My point is that latent environmental damage (particularly ocean carbon disruption over centuries) *could* end the Cenozoic and sufficient food web productivity and atmosphere to support large mammals.

Most climate scientists say human extinction very unlikely from fossil fuels. I'm not so sure.

The work of Rothman and associates is so important. There is negative feedback (silicate weathering) at timecales >100,000 years, but positive feedbacks on century/millennia timescales, suggesting potential for a future Canfield ocean. #rothmancarbonthreshold

Pasting pic as reminder of fluxes.

Sorry if you've seen this diagram before, but I use it to argue that biogenic CO₂ and methane is irrelevant on century and longer timescale. We ignore oceans and the #slowcarboncycle at future civilisations' peril.

I have contingent confidence in H sapiens's ability to adapt.

#carboncycle

2/2

Thanks for links. Hadn't heard of 2030s 'moon wobble'. I'd seen Maslin on CO2 from European invasion. That and Mongol invasion may be detectable on proxy records, but are tiny compared to industrial perturbation. Plus... 1/2.

Things looking bad but uncertain IMHO. I'm still with decarb groups.

"Innovation"/R&D was big oil's delay tactic since 80s and Gates knows too little to defend against it. A 'tech visionary' when we need cuts now.

Climate workers do worry most about intl inequities of eg env disasters. IMHO we also do want attention on less certain (LPHI) risks and #tippingpoints.

Stole it. This evening at DESNZ with @fossilfreeldn.bsky.social

⚠️ Warning. Tipping points ahead. Like the graphic. Would make a good placard.

I don't know source of that particular graph, but the uncertainties look similar to IPCC AR6.

Radiative forcing (left) is relatively certain, but temperature response including cloud feedback, and how much aerosols have masked, is related to climate sensitivity.

Will you be posting a more detailed itinerary for #WelfareNotWarfare on Wednesday? Thanks.