. Clear hole in the coverage to the Trey where he should be.
Could be that Barham is supposed to get there but that’s worse.
Could be that Barham is supposed to get there but that’s worse.
October 21, 2025 at 3:58 AM
This is the most Winkified version. 5-1-5 rush package. The coverage is just quarters but Metcalf drops the wrong way. Prob bc that’s where he’s used to dropping. Clear hole in the coverage to the Trey where he should be.
Could be that Barham is supposed to get there but that’s worse.
Could be that Barham is supposed to get there but that’s worse.
TIL Vic Fangio is a Milford man
October 21, 2025 at 1:55 AM
TIL Vic Fangio is a Milford man
Michigan has been deploying Zeus against OSU since Mac and it's one of Fangio's "always ready" calls.
October 19, 2025 at 7:06 PM
Michigan has been deploying Zeus against OSU since Mac and it's one of Fangio's "always ready" calls.
Wink has blitzed on 3 of the first 23 plays. WAY less than usual.
Also playing some Zeus on Boston. When Boston lines up at 1 to the field, they play C2 to the field, if he's 2 then Quarters. Play Quarters away from Boston.
Simplifying a LOT but still a major wrinkle for this opponent.
Also playing some Zeus on Boston. When Boston lines up at 1 to the field, they play C2 to the field, if he's 2 then Quarters. Play Quarters away from Boston.
Simplifying a LOT but still a major wrinkle for this opponent.
October 19, 2025 at 7:05 PM
Wink has blitzed on 3 of the first 23 plays. WAY less than usual.
Also playing some Zeus on Boston. When Boston lines up at 1 to the field, they play C2 to the field, if he's 2 then Quarters. Play Quarters away from Boston.
Simplifying a LOT but still a major wrinkle for this opponent.
Also playing some Zeus on Boston. When Boston lines up at 1 to the field, they play C2 to the field, if he's 2 then Quarters. Play Quarters away from Boston.
Simplifying a LOT but still a major wrinkle for this opponent.
Here’s Mattison’s day 1 install list from 12 years ago. Anything with a 6 in it is QQH.
Would guess Wink’s looked very similar. Prob more focus on Sub than Base (WOLV to Mattison).
Would guess Wink’s looked very similar. Prob more focus on Sub than Base (WOLV to Mattison).
October 18, 2025 at 6:47 PM
Here’s Mattison’s day 1 install list from 12 years ago. Anything with a 6 in it is QQH.
Would guess Wink’s looked very similar. Prob more focus on Sub than Base (WOLV to Mattison).
Would guess Wink’s looked very similar. Prob more focus on Sub than Base (WOLV to Mattison).
I guess people are wondering what’s up with this play. It’s clearly man, watch Ernest follow the back to 1 weak. After that it’s guess what the specific call is. If they’re supposed to be bracketing 2, Rod is lined up right
But maybe it’s 2 man but w 3 safeties? I dk.
But maybe it’s 2 man but w 3 safeties? I dk.
October 17, 2025 at 4:12 PM
I guess people are wondering what’s up with this play. It’s clearly man, watch Ernest follow the back to 1 weak. After that it’s guess what the specific call is. If they’re supposed to be bracketing 2, Rod is lined up right
But maybe it’s 2 man but w 3 safeties? I dk.
But maybe it’s 2 man but w 3 safeties? I dk.
Holy shit. On a whim I just watched their first play of the 2024 game.
October 15, 2025 at 4:36 AM
Holy shit. On a whim I just watched their first play of the 2024 game.
This is funny for sure, dude gets absolutely rocked. I think he got knocked over 4 times this game?
But yeah maybe not the kind of guy you’d be worried if your Nickel had to take on his block?
But yeah maybe not the kind of guy you’d be worried if your Nickel had to take on his block?
October 15, 2025 at 3:54 AM
This is funny for sure, dude gets absolutely rocked. I think he got knocked over 4 times this game?
