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Ballot Box Scotland
@ballotbox.scot
8.6K followers 3 following 1.7K posts
Scottish elections and polling data. Not my polls. OG 'Britain Elects but Scottish'. PR fan account. Trans rights are human rights.

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ballotbox.scot
Just the six major parties for Fort William and Ardnamurchan. Given Independents usually spice Highland by-elections up, this one is a much simpler call: I'll be astonished if the Lib Dems don't win it easy peasy, though they may not be quite as strong as last year which was partly due to candidate.
Infographic with by-election details. Candidates are Green Ollie Crookwood, Reform UK Allan MacDonald, SNP Norrie MacLean, Conservative Julia Peill, Labour Michael Perera, Lib Dem Matthew Prosser Vacating is SNP, 2024 by-election winner is Lib Dem, runner-up SNP, margin of 37.4%. Prediction is Lib Dem win.
November 8, 2025 at 11:14 PM
ballotbox.scot
Whitburn and Blackburn's repeat ballot is the six current major parties in Scotland, plus a pair of Independents. Still think this one's a tossup but Reform are starting from an already very good place: if they really build on that, it'll massively damage Labour.
Infographic with by-election details. Candidates are Lib Dem Douglas Butler, SNP Callum Cox, Independent Thomas Lynch, Labour Samuel McCulloch, Reform UK David McLennan, Independent Eddie Millar, Conservative Reece Sinnott, Green Robbie Walker. Vacating is Labour, 2024 by-election winner is Labour, runner-up SNP, margin of 5.3%. Prediction is Labour-SNP Tossup.
November 8, 2025 at 11:12 PM
ballotbox.scot
Buckhaven, Methil and Wemyss Villages (Fife) by-election, most popular second preference by party:

SNP -> Alba
Reform UK -> SNP
Labour -> SNP
Lib Dem -> SNP
Alba -> SNP
Reform UK -> Conservative
Sovereignty -> SNP
Chart showing second preferences in the by-election. Most popular second preference per party, in percentage terms: SNP to Alba 21.8 Reform to SNP 13.6 Labour to SNP 21.5 Lib Dem to SNP 21.2 Alba to SNP 41.0 Conservative to Reform 20.3 Sovereignty to SNP 22.2 Note that a plurality of voters for SNP at 45.9, Reform UK at 48.7, Labour at 51.8, Lib Dem at 31.3, Conservative at 46.9 and Sovereignty at 33.3 opted not to mark a second preference at all.
November 7, 2025 at 8:40 AM
ballotbox.scot
Buckhaven, Methil and Wemyss Villages (Fife) by-election results by polling district, strongest area by party:

SNP, Sovereignty: Central Methil
Reform: East Wemyss
Labour: Northern Buckhaven
Lib Dem, Alba, Conservative: West Wemyss/Coaltown of Wemyss
Chart showing first preferences by polling district. In percentage terms, best district for each party was SNP 46.2, Reform UK 31.8, Labour 26.7, Lib Dem 5.3, Alba 7.0,Conservative 4.1, Sovereignty 2.3 Map of the ward with polling districts coloured by lead party at the by-election. SNP led in every district including Buckhaven, Methil, East Wemyss, West Wemyss and Coaltown of Wemyss.
November 7, 2025 at 8:38 AM
ballotbox.scot
Buckhaven, Methil and Wemyss Villages (Fife) by-election transfers, votes at final stage:

SNP: 1900 (50.8%)
Reform UK: 1220 (32.6%)
Didn't Transfer: 623 (16.6%)

SNP elected stage 6.

