Benn Steil
@bennsteil.bsky.social
Director of International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations. Award-winning author, THE WORLD THAT WASN'T, THE MARSHALL PLAN, & THE BATTLE OF BRETTON WOODS. Future HC of NYJ.
Studies have shown that tariffs depress productivity in protected industries. As I show in my latest @CFR.org Geo-Graphics blog post with Elisabeth Harding, U.S. steel is a case in point . . .
"Steel Productivity has Plummeted Since Trump’s 2018 Tariffs"
www.cfr.org/blog/steel-p...
"Steel Productivity has Plummeted Since Trump’s 2018 Tariffs"
www.cfr.org/blog/steel-p...
March 7, 2025 at 1:00 AM
Studies have shown that tariffs depress productivity in protected industries. As I show in my latest @CFR.org Geo-Graphics blog post with Elisabeth Harding, U.S. steel is a case in point . . .
"Steel Productivity has Plummeted Since Trump’s 2018 Tariffs"
www.cfr.org/blog/steel-p...
"Steel Productivity has Plummeted Since Trump’s 2018 Tariffs"
www.cfr.org/blog/steel-p...
In my latest for @foreignaffairs.com, I propose a far more effective way to counter China’s unfair trade practices than tariffs—that is, by targeting the US capital account surplus with China, rather than the mirror-image current account deficit. Here's how...
www.foreignaffairs.com/guest-pass/r...
www.foreignaffairs.com/guest-pass/r...
A Better Tool to Counter China’s Unfair Trade Practices
End the tax advantage for Chinese investors in U.S. markets.
www.foreignaffairs.com
February 19, 2025 at 4:28 PM
In my latest for @foreignaffairs.com, I propose a far more effective way to counter China’s unfair trade practices than tariffs—that is, by targeting the US capital account surplus with China, rather than the mirror-image current account deficit. Here's how...
www.foreignaffairs.com/guest-pass/r...
www.foreignaffairs.com/guest-pass/r...
Reposted by Benn Steil
For more timely analysis on trade, tariffs, and Trumponomics, see our new hub, with data, videos, and explainers from @cfr.org experts like @bennsteil.bsky.social @edwardalden.bsky.social and @inumanak.bsky.social 📊🔍🧵(6/6) www.cfr.org/trade-tariff...
Trade, Tariffs and Trumponomics
www.cfr.org
February 15, 2025 at 6:10 PM
For more timely analysis on trade, tariffs, and Trumponomics, see our new hub, with data, videos, and explainers from @cfr.org experts like @bennsteil.bsky.social @edwardalden.bsky.social and @inumanak.bsky.social 📊🔍🧵(6/6) www.cfr.org/trade-tariff...
Trump's tariff pledges, if carried out, could knock over a trillion dollars off cumulative U.S. GDP by the end of 2028.
My new @CFR.org Geo-Graphics blog post with Elisabeth Harding . . .
cfr.org/blog/growth-...
My new @CFR.org Geo-Graphics blog post with Elisabeth Harding . . .
cfr.org/blog/growth-...
The Growth Hit From Trump’s Tariffs
Trump’s tariffs will hit U.S. growth. We estimate the impact over time.
cfr.org
February 6, 2025 at 5:27 PM
Trump's tariff pledges, if carried out, could knock over a trillion dollars off cumulative U.S. GDP by the end of 2028.
My new @CFR.org Geo-Graphics blog post with Elisabeth Harding . . .
cfr.org/blog/growth-...
My new @CFR.org Geo-Graphics blog post with Elisabeth Harding . . .
cfr.org/blog/growth-...
The @CFR.org Global Monetary Policy Tracker is updated. With China, by our algorithm, having shifted from a loosening to a neutral stance, our CFR Index of Global Easing (-)/ Tightening (+) rises slightly from -8.54/10 to -8.31/10.
cfr.org/global/globa...
cfr.org/global/globa...
February 6, 2025 at 12:13 AM
The @CFR.org Global Monetary Policy Tracker is updated. With China, by our algorithm, having shifted from a loosening to a neutral stance, our CFR Index of Global Easing (-)/ Tightening (+) rises slightly from -8.54/10 to -8.31/10.
cfr.org/global/globa...
cfr.org/global/globa...
Congressional passivity in the face of one man's irrational obsession with tariff machismo is a grave abdication of constitutional responsibility.
February 2, 2025 at 10:50 PM
Congressional passivity in the face of one man's irrational obsession with tariff machismo is a grave abdication of constitutional responsibility.
Here is the actual post:
cfr.org/blog/92-perc...
"The president is therefore right when he says farmers 'got' his tariff money. That money came not from China, however, but from taxes he imposed on Americans" . . .
cfr.org/blog/92-perc...
"The president is therefore right when he says farmers 'got' his tariff money. That money came not from China, however, but from taxes he imposed on Americans" . . .
February 1, 2025 at 9:07 PM
Here is the actual post:
cfr.org/blog/92-perc...
