Dan Ciuriak
@ciuriakd.bsky.social
Usually found behind a computer, on a bike, or on the courts with a tennis racquet. If none of the above, check the local pub and stop by for a beer.
If the retailers do not pass on the tariffs to the consumers, there is no gain for American manufacturing because there will be no substitution away from imported products. Cue Bart Simpson on the chalkboard. "There's no gain without pain, there's no gain without pain, there's no...."
May 20, 2025 at 1:45 AM
If the retailers do not pass on the tariffs to the consumers, there is no gain for American manufacturing because there will be no substitution away from imported products. Cue Bart Simpson on the chalkboard. "There's no gain without pain, there's no gain without pain, there's no...."
But here is the interesting thing, this framing ignores the rest of the world. So, at a minimum, you have to expand the model to a 3-region model, Vietnam, the US, and the rest of the World. That's easily done in GSIM. So lets rerun the model in this format but with the same tariff on VN.
April 12, 2025 at 7:14 PM
But here is the interesting thing, this framing ignores the rest of the world. So, at a minimum, you have to expand the model to a 3-region model, Vietnam, the US, and the rest of the World. That's easily done in GSIM. So lets rerun the model in this format but with the same tariff on VN.
The discrepancy between lost sales by Vietnam and captured sales by the US is explained by the increase in US domestic prices, which curtail US domestic demand. US producer revenues and price markups (the producer surplus figure) increase but total economic welfare in the US is a loss of $15.8 bn
April 12, 2025 at 7:09 PM
The discrepancy between lost sales by Vietnam and captured sales by the US is explained by the increase in US domestic prices, which curtail US domestic demand. US producer revenues and price markups (the producer surplus figure) increase but total economic welfare in the US is a loss of $15.8 bn
The US ships about $15 trillion worth of goods to itself but only
$13.8 billion to Vietnam. Vietnam ships almost $119 billion to the US and about $883 billion to itself. The US tariff that stops the rip-off is 53.7%. So what happens when Trump imposes this:
$13.8 billion to Vietnam. Vietnam ships almost $119 billion to the US and about $883 billion to itself. The US tariff that stops the rip-off is 53.7%. So what happens when Trump imposes this:
April 12, 2025 at 7:01 PM
The US ships about $15 trillion worth of goods to itself but only
$13.8 billion to Vietnam. Vietnam ships almost $119 billion to the US and about $883 billion to itself. The US tariff that stops the rip-off is 53.7%. So what happens when Trump imposes this:
$13.8 billion to Vietnam. Vietnam ships almost $119 billion to the US and about $883 billion to itself. The US tariff that stops the rip-off is 53.7%. So what happens when Trump imposes this:
I take Vietnam-US trade as an example and, using reasonable estimates of parameters, calculate for illustrative purposes the tariff that stops the rip-off and what that actually means in terms of trade impacts. The chart below shows the trade relationship in a 2-country setting as the model assumes.
April 12, 2025 at 6:57 PM
I take Vietnam-US trade as an example and, using reasonable estimates of parameters, calculate for illustrative purposes the tariff that stops the rip-off and what that actually means in terms of trade impacts. The chart below shows the trade relationship in a 2-country setting as the model assumes.
This obviously is an intolerable situation once you realize it exists. Trump has taken on the job of stopping the rip-off when others are ripping off the US. It's up to other countries to stop the US from ripping them off. Whole lot of tariffs to calculate to make that happen. Enter USTR formula
April 12, 2025 at 6:50 PM
This obviously is an intolerable situation once you realize it exists. Trump has taken on the job of stopping the rip-off when others are ripping off the US. It's up to other countries to stop the US from ripping them off. Whole lot of tariffs to calculate to make that happen. Enter USTR formula
In my contribution, I show how the reciprocal trade formula works when you put it into a standard trade model. But first, let's identify the countries that rip-off the US - and the countries that the US rips off. I show the same chart for Sweden. In trade, everybody is ripping everyone off!
April 12, 2025 at 6:38 PM
In my contribution, I show how the reciprocal trade formula works when you put it into a standard trade model. But first, let's identify the countries that rip-off the US - and the countries that the US rips off. I show the same chart for Sweden. In trade, everybody is ripping everyone off!
Guernica after Hitler; and Hroza after Putin.
October 7, 2023 at 7:51 PM
Guernica after Hitler; and Hroza after Putin.