Ballot Box Scotland
@ballotbox.scot
Scottish elections and polling data. Not my polls. OG 'Britain Elects but Scottish'. PR fan account. Trans rights are human rights.
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Today marks just six months to go until the 2026 Scottish Parliament Election! As is now usual, I'll be looking to commission a pre-election poll. If you can, please chip in to the crowdfunder here - all donations gratefully received, and even if you can't donate, please share!
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Thanks to everyone who has chipped in so far - already one-eigthth of the way to the goal!
Today marks just six months to go until the 2026 Scottish Parliament Election! As is now usual, I'll be looking to commission a pre-election poll. If you can, please chip in to the crowdfunder here - all donations gratefully received, and even if you can't donate, please share!
gofund.me/cf862de1a
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Donate to Ballot Box Scotland SP26 Fundraiser, organized by Allan Faulds
This funding will support Ballot Box Scotland's reporting ahead of the 2026 Scottish … Allan Faulds needs your support for Ballot Box Scotland SP26 Fundraiser
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November 12, 2025 at 12:31 PM
Thanks to everyone who has chipped in so far - already one-eigthth of the way to the goal!
By-Election Preview: Whitburn and Blackburn (West Lothian) 11th of December 2025
A messy one to watch: likely tight Labour vs SNP contest, expect a strong Reform share, will Conservatives slip below Greens/Lib Dems, is an Independent set for a 2027 win?
A messy one to watch: likely tight Labour vs SNP contest, expect a strong Reform share, will Conservatives slip below Greens/Lib Dems, is an Independent set for a 2027 win?
By-Election Preview: Whitburn and Blackburn (West Lothian) 11th of December 2025
A messy by-election with lots to watch: tight Labour vs SNP contest, expect a strong Reform share, will Conservatives slip below Greens/Lib Dems, is an Independent set for a 2027 win?
ballotbox.scot
November 10, 2025 at 5:30 PM
By-Election Preview: Whitburn and Blackburn (West Lothian) 11th of December 2025
A messy one to watch: likely tight Labour vs SNP contest, expect a strong Reform share, will Conservatives slip below Greens/Lib Dems, is an Independent set for a 2027 win?
A messy one to watch: likely tight Labour vs SNP contest, expect a strong Reform share, will Conservatives slip below Greens/Lib Dems, is an Independent set for a 2027 win?
By-Election Preview: Fort William and Ardnamurchan (Highland) 11th of December 2025
The Lib Dems won comfortably in 2022 and then embarrassingly easily in a by-election last year, so they surely have this one locked in.
Call: Lib Dem Win.
The Lib Dems won comfortably in 2022 and then embarrassingly easily in a by-election last year, so they surely have this one locked in.
Call: Lib Dem Win.
By-Election Preview: Fort William and Ardnamurchan (Highland) 11th of December 2025
The Lib Dems won comfortably in 2022 and then embarrassingly easily in a by-election last year, so they surely have this one locked in.
ballotbox.scot
November 9, 2025 at 5:30 PM
By-Election Preview: Fort William and Ardnamurchan (Highland) 11th of December 2025
The Lib Dems won comfortably in 2022 and then embarrassingly easily in a by-election last year, so they surely have this one locked in.
Call: Lib Dem Win.
The Lib Dems won comfortably in 2022 and then embarrassingly easily in a by-election last year, so they surely have this one locked in.
Call: Lib Dem Win.
Just the six major parties for Fort William and Ardnamurchan. Given Independents usually spice Highland by-elections up, this one is a much simpler call: I'll be astonished if the Lib Dems don't win it easy peasy, though they may not be quite as strong as last year which was partly due to candidate.
November 8, 2025 at 11:14 PM
Just the six major parties for Fort William and Ardnamurchan. Given Independents usually spice Highland by-elections up, this one is a much simpler call: I'll be astonished if the Lib Dems don't win it easy peasy, though they may not be quite as strong as last year which was partly due to candidate.
Whitburn and Blackburn's repeat ballot is the six current major parties in Scotland, plus a pair of Independents. Still think this one's a tossup but Reform are starting from an already very good place: if they really build on that, it'll massively damage Labour.
