Christian Hoell
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c-hoell.bsky.social
Christian Hoell
@c-hoell.bsky.social
76 followers 150 following 1.2K posts
🔬🤝🌎 Fascinated by science and society.
Σ💻👥Integrating mathematical models for progressive change.
🏑 Hockey player on and off the pitch,
⚽ watching football from a distance.
🇬🇧🇺🇸 English-language account, sometimes responds in German.
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c-hoell.bsky.social
This week's UCL sees the two best-performing teams face off: Arsenal vs Bayern. My model makes it out to be a very close match!
The third club with the perfect-until-now 12 points is Inter Milan which are travelling to play against Atletico Madrid.
#UCL #ChampionsLeague #soccer #SoccerPredictor
Ajax - Benfica: 37-25-38, Gala - Union SG: 55-23-23, Man City - Leverkusen: 68-18-14, Chelsea - Barca: 37-25-38, Dortmund - Villarreal: 56-22-22, Napoli - Qarabag: 36-25-39, Glimt - Juve: 22-22-56, Marseille - Newcastle: 25-23-52, Sl.Prague - Bilbao: 29-24-47, Copenhagen - Qairat: 39-25-36, Pafos - Monaco: 38-25-37, PSG - Tottenham: 67-18-15, Liverpool - PSV: 65-19-16, Arsenal - Bayern: 36-25-39, Atleti - Inter Milan: 28-24-48, Frankfurt - Atalanta: 31-25-44, Sporting - Brugges: 41-25-34, Olympiakos - Real: 12-16-71.
November 25, 2025 at 12:39 PM
c-hoell.bsky.social
Trends for the last three weeks, "!" standing for changes in those trends:
CDU/CSU ➡️❗
SPD ➡️❗
Greens ↗️❗
Linke ↘️❗
AFD ➡️
BSW and FDP are, because of their low numbers, too wobbly to discuss here.
Turnout strengths for the different political parties as a function of weeks since the last election. The trends described in the post only regard the last three weeks.
November 21, 2025 at 1:29 PM
c-hoell.bsky.social
In a bit of funny news, Allensbach CDU/CSU numbers have been less far above those from other pollsters than usual. This might be an effect of time delay, though, incorporating less of the swing towards the Union.
Lines: polling averages as a function of weeks since the 2021 election. Dots: input data.
November 21, 2025 at 1:25 PM
c-hoell.bsky.social
#GermanPolls: November news!
Here are the current polling averages in the ideology-turnout model (with changes to three weeks ago). CDU/CSU may have gathered some former FDP and BSW supporters.
CDU/CSU 26 (+1)
SPD 15 (=)
Greens 12 (+1)
Linke 10 (-1)
BSW 3 (-1)
FDP 3 (-1)
AFD 25 (=)
#Bundestagswahl
Current polling averages, as described in the post. CDU/CSU is slightly in lead with 26%.
November 21, 2025 at 1:21 PM
c-hoell.bsky.social
Bei anderen aktuellen Umfragen liegen beide bis zu 4%, selten unter 3%. Daher die Abschätzung nach oben.
Auf diesen Niveau lässt sich bis zu kommenden Wahlen kaum sagen, welche Werte hier wohl näher an der Wahrheit liegen. Man hält diese Unsicherheit aus.
Quelle der Übersicht: dawum.de/Bundestag/
Umfragewerte zu Bundestagswahlen von Mitte November 2025. BSW und FDP liegen je nach Umfrageinstitut zwischen 4% und unter 3% (als "n.a." gekennzeichnet). YouGov, INSA, Ipsos und Allensbach haben beide besonders hoch. Forschungsgruppe Wahlen und Forsa beide besonders niedrig. GMS, Infratest dimap, Verian in der Mitte (beide Parteien bei genau 3%)
November 21, 2025 at 10:00 AM
c-hoell.bsky.social
Again, here are the probabilities my Elo model gives out for this week's UCL matches. PSG are favorites against Bayern, while Liverpool vs Real looks like a close thing.
