Bryan Knowles
@brykno.bsky.social
Contributing Writer, FTN/DVOA
https://ko-fi.com/bryanknowles
https://ftnfantasy.com/contributor/bryanknowles
https://ko-fi.com/bryanknowles
https://ftnfantasy.com/contributor/bryanknowles
Updated scenarios after Thursday Night Football, with the Jets and Titans taking steps closer towards various eliminations with the Patriots coming out on top...
November 14, 2025 at 4:07 AM
Updated scenarios after Thursday Night Football, with the Jets and Titans taking steps closer towards various eliminations with the Patriots coming out on top...
The Giants are the fun team to do scenarios for right now because most long-shot scenarios are "hey, have you tried winning more games?" Most teams are within striking range of the playoffs if they just stop doing stupid things, like this one for the Browns.
v2.playoffpredictors.com/football/nfl...
v2.playoffpredictors.com/football/nfl...
November 12, 2025 at 8:14 PM
The Giants are the fun team to do scenarios for right now because most long-shot scenarios are "hey, have you tried winning more games?" Most teams are within striking range of the playoffs if they just stop doing stupid things, like this one for the Browns.
v2.playoffpredictors.com/football/nfl...
v2.playoffpredictors.com/football/nfl...
Brian Daboll is gone, Russell Wilson has been pushed to the third string, and the New York Giants are sitting at a 0.1% in FTN's playoff odds.
Does the comeback start here?! No. But it COULD! Like, mathematically speaking!
Does the comeback start here?! No. But it COULD! Like, mathematically speaking!
November 12, 2025 at 8:10 PM
Brian Daboll is gone, Russell Wilson has been pushed to the third string, and the New York Giants are sitting at a 0.1% in FTN's playoff odds.
Does the comeback start here?! No. But it COULD! Like, mathematically speaking!
Does the comeback start here?! No. But it COULD! Like, mathematically speaking!
Cleveland already loses tiebreakers to the Raiders, so their #1 seed elimination scenario is simpler.
November 11, 2025 at 4:23 AM
Cleveland already loses tiebreakers to the Raiders, so their #1 seed elimination scenario is simpler.
The Dolphins and Jets have identical HFA scenarios -- a loss, and wins by the Broncos, Chargers and... Cowboys?
Dallas plays Las Vegas, so we're knocking the Raiders out of the AFC West race to ensure no crazy tiebreakers atop the AFC that Miami or New York could win.
Dallas plays Las Vegas, so we're knocking the Raiders out of the AFC West race to ensure no crazy tiebreakers atop the AFC that Miami or New York could win.
November 11, 2025 at 4:23 AM
The Dolphins and Jets have identical HFA scenarios -- a loss, and wins by the Broncos, Chargers and... Cowboys?
Dallas plays Las Vegas, so we're knocking the Raiders out of the AFC West race to ensure no crazy tiebreakers atop the AFC that Miami or New York could win.
Dallas plays Las Vegas, so we're knocking the Raiders out of the AFC West race to ensure no crazy tiebreakers atop the AFC that Miami or New York could win.
Brian Daboll is gone! The Giants playoff hopes probably are, too, with a loss to the, ahem, offensive juggernaught Packers taking them out of the #1 seed this week.
The "Bears win" part is just consolidating the NFC North, with a Vikings loss.
The "Bears win" part is just consolidating the NFC North, with a Vikings loss.
November 11, 2025 at 4:23 AM
Brian Daboll is gone! The Giants playoff hopes probably are, too, with a loss to the, ahem, offensive juggernaught Packers taking them out of the #1 seed this week.
The "Bears win" part is just consolidating the NFC North, with a Vikings loss.
The "Bears win" part is just consolidating the NFC North, with a Vikings loss.
The Titans are out of the AFC South with a loss to the Texans. There are more complicated scenarios which kick them out of individual seeds, but they control their own divisional fate. Anti-fate?
November 11, 2025 at 4:23 AM
The Titans are out of the AFC South with a loss to the Texans. There are more complicated scenarios which kick them out of individual seeds, but they control their own divisional fate. Anti-fate?
The Raiders are out of the AFC West with a loss and a win by both of the top teams in the division. Doesn't bode super well for them, though the fact they play on MNF means they might not be the ~first~ team out.
November 11, 2025 at 4:23 AM
The Raiders are out of the AFC West with a loss and a win by both of the top teams in the division. Doesn't bode super well for them, though the fact they play on MNF means they might not be the ~first~ team out.
