Prof. Benjamin Forest
@benjaminforest.bsky.social
Associate Professor of Geography, McGill University; Centre for the Study of Democratic Citizenship; McGill Institute for the Study of Canada. Political representation, identity, and politics of memory. Also, dogs.
Opinions and bad puns are my own
Opinions and bad puns are my own
This is not bad – with caveats. The CBC’s own forecast range for the LPC (141-217) included the actual results, albeit with much wider range. Increasing the standard deviation for the vote shares in the simulations to 10% from 5% produces ranges that include the actual results.
April 30, 2025 at 4:08 PM
This is not bad – with caveats. The CBC’s own forecast range for the LPC (141-217) included the actual results, albeit with much wider range. Increasing the standard deviation for the vote shares in the simulations to 10% from 5% produces ranges that include the actual results.
The model under predicted the NDP (0-3) and over-predicted the LPC (174-202), although combining my earlier guestimate of 7 seats for the NDP with the assumption that these seats would have otherwise gone to the LPC puts the low Liberal forecast at 170.
April 30, 2025 at 4:08 PM
The model under predicted the NDP (0-3) and over-predicted the LPC (174-202), although combining my earlier guestimate of 7 seats for the NDP with the assumption that these seats would have otherwise gone to the LPC puts the low Liberal forecast at 170.
Like the CPC, the Bloc (23) over-performed but is within the model’s range. As expected, the NDP (7) had a bad night. As I had guessed, they did better than the model’s forecast of 0-1. I’ll post again once the results are finalized.
April 29, 2025 at 1:13 PM
Like the CPC, the Bloc (23) over-performed but is within the model’s range. As expected, the NDP (7) had a bad night. As I had guessed, they did better than the model’s forecast of 0-1. I’ll post again once the results are finalized.
Like the CPC, the Bloc (23) over-performed but is within the model’s range. As expected, the NDP (7) had a bad night, but did better than the model’s forecast of 0-1. I’ll post again once the results are finalized.
April 29, 2025 at 1:08 PM
Like the CPC, the Bloc (23) over-performed but is within the model’s range. As expected, the NDP (7) had a bad night, but did better than the model’s forecast of 0-1. I’ll post again once the results are finalized.
In contrast, with one or two exceptions, where the LPC and NDP are close, they are fighting for 2nd place behind the Conservatives. The NDP will probably pick up ~5 close races from the Liberals, but it's not going to be a massive shift.
April 28, 2025 at 3:09 PM
In contrast, with one or two exceptions, where the LPC and NDP are close, they are fighting for 2nd place behind the Conservatives. The NDP will probably pick up ~5 close races from the Liberals, but it's not going to be a massive shift.
Such a sweep would probably push the Liberals to a massive 200-seat majority. And if the CPC craters, Trump will probably claim he was talking about Carney.
April 28, 2025 at 3:04 PM
Such a sweep would probably push the Liberals to a massive 200-seat majority. And if the CPC craters, Trump will probably claim he was talking about Carney.
I am dubious about predicting individual ridings, but it looks like there are about 20 where either the CPC or LPC lead, but are within 5 points of each other. If the Liberals sweep these, they will perhaps have Trump’s intervention to thank (although it’s doubtful much changes at this stage).
April 28, 2025 at 3:02 PM
I am dubious about predicting individual ridings, but it looks like there are about 20 where either the CPC or LPC lead, but are within 5 points of each other. If the Liberals sweep these, they will perhaps have Trump’s intervention to thank (although it’s doubtful much changes at this stage).