Run as SNP vs Lab (vs 2022):
SNP: 1865 (49.8%, +1.1)
Lab: 1001 (26.7%, -16.5)
Didn't Transfer: 877 (23.4%, -15.5)
November 7, 2025 at 8:24 AM
ballotbox.scot
Buckhaven, Methil and Wemyss Villages (Fife) by-election, 1st prefs:

SNP: 1594 (42.6%, -4.9)
RUK: 1080 (28.9%, new)
Lab: 778 (20.8%, -19.5)
LD: 99 (2.6%, +0.4)
Alba: 83 (2.2%, +0.9)
Con: 64 (1.7%, -4.8)
Sovereignty: 45 (1.2%, new)
(Greens 2.2% in 2022)

SNP elected stage TBC (3rd time lucky!)
November 7, 2025 at 12:29 AM
ballotbox.scot
Glenrothes West and Kinglassie is indeed first scheduled by-election of 2026, on the 22nd of January. SNP had a near-majority of 1st prefs, but basically all available transfers were from Pro-Union side, so their final margin over Labour was 8%. Labour haven't always flipped such margins lately.
Chart of first preferences in 2022. In percentage terms, SNP 49.5, Labour 32.5, Conservative 11.6, Lib Dem 3.8, Independent 2.6 Chart of transfers in the ward in 2022, re-calculated for a single winner. In percentage terms at final head to head stage, SNP 50.4, Labour 42.5, Didn't Transfer 7.1 Map of the ward with polling districts coloured by lead party in 2022. The SNP led in every district covering Glenrothes West, including Macedonia, Rimbleton, Whitehill and Finglassie. Labour led in district covering Kinglassie.
November 4, 2025 at 8:30 PM
ballotbox.scot
Stirling East (Stirling) by-election, most popular second preference by party:

SNP <-> Green
Labour -> SNP
Reform <-> Conservative
Lib Dem -> Labour

(Much delayed but for completeness sake!)
Chart showing second preferences in the by-election. Most popular second preference per party, in percentage terms: SNP to Green 34.2 Labour to SNP 18.3 Reform UK to Conservative 27.1 Conservative to Reform UK 27.9 Green to SNP 44.7 Lib Dem to Labour 24.1 Note that a plurality of voters for Labour at 39.4, Reform UK at 43.5, Conservative at 31.3 and Lib Dem at 29.1 opted not to mark a second preference at all.
November 4, 2025 at 5:07 PM
ballotbox.scot
Evidently people who don't pay attention to the nation's top by-election expert, seeing as the SNP beat Labour in that if you take the Independent out!
October 31, 2025 at 11:04 AM
ballotbox.scot
It gets worse for Labour after transfers (drafting full analysis as we speak): the SNP actually slightly gain ground vs 2022, whilst Labour lose somewhat more. Effect of Reform voters simply not transferring, which could be a huge problem for Labour in 2027.
October 31, 2025 at 10:46 AM
ballotbox.scot
Stirling East (Stirling) by-election results by polling district, strongest area by party:

SNP, Labour: Braehead
Reform, Conservative, Green: Broomridge
Lib Dem: Uhhhh, like, western Bannockburn? The High School is in that bit idk
Chart showing first preferences by polling district. In percentage terms, best district for each party was SNP 41.3, Labour 27.7, Reform 26.6, Conservative 7.6, Green 8.0, Lib Dem 6.2 Map of the ward with polling districts coloured by lead party at the by-election. SNP led in every district including Braehead, Broomridge and Whins of Milton.
October 31, 2025 at 10:40 AM
ballotbox.scot
Yes, I stole the Two-Candidate Preferred terminology from you guys for my website displays; I actually got a very, very angry email from someone who was FURIOUS I'd done so because it's "irrelevant to STV" and an "unwelcome" import from Australia"... but it's very relevant at by-election time!
October 30, 2025 at 11:51 PM
ballotbox.scot
If we do vs 2022:

SNP: -2.3
Lab: +2.2
RUK: New
Con: -16.7
Grn: +1.6
LD: +1.2
(-9.3% in non-returns)