November 8, 2025 at 11:12 PM
Whitburn and Blackburn's repeat ballot is the six current major parties in Scotland, plus a pair of Independents. Still think this one's a tossup but Reform are starting from an already very good place: if they really build on that, it'll massively damage Labour.
Reposted by Ballot Box Scotland
Today marks just six months to go until the 2026 Scottish Parliament Election! As is now usual, I'll be looking to commission a pre-election poll. If you can, please chip in to the crowdfunder here - all donations gratefully received, and even if you can't donate, please share!
gofund.me/cf862de1a
gofund.me/cf862de1a
Donate to Ballot Box Scotland SP26 Fundraiser, organized by Allan Faulds
This funding will support Ballot Box Scotland's reporting ahead of the 2026 Scottish … Allan Faulds needs your support for Ballot Box Scotland SP26 Fundraiser
gofund.me
November 7, 2025 at 7:00 PM
Today marks just six months to go until the 2026 Scottish Parliament Election! As is now usual, I'll be looking to commission a pre-election poll. If you can, please chip in to the crowdfunder here - all donations gratefully received, and even if you can't donate, please share!
gofund.me/cf862de1a
gofund.me/cf862de1a
Today marks just six months to go until the 2026 Scottish Parliament Election! As is now usual, I'll be looking to commission a pre-election poll. If you can, please chip in to the crowdfunder here - all donations gratefully received, and even if you can't donate, please share!
gofund.me/cf862de1a
gofund.me/cf862de1a
Donate to Ballot Box Scotland SP26 Fundraiser, organized by Allan Faulds
This funding will support Ballot Box Scotland's reporting ahead of the 2026 Scottish … Allan Faulds needs your support for Ballot Box Scotland SP26 Fundraiser
gofund.me
November 7, 2025 at 7:00 PM
Today marks just six months to go until the 2026 Scottish Parliament Election! As is now usual, I'll be looking to commission a pre-election poll. If you can, please chip in to the crowdfunder here - all donations gratefully received, and even if you can't donate, please share!
gofund.me/cf862de1a
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By-Election Result analysis: Buckhaven, Methil and Wemyss Villages
A big SNP victory and complete Labour collapse, placing behind Reform UK on their best-yet Scottish share, followed on from the conviction of a Labour councillor
A big SNP victory and complete Labour collapse, placing behind Reform UK on their best-yet Scottish share, followed on from the conviction of a Labour councillor
By-Election Result: Buckhaven, Methil and Wemyss Villages
Background Following hot on the heels of a Stirling by-election last week, we went a little bit further along in the same Holyrood region for Fife's Buckhaven, Methil and Wemyss Villages by-election. Unfortunately this was the third vote this term to arise from a Labour councillor being convicted on sex offences in relation to minors, in this case David Graham. He'd been a councillor since 2012, and remained formally Labour affiliated until he was convicted.
ballotbox.scot
November 7, 2025 at 5:30 PM
By-Election Result analysis: Buckhaven, Methil and Wemyss Villages
A big SNP victory and complete Labour collapse, placing behind Reform UK on their best-yet Scottish share, followed on from the conviction of a Labour councillor
A big SNP victory and complete Labour collapse, placing behind Reform UK on their best-yet Scottish share, followed on from the conviction of a Labour councillor
It is a very good thing Tom Harris is no longer an MP. What a foul attitude to take to young people taking an interest in politics and the House of Commons making space to accommodate them, as any serious democracy should. "This lot"? A sublime encapsulation of the bitter ageism blighting politics.
The hatred the youth parliament gets is just so out of proportion. Can these people hear themselves. It’s creepy.
November 7, 2025 at 1:42 PM
It is a very good thing Tom Harris is no longer an MP. What a foul attitude to take to young people taking an interest in politics and the House of Commons making space to accommodate them, as any serious democracy should. "This lot"? A sublime encapsulation of the bitter ageism blighting politics.
Specific local circumstances counting against Labour here, but this is best Reform share yet in Scotland; beats 26.3% in West Dunbartonshire's Clydebank Waterfront in May, and 25.9% in Aberdeenshire's Fraserburgh and District one year ago today. (Yes, that's 3 attempts at getting OG post right!)
