Brian
@bwnash.bsky.social
Hiking, fitness, cooking, Japanese metal, and Braves baseball.
DevOps in finance by trade.
DevOps in finance by trade.
Your opinion headline tomorrow
November 13, 2025 at 7:41 AM
Your opinion headline tomorrow
Hoooboy... Oracle 5 year credit default swaps. ORCL and CRWV are the two techs I'm short (for price action reasons, not because I know anything, which no one really does).
November 13, 2025 at 12:15 AM
Hoooboy... Oracle 5 year credit default swaps. ORCL and CRWV are the two techs I'm short (for price action reasons, not because I know anything, which no one really does).
That was a disastrous earnings report from CRWV.
Yes, revenue more than doubled, but operating expenses nearly tripled, operating income fell by 2/3rds and interest expenses tripled. Debt service is 6 times operating income.
Yes, revenue more than doubled, but operating expenses nearly tripled, operating income fell by 2/3rds and interest expenses tripled. Debt service is 6 times operating income.
November 11, 2025 at 6:04 PM
That was a disastrous earnings report from CRWV.
Yes, revenue more than doubled, but operating expenses nearly tripled, operating income fell by 2/3rds and interest expenses tripled. Debt service is 6 times operating income.
Yes, revenue more than doubled, but operating expenses nearly tripled, operating income fell by 2/3rds and interest expenses tripled. Debt service is 6 times operating income.
Very mixed quarter from Coreweave.
Revenue more than doubles, but operating expenses nearly triple, operating income falls by 2/3rds and interest expenses triple.
Debt is 3.81 times equity. Debt service is now 6 times operating income. Things have to break just right for them.
Revenue more than doubles, but operating expenses nearly triple, operating income falls by 2/3rds and interest expenses triple.
Debt is 3.81 times equity. Debt service is now 6 times operating income. Things have to break just right for them.
November 11, 2025 at 5:56 PM
Very mixed quarter from Coreweave.
Revenue more than doubles, but operating expenses nearly triple, operating income falls by 2/3rds and interest expenses triple.
Debt is 3.81 times equity. Debt service is now 6 times operating income. Things have to break just right for them.
Revenue more than doubles, but operating expenses nearly triple, operating income falls by 2/3rds and interest expenses triple.
Debt is 3.81 times equity. Debt service is now 6 times operating income. Things have to break just right for them.
Very mixed quarter from Coreweave.
Revenue more than doubles, while operating expenses nearly triple, operating income falls by 2/3rds and interest expenses triple.
But, hey revenues are higher.
I guess we'll see how long they can keep this thing in the air at this pace.
Wen profit?
Revenue more than doubles, while operating expenses nearly triple, operating income falls by 2/3rds and interest expenses triple.
But, hey revenues are higher.
I guess we'll see how long they can keep this thing in the air at this pace.
Wen profit?
November 11, 2025 at 4:00 PM
Very mixed quarter from Coreweave.
Revenue more than doubles, while operating expenses nearly triple, operating income falls by 2/3rds and interest expenses triple.
But, hey revenues are higher.
I guess we'll see how long they can keep this thing in the air at this pace.
Wen profit?
Revenue more than doubles, while operating expenses nearly triple, operating income falls by 2/3rds and interest expenses triple.
But, hey revenues are higher.
I guess we'll see how long they can keep this thing in the air at this pace.
Wen profit?
All snapped into place for me when I figured out what RPLDCI was in this chart.
It's a META SPV. Blue Owl built them an SPV, sold the bonds to Pimco. Coupon is paid from META leasing $2.2b/yr for 24 years (6.6% coupon).
$50b for $27b in loans JUST to keep it off-balance sheet. Hmmm...
It's a META SPV. Blue Owl built them an SPV, sold the bonds to Pimco. Coupon is paid from META leasing $2.2b/yr for 24 years (6.6% coupon).
$50b for $27b in loans JUST to keep it off-balance sheet. Hmmm...
November 9, 2025 at 3:22 PM
All snapped into place for me when I figured out what RPLDCI was in this chart.
It's a META SPV. Blue Owl built them an SPV, sold the bonds to Pimco. Coupon is paid from META leasing $2.2b/yr for 24 years (6.6% coupon).
$50b for $27b in loans JUST to keep it off-balance sheet. Hmmm...
It's a META SPV. Blue Owl built them an SPV, sold the bonds to Pimco. Coupon is paid from META leasing $2.2b/yr for 24 years (6.6% coupon).
$50b for $27b in loans JUST to keep it off-balance sheet. Hmmm...
Accountability thread for the week ending 11/8/2025.
3 days lifting to failure, 1 top half, 1 bottom, 1 back day. New PR preacher curls, 4 reps @ 155 using the EZ bar.
Body wouldn't take a 4th lift like the prior 2 weeks.
Took a full-body pic for progress, looking like a chubby armored bulldozer.
3 days lifting to failure, 1 top half, 1 bottom, 1 back day. New PR preacher curls, 4 reps @ 155 using the EZ bar.