But yeah maybe not the kind of guy you’d be worried if your Nickel had to take on his block?
But yeah maybe not the kind of guy you’d be worried if your Nickel had to take on his block?
There are so many different options here but I think this is my least favorite play so far.
Test yourself! What goes wrong on this play?
Test yourself! What goes wrong on this play?
October 15, 2025 at 3:13 AM
There are so many different options here but I think this is my least favorite play so far.
Test yourself! What goes wrong on this play?
Test yourself! What goes wrong on this play?
Like, this is a pretty remarkable disconnect, right? The LBs have not looked good under BJM and they were obviously better under every previous LB coach going back a long time now.
October 14, 2025 at 2:31 PM
Like, this is a pretty remarkable disconnect, right? The LBs have not looked good under BJM and they were obviously better under every previous LB coach going back a long time now.
Unsurprisingly Mattison’s Michigan playbook has similar. Wonder how long the Ryan tree has been running this stuff.
October 14, 2025 at 4:47 AM
Unsurprisingly Mattison’s Michigan playbook has similar. Wonder how long the Ryan tree has been running this stuff.
And here’s the 0 Double Rat (aka Train in the 2010 Jets playbook)
October 14, 2025 at 4:35 AM
And here’s the 0 Double Rat (aka Train in the 2010 Jets playbook)
Conveniently Michigan ran these in back to back plays in ‘22 against PSU bc we were offside on the first 3rd down. Here’s the show 0 drop into Tampa.
October 14, 2025 at 4:33 AM
Conveniently Michigan ran these in back to back plays in ‘22 against PSU bc we were offside on the first 3rd down. Here’s the show 0 drop into Tampa.
Very next play, they’re subbing their DL to STAY in 3-4 and nobody is lined up. Hillman I think is thinking that 2 is under so he’s free to help on 1. Obviously that’s not the case.
October 12, 2025 at 5:58 PM
Very next play, they’re subbing their DL to STAY in 3-4 and nobody is lined up. Hillman I think is thinking that 2 is under so he’s free to help on 1. Obviously that’s not the case.
Hausmann knows the 2 under need to DOT—Drop Off Trips. Which means push both underneath defenders toward the 3 receiver side.
But what do you do vs 4 fast? Should the backers push out and have somebody weak solve for the inside most WR? Should they check to something else? They don’t know.
But what do you do vs 4 fast? Should the backers push out and have somebody weak solve for the inside most WR? Should they check to something else? They don’t know.
October 12, 2025 at 5:37 PM
Hausmann knows the 2 under need to DOT—Drop Off Trips. Which means push both underneath defenders toward the 3 receiver side.
But what do you do vs 4 fast? Should the backers push out and have somebody weak solve for the inside most WR? Should they check to something else? They don’t know.
But what do you do vs 4 fast? Should the backers push out and have somebody weak solve for the inside most WR? Should they check to something else? They don’t know.
Here’s a good example of our guys not being given answers in their calls.
This is 3-4 vs 12 on 1st down after the 3rd and 1 that SC got into 12 for, tho I think they could’ve subbed. It’s a 4-deep 2-under fire zone.
This is 3-4 vs 12 on 1st down after the 3rd and 1 that SC got into 12 for, tho I think they could’ve subbed. It’s a 4-deep 2-under fire zone.
October 12, 2025 at 5:35 PM
Here’s a good example of our guys not being given answers in their calls.
This is 3-4 vs 12 on 1st down after the 3rd and 1 that SC got into 12 for, tho I think they could’ve subbed. It’s a 4-deep 2-under fire zone.
This is 3-4 vs 12 on 1st down after the 3rd and 1 that SC got into 12 for, tho I think they could’ve subbed. It’s a 4-deep 2-under fire zone.
I have terrible intuition for how EPA works as a function of success and explosive rate.
October 11, 2025 at 7:04 PM
I have terrible intuition for how EPA works as a function of success and explosive rate.