Buckhaven, Methil and Wemyss Villages (Fife) by-election, 1st prefs:
SNP: 1594 (42.6%, -4.9)
RUK: 1080 (28.9%, new)
Lab: 778 (20.8%, -19.5)
LD: 99 (2.6%, +0.4)
Alba: 83 (2.2%, +0.9)
Con: 64 (1.7%, -4.8)
Sovereignty: 45 (1.2%, new)
(Greens 2.2% in 2022)
SNP elected stage TBC (3rd time lucky!)
SNP: 1594 (42.6%, -4.9)
RUK: 1080 (28.9%, new)
Lab: 778 (20.8%, -19.5)
LD: 99 (2.6%, +0.4)
Alba: 83 (2.2%, +0.9)
Con: 64 (1.7%, -4.8)
Sovereignty: 45 (1.2%, new)
(Greens 2.2% in 2022)
SNP elected stage TBC (3rd time lucky!)
November 7, 2025 at 12:30 AM
Specific local circumstances counting against Labour here, but this is best Reform share yet in Scotland; beats 26.3% in West Dunbartonshire's Clydebank Waterfront in May, and 25.9% in Aberdeenshire's Fraserburgh and District one year ago today. (Yes, that's 3 attempts at getting OG post right!)
Buckhaven, Methil and Wemyss Villages (Fife) by-election, 1st prefs:
SNP: 1594 (42.6%, -4.9)
RUK: 1080 (28.9%, new)
Lab: 778 (20.8%, -19.5)
LD: 99 (2.6%, +0.4)
Alba: 83 (2.2%, +0.9)
Con: 64 (1.7%, -4.8)
Sovereignty: 45 (1.2%, new)
(Greens 2.2% in 2022)
SNP elected stage TBC (3rd time lucky!)
SNP: 1594 (42.6%, -4.9)
RUK: 1080 (28.9%, new)
Lab: 778 (20.8%, -19.5)
LD: 99 (2.6%, +0.4)
Alba: 83 (2.2%, +0.9)
Con: 64 (1.7%, -4.8)
Sovereignty: 45 (1.2%, new)
(Greens 2.2% in 2022)
SNP elected stage TBC (3rd time lucky!)
November 7, 2025 at 12:29 AM
Buckhaven, Methil and Wemyss Villages (Fife) by-election, 1st prefs:
SNP: 1594 (42.6%, -4.9)
RUK: 1080 (28.9%, new)
Lab: 778 (20.8%, -19.5)
LD: 99 (2.6%, +0.4)
Alba: 83 (2.2%, +0.9)
Con: 64 (1.7%, -4.8)
Sovereignty: 45 (1.2%, new)
(Greens 2.2% in 2022)
SNP elected stage TBC (3rd time lucky!)
SNP: 1594 (42.6%, -4.9)
RUK: 1080 (28.9%, new)
Lab: 778 (20.8%, -19.5)
LD: 99 (2.6%, +0.4)
Alba: 83 (2.2%, +0.9)
Con: 64 (1.7%, -4.8)
Sovereignty: 45 (1.2%, new)
(Greens 2.2% in 2022)
SNP elected stage TBC (3rd time lucky!)
Polling day for Fife's Buckhaven, Methil and Wemyss Villages by-election. Another one that comes in unsavoury circumstances following a sitting councillor's conviction, which could affect Labour's prospects. Overall though, a tossup between them and the SNP.
By-Election Preview: Buckhaven, Methil and Wemyss Villages (Fife) 6th of November 2025
Another by-election in criminally grim conditions, Labour’s chances of beating the SNP may hinge on just how much transfer-unwilling Reform voters eat into their share.
ballotbox.scot
November 6, 2025 at 8:30 AM
Polling day for Fife's Buckhaven, Methil and Wemyss Villages by-election. Another one that comes in unsavoury circumstances following a sitting councillor's conviction, which could affect Labour's prospects. Overall though, a tossup between them and the SNP.
As an election nerd, I would like to congratulate the people of New York City for boiling the piss of the all the worst people in their country.