"The president is therefore right when he says farmers 'got' his tariff money. That money came not from China, however, but from taxes he imposed on Americans" . . .
cfr.org/blog/92-perc...
"The president is therefore right when he says farmers 'got' his tariff money. That money came not from China, however, but from taxes he imposed on Americans" . . .
FOMC members’ 1-year, 2-year, and 3-year “dot plot” rate projections are appalling guides to actual rate-setting. Here's why this makes "forward guidance" pernicious . . .
cfr.org/blog/why-fed...
cfr.org/blog/why-fed...
Why the Fed Should Stop Forward Guidance
If the Fed can’t predict the future path of the economy, it shouldn’t be predicting its own policy decisions.
cfr.org
January 31, 2025 at 9:33 PM
FOMC members’ 1-year, 2-year, and 3-year “dot plot” rate projections are appalling guides to actual rate-setting. Here's why this makes "forward guidance" pernicious . . .
cfr.org/blog/why-fed...
cfr.org/blog/why-fed...
"Why the Fed Should Stop Forward Guidance"
My latest @CFR.org Geo-Graphics blog post with Elisabeth Harding . . .
www.cfr.org/blog/why-fed...
My latest @CFR.org Geo-Graphics blog post with Elisabeth Harding . . .
www.cfr.org/blog/why-fed...
Why the Fed Should Stop Forward Guidance
If the Fed can’t predict the future path of the economy, it shouldn’t be predicting its own policy decisions.
www.cfr.org
January 31, 2025 at 6:13 PM
"Why the Fed Should Stop Forward Guidance"
My latest @CFR.org Geo-Graphics blog post with Elisabeth Harding . . .
www.cfr.org/blog/why-fed...
My latest @CFR.org Geo-Graphics blog post with Elisabeth Harding . . .
www.cfr.org/blog/why-fed...
My column in today's Barron's . . .
"The Fed Doesn’t Have a Crystal Ball. It Should Quit the Predictions."
barrons.com/articles/fed...
"The Fed Doesn’t Have a Crystal Ball. It Should Quit the Predictions."
barrons.com/articles/fed...
The Fed Should Stop Giving Forward Guidance About Its Interest Rate Plans
The Fed can give forward guidance, or it can be data dependent, but not both, Benn Steil and Elisabeth Harding write in a guest commentary.
barrons.com
January 29, 2025 at 4:10 PM
My column in today's Barron's . . .
"The Fed Doesn’t Have a Crystal Ball. It Should Quit the Predictions."
barrons.com/articles/fed...
"The Fed Doesn’t Have a Crystal Ball. It Should Quit the Predictions."
barrons.com/articles/fed...
My CFR Global Imbalances Tracker is updated.
The big imbalance story of 2024 is the United States and China, with the former achieving a trillion-dollar trade deficit and the latter a near-equivalent surplus.
www.cfr.org/report/globa...
The big imbalance story of 2024 is the United States and China, with the former achieving a trillion-dollar trade deficit and the latter a near-equivalent surplus.
www.cfr.org/report/globa...
January 28, 2025 at 7:03 PM
My CFR Global Imbalances Tracker is updated.
The big imbalance story of 2024 is the United States and China, with the former achieving a trillion-dollar trade deficit and the latter a near-equivalent surplus.
www.cfr.org/report/globa...
The big imbalance story of 2024 is the United States and China, with the former achieving a trillion-dollar trade deficit and the latter a near-equivalent surplus.
www.cfr.org/report/globa...
My CFR Global Trade Tracker is updated.
After falling by 5% in 2023, the value of global goods trade rebounded by an estimated 2% in 2024. Trump-triggered tariff wars, however, threaten to hit trade hard in 2025.
www.cfr.org/tracker/glob...
After falling by 5% in 2023, the value of global goods trade rebounded by an estimated 2% in 2024. Trump-triggered tariff wars, however, threaten to hit trade hard in 2025.
www.cfr.org/tracker/glob...
January 28, 2025 at 7:01 PM
My CFR Global Trade Tracker is updated.
After falling by 5% in 2023, the value of global goods trade rebounded by an estimated 2% in 2024. Trump-triggered tariff wars, however, threaten to hit trade hard in 2025.
www.cfr.org/tracker/glob...
After falling by 5% in 2023, the value of global goods trade rebounded by an estimated 2% in 2024. Trump-triggered tariff wars, however, threaten to hit trade hard in 2025.
www.cfr.org/tracker/glob...
The logic of this audition tape op-ed is ridiculous.
Yes, Kevin, it is "the Fed's job is to stop second-order effects of price changes."
How does it do that, Kevin?
Tighter monetary policy.
wsj.com/opinion/the-... via @WSJopinion
Yes, Kevin, it is "the Fed's job is to stop second-order effects of price changes."
How does it do that, Kevin?
