Jordan Leick
@beacon.bsky.social
😁 Minneapolis booster
🌇 CLIC appointee, East Bank Neighborhoods board, OpenStreetMap editor
👢taller than necessary
🌇 CLIC appointee, East Bank Neighborhoods board, OpenStreetMap editor
👢taller than necessary
Ward 3 changed quite a bit, even in addition to new construction. Dinkytown moved to Ward 2. In any case, the results of many elections (council, park board, mayor, county attorney, US house) are fairly consistent, and far more relevant than 2017 results.
November 6, 2025 at 5:16 PM
Ward 3 changed quite a bit, even in addition to new construction. Dinkytown moved to Ward 2. In any case, the results of many elections (council, park board, mayor, county attorney, US house) are fairly consistent, and far more relevant than 2017 results.
Don’t forget about major redistricting after census though. Not valid to do Ward comparisons between 2017 and 2025
November 6, 2025 at 3:45 PM
Don’t forget about major redistricting after census though. Not valid to do Ward comparisons between 2017 and 2025
Ok but your previous post was 100% about candidates for this + next election — I think groups should aim to actually win elections! Pick candidates that are appropriate for the Ward.
The most first-choice votes Fateh got in any Ward 11 precinct was 24%. Whiting new hire to run to win there.
The most first-choice votes Fateh got in any Ward 11 precinct was 24%. Whiting new hire to run to win there.
November 6, 2025 at 3:44 PM
Ok but your previous post was 100% about candidates for this + next election — I think groups should aim to actually win elections! Pick candidates that are appropriate for the Ward.
The most first-choice votes Fateh got in any Ward 11 precinct was 24%. Whiting new hire to run to win there.
The most first-choice votes Fateh got in any Ward 11 precinct was 24%. Whiting new hire to run to win there.
Constituencies of those wards are far more conservative/moderate. You can’t really run a DSA/progressive organizer there and win
November 6, 2025 at 3:31 PM
Constituencies of those wards are far more conservative/moderate. You can’t really run a DSA/progressive organizer there and win
Most of the rest of Killian’s thread seems reasonable.
November 6, 2025 at 3:28 PM
Most of the rest of Killian’s thread seems reasonable.
But Mills also ran in 2023. He doesn’t really score any significant endorsements, even from groups who have strong reason to support a challenger to Rainville
November 6, 2025 at 3:16 PM
But Mills also ran in 2023. He doesn’t really score any significant endorsements, even from groups who have strong reason to support a challenger to Rainville
Maybe! There were only 9 wards where I felt it was reasonable to do this comparison, and 4/9 of those moderate council candidates underperformed Frey’s first-choice %
November 6, 2025 at 2:25 AM
Maybe! There were only 9 wards where I felt it was reasonable to do this comparison, and 4/9 of those moderate council candidates underperformed Frey’s first-choice %
Why mention Scott Graham at all if he lives blocks away?
November 5, 2025 at 11:11 PM
Why mention Scott Graham at all if he lives blocks away?
Oops, sorry no mostly my fault. I think you got 21 of 25 possible points
Mayor 0/1
Council 12/13 (Cashman)
Parks 8/9 (Musich)
BET 1/2 (Fine)
Mayor 0/1
Council 12/13 (Cashman)
Parks 8/9 (Musich)
BET 1/2 (Fine)
November 5, 2025 at 11:09 PM
Oops, sorry no mostly my fault. I think you got 21 of 25 possible points
Mayor 0/1
Council 12/13 (Cashman)
Parks 8/9 (Musich)
BET 1/2 (Fine)
Mayor 0/1
Council 12/13 (Cashman)
Parks 8/9 (Musich)
BET 1/2 (Fine)
If Rainville has a strong challenger like Cashman, then he could have lost. That +24 is mostly about the weakness of Mills as an opponent.
Haven’t looked, but possible that lots of voters simply left the council race blank
Haven’t looked, but possible that lots of voters simply left the council race blank
November 5, 2025 at 10:59 PM
If Rainville has a strong challenger like Cashman, then he could have lost. That +24 is mostly about the weakness of Mills as an opponent.
Haven’t looked, but possible that lots of voters simply left the council race blank
Haven’t looked, but possible that lots of voters simply left the council race blank
Only fact checking because you’re claiming the highest score so far, but I only see 19 correct, not 22?
November 5, 2025 at 10:55 PM
Only fact checking because you’re claiming the highest score so far, but I only see 19 correct, not 22?
19, so I likely won’t be Top 3. My turnout guess was 133k
November 5, 2025 at 10:22 PM
19, so I likely won’t be Top 3. My turnout guess was 133k
Are you truly surprised by this?
November 5, 2025 at 10:03 PM
Are you truly surprised by this?
This was at 7:14am. Nice to see Ted Tucker ahead of me!
November 4, 2025 at 1:33 PM
This was at 7:14am. Nice to see Ted Tucker ahead of me!
Legally, no, not yet. But VPNs!
November 4, 2025 at 2:11 AM
Legally, no, not yet. But VPNs!
And the market for it in Polymarket has 4x that amount of money wagered
November 4, 2025 at 2:03 AM
And the market for it in Polymarket has 4x that amount of money wagered
Might disqualify me, but I’m only sharing my #mplswins odds where I think the favorite has <90% odds:
Frey (75%)
Wonsley (85%)
Burnett (55%)
Cashman (51%)
Stevenson (75%)
Chughtai (75%)
Forney (80%)
Olsen (75%)
Wilson (55%)
Engelhart (60%)
Colby (60%)
Musich (60%)
Abene (85%)
Fine (55%)
Frey (75%)
Wonsley (85%)
Burnett (55%)
Cashman (51%)
Stevenson (75%)
Chughtai (75%)
Forney (80%)
Olsen (75%)
Wilson (55%)
Engelhart (60%)
Colby (60%)
Musich (60%)
Abene (85%)
Fine (55%)
November 4, 2025 at 1:59 AM
Might disqualify me, but I’m only sharing my #mplswins odds where I think the favorite has <90% odds:
Frey (75%)
Wonsley (85%)
Burnett (55%)
Cashman (51%)
Stevenson (75%)
Chughtai (75%)
Forney (80%)
Olsen (75%)
Wilson (55%)
Engelhart (60%)
Colby (60%)
Musich (60%)
Abene (85%)
Fine (55%)
Frey (75%)
Wonsley (85%)
Burnett (55%)
Cashman (51%)
Stevenson (75%)
Chughtai (75%)
Forney (80%)
Olsen (75%)
Wilson (55%)
Engelhart (60%)
Colby (60%)
Musich (60%)
Abene (85%)
Fine (55%)
I think it’s just a fine unless they’re selling more than 2oz.
Are you arguing that MPD should invest more resources in cracking down on the sale of weed?
There are other things MPD is doing about gun violence in that area.. weed sale fines likely aren’t the most effective path to that.
Are you arguing that MPD should invest more resources in cracking down on the sale of weed?
There are other things MPD is doing about gun violence in that area.. weed sale fines likely aren’t the most effective path to that.
October 26, 2025 at 2:27 PM
I think it’s just a fine unless they’re selling more than 2oz.
Are you arguing that MPD should invest more resources in cracking down on the sale of weed?
There are other things MPD is doing about gun violence in that area.. weed sale fines likely aren’t the most effective path to that.
Are you arguing that MPD should invest more resources in cracking down on the sale of weed?
There are other things MPD is doing about gun violence in that area.. weed sale fines likely aren’t the most effective path to that.
Skedaddled right after we finished, maybe 3:45.
October 26, 2025 at 11:03 AM
Skedaddled right after we finished, maybe 3:45.