November 5, 2025 at 8:11 AM
As an election nerd, I would like to congratulate the people of New York City for boiling the piss of the all the worst people in their country.
Glenrothes West and Kinglassie is indeed first scheduled by-election of 2026, on the 22nd of January. SNP had a near-majority of 1st prefs, but basically all available transfers were from Pro-Union side, so their final margin over Labour was 8%. Labour haven't always flipped such margins lately.
November 4, 2025 at 8:30 PM
Glenrothes West and Kinglassie is indeed first scheduled by-election of 2026, on the 22nd of January. SNP had a near-majority of 1st prefs, but basically all available transfers were from Pro-Union side, so their final margin over Labour was 8%. Labour haven't always flipped such margins lately.
By-Election Result analysis: Stirling East (2025)
The SNP score an easy win in a ward they'd already beaten Labour in last year, giving them every seat in the ward and almost certainly control of the council.
The SNP score an easy win in a ward they'd already beaten Labour in last year, giving them every seat in the ward and almost certainly control of the council.
By-Election Result: Stirling East (2025)
The SNP score an easy win in a ward they'd already beaten Labour in last year, giving them every seat in the ward and almost certainly control of the council.
ballotbox.scot
November 3, 2025 at 5:30 PM
By-Election Result analysis: Stirling East (2025)
The SNP score an easy win in a ward they'd already beaten Labour in last year, giving them every seat in the ward and almost certainly control of the council.
The SNP score an easy win in a ward they'd already beaten Labour in last year, giving them every seat in the ward and almost certainly control of the council.
If we do vs 2022:
SNP: -2.3
Lab: +2.2
RUK: New
Con: -16.7
Grn: +1.6
LD: +1.2
(-9.3% in non-returns)
Also, as I noted in preview, this shifts balance of council, where Labour had been pretending to be in sole control with just 4 councillors. No guarantee, but numbers there to change admin now.
SNP: -2.3
Lab: +2.2
RUK: New
Con: -16.7
Grn: +1.6
LD: +1.2
(-9.3% in non-returns)
Also, as I noted in preview, this shifts balance of council, where Labour had been pretending to be in sole control with just 4 councillors. No guarantee, but numbers there to change admin now.
October 30, 2025 at 11:31 PM
If we do vs 2022:
SNP: -2.3
Lab: +2.2
RUK: New
Con: -16.7
Grn: +1.6
LD: +1.2
(-9.3% in non-returns)
Also, as I noted in preview, this shifts balance of council, where Labour had been pretending to be in sole control with just 4 councillors. No guarantee, but numbers there to change admin now.
SNP: -2.3
Lab: +2.2
RUK: New
Con: -16.7
Grn: +1.6
LD: +1.2
(-9.3% in non-returns)
Also, as I noted in preview, this shifts balance of council, where Labour had been pretending to be in sole control with just 4 councillors. No guarantee, but numbers there to change admin now.
Stirling East (Stirling) by-election, first preferences (vs Dec 24 by-election):
SNP: 808 (36.4%, +1.8)
Labour: 530 (23.9%, -1.7)
Reform UK: 517 (23.3%, +9.2)
Conservative: 147 (6.6%, -5.6)
Green: 141 (6.3%, +1.3)
Lib Dem: 79 (3.6%, +0.6)
(An Independent got 5.6% in December)
SNP elected stage 6.
SNP: 808 (36.4%, +1.8)
Labour: 530 (23.9%, -1.7)
Reform UK: 517 (23.3%, +9.2)
Conservative: 147 (6.6%, -5.6)
Green: 141 (6.3%, +1.3)
Lib Dem: 79 (3.6%, +0.6)
(An Independent got 5.6% in December)
SNP elected stage 6.
October 30, 2025 at 11:19 PM
Stirling East (Stirling) by-election, first preferences (vs Dec 24 by-election):
SNP: 808 (36.4%, +1.8)
Labour: 530 (23.9%, -1.7)
Reform UK: 517 (23.3%, +9.2)
Conservative: 147 (6.6%, -5.6)
Green: 141 (6.3%, +1.3)
Lib Dem: 79 (3.6%, +0.6)
(An Independent got 5.6% in December)
SNP elected stage 6.
