Cedric Knight 🌍
@cedric.greennet.social
Inside every cynic is an idealist struggling to get out. Yes, really.
Pedant. Tech @greennet.org.uk. Here to amplify science and join dots. #KeepItInTheGround #EndFossilFuels
Health💙 Ecology💚
🐘 @cedric@greennet.social 🦋🐦Was Cedders68
Pedant. Tech @greennet.org.uk. Here to amplify science and join dots. #KeepItInTheGround #EndFossilFuels
Health💙 Ecology💚
🐘 @cedric@greennet.social 🦋🐦Was Cedders68
There's a difference between non-extinction (some individuals of some genera or families surviving), and abundance.
Here's the ref in the diagram doi.org/10.1126/scia... and extract from Peter Brannen book:
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
Here's the ref in the diagram doi.org/10.1126/scia... and extract from Peter Brannen book:
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
Thresholds of catastrophe in the Earth system
The geochemical record of past disruptions of Earth’s carbon cycle reveals thresholds beyond which mass extinction occurs.
doi.org
November 9, 2025 at 9:13 PM
There's a difference between non-extinction (some individuals of some genera or families surviving), and abundance.
Here's the ref in the diagram doi.org/10.1126/scia... and extract from Peter Brannen book:
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
Here's the ref in the diagram doi.org/10.1126/scia... and extract from Peter Brannen book:
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
My point is that latent environmental damage (particularly ocean carbon disruption over centuries) *could* end the Cenozoic and sufficient food web productivity and atmosphere to support large mammals.
Most climate scientists say human extinction very unlikely from fossil fuels. I'm not so sure.
Most climate scientists say human extinction very unlikely from fossil fuels. I'm not so sure.
November 9, 2025 at 7:42 AM
My point is that latent environmental damage (particularly ocean carbon disruption over centuries) *could* end the Cenozoic and sufficient food web productivity and atmosphere to support large mammals.
Most climate scientists say human extinction very unlikely from fossil fuels. I'm not so sure.
Most climate scientists say human extinction very unlikely from fossil fuels. I'm not so sure.
The mineral exhaustion reminds me of Stapledon, 'Last and First Men'. I imagine with SLR/climate, there'd also be a taboo against mining. But empires can collapse and leave coil windings.
Why will reactors leak high-level waste? (See criticism of Jem Bendell).
Why will reactors leak high-level waste? (See criticism of Jem Bendell).
November 9, 2025 at 7:36 AM
The mineral exhaustion reminds me of Stapledon, 'Last and First Men'. I imagine with SLR/climate, there'd also be a taboo against mining. But empires can collapse and leave coil windings.
Why will reactors leak high-level waste? (See criticism of Jem Bendell).
Why will reactors leak high-level waste? (See criticism of Jem Bendell).
The work of Rothman and associates is so important. There is negative feedback (silicate weathering) at timecales >100,000 years, but positive feedbacks on century/millennia timescales, suggesting potential for a future Canfield ocean. #rothmancarbonthreshold
Pasting pic as reminder of fluxes.
Pasting pic as reminder of fluxes.
November 8, 2025 at 7:25 PM
The work of Rothman and associates is so important. There is negative feedback (silicate weathering) at timecales >100,000 years, but positive feedbacks on century/millennia timescales, suggesting potential for a future Canfield ocean. #rothmancarbonthreshold
Pasting pic as reminder of fluxes.
Pasting pic as reminder of fluxes.
PS 3/2: by 'contingent', I mean limited and subject to global change. I can see some European civilisation surviving #AMOCcollapse, but OTOH see human extinction under a Canfield ocean period.
AMOC records are uncertain, as is the tipping point.
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
AMOC records are uncertain, as is the tipping point.
