Christian Hoell
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c-hoell.bsky.social
Christian Hoell
@c-hoell.bsky.social
76 followers 150 following 1.2K posts
🔬🤝🌎 Fascinated by science and society.
Σ💻👥Integrating mathematical models for progressive change.
🏑 Hockey player on and off the pitch,
⚽ watching football from a distance.
🇬🇧🇺🇸 English-language account, sometimes responds in German.
Posts Replies Media Videos
Reposted by Christian Hoell
akm0803.bsky.social
Nach heftiger Kritik und Verbandsaustritten für seine Öffnung zur AfD vollzieht der Verband der Familienunternehmer eine Kehrtwende:

www.t-online.de/nachrichten/...
Nach heftiger Kritik – Familienunternehmer stoppen Öffnungskurs zur AfD
Heftige Kritik und Verbandsaustritte erntete der Verband der Familienunternehmer nach seiner Öffnung zur AfD. Nun vollzieht der Verband eine Kehrtwende.
www.t-online.de
November 30, 2025 at 7:52 PM
c-hoell.bsky.social
This week's UCL sees the two best-performing teams face off: Arsenal vs Bayern. My model makes it out to be a very close match!
The third club with the perfect-until-now 12 points is Inter Milan which are travelling to play against Atletico Madrid.
#UCL #ChampionsLeague #soccer #SoccerPredictor
Ajax - Benfica: 37-25-38, Gala - Union SG: 55-23-23, Man City - Leverkusen: 68-18-14, Chelsea - Barca: 37-25-38, Dortmund - Villarreal: 56-22-22, Napoli - Qarabag: 36-25-39, Glimt - Juve: 22-22-56, Marseille - Newcastle: 25-23-52, Sl.Prague - Bilbao: 29-24-47, Copenhagen - Qairat: 39-25-36, Pafos - Monaco: 38-25-37, PSG - Tottenham: 67-18-15, Liverpool - PSV: 65-19-16, Arsenal - Bayern: 36-25-39, Atleti - Inter Milan: 28-24-48, Frankfurt - Atalanta: 31-25-44, Sporting - Brugges: 41-25-34, Olympiakos - Real: 12-16-71.
November 25, 2025 at 12:39 PM
Reposted by Christian Hoell
michaelhobbes.bsky.social
Every article by a 'savvy' political analyst reads like a focus group transcript with a low-information voter.
www.theatlantic.com/politics/202...
Why Donald Trump Seems Taken With Zohran Mamdani Michael Powell This was one of several moments in the press conference that felt more like a Saturday Night Live skit than a newscast. But perhaps all this was not as improbable as it looked and sounded. Trump bellows and insults and demeans, but so much of that is an act, guff and bullying. His earlier talk of Mamdani as “my little communist mayor” even carried an odd hint of affection, and there was evident admiration in the way in which he spoke of Mamdani’s unlikely mayoral victory. These men are, in their very different ways, populists, Queens men, and sometimes statists; they share a disdain for political establishments. And Trump, the developer, is aware of the extremely high cost of New York real estate, a focus of Mamdani’s campaign.
November 22, 2025 at 2:05 PM
Reposted by Christian Hoell
joshtpm.bsky.social
lol
November 21, 2025 at 4:49 PM
c-hoell.bsky.social
#GermanPolls: November news!
Here are the current polling averages in the ideology-turnout model (with changes to three weeks ago). CDU/CSU may have gathered some former FDP and BSW supporters.
CDU/CSU 26 (+1)
SPD 15 (=)
Greens 12 (+1)
Linke 10 (-1)
BSW 3 (-1)
FDP 3 (-1)
AFD 25 (=)
#Bundestagswahl
Current polling averages, as described in the post. CDU/CSU is slightly in lead with 26%.
November 21, 2025 at 1:21 PM
c-hoell.bsky.social
#GermanPolls: Beim ZDF-Politbarometer werden FDP und BSW unter 3% angegeben. Gleichzeitig sind Sonstige bei 11% statt bei den früheren 6% (die galten von Mai bis September 2025). Meine Abschätzung wäre also, dass beide Parteien hier ungefähr bei 2,5% liegen.
www.forschungsgruppe.de/Aktuelles/Po...
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen > Aktuelles > Politbarometer
www.forschungsgruppe.de
November 21, 2025 at 9:44 AM
Reposted by Christian Hoell
cdrosten.bsky.social
www.deutschlandfunk.de/corona-beric...
Ich hatte mal überschlagen, dass eine ca. 2-3 Woche spätere Reaktion in D ca. 60.000 zusätzliche Todesfälle bedeutet hätte. Das scheint wohl mit dieser Schätzung aus UK übereinzustimmen.
Versäumnisse der Regierung Johnson - Corona-Bericht: Tausende vermeidbare Tote in Großbritannien
Eine Expertenkommission in Großbritannien wirft der damaligen konservativen Regierung von Premier Johnson schwere Versäumnisse zum Beginn der Corona-Pandemie 2020 vor.
www.deutschlandfunk.de
November 21, 2025 at 8:43 AM
Reposted by Christian Hoell
usapolling.bsky.social
"Do you think that Trump was involved in crimes allegedly committed by Jeffrey Epstein?"