SNP: 808 (36.4%, +1.8)
Labour: 530 (23.9%, -1.7)
Reform UK: 517 (23.3%, +9.2)
Conservative: 147 (6.6%, -5.6)
Green: 141 (6.3%, +1.3)
Lib Dem: 79 (3.6%, +0.6)
(An Independent got 5.6% in December)
SNP elected stage 6.
By-election today for the Stirling East ward. Given the SNP won a by-election here in December, and Labour are in a much worse position, I'm inclined towards the SNP being likely winners, giving them every seat in the ward if so. Would sort of defeat the point of PR!
By-Election Preview: Stirling East (Stirling) 30th of October 2025
As Labour are floundering and the SNP won a by-election here last year, the SNP seem likely favourites. A win would give them every councillor in the ward, and potentially flip the administration; …
ballotbox.scot
October 30, 2025 at 8:30 AM
By-election today for the Stirling East ward. Given the SNP won a by-election here in December, and Labour are in a much worse position, I'm inclined towards the SNP being likely winners, giving them every seat in the ward if so. Would sort of defeat the point of PR!
U wot m8
Massive change for next year's Holyrood election: there'll be no overnight count. Votes to be counted on the Friday instead.
October 29, 2025 at 10:58 AM
U wot m8
Poll Analysis: Survation 22nd of September - 14th of October 2025
Holyrood seats projection:
SNP ~ 62
Reform UK ~ 21
Labour ~ 17
Conservative ~ 10
Green ~ 10
Lib Dem ~ 9
Holyrood seats projection:
SNP ~ 62
Reform UK ~ 21
Labour ~ 17
Conservative ~ 10
Green ~ 10
Lib Dem ~ 9
Poll Analysis: Survation 22nd of September – 14th of October 2025
Reform's best ever poll in vote terms doesn't quite get there in seats as a splintered vote continues to allow the SNP to exert intense pressure on proportionality.
ballotbox.scot
October 28, 2025 at 5:30 PM
Poll Analysis: Survation 22nd of September - 14th of October 2025
Holyrood seats projection:
SNP ~ 62
Reform UK ~ 21
Labour ~ 17
Conservative ~ 10
Green ~ 10
Lib Dem ~ 9
Holyrood seats projection:
SNP ~ 62
Reform UK ~ 21
Labour ~ 17
Conservative ~ 10
Green ~ 10
Lib Dem ~ 9
Downside to coming up with new inclusions for coverage is then forgetting to, y'know, include them. I'm supposed to be highlighting how much the SNP are warping proportionality! AMS ideal (vs projection):
SNP ~ 42 (-20)
RUK ~ 27 (+6)
Lab ~ 22 (+5)
Con ~ 15 (+5)
LD ~ 12 (+3)
Grn ~ 11 (+1)
SNP ~ 42 (-20)
RUK ~ 27 (+6)
Lab ~ 22 (+5)
Con ~ 15 (+5)
LD ~ 12 (+3)
Grn ~ 11 (+1)
Projecting Survation 22 Sep - 14 Oct into seats (changes vs last poll / vs 2021 on new boundaries):
SNP ~ 62 (-1 / -1)
Reform UK ~ 21 (+5 / +21)
Lab ~ 17 (-2 / -4)
Con ~ 10 (-2 / -21)
Green ~ 10 (+4 / nc)
Lib Dem ~ 9 (-4 / +5)
(Projection caveats: ballotbox.scot/projections)
SNP ~ 62 (-1 / -1)
Reform UK ~ 21 (+5 / +21)
Lab ~ 17 (-2 / -4)
Con ~ 10 (-2 / -21)
Green ~ 10 (+4 / nc)
Lib Dem ~ 9 (-4 / +5)
(Projection caveats: ballotbox.scot/projections)
October 26, 2025 at 3:46 PM
Downside to coming up with new inclusions for coverage is then forgetting to, y'know, include them. I'm supposed to be highlighting how much the SNP are warping proportionality! AMS ideal (vs projection):
