Prof. Benjamin Forest
@benjaminforest.bsky.social
Associate Professor of Geography, McGill University; Centre for the Study of Democratic Citizenship; McGill Institute for the Study of Canada. Political representation, identity, and politics of memory. Also, dogs.
Opinions and bad puns are my own
Opinions and bad puns are my own
I am pleased to share a new co-authored article on the symbolic politics of the EU flag. It's open access, so please read and share freely.
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Aspirational Iconography: The European Union Flag as an Extraterritorial Political Symbol
How and why did the European Union (EU) flag, once a banal marker of European integration and institutions in its member states, become such a politically charged symbol outside of the EU? We demon...
www.tandfonline.com
October 29, 2025 at 11:54 PM
I am pleased to share a new co-authored article on the symbolic politics of the EU flag. It's open access, so please read and share freely.
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
I plan to post research-related material this week for APSA, but first, a reminder that they are coming for all of us soon.
www.nytimes.com/2025/09/10/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/09/10/u...
Texas Professor Fired After Accusations of Teaching ‘Gender Ideology’
www.nytimes.com
September 10, 2025 at 7:21 PM
I plan to post research-related material this week for APSA, but first, a reminder that they are coming for all of us soon.
www.nytimes.com/2025/09/10/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/09/10/u...
I got distracted thinking about turnout in US presidential elections. Here is a graph showing the total presidential votes from 1824-2024 as a percentage of eligible voters and as a percentage of total population.
June 17, 2025 at 7:41 PM
I got distracted thinking about turnout in US presidential elections. Here is a graph showing the total presidential votes from 1824-2024 as a percentage of eligible voters and as a percentage of total population.
June 14, 2025 at 2:30 PM
Reposted by Prof. Benjamin Forest
With this thread in mind it’s a good time to praise current IAS professor Alondra Nelson for doing right by this legacy: time.com/7285045/resi...
May 14, 2025 at 12:32 PM
With this thread in mind it’s a good time to praise current IAS professor Alondra Nelson for doing right by this legacy: time.com/7285045/resi...
Reposted by Prof. Benjamin Forest
Never. There, I said it.
May 6, 2025 at 6:26 PM
Never. There, I said it.
To be clear, Canadians writing about Canada think this is always true.
May 2, 2025 at 12:54 PM
To be clear, Canadians writing about Canada think this is always true.
The final results are in, per CBC, for vote share (and seats). LPC 43.7 (169). CPC 41.3 (144). Bloc: 6.3 (22). NDP 6.3 (7). Green 1.3 (1). Using these vote shares, the seats are high end of the forecast ranges for the CPC (126-148), Bloc (12-25) and Green (0-2).
April 30, 2025 at 4:07 PM
The final results are in, per CBC, for vote share (and seats). LPC 43.7 (169). CPC 41.3 (144). Bloc: 6.3 (22). NDP 6.3 (7). Green 1.3 (1). Using these vote shares, the seats are high end of the forecast ranges for the CPC (126-148), Bloc (12-25) and Green (0-2).
The votes are still being counted but it appears the LPC is headed for a minority government with 168 seats. Based on the preliminary popular vote, my model over-predicted their seat count, but the CPC (144) is within the predicted range (albeit on the very high end).
April 29, 2025 at 1:13 PM
The votes are still being counted but it appears the LPC is headed for a minority government with 168 seats. Based on the preliminary popular vote, my model over-predicted their seat count, but the CPC (144) is within the predicted range (albeit on the very high end).
CBC just called it for the Liberals.
April 29, 2025 at 2:14 AM
CBC just called it for the Liberals.
Reposted by Prof. Benjamin Forest
RE: Trump's statement on the Canadian election, endorsing Pierre Poilievre without actually naming him, saying PP will help Canada become a state.
April 28, 2025 at 1:27 PM
RE: Trump's statement on the Canadian election, endorsing Pierre Poilievre without actually naming him, saying PP will help Canada become a state.
Once the results are in (probably tomorrow), I’ll run the model with the actual vote share to see how the model did this time around. My guesstimate is the LPC with about 185 seats with the NPD ending up with around 7.
April 28, 2025 at 1:13 PM
Once the results are in (probably tomorrow), I’ll run the model with the actual vote share to see how the model did this time around. My guesstimate is the LPC with about 185 seats with the NPD ending up with around 7.
My forecasts based on the final CBC polling averages. The LPC are on track for a majority government with 190-191 seats with the CPC in opposition (132-133 seats). NDP (1-2), Bloc (17-18), and Greens (0-1) are far behind, but the NDP will probably do better at the expense of the LPC.