All:
Yes: 42%
No: 34%

Yes Among:
DEM: 79%
IND: 43%
GOP: 7%

YouGov / Nov 17, 2025
November 18, 2025 at 8:26 PM
Reposted by Christian Hoell
nataschastrobl.bsky.social
Das ist übrigens Eugenik.

Wenn du einmal beginnst zu selektieren, wem du hilfst und wem nicht, dann gehst du einen Weg, der nicht aufzuhalten ist.

Streeck ist Mediziner und weiß das natürlich. Das macht es so perfide. Vor allem, weil er zwei rhetorische Tricks verwendet:
November 13, 2025 at 7:14 AM
Reposted by Christian Hoell
philjamesson.com
the emails from epstein say things like "thank god donald trump isnt exposing us. he knows more than anyone" and the headlines are like "it would seem, to some, that donald trump's name is mentioned in passing"
npr.org NPR @npr.org · 19d
Democrats on the House Oversight Committee have released several emails from the estate of convicted sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein that refer to President Trump. n.pr/4p7hqKa
New Epstein emails appear to reveal more Trump ties
Democrats on the House Oversight Committee have released several emails from the estate of convicted sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein that refer to President Trump.
n.pr
November 12, 2025 at 2:23 PM
Reposted by Christian Hoell
joshtpm.bsky.social
Obvious but worth saying. We really think the White House/DOJ which disappears documents and people pretty regularly is gonna go, "Welp, House voted so I guess we have to turn over the stag films of Trump with a 15 yr old. The rules are the rules." I'm not saying the exercise is pointless at all.
November 12, 2025 at 4:02 PM
Reposted by Christian Hoell
joshtpm.bsky.social
The White House keeps unilaterally taking entirely voluntary actions which it openly says are intended to inflict more pain and then they're I guess surprised - along with most of the DC media - about why they seem to be taking the blame for the shutdown.
November 8, 2025 at 12:45 AM
Reposted by Christian Hoell
nataschastrobl.bsky.social
4. Spaß! Das letzte was man mit Sozialdemokratie verbindet ist Spaß, dabei soll und darf Politik Spaß machen und das hat Mamdani gezeigt. Eine Bewegung ist halt eine Bewegung, wenn es nicht nur mühsame Arbeit ist, sondern wenn man auch gern dabei ist. Ehrlicher Spaß. Gemeinschaft.
November 5, 2025 at 3:13 PM
Reposted by Christian Hoell
nataschastrobl.bsky.social
2. Sozioöknomische Themen im Vordergrund ohne Kompromisse bei Gesellschaftspolitik.
Leistbares Leben als mehrheitsfähige Botschaft. Das ist es. Es braucht Mehrheitsthemen u das geht nur ü Sozioökonomie. Gleichzeitig paart er das Ganze immer wieder mit verschiedenen Minderheitsthemen u das ist smart.
November 5, 2025 at 3:08 PM
Reposted by Christian Hoell
nataschastrobl.bsky.social
Ein paar Punkte die wichtig sind beim Sieg von Mamdani.
Wer es sich nicht durchlesen möchte, der Sukkus ist, dass er alles negiert was die europäische Sozialdemokratie in weiten Teilen für gesichert hält. Er zeigt wie Sozialdemokratie sein könnte.

