Brian
@bwnash.bsky.social
Hiking, fitness, cooking, Japanese metal, and Braves baseball.
DevOps in finance by trade.
DevOps in finance by trade.
Yeah, I've tried. Futile to try to convince people. They want mushy canned green beans, canned artificial fried onions and gloppy canned soup. S&P only, not even garlic.
November 11, 2025 at 3:36 PM
Yeah, I've tried. Futile to try to convince people. They want mushy canned green beans, canned artificial fried onions and gloppy canned soup. S&P only, not even garlic.
They never heard of a prequel?
November 11, 2025 at 2:49 PM
They never heard of a prequel?
Jesus, that's amazing. I've been lifting a minute or ten, and I'd never aspire to *deadlifting* 500.
November 11, 2025 at 2:47 PM
Jesus, that's amazing. I've been lifting a minute or ten, and I'd never aspire to *deadlifting* 500.
That would be the best-case scenario. Many things have to go far better than expected for that to happen.
OpenAI has made $1.4 trillion in spending commitments by 2030. I strongly suspect the $12b annual revenue they tout is exaggerated; it's more like $4.2b through Q3, losing $12b last quarter.
OpenAI has made $1.4 trillion in spending commitments by 2030. I strongly suspect the $12b annual revenue they tout is exaggerated; it's more like $4.2b through Q3, losing $12b last quarter.
November 11, 2025 at 2:45 PM
That would be the best-case scenario. Many things have to go far better than expected for that to happen.
OpenAI has made $1.4 trillion in spending commitments by 2030. I strongly suspect the $12b annual revenue they tout is exaggerated; it's more like $4.2b through Q3, losing $12b last quarter.
OpenAI has made $1.4 trillion in spending commitments by 2030. I strongly suspect the $12b annual revenue they tout is exaggerated; it's more like $4.2b through Q3, losing $12b last quarter.
This *currently* has little in common with '08-09.
Not much leverage, nor the leveraged securities used then. Half the loans are from private credit, which is outside the banking system.
The rest is hyperscaler cashflow, and now, IG debt and other structured instruments. The latter are the concern
Not much leverage, nor the leveraged securities used then. Half the loans are from private credit, which is outside the banking system.
The rest is hyperscaler cashflow, and now, IG debt and other structured instruments. The latter are the concern
November 11, 2025 at 2:36 PM
This *currently* has little in common with '08-09.
Not much leverage, nor the leveraged securities used then. Half the loans are from private credit, which is outside the banking system.
The rest is hyperscaler cashflow, and now, IG debt and other structured instruments. The latter are the concern
Not much leverage, nor the leveraged securities used then. Half the loans are from private credit, which is outside the banking system.
The rest is hyperscaler cashflow, and now, IG debt and other structured instruments. The latter are the concern
No, not at all. They've just overextended, trying to compete with hyperscalers with far better finances, while taking on too much debt, while cashflow is going negative. A lot of their price action is predicated on OpenAI paying them $300b before 2030, and I'm betting that won't happen.
November 11, 2025 at 1:44 PM
No, not at all. They've just overextended, trying to compete with hyperscalers with far better finances, while taking on too much debt, while cashflow is going negative. A lot of their price action is predicated on OpenAI paying them $300b before 2030, and I'm betting that won't happen.
Disingenuous gaslighting.
It's clear centrist Democrats are just another op for the 1%.
It's clear centrist Democrats are just another op for the 1%.
November 11, 2025 at 12:51 PM
Disingenuous gaslighting.
It's clear centrist Democrats are just another op for the 1%.
It's clear centrist Democrats are just another op for the 1%.
NVDA is a designer. It owns no fabs. TSMC actually makes the GPUs under contract.
November 11, 2025 at 11:27 AM
NVDA is a designer. It owns no fabs. TSMC actually makes the GPUs under contract.
They publicly claim the proceeds will be used to buy more OpenAI.
November 11, 2025 at 11:22 AM
They publicly claim the proceeds will be used to buy more OpenAI.
I've come to the overall view that data center centers are the weakest link in the AI value chain.
November 11, 2025 at 1:15 AM
I've come to the overall view that data center centers are the weakest link in the AI value chain.
This piece got me thinking about the depreciation issue, FWIW. Burry is very right to talk about all this.
An AI Addendum - Praetorian Capital share.google/1SObrzG6i5O7...
An AI Addendum - Praetorian Capital share.google/1SObrzG6i5O7...
An AI Addendum
Last month, I chose to strip away all the hubris around AI and ask one simple question, one that oddly no one had really bothered to ask; how much revenue is needed to justify the current level of cap...
share.google
November 11, 2025 at 12:36 AM
This piece got me thinking about the depreciation issue, FWIW. Burry is very right to talk about all this.
An AI Addendum - Praetorian Capital share.google/1SObrzG6i5O7...
An AI Addendum - Praetorian Capital share.google/1SObrzG6i5O7...
I should write all this down at some point, but my actual job is a LOT right now.
November 11, 2025 at 12:30 AM
I should write all this down at some point, but my actual job is a LOT right now.
Not in one place. I've been taking a deep dive into data center economics and the mechanics of the credit.
Private credit is opaque unless you can find specific CUSIPs to review.
The leaseback contracts are oretty common. It's just that they used to be a sale-lease of the entire. Now it's GPUs.