#SoccerPredictor #UCL #ChampionsLeague
Calculated probabilites for "Home team wins", "Draw", "Away Team wins". Napoli - Frankfurt: 39-25-36, Sl. Prague - Arsenal: 15-18-67, PSG - Bayern: 49-24-27, Liverpool - Real: 37-25-38, Juve - Sporting: 45-24-30, Atleti - Union SG: 63-20-17, Tottenham - Copenhagen: 51-23-26, Glimt - Monaco: 38-25-37, Olympiakos - PSV: 27-24-49, Qarabag - Chelsea: 18-20-61, Pafos - Villarreal: 29-24-47, Man City - Dortmund: 49-24-27, Inter Milan - Qairat: 76-14-10, Ajax - Gala: 42-25-33, Benfica - Leverkusen: 47-24-29, Brugges - Barca: 22-22-56, Marseille - Atalanta: 35-25-40, Newcastle - Bilbao: 52-23-25.
November 4, 2025 at 10:37 AM
c-hoell.bsky.social
#SoccerPredictor: German DFB-Pokal is going into Round 2. Some little tweaks to the strength input try to compensate for league performances, which will help to test if a cup-only method predicts worse than an overall-strength model.
The closest big match is Frankfurt vs Dortmund.
#DFBPokal
Calculated probabilities for outcomes (after 90 mins): "home team wins"-"draw"-"away team wins". Heidenh. - HSV: 48-24-28, Hertha - Elversberg: 34-25-41, Eintracht - Dortmund: 33-25-42, Wolfsburg - Kiel: 58-21-20, Cottbus - Leipzig: 16-19-65, M'gladbach - KSC: 45-24-31, Augsburg - Bochum: 64-20-17, St. Pauli - Hoffenh.: 32-25-44, Illertissen - Magdeb.: 13-17-70, Fuerth - Lautern: 32-25-43, Paderborn - Leverk.: 23-23-54, Mainz - Stuttg.: 32-25-43, Union B. - Bielef.: 61-21-19, Darmstadt - Schalke: 41-25-35, D'dorf - Freiburg: 20-21-58, 1.FC Koeln - Bayern: 19-21-60. Current input to calculate probabilities. Red color indicates losing Elo point, like Bayern has done by winning only narrowly against Wiesbaden. Strengths in the model right now, given in odds against the weakest team: Bayern: 20.1, Dortmund: 16.2, Leipzig: 14.0, Stuttg.: 13.7, Hoffenh.: 12.9, Leverk.: 12.7, Eintracht: 12.7, Wolfsburg: 12.7, Freiburg: 12.0, Heidenh.: 10.6, Union B.: 10.6, Mainz: 10.2, Augsburg: 10.1, St. Pauli: 9.5, Werder: 9.4, 1.FC Koeln: 8.1, M'gladbach: 8.1, HSV: 7.6, KSC: 6.5, Elversberg: 6.3, Paderborn: 6.3, Kiel: 6.1, Darmstadt: 6.1, Hannover: 5.8, Schalke: 5.8, Lautern: 5.4, Hertha: 5.2, D'dorf: 5.1, Bielef.: 4.6, Cottbus: 4.5, Braunschw.: 4.4, Magdeb.: 4.4, Muenster: 4.2, Fuerth: 4.1, Bochum: 3.9, Nuernb.: 3.9, Saarbr.: 3.0, Wiesbaden: 2.2, Essen: 2.1, Dresden: 2.1, Vikt. Koeln: 2.1, Ulm: 2.1, Rostock: 2.0, Norderst.: 1.1, Pirmasens: 1.1, Lok Leipzig: 1.1, BFC Dyn.: 1.1, Illertissen: 1.1, Sandh.: 1.1, Lotte: 1.1, Halle: 1.1, Regens.: 1.1, Delmenhorst: 1.1, Luebeck: 1.1, Homburg: 1.1, Schweinfurt: 1.1, Lohne: 1.1, Engers: 1.0, Grossasp.: 1.0, Hemelingen: 1.0, Guetersloh: 1.0, Bahl. SC: 1.0, Meuselwitz: 1.0, RSV Eintr.: 1.0.