April 28, 2025 at 1:10 PM
My forecasts based on the final CBC polling averages. The LPC are on track for a majority government with 190-191 seats with the CPC in opposition (132-133 seats). NDP (1-2), Bloc (17-18), and Greens (0-1) are far behind, but the NDP will probably do better at the expense of the LPC.
Reposted by Prof. Benjamin Forest
Urbanistas out there will enjoy this book on 'Four lost cities' by @annaleen.bsky.social ...a fun read with lots of fascinating detail about Çatalhöyük (in present-day Turkey), Pompeii (in present-day Italy), Angkor (in present-day Cambodia), and Cahokia (in present-day USA)
April 26, 2025 at 7:09 PM
Urbanistas out there will enjoy this book on 'Four lost cities' by @annaleen.bsky.social ...a fun read with lots of fascinating detail about Çatalhöyük (in present-day Turkey), Pompeii (in present-day Italy), Angkor (in present-day Cambodia), and Cahokia (in present-day USA)
The model forecasts a 100% chance of a Liberal majority government, but a successful NDP defence of its stronghold ridings could conceivably push the LPC into minority territory. The hints of a slight national swing to the NDP would be less relevant than focused attention on key districts. 2/2
April 26, 2025 at 3:39 PM
The model forecasts a 100% chance of a Liberal majority government, but a successful NDP defence of its stronghold ridings could conceivably push the LPC into minority territory. The hints of a slight national swing to the NDP would be less relevant than focused attention on key districts. 2/2
Polls still don’t show any major national swings. The CBC average has the LPC (42.5%) leading the CPC (38.7%) by about 4 percentage points, and 8 of the 10 most recent polls has them leading by at least 3 points. Today’s average forecasts 190-191 seats for the LPC and 130-131 for the CPC. 1/2
April 26, 2025 at 3:39 PM
Polls still don’t show any major national swings. The CBC average has the LPC (42.5%) leading the CPC (38.7%) by about 4 percentage points, and 8 of the 10 most recent polls has them leading by at least 3 points. Today’s average forecasts 190-191 seats for the LPC and 130-131 for the CPC. 1/2
Reposted by Prof. Benjamin Forest
Although the absolute support for the LPC is lower in these two polls, it gives them the highest average seat count: 194.5, and a substantially worse result for the Conservatives (124 seats). These polls are also marginally better for the NDP (3.5 seats) and worse for the Bloc (18 seats). 2/2
April 22, 2025 at 4:38 PM
Although the absolute support for the LPC is lower in these two polls, it gives them the highest average seat count: 194.5, and a substantially worse result for the Conservatives (124 seats). These polls are also marginally better for the NDP (3.5 seats) and worse for the Bloc (18 seats). 2/2
No student has shown up to my office hours, so I ran one more set of simulations, with the Nanos Research / CTV-Globe and Mail. This poll – along with one from Liaison Strategies / NEPMCC – has the largest difference between the LPC and CPC (43% to 37%). 1/2 newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/po...
Poll Tracker
If an election were held today, who would win? The CBC News Poll Tracker is your guide to following the polls. Get the latest numbers and analysis on where the political parties stand from Éric Grenie...
newsinteractives.cbc.ca
April 22, 2025 at 4:36 PM
No student has shown up to my office hours, so I ran one more set of simulations, with the Nanos Research / CTV-Globe and Mail. This poll – along with one from Liaison Strategies / NEPMCC – has the largest difference between the LPC and CPC (43% to 37%). 1/2 newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/po...
The 40-40 tie from the Mainstreet poll still forecasts a Liberal victory, but with an average of only 181 seats and the CPC in opposition with 140-141 seats. Some simulations show a Liberal minority, but less than 1% of the time. As in 2021, the FPTP system helps the Liberals substantially. 4/4
April 22, 2025 at 4:24 PM
The 40-40 tie from the Mainstreet poll still forecasts a Liberal victory, but with an average of only 181 seats and the CPC in opposition with 140-141 seats. Some simulations show a Liberal minority, but less than 1% of the time. As in 2021, the FPTP system helps the Liberals substantially. 4/4
The Angus Reid results have the Liberals averaging 190 seats and the Conservatives 129, with no simulation producing a minority government. The forecast has the Bloc with a solid 21-22 seats share and the now-familiar dire results for the NDP ( 1 seat or less).3/4
April 22, 2025 at 4:24 PM
The Angus Reid results have the Liberals averaging 190 seats and the Conservatives 129, with no simulation producing a minority government. The forecast has the Bloc with a solid 21-22 seats share and the now-familiar dire results for the NDP ( 1 seat or less).3/4