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
‘We don’t know where the tipping point is’: climate expert on potential collapse of Atlantic circulation
Oceanographer Stefan Rahmstorf explains why Amoc breakdown could be catastrophic for both humans and marine life
www.theguardian.com
November 8, 2025 at 7:14 PM
PS 3/2: by 'contingent', I mean limited and subject to global change. I can see some European civilisation surviving #AMOCcollapse, but OTOH see human extinction under a Canfield ocean period.
AMOC records are uncertain, as is the tipping point.
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
AMOC records are uncertain, as is the tipping point.
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
Sorry if you've seen this diagram before, but I use it to argue that biogenic CO₂ and methane is irrelevant on century and longer timescale. We ignore oceans and the #slowcarboncycle at future civilisations' peril.
I have contingent confidence in H sapiens's ability to adapt.
#carboncycle
2/2
I have contingent confidence in H sapiens's ability to adapt.
#carboncycle
2/2
November 8, 2025 at 7:05 PM
Sorry if you've seen this diagram before, but I use it to argue that biogenic CO₂ and methane is irrelevant on century and longer timescale. We ignore oceans and the #slowcarboncycle at future civilisations' peril.
I have contingent confidence in H sapiens's ability to adapt.
#carboncycle
2/2
I have contingent confidence in H sapiens's ability to adapt.
#carboncycle
2/2
Thanks for links. Hadn't heard of 2030s 'moon wobble'. I'd seen Maslin on CO2 from European invasion. That and Mongol invasion may be detectable on proxy records, but are tiny compared to industrial perturbation. Plus... 1/2.
Things looking bad but uncertain IMHO. I'm still with decarb groups.
Things looking bad but uncertain IMHO. I'm still with decarb groups.
November 8, 2025 at 6:58 PM
Thanks for links. Hadn't heard of 2030s 'moon wobble'. I'd seen Maslin on CO2 from European invasion. That and Mongol invasion may be detectable on proxy records, but are tiny compared to industrial perturbation. Plus... 1/2.
Things looking bad but uncertain IMHO. I'm still with decarb groups.
Things looking bad but uncertain IMHO. I'm still with decarb groups.
The Cuban missile crisis was not the only time we came very close to nuclear war. There are accidental near-launches, and speaking of accountability, scenarios like "A House of Dynamite". Even a India-Pakistan was has been projected to cause 2 bn deaths from nuclear winter. 3/3
November 7, 2025 at 9:37 PM
The Cuban missile crisis was not the only time we came very close to nuclear war. There are accidental near-launches, and speaking of accountability, scenarios like "A House of Dynamite". Even a India-Pakistan was has been projected to cause 2 bn deaths from nuclear winter. 3/3
...since there is thermal inertia in the oceans. Sea-level rise and glacier retreat would continue, and co-extinctions. Even the AMOC shutdown could take decades to tip. One slow but massive tipping point is the Rothman carbon threshold.
As for nuclear war, that's a little optimistic too IMHO. 2/
As for nuclear war, that's a little optimistic too IMHO. 2/
November 7, 2025 at 9:37 PM
...since there is thermal inertia in the oceans. Sea-level rise and glacier retreat would continue, and co-extinctions. Even the AMOC shutdown could take decades to tip. One slow but massive tipping point is the Rothman carbon threshold.
As for nuclear war, that's a little optimistic too IMHO. 2/
As for nuclear war, that's a little optimistic too IMHO. 2/
Thanks for the reply. These are just my speculations. Hope to read Luke Kemp soon.
I disagree with "on an EOC-inducing pathway, the self-destruction occurs early enough, and EOC causes a climate-rollback." There are slow tipping points not rollback. EOC doesn't lower temperatures... 1/
I disagree with "on an EOC-inducing pathway, the self-destruction occurs early enough, and EOC causes a climate-rollback." There are slow tipping points not rollback. EOC doesn't lower temperatures... 1/
November 7, 2025 at 9:37 PM
Thanks for the reply. These are just my speculations. Hope to read Luke Kemp soon.