October 28, 2025 at 4:23 PM
c-hoell.bsky.social
Trends for the last three weeks:
CDU/CSU ↘️
SPD ↗️❗
Greens ↘️
Linke ↗️
AFD ➡️❗
For the moment, FDP and BSW trends are suspended because their low numbers means that the averaging is less reliable.
Turnout strengths for the different political parties as a function of weeks since the last election. The trends described in the post only regard the last three weeks.
October 28, 2025 at 12:12 PM
c-hoell.bsky.social
In particular, AFD might have lost their momentum. Of course, it is too early to declare this a truth, but the stagnation hints at such a thing.
Lines: polling averages as a function of weeks since the 2021 election. Dots: input data.
October 28, 2025 at 12:09 PM
c-hoell.bsky.social
#GermanPolls: Stagnation in polls could mean an incoming reversal of trends. Here are the polling averages by the ideology-turnout model (with indicated changes to three weeks ago).
CDU/CSU 25 (=)
SPD 15 (+1)
Greens 11 (=)
Linke 11 (=)
BSW 4 (+1)
FDP 4 (+1)
AFD 25 (=)
#GermanPolitics #Bundestag
Current polling averages, as described in the post. CDU/CSU is slightly in front with 25%.
October 28, 2025 at 12:06 PM
c-hoell.bsky.social
It's the third matchday of UCL. Here are the odds calculated by my Elo-style model.
This year, I test if such a model suffices or if one needs to incorporate results from the leagues in which the teams are also participating.
#soccer #SoccerPredictor #UCL #ChampionsLeague
Probabilites for all matches on Matchday 3 of UCL 25/26, calculated by my model and given in the format "home-team win" - "draw" - "away-team win". Barca - Olympiakos: 67-18-15, Qairat - Pafos: 37-25-38, Arsenal - Atleti: 42-25-33, Leverkusen - PSG: 14-18-68, PSV - Napoli: 36-25-39, Villarreal - Man City: 17-20-63, Copenhagen - Dortmund: 17-20-63, Union SG - Inter Milan: 13-17-70, Newcastle - Benfica: 33-25-42, Gala - Glimt: 39-25-36, Bilbao - Qarabag: 43-25-32, Bayern - Brugges: 60-21-19, Real - Juve: 57-22-21, Chelsea - Ajax: 58-21-20, Atalanta - Sl. Prague: 58-21-21, Frankfurt - Liverpool: 20-21-59, Sporting - Marseille: 37-25-38, Monaco - Tottenham: 28-24-48.
October 20, 2025 at 5:55 PM
c-hoell.bsky.social
Trends for the last three weeks:
CDU/CSU ↘️
SPD ↘️❗
Greens ↘️❗
Linke ↗️❗
BSW↘️❗
FDP ↘️❗
AFD ↗️❗
Even while it still sees CDU/CSU in front of AFD in the aggregate, the latest Politbarometer and DeutschlandTrend have now been convinced the model of the trends first seen in Forsa and INSA polls.
Turnout strengths for the different political parties as a function of weeks since the last election. The trends described in the post only regard the last three weeks.
October 8, 2025 at 9:23 AM
c-hoell.bsky.social
The ideology-turnout model now sees the AFD increase as real. I still want to mention that, of course, this is what the polling trend says for this moment. German politics is far away from election campaigns and thus from full mobilization. AFD might suffer less from that effect than the democrats.
Lines: polling averages as a function of weeks since the 2021 election. Dots: input data.
October 8, 2025 at 9:16 AM
c-hoell.bsky.social
German pollsters use the Sonntagsfrage: "For which party would you vote if the next Bundestagswahl REALLY was next Sunday?" Here are the current polling averages for this question.
