Prof. Benjamin Forest
@benjaminforest.bsky.social
Associate Professor of Geography, McGill University; Centre for the Study of Democratic Citizenship; McGill Institute for the Study of Canada. Political representation, identity, and politics of memory. Also, dogs.
Opinions and bad puns are my own
Opinions and bad puns are my own
I got distracted thinking about turnout in US presidential elections. Here is a graph showing the total presidential votes from 1824-2024 as a percentage of eligible voters and as a percentage of total population.
June 17, 2025 at 7:41 PM
I got distracted thinking about turnout in US presidential elections. Here is a graph showing the total presidential votes from 1824-2024 as a percentage of eligible voters and as a percentage of total population.
June 14, 2025 at 2:30 PM
To be clear, Canadians writing about Canada think this is always true.
May 2, 2025 at 12:54 PM
To be clear, Canadians writing about Canada think this is always true.
The final results are in, per CBC, for vote share (and seats). LPC 43.7 (169). CPC 41.3 (144). Bloc: 6.3 (22). NDP 6.3 (7). Green 1.3 (1). Using these vote shares, the seats are high end of the forecast ranges for the CPC (126-148), Bloc (12-25) and Green (0-2).
April 30, 2025 at 4:07 PM
The final results are in, per CBC, for vote share (and seats). LPC 43.7 (169). CPC 41.3 (144). Bloc: 6.3 (22). NDP 6.3 (7). Green 1.3 (1). Using these vote shares, the seats are high end of the forecast ranges for the CPC (126-148), Bloc (12-25) and Green (0-2).
The votes are still being counted but it appears the LPC is headed for a minority government with 168 seats. Based on the preliminary popular vote, my model over-predicted their seat count, but the CPC (144) is within the predicted range (albeit on the very high end).
April 29, 2025 at 1:13 PM
The votes are still being counted but it appears the LPC is headed for a minority government with 168 seats. Based on the preliminary popular vote, my model over-predicted their seat count, but the CPC (144) is within the predicted range (albeit on the very high end).
CBC just called it for the Liberals.
April 29, 2025 at 2:14 AM
CBC just called it for the Liberals.
RE: Trump's statement on the Canadian election, endorsing Pierre Poilievre without actually naming him, saying PP will help Canada become a state.
April 28, 2025 at 1:27 PM
RE: Trump's statement on the Canadian election, endorsing Pierre Poilievre without actually naming him, saying PP will help Canada become a state.
My forecasts based on the final CBC polling averages. The LPC are on track for a majority government with 190-191 seats with the CPC in opposition (132-133 seats). NDP (1-2), Bloc (17-18), and Greens (0-1) are far behind, but the NDP will probably do better at the expense of the LPC.
April 28, 2025 at 1:10 PM
My forecasts based on the final CBC polling averages. The LPC are on track for a majority government with 190-191 seats with the CPC in opposition (132-133 seats). NDP (1-2), Bloc (17-18), and Greens (0-1) are far behind, but the NDP will probably do better at the expense of the LPC.
Polls still don’t show any major national swings. The CBC average has the LPC (42.5%) leading the CPC (38.7%) by about 4 percentage points, and 8 of the 10 most recent polls has them leading by at least 3 points. Today’s average forecasts 190-191 seats for the LPC and 130-131 for the CPC. 1/2
April 26, 2025 at 3:39 PM
Polls still don’t show any major national swings. The CBC average has the LPC (42.5%) leading the CPC (38.7%) by about 4 percentage points, and 8 of the 10 most recent polls has them leading by at least 3 points. Today’s average forecasts 190-191 seats for the LPC and 130-131 for the CPC. 1/2
Although the absolute support for the LPC is lower in these two polls, it gives them the highest average seat count: 194.5, and a substantially worse result for the Conservatives (124 seats). These polls are also marginally better for the NDP (3.5 seats) and worse for the Bloc (18 seats). 2/2
April 22, 2025 at 4:38 PM
Although the absolute support for the LPC is lower in these two polls, it gives them the highest average seat count: 194.5, and a substantially worse result for the Conservatives (124 seats). These polls are also marginally better for the NDP (3.5 seats) and worse for the Bloc (18 seats). 2/2
The 40-40 tie from the Mainstreet poll still forecasts a Liberal victory, but with an average of only 181 seats and the CPC in opposition with 140-141 seats. Some simulations show a Liberal minority, but less than 1% of the time. As in 2021, the FPTP system helps the Liberals substantially. 4/4
April 22, 2025 at 4:24 PM
The 40-40 tie from the Mainstreet poll still forecasts a Liberal victory, but with an average of only 181 seats and the CPC in opposition with 140-141 seats. Some simulations show a Liberal minority, but less than 1% of the time. As in 2021, the FPTP system helps the Liberals substantially. 4/4
The Angus Reid results have the Liberals averaging 190 seats and the Conservatives 129, with no simulation producing a minority government. The forecast has the Bloc with a solid 21-22 seats share and the now-familiar dire results for the NDP ( 1 seat or less).3/4
April 22, 2025 at 4:24 PM
The Angus Reid results have the Liberals averaging 190 seats and the Conservatives 129, with no simulation producing a minority government. The forecast has the Bloc with a solid 21-22 seats share and the now-familiar dire results for the NDP ( 1 seat or less).3/4
Advanced voting is in progress.
April 20, 2025 at 2:25 PM
Advanced voting is in progress.