I disagree with "on an EOC-inducing pathway, the self-destruction occurs early enough, and EOC causes a climate-rollback." There are slow tipping points not rollback. EOC doesn't lower temperatures... 1/
I disagree with "on an EOC-inducing pathway, the self-destruction occurs early enough, and EOC causes a climate-rollback." There are slow tipping points not rollback. EOC doesn't lower temperatures... 1/
Gates is thinking about impacts now and tech of the future, when IMHO we should be thinking about impacts now and in future decades and centuries and how we can reduce them immediately.
3/3
3/3
November 4, 2025 at 9:18 AM
Gates is thinking about impacts now and tech of the future, when IMHO we should be thinking about impacts now and in future decades and centuries and how we can reduce them immediately.
3/3
3/3
Actions now may determine the end of the geological era or epoch. Nuclear war seems more likely to me to cause EOC than economic collapse, but whatever the civilisational risk, my point about climate breakdown is it threatens ecosystem services needed for recovery in future centuries.
2/3
2/3
November 4, 2025 at 9:16 AM
Actions now may determine the end of the geological era or epoch. Nuclear war seems more likely to me to cause EOC than economic collapse, but whatever the civilisational risk, my point about climate breakdown is it threatens ecosystem services needed for recovery in future centuries.
2/3
2/3
While what Daniel says is true, I'd agree we need to consider low-probability high-impact systemic failures, and they may not be as low-probability with knowledge about tipping points since Schneider.
Climate damage to ecosystems is deeper than extreme weather. That goes even bigger than EOC..
Climate damage to ecosystems is deeper than extreme weather. That goes even bigger than EOC..
November 4, 2025 at 9:16 AM
While what Daniel says is true, I'd agree we need to consider low-probability high-impact systemic failures, and they may not be as low-probability with knowledge about tipping points since Schneider.
Climate damage to ecosystems is deeper than extreme weather. That goes even bigger than EOC..
Climate damage to ecosystems is deeper than extreme weather. That goes even bigger than EOC..
"Innovation"/R&D was big oil's delay tactic since 80s and Gates knows too little to defend against it. A 'tech visionary' when we need cuts now.
Climate workers do worry most about intl inequities of eg env disasters. IMHO we also do want attention on less certain (LPHI) risks and #tippingpoints.
Climate workers do worry most about intl inequities of eg env disasters. IMHO we also do want attention on less certain (LPHI) risks and #tippingpoints.
November 4, 2025 at 8:58 AM
"Innovation"/R&D was big oil's delay tactic since 80s and Gates knows too little to defend against it. A 'tech visionary' when we need cuts now.
Climate workers do worry most about intl inequities of eg env disasters. IMHO we also do want attention on less certain (LPHI) risks and #tippingpoints.
Climate workers do worry most about intl inequities of eg env disasters. IMHO we also do want attention on less certain (LPHI) risks and #tippingpoints.
"Innovation"/R&D was big oil's delay tactic since 80s and Gates knows too little to defend against it. A 'tech visionary' when we need cuts now.
Climate folk can worry most about intl inequities of eg env disasters. IMHO we also want attention on less certain risks and #tippingpoints.
Climate folk can worry most about intl inequities of eg env disasters. IMHO we also want attention on less certain risks and #tippingpoints.
November 4, 2025 at 8:47 AM
"Innovation"/R&D was big oil's delay tactic since 80s and Gates knows too little to defend against it. A 'tech visionary' when we need cuts now.
Climate folk can worry most about intl inequities of eg env disasters. IMHO we also want attention on less certain risks and #tippingpoints.
Climate folk can worry most about intl inequities of eg env disasters. IMHO we also want attention on less certain risks and #tippingpoints.
Reposted by Cedric Knight 🌍
Here's the other problem: as @climateactiontracker.org point out in the report Gates' staffers either didn't read or chose to ignore - the shifting projections from 'bad' to 'less bad' STOPPED SHIFTING after covid and MIGHT BE SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS MORE BAD
climateactiontracker.org/documents/12...
climateactiontracker.org/documents/12...