CDU/CSU 25 (-2)
SPD 14 (-1)
Greens 11 (=)
Linke 11 (+1)
BSW 3 (-1)
FDP 3 (-1)
AFD 25 (+2)
#GermanPolls #GermanPolitics
Current polling averages, as described in the post. CDU/CSU is slighlty in front with 25%.
October 8, 2025 at 9:11 AM
c-hoell.bsky.social
Upcoming: UCL Matchday 2. I run an account on IG that applies an Elo-style model to the matches.
www.instagram.com/p/DPON-kqDYq...
#SoccerPredictor #ChampionsLeague #UCL #soccer #BaseOdds
Probabilites for all matches on Matchday of UCL, calculated by our model and given in the format "home-team win" - "draw" - "away-team win". Atalanta - Brugges: 42-25-33, Qairat - Real: 12-16-72, Inter Milan - Sl. Prague: 71-16-12, Chelsea - Benfica: 45-25-31, Atleti - Frankfurt: 50-24-26, Glimt - Tottenham: 28-24-48, Marseille - Ajax: 30-24-46, Gala - Liverpool: 11-15-73, Pafos - Bayern: 15-19-66, Union SG - Newcastle: 32-25-44, Qarabag - Copenhagen: 41-25-34, Dortmund - Bilbao: 54-23-23, Barca - PSG: 28-24-48, Arsenal - Olympiakos: 68-18-14, Leverkusen - PSV: 41-25-34, Napoli - Sporting: 37-25-38, Villarreal - Juve: 29-24-47, Monaco - Man City: 11-15-74.
September 30, 2025 at 10:01 AM
c-hoell.bsky.social
Today, men's UEL has the first matches of its league stage. As a best guess, I use a tiered list of strengths to assume where the teams are standing. The English club Aston Villa seems to be the likeliest to win the trophy.
#SoccerPredictor #UEL #UEFA #EuropeLeague #BaseOdds #soccer
Strengths assumed in the model for each team, measured in odds against the weakest team. Aston Villa: 3.3, Nottingham: 2.7, Roma: 2.7, Porto: 2.0, Lille: 2.0, Sevilla: 2.0, Feyenoord: 2.0, Bologna: 2.0, Nice: 2.0, Stuttgart: 2.0, Salzburg: 1.3, Rangers: 1.3, Freiburg: 1.3, Celtic: 1.3, Lyon: 1.3, Zvezda: 1.3, Midtjylland: 1.3, Zagreb: 1.3, Fenerbahce: 1.3, Utrecht: 1.0, Maccabi: 1.0, PAOK: 1.0, Celta Vigo: 1.0, Basel: 1.0, Pilsen: 1.0, Bukarest: 1.0, Rasgrad: 1.0, Budapest: 1.0, Graz: 1.0, Bergen: 1.0, Eagles: 1.0, Braga: 1.0, Genk: 1.0, Malmo: 1.0, P. Athens: 1.0, Bern: 1.0 Odds calculated by the described model, given in the format "home team wins" - "draw" - "away team wins". PAOK - Maccabi: 39-25-36, Midtjylland - Graz: 47-24-29, Zagreb - Fenerbahce: 39-25-36, Sevilla - Nottingham: 32-25-43, Zvezda - Celtic: 39-25-36, Braga - Feyenoord: 23-23-54, Nice - Roma: 32-25-43, Freiburg - Basel: 47-24-29, Malmo - Rasgrad: 39-25-36, Lille - Bergen: 57-22-21, Eagles - Bukarest: 39-25-36, Aston Villa - Bologna: 52-23-25, Rangers - Genk: 47-24-29, Salzburg - Porto: 29-24-46, Budapest - Pilsen: 39-25-36, Bern - P. Athens: 39-25-36, Utrecht - Lyon: 32-25-43, Stuttgart - Celta Vigo: 57-22-21.
