@bill-emerson.bsky.social
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NEW POST: ‘There Is No Training For This’ thefelderreport.com/2026/01/31/t...
'There Is No Training For This'
Below are some of the most interesting things I came across this week. Click here to subscribe to our free weekly newsletter and get this post delivered to your inbox each Saturday morning.
QUOTE
The ...
thefelderreport.com
January 31, 2026 at 7:12 PM
NEW POST: ‘There Is No Training For This’ thefelderreport.com/2026/01/31/t...
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‘The number of Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings by businesses was the highest in the third quarter of 2025 (the most recent quarter for which data is available) since 2011.’ adamjosephson.substack.com/p/running-th...
February 2, 2026 at 3:35 PM
‘The number of Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings by businesses was the highest in the third quarter of 2025 (the most recent quarter for which data is available) since 2011.’ adamjosephson.substack.com/p/running-th...
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‘BlackRock’s BDC surprised investors last week when it disclosed a 19% decline in the NAV of the investments it owns. The fund, which reported total assets of $1.8B in Sep., blamed the write-downs on the poor performance of investments in the last quarter of 2025.’ www.wsj.com/finance/inve...
How a BlackRock Loss Reignited Worries About What Is Hiding in Private Credit
Fund had marked investments as full-valued as recently as November, before disclosing a 19% decline last week.
www.wsj.com
February 2, 2026 at 3:39 PM
‘BlackRock’s BDC surprised investors last week when it disclosed a 19% decline in the NAV of the investments it owns. The fund, which reported total assets of $1.8B in Sep., blamed the write-downs on the poor performance of investments in the last quarter of 2025.’ www.wsj.com/finance/inve...
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‘Since S&P 500 employment peaked in February 2025, companies have reduced staff by more than at any time since 2009! Moreover, anytime since at least 1990 when there has been a notable staff reduction, real S&P EPS have usually come under pressure.‘ paulsenperspectives.substack.com/p/a-us-econo...
February 2, 2026 at 4:02 PM
‘Since S&P 500 employment peaked in February 2025, companies have reduced staff by more than at any time since 2009! Moreover, anytime since at least 1990 when there has been a notable staff reduction, real S&P EPS have usually come under pressure.‘ paulsenperspectives.substack.com/p/a-us-econo...
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The go on to give the dates.
Today (-8.2 ppts)
4/24/2000: -8.5 ppts
3/2/2001: -8.8 ppts
7/12/1990: -8.8 ppts
4/3/2000: -10.9 ppts
You will all know the 00-01 dates but mid July 1990 was a top, 2 wks before Iraq invaded Kuwait
Today (-8.2 ppts)
4/24/2000: -8.5 ppts
3/2/2001: -8.8 ppts
7/12/1990: -8.8 ppts
4/3/2000: -10.9 ppts
You will all know the 00-01 dates but mid July 1990 was a top, 2 wks before Iraq invaded Kuwait
January 29, 2026 at 4:11 PM
The go on to give the dates.
Today (-8.2 ppts)
4/24/2000: -8.5 ppts
3/2/2001: -8.8 ppts
7/12/1990: -8.8 ppts
4/3/2000: -10.9 ppts
You will all know the 00-01 dates but mid July 1990 was a top, 2 wks before Iraq invaded Kuwait
Today (-8.2 ppts)
4/24/2000: -8.5 ppts
3/2/2001: -8.8 ppts
7/12/1990: -8.8 ppts
4/3/2000: -10.9 ppts
You will all know the 00-01 dates but mid July 1990 was a top, 2 wks before Iraq invaded Kuwait
Explore this gift article from The New York Times. You can read it for free without a subscription. www.nytimes.com/2025/12/19/o...
Opinion | Mitt Romney: Tax the Rich, Like Me
www.nytimes.com
December 21, 2025 at 1:30 PM
Explore this gift article from The New York Times. You can read it for free without a subscription. www.nytimes.com/2025/12/19/o...
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Great speech, Trump, but I think the American people have already spoken.
December 18, 2025 at 2:38 AM
Great speech, Trump, but I think the American people have already spoken.
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I am so sick of this man and the constant chaos and cruelty.
He creates the former because he is empty inside and indulges in the latter because it makes him feel something.
I cannot wait for him to be gone from our lives.
He creates the former because he is empty inside and indulges in the latter because it makes him feel something.
I cannot wait for him to be gone from our lives.
December 17, 2025 at 12:22 AM
I am so sick of this man and the constant chaos and cruelty.
He creates the former because he is empty inside and indulges in the latter because it makes him feel something.
