Bryan Knowles
brykno.bsky.social
Bryan Knowles
@brykno.bsky.social
Cleveland already loses tiebreakers to the Raiders, so their #1 seed elimination scenario is simpler.
November 11, 2025 at 4:23 AM
The Dolphins and Jets have identical HFA scenarios -- a loss, and wins by the Broncos, Chargers and... Cowboys?

Dallas plays Las Vegas, so we're knocking the Raiders out of the AFC West race to ensure no crazy tiebreakers atop the AFC that Miami or New York could win.
November 11, 2025 at 4:23 AM
Brian Daboll is gone! The Giants playoff hopes probably are, too, with a loss to the, ahem, offensive juggernaught Packers taking them out of the #1 seed this week.

The "Bears win" part is just consolidating the NFC North, with a Vikings loss.
November 11, 2025 at 4:23 AM
The Titans are out of the AFC South with a loss to the Texans. There are more complicated scenarios which kick them out of individual seeds, but they control their own divisional fate. Anti-fate?
November 11, 2025 at 4:23 AM
The Raiders are out of the AFC West with a loss and a win by both of the top teams in the division. Doesn't bode super well for them, though the fact they play on MNF means they might not be the ~first~ team out.
November 11, 2025 at 4:23 AM
It has been!

Still...
November 11, 2025 at 3:04 AM
Possible, though significantly less likely than it's been in past years.
November 10, 2025 at 7:02 PM
Very much so. Right now, FTN gives them an 8.2% chance to win the division; that will go up to ~15% if they beat the Steelers next week and drop to ~3% if they lose.

Depends a little on what happens with Baltimore, etc, but that's a must-win if they want to stay in division contention.
November 10, 2025 at 6:16 PM
Yes, mathematically, the Bengals can still make it going 4-4 or 3-5, but nah.
November 10, 2025 at 6:11 PM
It's really odd that halfway through the season, the Chiefs aren't in yet, yeah?
November 10, 2025 at 4:43 AM
NFC Playoffs, Cont.

8. 49ers
9. Panthers
10. Vikings
11. Cowboys
12. Cardinals (over ATL via conference record)
13. Falcons
14. Commanders
15. Saints (over NYG via head-to-head)
16. Giants
November 10, 2025 at 4:30 AM
If the Playoffs Started Today!
NFC:

1. Seahawks (over LAR via divisional record)
2. Eagles
3. Packers
4. Buccaneers
5. Rams
6. Lions (over CHI via head-to-head)
7. Bears
November 10, 2025 at 4:30 AM