Tighter monetary policy.
wsj.com/opinion/the-... via @WSJopinion
Opinion | The Fed Can’t Pin Inflation on Trump
The central bank has the power to maintain stable prices, and there is more to the President-elect’s economic policy than tariffs.
wsj.com
January 16, 2025 at 6:50 PM
The logic of this audition tape op-ed is ridiculous.
Yes, Kevin, it is "the Fed's job is to stop second-order effects of price changes."
How does it do that, Kevin?
Tighter monetary policy.
wsj.com/opinion/the-... via @WSJopinion
Yes, Kevin, it is "the Fed's job is to stop second-order effects of price changes."
How does it do that, Kevin?
Tighter monetary policy.
wsj.com/opinion/the-... via @WSJopinion
Reposted by Benn Steil
Nice illustration of how national security exceptions at the WTO have ballooned, reaching an all-time high of 95 in 2024, via @bennsteil.bsky.social, Elisabeth Harding, @cfr.org
Since 2017:
🇺🇸: 30
🇲🇽: 14
🇨🇭: 12
🇧🇷: 10
🇸🇦: 8
www.cfr.org/blog/soaring...
Since 2017:
🇺🇸: 30
🇲🇽: 14
🇨🇭: 12
🇧🇷: 10
🇸🇦: 8
www.cfr.org/blog/soaring...
January 6, 2025 at 1:32 PM
Nice illustration of how national security exceptions at the WTO have ballooned, reaching an all-time high of 95 in 2024, via @bennsteil.bsky.social, Elisabeth Harding, @cfr.org
Since 2017:
🇺🇸: 30
🇲🇽: 14
🇨🇭: 12
🇧🇷: 10
🇸🇦: 8
www.cfr.org/blog/soaring...
Since 2017:
🇺🇸: 30
🇲🇽: 14
🇨🇭: 12
🇧🇷: 10
🇸🇦: 8
www.cfr.org/blog/soaring...
Why I'm here, reason 42.
December 21, 2024 at 2:26 PM
Why I'm here, reason 42.
Soaring Abuse of “National Security” Exceptions Has Wrecked the Multilateral Trading System
My latest CFR Geo-Graphics blog post . . .
on.cfr.org/3ZZRTc6
My latest CFR Geo-Graphics blog post . . .
on.cfr.org/3ZZRTc6
Soaring Abuse of “National Security” Exceptions Has Wrecked the Multilateral Trading System
Since 2019, there has been a massive surge in “National Security” notifications at the WTO. Many of these are covers for rank protectionism.
on.cfr.org
December 19, 2024 at 10:58 PM
Soaring Abuse of “National Security” Exceptions Has Wrecked the Multilateral Trading System
My latest CFR Geo-Graphics blog post . . .
on.cfr.org/3ZZRTc6
My latest CFR Geo-Graphics blog post . . .
on.cfr.org/3ZZRTc6
My latest Barron's column argues that the surge in “national security” Notifications and the demise of the dispute settlement mechanism have effectively killed the WTO's stewardship of the multilateral trading system.
(Click on the "X" at the link below for access.)
www.barrons.com/articles/how...
(Click on the "X" at the link below for access.)
www.barrons.com/articles/how...
The WTO Has Been Crippled by Trump and Biden’s Reliance on National Security Exemptions
The global trading regime appears unsalvageable after the Trump and Biden administrations blocked Appellate Body nominations and invoked national security, Benn Steil and Elisabeth Harding write in a ...
www.barrons.com
December 12, 2024 at 9:34 PM
My latest Barron's column argues that the surge in “national security” Notifications and the demise of the dispute settlement mechanism have effectively killed the WTO's stewardship of the multilateral trading system.
(Click on the "X" at the link below for access.)
www.barrons.com/articles/how...
(Click on the "X" at the link below for access.)
www.barrons.com/articles/how...
The @cfr.org Sovereign Risk Tracker is updated.
10 countries have our highest default-risk rating (10)—meaning a 50%+ chance of default in the next 5 years: Argentina, Belarus, Ghana, Lebanon, Pakistan, Russia, Sri Lanka, Tunisia, Ukraine, & Venezuela.
on.cfr.org/48kSWoC
10 countries have our highest default-risk rating (10)—meaning a 50%+ chance of default in the next 5 years: Argentina, Belarus, Ghana, Lebanon, Pakistan, Russia, Sri Lanka, Tunisia, Ukraine, & Venezuela.
on.cfr.org/48kSWoC
November 18, 2024 at 8:34 PM
The @cfr.org Sovereign Risk Tracker is updated.
10 countries have our highest default-risk rating (10)—meaning a 50%+ chance of default in the next 5 years: Argentina, Belarus, Ghana, Lebanon, Pakistan, Russia, Sri Lanka, Tunisia, Ukraine, & Venezuela.
on.cfr.org/48kSWoC
10 countries have our highest default-risk rating (10)—meaning a 50%+ chance of default in the next 5 years: Argentina, Belarus, Ghana, Lebanon, Pakistan, Russia, Sri Lanka, Tunisia, Ukraine, & Venezuela.
on.cfr.org/48kSWoC