Matthew Stafford has now thrown at least four touchdown passes in three straight games.
Here's every such streak since the merger:
Here's every such streak since the merger:
November 10, 2025 at 1:17 AM
Matthew Stafford has now thrown at least four touchdown passes in three straight games.
Here's every such streak since the merger:
Here's every such streak since the merger:
70 yards actually doesn't end up changing the list at all -- none of these games had a QB rush for 70!
Switching it to 50 yards instead does knock out a few games.
Switching it to 50 yards instead does knock out a few games.
November 7, 2025 at 7:22 PM
70 yards actually doesn't end up changing the list at all -- none of these games had a QB rush for 70!
Switching it to 50 yards instead does knock out a few games.
Switching it to 50 yards instead does knock out a few games.
I can do that! 2018, first 50 starts, passer rating below 70, win:
November 7, 2025 at 6:56 PM
I can do that! 2018, first 50 starts, passer rating below 70, win:
Wins with a passer rating below 70 since the start of 2024:
Bo Nix may not, in fact, be It.
Bo Nix may not, in fact, be It.
November 7, 2025 at 6:42 PM
Wins with a passer rating below 70 since the start of 2024:
Bo Nix may not, in fact, be It.
Bo Nix may not, in fact, be It.
Oh, right, I was going to do the Titans, too!
...The Titans are in a lot of trouble.
...The Titans are in a lot of trouble.
November 6, 2025 at 7:02 AM
Oh, right, I was going to do the Titans, too!
...The Titans are in a lot of trouble.
...The Titans are in a lot of trouble.
Then there's the Browns (0.5%), which have the boring longshot scenario of "have you tried winning games? That tends to help!"
They have the third-easiest schedule remaining, so there's certainly beatable teams on their slate. They just need to, y'know, actually do it.
They have the third-easiest schedule remaining, so there's certainly beatable teams on their slate. They just need to, y'know, actually do it.
November 6, 2025 at 6:40 AM
Then there's the Browns (0.5%), which have the boring longshot scenario of "have you tried winning games? That tends to help!"
They have the third-easiest schedule remaining, so there's certainly beatable teams on their slate. They just need to, y'know, actually do it.
They have the third-easiest schedule remaining, so there's certainly beatable teams on their slate. They just need to, y'know, actually do it.
Your longshot scenarios in the AFC for the Dolphins (0.1%) and Raiders (0.9%) are also very similar. Both of them are in divisions that are running away from them, so it's all about catching the tail end of that wildcard race before its too late.
November 6, 2025 at 6:39 AM
Your longshot scenarios in the AFC for the Dolphins (0.1%) and Raiders (0.9%) are also very similar. Both of them are in divisions that are running away from them, so it's all about catching the tail end of that wildcard race before its too late.
Some real quick long-shot scenario stuff before Week 10 kicks off!
For the Giants (0.5% playoff odds) and Commanders (3.5%), their best path to a longshot playoff scenario involves taking down the NFC East title. That just requires the Eagles to fall, rather than a whole passel of wildcard teams.
For the Giants (0.5% playoff odds) and Commanders (3.5%), their best path to a longshot playoff scenario involves taking down the NFC East title. That just requires the Eagles to fall, rather than a whole passel of wildcard teams.
November 6, 2025 at 6:32 AM
Some real quick long-shot scenario stuff before Week 10 kicks off!
For the Giants (0.5% playoff odds) and Commanders (3.5%), their best path to a longshot playoff scenario involves taking down the NFC East title. That just requires the Eagles to fall, rather than a whole passel of wildcard teams.
For the Giants (0.5% playoff odds) and Commanders (3.5%), their best path to a longshot playoff scenario involves taking down the NFC East title. That just requires the Eagles to fall, rather than a whole passel of wildcard teams.
It's a stellar list of guys who will lose out to Bill Belichick in this year's Hall of Fame coaches semifinal.
November 5, 2025 at 7:21 PM
It's a stellar list of guys who will lose out to Bill Belichick in this year's Hall of Fame coaches semifinal.
As of right now, every NFL team can still earn any playoff seed.
But, for the first time this season, we have an elimination scenario! The Saints can be eliminated from contention from the #1 seed in the NFC if they lose to Carolina this week.
And so it begins...
But, for the first time this season, we have an elimination scenario! The Saints can be eliminated from contention from the #1 seed in the NFC if they lose to Carolina this week.
And so it begins...