September 24, 2025 at 3:55 PM
c-hoell.bsky.social
Trends for the last three weeks:
CDU/CSU ↘️
SPD ↗️
Greens ➡️
Linke ➡️❗
BSW↗️
FDP ➡️❗
AFD ➡️
The BSW and FDP numbers depend on tiny changes in the polls and are thus not so trustable. Still, a rise for those two pressures AFD because both are ideological neighbors of it (in different directions).
Turnout strengths for the different political parties as a function of weeks since the last election. The trends described in the post only regard the last three weeks.
September 19, 2025 at 8:02 AM
c-hoell.bsky.social
At the moment, the model is accepting some cost to not follow the last numbers of AFD, which rank around +2 higher than the calculated average. This is caused by the long-time trend: the model sees many voters more distanced to AFD ideology and thus no stable support for this far-right party.
Lines: polling averages as a function of weeks since the 2021 election. Dots: input data.
September 19, 2025 at 7:59 AM
c-hoell.bsky.social
#GermanPolls: Originally, the national election would be next week. Here are the current polling averages in the ideology-turnout model (with changes to three weeks ago)!
CDU/CSU 27 (+1, marginally)
SPD 15 (=)
Greens 11 (=)
Linke 10 (=)
BSW 4 (=)
FDP 4 (=)
AFD 23 (=)
#GermanPolitics #DataAnalysis
Current polling averages, as described in the post. CDU/CSU is in front with 27%.
September 19, 2025 at 7:54 AM
c-hoell.bsky.social
To give rough predictions for UCL (starting today), the strengths of all teams is the key input. From that, the Elo-style model I use calculates odds for each match.
#SoccerPredictor #ChampionsLeague #UCL #soccer #BaseOdds
Probabilites for all matches on Matchday of UCL, calculated by our model and given in the format "home-team win" - "draw" - "away-team win". PSV - Union SG: 50-24-27, Bilbao - Arsenal: 23-23-54, Real - Marseille: 73-15-11, Juve - Dortmund: 34-25-41, Benfica - Qarabag: 62-20-18, Tottenham - Villarreal: 39-25-36, Olympiakos - Pafos: 39-25-36, Sl. Prague - Glimt: 39-25-36, PSG - Atalanta: 61-20-19, Bayern - Chelsea: 42-25-33, Liverpool - Atleti: 51-23-26, Ajax - Inter Milan: 20-21-59, Brugges - Monaco: 50-24-27, Copenhagen - Leverkusen: 29-24-46, Man City - Napoli: 67-18-15, Frankfurt - Gala: 50-24-27, Sporting - Qairat: 50-24-27, Newcastle - Barca: 23-23-54. Strengths in our base-odds model. PSG: 4.7, Man City: 4.4, Real: 4.0, Liverpool: 4.0, Inter Milan: 3.6, Bayern: 3.1, Arsenal: 3.0, Barca: 3.0, Chelsea: 2.8, Dortmund: 2.6, Atleti: 2.5, Benfica: 2.4, Juve: 2.1, Atalanta: 2.0, Ajax: 1.5, Bilbao: 1.5, PSV: 1.5, Frankfurt: 1.5, Leverkusen: 1.5, Sporting: 1.5, Napoli: 1.5, Newcastle: 1.5, Tottenham: 1.5, Villarreal: 1.5, Brugges: 1.5, Gala: 1.0, Marseille: 1.0, Monaco: 1.0, Olympiakos: 1.0, Sl. Prague: 1.0, Union SG: 1.0, Copenhagen: 1.0, Qarabag: 1.0, Glimt: 1.0, Qairat: 1.0, Pafos: 1.0.
September 16, 2025 at 9:58 AM
c-hoell.bsky.social
The UCL match-ups have been drawn today. The Elo-style model has been applied and shows that the effect of luck seems to be limited. Atletico Madrid and Eintracht Frankfurt might have had the worst luck, losing one or two points to the ideal value.