October 29, 2025 at 8:44 PM
Here's the other problem: as @climateactiontracker.org point out in the report Gates' staffers either didn't read or chose to ignore - the shifting projections from 'bad' to 'less bad' STOPPED SHIFTING after covid and MIGHT BE SHIFTING BACK TOWARDS MORE BAD
climateactiontracker.org/documents/12...
climateactiontracker.org/documents/12...
Very much agree about urgency of ending fossil fuels, so in the UK doing what I can to #StopRosebank and ask representatives to attend nebriefing.org.
Even for tipping points that take more than a century to play out, we should think responsibly in terms of the #SevenGenerationsPrinciple.
🌍💚
Even for tipping points that take more than a century to play out, we should think responsibly in terms of the #SevenGenerationsPrinciple.
🌍💚
National Emergency Briefing on climate & nature
An unfiltered assessment of the latest threats to UK food supply, health and national security from eight leading experts to an invitation-only audience - also covering positive solutions. Westminster...
nebriefing.org
October 28, 2025 at 4:24 AM
Very much agree about urgency of ending fossil fuels, so in the UK doing what I can to #StopRosebank and ask representatives to attend nebriefing.org.
Even for tipping points that take more than a century to play out, we should think responsibly in terms of the #SevenGenerationsPrinciple.
🌍💚
Even for tipping points that take more than a century to play out, we should think responsibly in terms of the #SevenGenerationsPrinciple.
🌍💚
Reposted by Cedric Knight 🌍
Climate-fueled hurricane Melissa is in "extreme rapid intensification" now. Already a cat. 4 hurricane with winds of 225 km/h, having added 65 km/h in just 12 hours.
Looking very bad for Jamaica.
Looking very bad for Jamaica.
October 26, 2025 at 11:26 AM
Climate-fueled hurricane Melissa is in "extreme rapid intensification" now. Already a cat. 4 hurricane with winds of 225 km/h, having added 65 km/h in just 12 hours.
Looking very bad for Jamaica.
Looking very bad for Jamaica.
It's one of the more technical climate papers I've tried to read. My reading: most models need more tuning.
Does it mean collapse is likely years or decades after SPG tipping point?
"The delayed positive feedback from SPG to SSS [salinity] ... is expected to have a lag of 5–10 years."
Does it mean collapse is likely years or decades after SPG tipping point?
"The delayed positive feedback from SPG to SSS [salinity] ... is expected to have a lag of 5–10 years."
October 26, 2025 at 11:31 AM
It's one of the more technical climate papers I've tried to read. My reading: most models need more tuning.
Does it mean collapse is likely years or decades after SPG tipping point?
"The delayed positive feedback from SPG to SSS [salinity] ... is expected to have a lag of 5–10 years."
Does it mean collapse is likely years or decades after SPG tipping point?
"The delayed positive feedback from SPG to SSS [salinity] ... is expected to have a lag of 5–10 years."
Specifically, we have fossil fuel companies and related social institutions to blame for risks like collapse of AMOC and the subpolar gyre.
October 23, 2025 at 6:01 AM
Specifically, we have fossil fuel companies and related social institutions to blame for risks like collapse of AMOC and the subpolar gyre.
Very angry, yes. It's murder, or 'moral and economic madness' as Guterres put it.
They don't understand that the system is broken and there are purposes other than making money for the wealth fund.
Going to go for a run to work off the fury and think of constructive responses.
They don't understand that the system is broken and there are purposes other than making money for the wealth fund.
Going to go for a run to work off the fury and think of constructive responses.
October 15, 2025 at 12:59 PM
Very angry, yes. It's murder, or 'moral and economic madness' as Guterres put it.
They don't understand that the system is broken and there are purposes other than making money for the wealth fund.
Going to go for a run to work off the fury and think of constructive responses.
They don't understand that the system is broken and there are purposes other than making money for the wealth fund.
Going to go for a run to work off the fury and think of constructive responses.