Fangen wir von vorne an:
November 5, 2025 at 1:48 PM
c-hoell.bsky.social
Das BSW "soll künftig "Bündnis Soziale Gerechtigkeit und Wirtschaftliche Vernunft" heißen."
Dieser "Vorschlag des Präsidiums und des Vorstands" erwähnt nicht den kulturell-konservativen Charakter, den Wagenknecht auch eingebracht hat.
#GermanPolitics #BSW
www.tagesschau.de/inland/bsw-n...
BSW will Wagenknecht aus Namen nehmen
Lange wurde gerätselt, wie sich das Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht künftig nennen will. Jetzt hat sich die Führungsspitze offenbar geeinigt: Der Name der Parteigründerin soll wegfallen. Immerhin: Beim Kürz...
www.tagesschau.de
November 7, 2025 at 12:17 PM
Reposted by Christian Hoell
attackerman.bsky.social
All day, many of you have been asking for a Cheney obituary from me. Get ready:
His Works Completed, Dick Cheney, Mass Murderer of Iraqis and American Democracy, Dies
As much as the Trumpists claim to disavow the War on Terror, they walk a path paved by the most powerful vice president in U.S. history.
www.thenation.com
November 4, 2025 at 5:55 PM
Reposted by Christian Hoell
moiradonegan.bsky.social
On Election Day, the president announces that he will defy a court order so as to deprive millions of Americans of food.
November 4, 2025 at 6:10 PM
Reposted by Christian Hoell
jamellebouie.net
one last observation: donald trump has never won a majority of the vote and yet the political press treats him like the embodied spirit of the american people. will be interesting to see how they discount mamdani as representing new york if he wins less than a majority.
November 4, 2025 at 11:32 AM
c-hoell.bsky.social
Again, here are the probabilities my Elo model gives out for this week's UCL matches. PSG are favorites against Bayern, while Liverpool vs Real looks like a close thing.
#SoccerPredictor #UCL #ChampionsLeague
Calculated probabilites for "Home team wins", "Draw", "Away Team wins". Napoli - Frankfurt: 39-25-36, Sl. Prague - Arsenal: 15-18-67, PSG - Bayern: 49-24-27, Liverpool - Real: 37-25-38, Juve - Sporting: 45-24-30, Atleti - Union SG: 63-20-17, Tottenham - Copenhagen: 51-23-26, Glimt - Monaco: 38-25-37, Olympiakos - PSV: 27-24-49, Qarabag - Chelsea: 18-20-61, Pafos - Villarreal: 29-24-47, Man City - Dortmund: 49-24-27, Inter Milan - Qairat: 76-14-10, Ajax - Gala: 42-25-33, Benfica - Leverkusen: 47-24-29, Brugges - Barca: 22-22-56, Marseille - Atalanta: 35-25-40, Newcastle - Bilbao: 52-23-25.
November 4, 2025 at 10:37 AM
Reposted by Christian Hoell
joshtpm.bsky.social
Trump Wants to Abolish the Filibuster? Please Proceed, Degenerate … talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/trump...
Trump Wants to Abolish the Filibuster? Please Proceed, Degenerate …
As you’ve probably already heard, Donald Trump went on Truth Social late...
talkingpointsmemo.com
October 31, 2025 at 5:07 PM
c-hoell.bsky.social
The Dutch election takes time to count all votes. Nevertheless the trends are clear:
- good chances for a government under D66 (part of the liberal "Renew" European group)
- Politico's poll of polls didn't suspect some (late-time?) moves
