We have taken the ensemble version of the Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System (#AIFS) into operations!

It will run side by side with the traditional physics-based Integrated Forecasting System (IFS).

Find out more here
➡️ www.ecmwf.int/en/about/med...

Final published version of “Unbiased calculation, evaluation, and calibration of ensemble forecast anomalies” now available online in QJRMS:

rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...

Original thread on the preprint from the other place:

x.com/ClimatePrima...

Last Tuesday, I was set to give a talk on 'climate change in the Northeast' at a retirement home but had to cancel due to hourly job threats.

After nearly two weeks of overwhelming uncertainty, today it happened. I was fired from my dream of working at NOAA. I'm so sorry to everyone also affected.

Sorry - meridional wind, not zonal.

And here is an example 10 day forecast of 850 hPa Zonal Wind from AIFS-CRPS provided by Simon Lang. This animation illustrates that probabilistic CRPS-based training does not suffer from smoothing and/or reduced variance for longer rollouts that is inherent to deterministic MSE-based training.

🚨New preprint🚨from @ecmwf.bsky.social introducing AIFS-CRPS, a new data-driven ensemble system for medium-range and subseasonal forecasting. arxiv.org/abs/2412.15832

Our news highlights from 2024 include a major upgrade of the #IntegratedForecastingSystem; initiatives to drive forward weather science, including #MachineLearning; and news from the EU-funded services implemented by ECMWF.

For details ➡️ www.ecmwf.int/en/about/med...

New #AIFS blog: #MachineLearning (ML) for #weather and climate has continued to evolve at breathtaking pace.
Matthew Chantry takes us on a tour of the year past and gives some previews of the year to come.
➡️ ecmwf.int/en/about/med...

The Predictability of Weather and Climate group at the Physics Department of the University of Oxford invites applications for an open-ended senior research position: my.corehr.com/pls/uoxrecru...

Are you up for a challenge? We are now looking for our next Director General: jobs.ecmwf.int/Job/JobDetai...

Join us at #EGU25 to hear and discuss the latest advances in subseasonal-to-seasonal #S2S prediction and applications. Please submit your abstracts to AS1.7 meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/sessio... by 15 January 2025 13:00 CET.

The #EGU25 call for abstracts is open! Join our session AS1.7 to discuss recent advances in #S2S prediction, including process understanding and applications. We look forward to your contribution!

I will be at the CMStatistics conference in London from Saturday to Monday, let me know if you'd like to meet, e.g. to talk about the available postdoc position (bwsyncandshare.kit.edu/s/HXJrexofCa...)

A reminder that liking a post on bsky doesn't make it appear on your followers feed in the same way that it did on X.

If you think your followers may be interested in a post, then please do re-post it don't just like it.

🚨 New preprint 🚨 - "Ensemble reliability and the signal-to-noise paradox in large-ensemble subseasonal forecasts"

arxiv.org/html/2411.17...