I would just keep holding the whole thing up then rather than drive everyone up the wall, grumble

Hi! Did you consider, at the same time, asking what their actual voting intention is? I ask because you do appear to recognise it's now less than 6 months until the election, and for the UK Parliament you have a weekly time series, so, surely, you might think some actual VI was useful? Right?

Exit Polls are really, really complex, far beyond a normal poll, so short answer is no! It'd be good if the national broadcaster considered devolved elections worth the bother, but well beyond my capacity.

Same as previous crowdfunders, Liberapay donations for the duration will be added to the total manually, so if you've already got an established regular BBS donation due up soon, that goes straight into this pot too!

To be clear I, definitionally, do not consider preference flows to be tactical. It's not tactical to say "I like Conservatives the most and Labour more than the SNP" and rank accordingly the way it is to say "I like Conservatives the most but they won't win so I'm backing Labour to stop the SNP"!

National polling gives a better picture of this than second preferences in by-elections (particularly one arising from a Labour councillor being jailed for grooming offences) ballotbox.scot/sp26-reform-...

Afraid you're a bit confused! The STV system for local elections was introduced for 2007 onwards, as a condition of the Lib Dems entering coalition with Labour in 2003. The mixed AMS Scottish Parliament system was effectively a compromise with Lib Dems too: Labour wanted pure First Past the Post.

Buckhaven, Methil and Wemyss Villages (Fife) by-election, most popular second preference by party:

SNP -> Alba
Reform UK -> SNP
Labour -> SNP
Lib Dem -> SNP
Alba -> SNP
Reform UK -> Conservative
Sovereignty -> SNP

Buckhaven, Methil and Wemyss Villages (Fife) by-election results by polling district, strongest area by party:

SNP, Sovereignty: Central Methil
Reform: East Wemyss
Labour: Northern Buckhaven
Lib Dem, Alba, Conservative: West Wemyss/Coaltown of Wemyss

Buckhaven, Methil and Wemyss Villages (Fife) by-election transfers, votes at final stage:

SNP: 1900 (50.8%)
Reform UK: 1220 (32.6%)
Didn't Transfer: 623 (16.6%)

SNP elected stage 6.

Run as SNP vs Lab (vs 2022):
SNP: 1865 (49.8%, +1.1)
Lab: 1001 (26.7%, -16.5)
Didn't Transfer: 877 (23.4%, -15.5)

Stirling East (Stirling) by-election, most popular second preference by party:

SNP <-> Green
Labour -> SNP
Reform <-> Conservative
Lib Dem -> Labour

(Much delayed but for completeness sake!)