The model continues to forecast a comfortable majority for the Liberals, averaging 198 seats, with a 20% chance of cracking the 200-seat ceiling, and no chance of falling below a majority. 2/3
April 19, 2025 at 8:44 PM
The model continues to forecast a comfortable majority for the Liberals, averaging 198 seats, with a 20% chance of cracking the 200-seat ceiling, and no chance of falling below a majority. 2/3
I ran the model using the 2021 boundaries (338 constituencies) with today’s CBC polling averages (10 April) to see what the likely outcome would be under the old system. The LPC averages 207 seats while the CPC averages 111. 3/6
April 10, 2025 at 2:11 PM
I ran the model using the 2021 boundaries (338 constituencies) with today’s CBC polling averages (10 April) to see what the likely outcome would be under the old system. The LPC averages 207 seats while the CPC averages 111. 3/6
There has been very little movement in the polling averages since 2 April, which is good news for the Liberals because they continue to hold a commanding lead in seats. The average count across the simulations is 201 seats, with CPC at 125.
April 8, 2025 at 12:38 AM
There has been very little movement in the polling averages since 2 April, which is good news for the Liberals because they continue to hold a commanding lead in seats. The average count across the simulations is 201 seats, with CPC at 125.
In contrast, the model shows a more typical majority for the LPC when using the Mainstreet numbers, with an average of 187 seats, a high of less than 200, and one simulation (out of 10,000) even showing them one seat below a majority. 4/4
April 5, 2025 at 3:49 PM
In contrast, the model shows a more typical majority for the LPC when using the Mainstreet numbers, with an average of 187 seats, a high of less than 200, and one simulation (out of 10,000) even showing them one seat below a majority. 4/4
Anyway. . . The Nanos poll show the LPC with a commanding seat lead. The average is 210, and there is a small chance (<1%) of more than 220 seats. Similarly, there is <1% chance of fewer than 200 seats, which would be an unprecedented majority for them.
April 5, 2025 at 3:24 PM
Anyway. . . The Nanos poll show the LPC with a commanding seat lead. The average is 210, and there is a small chance (<1%) of more than 220 seats. Similarly, there is <1% chance of fewer than 200 seats, which would be an unprecedented majority for them.
The LPC is up about 1.5% and the NDP down about 0.7% in CBC polling average compared to 31 March, but this is enough to move the forecast. The Liberals are now averaging 198 seats and the model shows a 15% chance of zero NDP seats.
April 2, 2025 at 12:58 PM
The LPC is up about 1.5% and the NDP down about 0.7% in CBC polling average compared to 31 March, but this is enough to move the forecast. The Liberals are now averaging 198 seats and the model shows a 15% chance of zero NDP seats.
A stunning new poll from Poisson d'Avril shows the election now as a two-party race. The Greens look to dominate the next government.
April 1, 2025 at 1:39 PM
A stunning new poll from Poisson d'Avril shows the election now as a two-party race. The Greens look to dominate the next government.
There are not a lot of changes from the 29 March results. The Liberals and NDP are up slightly, and the Bloc is down a bit in polls. The Liberals are maintaining their (forecasted) majority (average of 194 seats) and things are *slightly* less dire for the NDP (but still only averaging 2.5 seats).
March 31, 2025 at 2:27 PM
There are not a lot of changes from the 29 March results. The Liberals and NDP are up slightly, and the Bloc is down a bit in polls. The Liberals are maintaining their (forecasted) majority (average of 194 seats) and things are *slightly* less dire for the NDP (but still only averaging 2.5 seats).
This graph provides useful background for election projections. It shows the relationship between the national vote and seats won from 1945 to 2021. The bias usually works in favour of parties getting more than about 32% of the national vote. The 2021 bias favouring the Liberals was unusually large.
March 29, 2025 at 2:44 PM
This graph provides useful background for election projections. It shows the relationship between the national vote and seats won from 1945 to 2021. The bias usually works in favour of parties getting more than about 32% of the national vote. The 2021 bias favouring the Liberals was unusually large.
My forecast based on the CBC polling average for 29 March. The Liberals have extended their lead in the polls, which translates into a projected majority government in all simulations. The model has the LPC averaging 189 seats. Things look worse for the NDP, with zero seats in 5% of the simulations.
March 29, 2025 at 2:30 PM
My forecast based on the CBC polling average for 29 March. The Liberals have extended their lead in the polls, which translates into a projected majority government in all simulations. The model has the LPC averaging 189 seats. Things look worse for the NDP, with zero seats in 5% of the simulations.
My updated forecast using the 26 March CBC polling averages has the Liberal Party winning a majority in almost every simulation, and an average of 184 seats across the 10,000 simulations. There are some dire outcomes for the NDP, with some simulations resulting in zero seats.
March 26, 2025 at 10:41 PM
My updated forecast using the 26 March CBC polling averages has the Liberal Party winning a majority in almost every simulation, and an average of 184 seats across the 10,000 simulations. There are some dire outcomes for the NDP, with some simulations resulting in zero seats.
The current CBC polling average has both the Liberals and Conservatives at about 37%, higher than both of their 2021 results (32.6 and 33.7 respectively). Using those figures, my model predicts a Liberal win, with a majority government as the most likely outcome.
March 23, 2025 at 9:53 PM
The current CBC polling average has both the Liberals and Conservatives at about 37%, higher than both of their 2021 results (32.6 and 33.7 respectively). Using those figures, my model predicts a Liberal win, with a majority government as the most likely outcome.