#soccer #SoccerPredictor #UCL #ChampionsLeague
Prognosis of UCL group stage, done before season start. Expected points are plotted against assumed strength (base odds). Ordered by expected points: Man City, PSG, Liverpool, Real, Inter Milan, Barca, Arsenal, Bayern, Chelsea, Dortmund, Benfica, Juve, Atalanta, Tottenham, Atleti, ... Strengths (base odds) of all UCL teams, in descending order. PSG: 4.7, Man City: 4.4, Real: 4.0, Liverpool: 4.0, Inter Milan: 3.6, Bayern: 3.1, Arsenal: 3.0, Barca: 3.0, Chelsea: 2.8, Dortmund: 2.6, Atleti: 2.5, Benfica: 2.4, Juve: 2.1, Atalanta: 2.0, Ajax: 1.5, Bilbao: 1.5, PSV: 1.5, Frankfurt: 1.5, Sporting: 1.5, Napoli: 1.5, Newcastle: 1.5, Tottenham: 1.5, Villarreal: 1.5, Brugges: 1.5, Gala: 1.0, Leverkusen: 1.0, Marseille: 1.0, Monaco: 1.0, Olympiakos: 1.0, Slavia Prague: 1.0, Union SG: 1.0, Copenhagen: 1.0, Qarabag: 1.0, Glimt: 1.0, Qairat: 1.0, Pafos: 1.0.
August 28, 2025 at 6:53 PM
c-hoell.bsky.social
As the short-time effects are comprised in the turnout variable for each party, it can be used to identify the current trend.
For the last three weeks:
CDU/CSU ↘️
SPD ↗️❗
Greens ➡️❗
Linke ➡️❗
BSW↗️
FDP ↗️
AFD ➡️❗
The model now says SPD was rising for some weeks, while Greens and Linke stay at their level.
Turnout strengths for the different political parties as a function of weeks since the last election. The trends described in the post only regard the last three weeks.
August 28, 2025 at 8:57 AM
c-hoell.bsky.social
Forsa's weekly poll sees AFD in front of CDU/CSU, but you should remain skeptical. The model is dismissing 3 of 4 Forsa and 5 of 6 Insa polls to account for their higher frequency (and B-tier performance).
Lines: polling averages as a function of weeks since the 2021 election. Dots: input data.
August 28, 2025 at 8:52 AM
c-hoell.bsky.social
#GermanPolls: Local elections in NRW will let a fifth of Germany vote soon and SPD looks to be on the rise!
Here are the polling averages computated in the ideology-turnout model (with changes to three weeks ago):
CDU/CSU 26 (=)
SPD 15 (+2)
Greens 11 (-1)
Linke 10 (-1)
BSW 4 (=)
FDP 4 (=)
AFD 23 (=)
Current polling averages, as described in the post. CDU/CSU is in front with 26%.
August 28, 2025 at 8:44 AM
c-hoell.bsky.social
Cheat sheet for your political communication:
If a voter in Germany deems a topic important, this is the current best guess which party they support. As you see, migration is mainly a topic for the far-right.
Data comes from last week's YouGov national poll for Germany.
#GermanPolitics #DataAnalysis
A table showing how probably a person supports a party by a political they deem important, ordered by overall frequency of the topic. Einwanderung (migration) has AFD at 47%, CDU/CSU at 29%, and the combined rest at 24%. Wirtschaft (economy): CDU/CSU 42, AFD 27, SPD 15, rest 28. Rente (pensions): AFD 28, CDU/CSU 24, SPD 15, rest 33. Wohnen (housing): CDU/CSU 20, AFD 18, SPD 16, Linke 15, rest 31. Verteidigung (defense): CDU/CSU 43, SPD 19, rest 38. Umweltschutz (environment): Greens 34, CDU/CSU 21, SPD 18, Linke 18, rest 10. Schere zwischen Arm und Reich (social inequality): Linke 26, Grüne 19, SPD 17, rest 38.
August 27, 2025 at 4:49 PM