I cannot wait for him to be gone from our lives.
He creates the former because he is empty inside and indulges in the latter because it makes him feel something.
I cannot wait for him to be gone from our lives.
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“Six-month realized correlation is sitting near the lows of the past 25 years. That has helped suppress index-level volatility, but it masks the increasingly violent moves happening beneath the surface.” www.dailychartbook.com/p/817 via @dailychartbook.bsky.social
December 16, 2025 at 3:05 PM
“Six-month realized correlation is sitting near the lows of the past 25 years. That has helped suppress index-level volatility, but it masks the increasingly violent moves happening beneath the surface.” www.dailychartbook.com/p/817 via @dailychartbook.bsky.social
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“IPO activity is finally heating up — and has room to get ‘climactic’... SpaceX, OpenAI, Databricks, Anthropic are all likely to list in 2026. Combined, they would easily make 2026 the biggest year for IPOs in history. What stage of the cycle will that be?” www.dailychartbook.com/p/817
December 16, 2025 at 3:08 PM
“IPO activity is finally heating up — and has room to get ‘climactic’... SpaceX, OpenAI, Databricks, Anthropic are all likely to list in 2026. Combined, they would easily make 2026 the biggest year for IPOs in history. What stage of the cycle will that be?” www.dailychartbook.com/p/817
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‘Although the US population continues to grow each year, the number of families with children under 18 reached a peak of around 37 million in 2007 and has declined to approximately 33 million in 2024.’ www.apolloacademy.com/us-demograph...
December 16, 2025 at 4:05 PM
‘Although the US population continues to grow each year, the number of families with children under 18 reached a peak of around 37 million in 2007 and has declined to approximately 33 million in 2024.’ www.apolloacademy.com/us-demograph...
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“The true advisability of all these policies will reveal themselves eventually. But I certainly wouldn’t be alone in analogizing the trend toward deregulation in this current environment to the period immediately prior to the stock market crash in 1929.“ www.politico.com/news/magazin...
‘I Worry People Are Going to Get Hurt in the Short Term’
Outgoing SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw lets loose in a new interview.
www.politico.com
December 15, 2025 at 4:55 PM
“The true advisability of all these policies will reveal themselves eventually. But I certainly wouldn’t be alone in analogizing the trend toward deregulation in this current environment to the period immediately prior to the stock market crash in 1929.“ www.politico.com/news/magazin...
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‘NVIDIA has, according to its November 10-Q, agreed to $26 billion in cloud compute deals... The reason Jensen Huang said back in October that AI compute demand had gone up "substantially" in the last six months was because NVIDIA had stepped in to increase it.‘ www.wheresyoured.at/ai-mythbuste...
December 15, 2025 at 6:11 PM
‘NVIDIA has, according to its November 10-Q, agreed to $26 billion in cloud compute deals... The reason Jensen Huang said back in October that AI compute demand had gone up "substantially" in the last six months was because NVIDIA had stepped in to increase it.‘ www.wheresyoured.at/ai-mythbuste...
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‘When U.S. consumer spending has been led by low-income retailors like Walmart (i.e., when Walmart stock significantly outperforms high-end retailors), corporate profits have typically weakened.’ paulsenperspectives.substack.com/p/telltales?...
December 15, 2025 at 6:01 PM
‘When U.S. consumer spending has been led by low-income retailors like Walmart (i.e., when Walmart stock significantly outperforms high-end retailors), corporate profits have typically weakened.’ paulsenperspectives.substack.com/p/telltales?...
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The AI Capex Boom Is Shifting Toward a More Dangerous Phase of Exponential Growth www.bridgewater.com/research-and...
December 15, 2025 at 5:57 PM
The AI Capex Boom Is Shifting Toward a More Dangerous Phase of Exponential Growth www.bridgewater.com/research-and...
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“From a fundamental perspective, the key risk to Goldman's earnings forecasts is the trajectory of profit margins... recent NABE and regional Fed surveys indicate corporate concern regarding the relative pace of input cost and pricing inflation.” www.dailychartbook.com/p/816
December 13, 2025 at 4:58 PM
“From a fundamental perspective, the key risk to Goldman's earnings forecasts is the trajectory of profit margins... recent NABE and regional Fed surveys indicate corporate concern regarding the relative pace of input cost and pricing inflation.” www.dailychartbook.com/p/816
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Japan’s small, efficient kei cars start at just over $10,000. on.wsj.com/4ab4iiV
Japanese kei cars—tiny, fuel efficient vehicles—might be coming to the U.S. soon
Japan’s small, efficient kei cars start at just over $10,000.
on.wsj.com
December 13, 2025 at 5:02 PM
Japan’s small, efficient kei cars start at just over $10,000. on.wsj.com/4ab4iiV
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Hedge Fund Leverage Rising Rapidly www.apolloacademy.com/hedge-fund-l...