November 4, 2025 at 4:13 AM
As of right now, every NFL team can still earn any playoff seed.
But, for the first time this season, we have an elimination scenario! The Saints can be eliminated from contention from the #1 seed in the NFC if they lose to Carolina this week.
And so it begins...
But, for the first time this season, we have an elimination scenario! The Saints can be eliminated from contention from the #1 seed in the NFC if they lose to Carolina this week.
And so it begins...
They say that CMC has passed Faulk for most games with both a receiving and rushing touchdown. That is true... as long as you don't include the playoffs.
Faulk did it against the Vikings as part of the GSOT in 1999, so CMC moves into a first-place tie with 16 after today.
No one else is close.
Faulk did it against the Vikings as part of the GSOT in 1999, so CMC moves into a first-place tie with 16 after today.
No one else is close.
November 2, 2025 at 10:05 PM
They say that CMC has passed Faulk for most games with both a receiving and rushing touchdown. That is true... as long as you don't include the playoffs.
Faulk did it against the Vikings as part of the GSOT in 1999, so CMC moves into a first-place tie with 16 after today.
No one else is close.
Faulk did it against the Vikings as part of the GSOT in 1999, so CMC moves into a first-place tie with 16 after today.
No one else is close.
Caleb Williams joins a fun list -- players with at least 10+ pass attempts and 2+ receptions in the same game.
November 2, 2025 at 8:36 PM
Caleb Williams joins a fun list -- players with at least 10+ pass attempts and 2+ receptions in the same game.
If we keep New Orleans at nine wins, that means we need to find six more losses for SF. We probably do not want one of them to be against the Bears, because CHI is another team that could swipe that seventh seed.
In this scenario, I picked NYG, LAR, ARI, CLE, IND, SEA, though there's wiggle room.
In this scenario, I picked NYG, LAR, ARI, CLE, IND, SEA, though there's wiggle room.
October 29, 2025 at 8:09 PM
If we keep New Orleans at nine wins, that means we need to find six more losses for SF. We probably do not want one of them to be against the Bears, because CHI is another team that could swipe that seventh seed.
In this scenario, I picked NYG, LAR, ARI, CLE, IND, SEA, though there's wiggle room.
In this scenario, I picked NYG, LAR, ARI, CLE, IND, SEA, though there's wiggle room.
Let's be blunt -- the Saints are almost out of time. Mathematically, they have to go 5-4 to make the playoffs, and they need to go 8-1 to have a greater than 5% shot.
I'm using that tiny bit of wriggle room here, letting them lose to the Rams in Shough's first start before running the table.
I'm using that tiny bit of wriggle room here, letting them lose to the Rams in Shough's first start before running the table.
October 29, 2025 at 8:09 PM
Let's be blunt -- the Saints are almost out of time. Mathematically, they have to go 5-4 to make the playoffs, and they need to go 8-1 to have a greater than 5% shot.
I'm using that tiny bit of wriggle room here, letting them lose to the Rams in Shough's first start before running the table.
I'm using that tiny bit of wriggle room here, letting them lose to the Rams in Shough's first start before running the table.
Just one longshot playoff scenario from me this week: Will the Tyler Shough era propel the New Orleans Saints into the playoffs, currently with an odds of 0.1%?
No. But ~maybe!~
No. But ~maybe!~
October 29, 2025 at 8:09 PM
Just one longshot playoff scenario from me this week: Will the Tyler Shough era propel the New Orleans Saints into the playoffs, currently with an odds of 0.1%?
No. But ~maybe!~
No. But ~maybe!~
Shockingly, uniform standards weren't quite as uniform in 1933 as they were today, especially because these were sewn-on strips and not printed elements.
I think, technically, it should go down to the pants on the slimmer players, with the linemen having bellies out.
That may be ~too~ accurate.
I think, technically, it should go down to the pants on the slimmer players, with the linemen having bellies out.
That may be ~too~ accurate.
October 27, 2025 at 1:07 AM
Shockingly, uniform standards weren't quite as uniform in 1933 as they were today, especially because these were sewn-on strips and not printed elements.
I think, technically, it should go down to the pants on the slimmer players, with the linemen having bellies out.
That may be ~too~ accurate.
I think, technically, it should go down to the pants on the slimmer players, with the linemen having bellies out.
That may be ~too~ accurate.
Can't get behind that, I'm afraid.
October 27, 2025 at 12:39 AM
Can't get behind that, I'm afraid.