#EuropeanPolls #DutchPolitics
www.politico.eu/article/rob-...
Centrist D66 beats the far right to win Dutch election, national press agency announces
Rob Jetten is in pole position to become the new prime minister.
www.politico.eu
October 31, 2025 at 3:38 PM
c-hoell.bsky.social
#SoccerPredictor: German DFB-Pokal is going into Round 2. Some little tweaks to the strength input try to compensate for league performances, which will help to test if a cup-only method predicts worse than an overall-strength model.
The closest big match is Frankfurt vs Dortmund.
#DFBPokal
Calculated probabilities for outcomes (after 90 mins): "home team wins"-"draw"-"away team wins". Heidenh. - HSV: 48-24-28, Hertha - Elversberg: 34-25-41, Eintracht - Dortmund: 33-25-42, Wolfsburg - Kiel: 58-21-20, Cottbus - Leipzig: 16-19-65, M'gladbach - KSC: 45-24-31, Augsburg - Bochum: 64-20-17, St. Pauli - Hoffenh.: 32-25-44, Illertissen - Magdeb.: 13-17-70, Fuerth - Lautern: 32-25-43, Paderborn - Leverk.: 23-23-54, Mainz - Stuttg.: 32-25-43, Union B. - Bielef.: 61-21-19, Darmstadt - Schalke: 41-25-35, D'dorf - Freiburg: 20-21-58, 1.FC Koeln - Bayern: 19-21-60. Current input to calculate probabilities. Red color indicates losing Elo point, like Bayern has done by winning only narrowly against Wiesbaden. Strengths in the model right now, given in odds against the weakest team: Bayern: 20.1, Dortmund: 16.2, Leipzig: 14.0, Stuttg.: 13.7, Hoffenh.: 12.9, Leverk.: 12.7, Eintracht: 12.7, Wolfsburg: 12.7, Freiburg: 12.0, Heidenh.: 10.6, Union B.: 10.6, Mainz: 10.2, Augsburg: 10.1, St. Pauli: 9.5, Werder: 9.4, 1.FC Koeln: 8.1, M'gladbach: 8.1, HSV: 7.6, KSC: 6.5, Elversberg: 6.3, Paderborn: 6.3, Kiel: 6.1, Darmstadt: 6.1, Hannover: 5.8, Schalke: 5.8, Lautern: 5.4, Hertha: 5.2, D'dorf: 5.1, Bielef.: 4.6, Cottbus: 4.5, Braunschw.: 4.4, Magdeb.: 4.4, Muenster: 4.2, Fuerth: 4.1, Bochum: 3.9, Nuernb.: 3.9, Saarbr.: 3.0, Wiesbaden: 2.2, Essen: 2.1, Dresden: 2.1, Vikt. Koeln: 2.1, Ulm: 2.1, Rostock: 2.0, Norderst.: 1.1, Pirmasens: 1.1, Lok Leipzig: 1.1, BFC Dyn.: 1.1, Illertissen: 1.1, Sandh.: 1.1, Lotte: 1.1, Halle: 1.1, Regens.: 1.1, Delmenhorst: 1.1, Luebeck: 1.1, Homburg: 1.1, Schweinfurt: 1.1, Lohne: 1.1, Engers: 1.0, Grossasp.: 1.0, Hemelingen: 1.0, Guetersloh: 1.0, Bahl. SC: 1.0, Meuselwitz: 1.0, RSV Eintr.: 1.0.
October 28, 2025 at 4:23 PM
c-hoell.bsky.social
#GermanPolls: Stagnation in polls could mean an incoming reversal of trends. Here are the polling averages by the ideology-turnout model (with indicated changes to three weeks ago).
CDU/CSU 25 (=)
SPD 15 (+1)
Greens 11 (=)
Linke 11 (=)
BSW 4 (+1)
FDP 4 (+1)
AFD 25 (=)
#GermanPolitics #Bundestag
Current polling averages, as described in the post. CDU/CSU is slightly in front with 25%.
October 28, 2025 at 12:06 PM
c-hoell.bsky.social
The Dutch election on October 29 will lead to an overhaul of the government. The concrete new coalition will follow from the exact results, as everything seems close and kinda complex.
www.politico.eu/europe-poll-...
#DutchPolls #DutchPolitics #DutchElection
www.politico.eu
October 27, 2025 at 12:28 PM