December 13, 2025 at 5:03 PM
Hedge Fund Leverage Rising Rapidly www.apolloacademy.com/hedge-fund-l...
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‘Nvidia plans to host a private summit next week with startups focused on solving data center power problems that could hold up the development of artificial intelligence, according to several people who were invited.’ www.theinformation.com/briefings/nv...
Nvidia To Host Summit On Data Center Power Shortage
Nvidia plans to host a private summit next week with startups focused on solving data center power problems that could hold up the development of artificial intelligence, according to several people w...
www.theinformation.com
December 12, 2025 at 4:23 PM
‘Nvidia plans to host a private summit next week with startups focused on solving data center power problems that could hold up the development of artificial intelligence, according to several people who were invited.’ www.theinformation.com/briefings/nv...
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‘Pinterest has saved 90% of the cost of using brand-name AI by relying on open source models, according to Pinterest CEO Bill Ready.’ www.theinformation.com/briefings/pi...
Pinterest Saving 90% on AI Models Through Open Source, Ready Says
Pinterest has saved 90% of the cost of using brand-name AI by relying on open source models, according to Pinterest CEO Bill Ready.
Speaking in an interview on The Information’s TITV , Ready said ...
www.theinformation.com
December 12, 2025 at 4:25 PM
‘Pinterest has saved 90% of the cost of using brand-name AI by relying on open source models, according to Pinterest CEO Bill Ready.’ www.theinformation.com/briefings/pi...
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‘The scale of the effort — which on the lower end approaches the Chips Act and at the maximum end translates into the largest-ever state-backed semiconductor program conceived — underscores Beijing’s resolve to reduce reliance on foreign chipmakers such as Nvidia.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
China Prepares as Much as $70 Billion in Chip Sector Incentives
China is considering a package of incentives worth as much as $70 billion to bankroll and support its chipmaking industry, pouring more state money into a sector it deems pivotal to its technological ...
www.bloomberg.com
December 12, 2025 at 4:28 PM
‘The scale of the effort — which on the lower end approaches the Chips Act and at the maximum end translates into the largest-ever state-backed semiconductor program conceived — underscores Beijing’s resolve to reduce reliance on foreign chipmakers such as Nvidia.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Howard Marks: “One key risk to consider is the possibility that the boom in data center construction will result in a glut. Some data centers may be rendered uneconomic, and some owners may go bankrupt.” www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
AI Data Center Boom Sparks Fears of Glut Amid Lending Frenzy
Two data center billionaires minted before anything is even built. A borrower seeking a loan for 150% of the construction cost. And companies that are using financial engineering to keep liabilities o...
www.bloomberg.com
December 12, 2025 at 4:33 PM
Howard Marks: “One key risk to consider is the possibility that the boom in data center construction will result in a glut. Some data centers may be rendered uneconomic, and some owners may go bankrupt.” www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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'Huang has been at the centre of one of the biggest investment programmes ever conducted by the private sector — one that has both propped up the US economy and sustained a stock market boom.’ www.ft.com/content/11a0...
FT Person of the Year: Jensen Huang
The Nvidia chief executive has been the driving force behind the massive AI boom that has the capacity to reshape the global economy
www.ft.com
December 12, 2025 at 4:49 PM
'Huang has been at the centre of one of the biggest investment programmes ever conducted by the private sector — one that has both propped up the US economy and sustained a stock market boom.’ www.ft.com/content/11a0...
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If someone's a buyer of this chart we can't be market friends:
December 11, 2025 at 6:14 PM
If someone's a buyer of this chart we can't be market friends:
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‘Inflation is not only elevated but rising, and here they are cutting rates anyway. So I don’t think it’s crazy when people say that implicitly the Fed has already abandoned its target.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
Where Does the Fed’s Inflation Target Stand Now?
Hello and welcome to the newsletter, a grab bag of daily content from the Odd Lots universe. Sometimes it's us, Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway, bringing you our thoughts on the most recent developme...
www.bloomberg.com
December 11, 2025 at 6:15 PM
‘Inflation is not only elevated but rising, and here they are cutting rates anyway. So I don’t think it’s crazy when people say that implicitly the Fed has already abandoned its target.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...