Private credit is opaque unless you can find specific CUSIPs to review.
The leaseback contracts are oretty common. It's just that they used to be a sale-lease of the entire. Now it's GPUs.
November 11, 2025 at 12:29 AM
Not in one place. I've been taking a deep dive into data center economics and the mechanics of the credit.
Private credit is opaque unless you can find specific CUSIPs to review.
The leaseback contracts are oretty common. It's just that they used to be a sale-lease of the entire. Now it's GPUs.
Private credit is opaque unless you can find specific CUSIPs to review.
The leaseback contracts are oretty common. It's just that they used to be a sale-lease of the entire. Now it's GPUs.
The grift doesn't work without fairy dust.
November 11, 2025 at 12:20 AM
The grift doesn't work without fairy dust.
A Nazi's promise isn't worth shit.
If you're gonna sell us out for a bribe, at least us know how much so we can to match it.
If you're gonna sell us out for a bribe, at least us know how much so we can to match it.
November 11, 2025 at 12:18 AM
A Nazi's promise isn't worth shit.
If you're gonna sell us out for a bribe, at least us know how much so we can to match it.
If you're gonna sell us out for a bribe, at least us know how much so we can to match it.
Ah, just drop down another level and REPE MOVSDW
November 10, 2025 at 11:25 PM
Ah, just drop down another level and REPE MOVSDW
Companies are just holding $billions in rapidly-depreciating GPUs bought with borrowed money for data centers that haven't even broken ground yet.
It's fucking insane.
It's fucking insane.
November 10, 2025 at 11:02 PM
Companies are just holding $billions in rapidly-depreciating GPUs bought with borrowed money for data centers that haven't even broken ground yet.
It's fucking insane.
It's fucking insane.
That's gonna go just great with a federal administration completely hostile to wind, solar and geothermal.
November 10, 2025 at 10:59 PM
That's gonna go just great with a federal administration completely hostile to wind, solar and geothermal.
What's even more insane is, they're taking those GPUs, leasing them back to NVDA, then using those leaseback contracts to borrow *more* money to buy more GPUs.
Again, these are depreciating while they wait to be installed in data centers that haven't broken ground yet. Why?
Again, these are depreciating while they wait to be installed in data centers that haven't broken ground yet. Why?
November 10, 2025 at 9:06 PM
What's even more insane is, they're taking those GPUs, leasing them back to NVDA, then using those leaseback contracts to borrow *more* money to buy more GPUs.
Again, these are depreciating while they wait to be installed in data centers that haven't broken ground yet. Why?
Again, these are depreciating while they wait to be installed in data centers that haven't broken ground yet. Why?
This is correct. GPUs are 35% of data center costs and on a 3 yr depreciation curve. Yield is not perfect and many die from heat. NVDA will have new generations of GPU every year through 2029.
Yet companies are borrowing at private credit rates for data centers that won't open for 3 years.
Yet companies are borrowing at private credit rates for data centers that won't open for 3 years.
November 10, 2025 at 9:04 PM
This is correct. GPUs are 35% of data center costs and on a 3 yr depreciation curve. Yield is not perfect and many die from heat. NVDA will have new generations of GPU every year through 2029.
Yet companies are borrowing at private credit rates for data centers that won't open for 3 years.
Yet companies are borrowing at private credit rates for data centers that won't open for 3 years.
Was it really as trivial as old people not wanting their Thanksgiving plans disrupted?
The problem is, both Republicans and Democrats are afraid of the MAGA base, but neither is afraid of the Democratic base. Time to fix that bullshit.
The problem is, both Republicans and Democrats are afraid of the MAGA base, but neither is afraid of the Democratic base. Time to fix that bullshit.
November 10, 2025 at 7:55 PM
Was it really as trivial as old people not wanting their Thanksgiving plans disrupted?
The problem is, both Republicans and Democrats are afraid of the MAGA base, but neither is afraid of the Democratic base. Time to fix that bullshit.
The problem is, both Republicans and Democrats are afraid of the MAGA base, but neither is afraid of the Democratic base. Time to fix that bullshit.
From where I sit, CRWV and ORCL are the shorts. Waaay out over their skis.
Will be bumpy, because NVDA will keep goosing CRWV any time things start to look dodgy, and Ellison is Trump's dickrider.
Will be bumpy, because NVDA will keep goosing CRWV any time things start to look dodgy, and Ellison is Trump's dickrider.
November 10, 2025 at 6:07 PM
From where I sit, CRWV and ORCL are the shorts. Waaay out over their skis.
Will be bumpy, because NVDA will keep goosing CRWV any time things start to look dodgy, and Ellison is Trump's dickrider.
Will be bumpy, because NVDA will keep goosing CRWV any time things start to look dodgy, and Ellison is Trump's dickrider.
Pete, would YOU have caved on healthcare for millions just so you could have a nice convenient flight home from DC like the centrist quislings did?
November 10, 2025 at 5:51 PM
Pete, would YOU have caved on healthcare for millions just so you could have a nice convenient flight home from DC like the centrist quislings did?
The issue is, they're more afraid of the MAGA base than they are of their own Democratic base.
Time to change that up.
Time to change that up.
November 10, 2025 at 5:40 PM
The issue is, they're more afraid of the MAGA base than they are of their own Democratic base.
Time to change that up.
Time to change that up.