Body wouldn't take a 4th lift like the prior 2 weeks.
Took a full-body pic for progress, looking like a chubby armored bulldozer.
November 9, 2025 at 12:01 PM
Accountability thread for the week ending 11/8/2025.
3 days lifting to failure, 1 top half, 1 bottom, 1 back day. New PR preacher curls, 4 reps @ 155 using the EZ bar.
Body wouldn't take a 4th lift like the prior 2 weeks.
Took a full-body pic for progress, looking like a chubby armored bulldozer.
3 days lifting to failure, 1 top half, 1 bottom, 1 back day. New PR preacher curls, 4 reps @ 155 using the EZ bar.
Body wouldn't take a 4th lift like the prior 2 weeks.
Took a full-body pic for progress, looking like a chubby armored bulldozer.
Wonder if the EICVAR string works on it?
November 8, 2025 at 9:58 PM
Wonder if the EICVAR string works on it?
Gotta say, this is really bothering me tonight (from CNN).
November 8, 2025 at 1:09 AM
Gotta say, this is really bothering me tonight (from CNN).
Vibe code lead, assisting junior devs.
November 7, 2025 at 3:31 PM
Vibe code lead, assisting junior devs.
I know PIMCO is on the hook for a ton of these, but it's spread thinly over their dozens of high-yield bond funds.
I see ORCL as the most vulnerable of the hyperscalers. I don't see any way OpenAI pays them the $300b they agreed to.
Now, it even looks like OpenAI is angling for a backstop.
I see ORCL as the most vulnerable of the hyperscalers. I don't see any way OpenAI pays them the $300b they agreed to.
Now, it even looks like OpenAI is angling for a backstop.
November 5, 2025 at 11:08 PM
I know PIMCO is on the hook for a ton of these, but it's spread thinly over their dozens of high-yield bond funds.
I see ORCL as the most vulnerable of the hyperscalers. I don't see any way OpenAI pays them the $300b they agreed to.
Now, it even looks like OpenAI is angling for a backstop.
I see ORCL as the most vulnerable of the hyperscalers. I don't see any way OpenAI pays them the $300b they agreed to.
Now, it even looks like OpenAI is angling for a backstop.
The talking point that hyperscalers are paying for CapEx out of cashflow died last week, and here they are, already angling for a government bailout/backstop.
Did they ever think of simply not committing to making over a $trillion in spending commitments in the next 3 years?
Did they ever think of simply not committing to making over a $trillion in spending commitments in the next 3 years?
November 5, 2025 at 9:53 PM
The talking point that hyperscalers are paying for CapEx out of cashflow died last week, and here they are, already angling for a government bailout/backstop.
Did they ever think of simply not committing to making over a $trillion in spending commitments in the next 3 years?
Did they ever think of simply not committing to making over a $trillion in spending commitments in the next 3 years?
Hope it's on streaming.
November 5, 2025 at 9:30 PM
Hope it's on streaming.
Yeah, well, China played it smart and didn't try to build AGI, just models that are factual, helpful, and can run easily on a single export-limited GPU cluster.
November 5, 2025 at 9:20 PM
Yeah, well, China played it smart and didn't try to build AGI, just models that are factual, helpful, and can run easily on a single export-limited GPU cluster.
This asshole... after all his assholery.
November 5, 2025 at 9:18 PM
This asshole... after all his assholery.
Smelling the sharp tang of flopsweat emanating from the oval.
November 5, 2025 at 2:48 PM
Smelling the sharp tang of flopsweat emanating from the oval.
Seen 3 interviews of him now. Yeah, something is really wrong there. Been stewing on this post today, seems to go the root of a lot of it.
November 4, 2025 at 5:55 PM
Seen 3 interviews of him now. Yeah, something is really wrong there. Been stewing on this post today, seems to go the root of a lot of it.
Alex Karp of Palantir is bugfuck nuts. He gave an unhinged rant of an interview this morning on CNBC.
He ranted about short-sellers (there is 2.2% short interest in PLTR).
He claimed this was the greatest earnings report ever from an enterprise software company (Microsoft had 77x PLTR's revenues).
He ranted about short-sellers (there is 2.2% short interest in PLTR).
He claimed this was the greatest earnings report ever from an enterprise software company (Microsoft had 77x PLTR's revenues).
November 4, 2025 at 5:37 PM
Alex Karp of Palantir is bugfuck nuts. He gave an unhinged rant of an interview this morning on CNBC.
He ranted about short-sellers (there is 2.2% short interest in PLTR).
He claimed this was the greatest earnings report ever from an enterprise software company (Microsoft had 77x PLTR's revenues).
He ranted about short-sellers (there is 2.2% short interest in PLTR).
He claimed this was the greatest earnings report ever from an enterprise software company (Microsoft had 77x PLTR's revenues).
This post explains a lot about SV CEOs.
November 4, 2025 at 3:44 PM
This post explains a lot about SV CEOs.