SNP ~ 42 (-20)
RUK ~ 27 (+6)
Lab ~ 22 (+5)
Con ~ 15 (+5)
LD ~ 12 (+3)
Grn ~ 11 (+1)
SNP ~ 42 (-20)
RUK ~ 27 (+6)
Lab ~ 22 (+5)
Con ~ 15 (+5)
LD ~ 12 (+3)
Grn ~ 11 (+1)
New Scottish Parliament poll, Survation 22 Sep - 14 Oct (changes vs 4 - 16 Sep):
List:
SNP ~ 29% (-2)
RUK ~ 20% (+4)
Lab ~ 17% (-1)
Con ~ 12% (-1)
Grn ~ 10% (+2)
LD ~ 10% (-1)
Alba ~ 2% (nc)
Constituency:
SNP ~ 34% (-3)
RUK ~ 22% (+4)
Lab ~ 18% (-2)
Con ~ 10% (-1)
LD ~ 8% (+1)
Grn ~ 7% (+2)
List:
SNP ~ 29% (-2)
RUK ~ 20% (+4)
Lab ~ 17% (-1)
Con ~ 12% (-1)
Grn ~ 10% (+2)
LD ~ 10% (-1)
Alba ~ 2% (nc)
Constituency:
SNP ~ 34% (-3)
RUK ~ 22% (+4)
Lab ~ 18% (-2)
Con ~ 10% (-1)
LD ~ 8% (+1)
Grn ~ 7% (+2)
October 26, 2025 at 8:55 AM
New Scottish Parliament poll, Survation 22 Sep - 14 Oct (changes vs 4 - 16 Sep):
List:
SNP ~ 29% (-2)
RUK ~ 20% (+4)
Lab ~ 17% (-1)
Con ~ 12% (-1)
Grn ~ 10% (+2)
LD ~ 10% (-1)
Alba ~ 2% (nc)
Constituency:
SNP ~ 34% (-3)
RUK ~ 22% (+4)
Lab ~ 18% (-2)
Con ~ 10% (-1)
LD ~ 8% (+1)
Grn ~ 7% (+2)
List:
SNP ~ 29% (-2)
RUK ~ 20% (+4)
Lab ~ 17% (-1)
Con ~ 12% (-1)
Grn ~ 10% (+2)
LD ~ 10% (-1)
Alba ~ 2% (nc)
Constituency:
SNP ~ 34% (-3)
RUK ~ 22% (+4)
Lab ~ 18% (-2)
Con ~ 10% (-1)
LD ~ 8% (+1)
Grn ~ 7% (+2)
The 11th of December is the day for repeats of November 2024 by-elections, as that's when we've got Fort William and Ardnamurchan. Lib Dem win was huge last year but driven, in part, by the candidate. Nonetheless, I'd assume they're still pretty solid favourites barring a popular Independent.
October 25, 2025 at 12:14 PM
The 11th of December is the day for repeats of November 2024 by-elections, as that's when we've got Fort William and Ardnamurchan. Lib Dem win was huge last year but driven, in part, by the candidate. Nonetheless, I'd assume they're still pretty solid favourites barring a popular Independent.
Repeat by-election for Whitburn and Blackburn set for the 11th of December. Labour won last year's by about 5% over the SNP after transfers, which means that given their much poorer position now (polling about 7% lower) it's probably a tossup between the two. Also expect even better Reform result.
October 25, 2025 at 12:10 PM
Repeat by-election for Whitburn and Blackburn set for the 11th of December. Labour won last year's by about 5% over the SNP after transfers, which means that given their much poorer position now (polling about 7% lower) it's probably a tossup between the two. Also expect even better Reform result.
No elections in Scotland this week but this is very important content from Ireland in the race for the Áras.
The home of the O'Donovan family is being used as a polling station in Coolmoyne, Co Tipperary. Around 250 people are eligible to vote at the house and after they cast their ballot, they will be treated to a cup of tea, a slice of apple or rhubarb tart, or a scone | More: rte.ie/b/1540324
October 24, 2025 at 11:35 AM
No elections in Scotland this week but this is very important content from Ireland in the race for the Áras.