Also, as I noted in preview, this shifts balance of council, where Labour had been pretending to be in sole control with just 4 councillors. No guarantee, but numbers there to change admin now.
Here’s another democratic peculiarity of by-elections: Stirling Council has 23 seats in total. At the moment, Labour are continuing to maintain a ridiculous charade that they are in sole power, despite only having 4 councillors and having been clearly reliant on the 8 Conservatives to remain in office. With that number dropping to 7, until this by-election resolves that de-facto Labour-Conservative administration is tied with the sum of the 9 SNP councillors, 1 Green and 1 formerly-SNP Independent, Alasdair MacPherson. If the SNP do indeed win this by-election, going up to 10 seats, they would be able to form an administration with the support of those two other councillors. There may be bad blood between MacPherson and his former party that prevents that – I’m not up on the detail – but it at least becomes mathematically possible. Again, there’s an interesting democratic point here: should the local administration change due to votes in one ward?
October 30, 2025 at 11:31 PM
ballotbox.scot
Stirling East (Stirling) by-election transfers, votes at final head-to-head stage (vs Dec 24 by-election):

SNP: 988 (44.5%, +2.7)
Labour: 710 (32.0%, -2.4)
Didn't Transfer: 524 (23.6%, -0.2)
October 30, 2025 at 11:26 PM
ballotbox.scot
Stirling East (Stirling) by-election, first preferences (vs Dec 24 by-election):

SNP: 808 (36.4%, +1.8)
Labour: 530 (23.9%, -1.7)
Reform UK: 517 (23.3%, +9.2)
Conservative: 147 (6.6%, -5.6)
Green: 141 (6.3%, +1.3)
Lib Dem: 79 (3.6%, +0.6)
(An Independent got 5.6% in December)

SNP elected stage 6.
October 30, 2025 at 11:19 PM
ballotbox.scot
I'm just saying that if we can do this for council elections (albeit counted by machine), we can absolutely introduce a "okay now we've confirmed there were 387 votes in that ballot box, here's how those were distributed" stage to the hand count too.
A chart showing the breakdown of votes per polling district in the Pollokshields ward at the 2022 Glasgow City Council Elections. It shows the substantial differences across the area; for example, district SS0506 which covers Dumbreck shows a Labour lead with a strong Conservative share and a very weak Green share, whereas district SS1106 shows a Green lead with a much lower Labour share and very weak Conservative result. A chart of the Pollokshields ward showing districts coloured by lead party at the 2022 Glasgow City Council election. The SNP led in Port Eglinton, Craigton, southwestern Shawlands and the northern part of Pollokshields itself. Labour led in Dumbreck, the Conservatives in Pollokshields and Crossmyloof, and the Greens in Strathbungo and northern Shawlands.
October 29, 2025 at 1:17 PM
ballotbox.scot
I do that and indeed a whole array of alternative scenarions on every (credible, so not you, FindOutNow) poll because I am that kind of nerd, e.g. from the most recent poll (helpfully this also made me spot a mistake with the "above 3% only" bar as Alba should not be there..!)
October 28, 2025 at 5:34 PM
ballotbox.scot
Projecting Survation 22 Sep - 14 Oct into seats (changes vs last poll / vs 2021 on new boundaries):

SNP ~ 62 (-1 / -1)
Reform UK ~ 21 (+5 / +21)
Lab ~ 17 (-2 / -4)
Con ~ 10 (-2 / -21)
Green ~ 10 (+4 / nc)
Lib Dem ~ 9 (-4 / +5)

(Projection caveats: ballotbox.scot/projections)
Map of projected seats. SNP win 62 constituencies, Conservatives 1, Labour 3, Lib Dems 5, Greens 1, Reform UK 1. Regional list seats are 0 SNP, 9 Conservative, 14 Labour, 9 Green, 4 Lib Dem, 20 Reform UK. SNP lead in every region except North East where Reform UK lead. Gallagher Index is 14.6 - a lower index means a more proportional result. Map of projected runners up and margins. SNP are second in 7 constituencies, Conservatives in 6, Labour in 27, Lib Dems in 3, Greens in 2, Reform UK in 28. Closest runner up for last list seat per region is Central and Lothians West Labour; Edinburgh and Lothians East Conservative; Glasgow Labour; Highlands and Islands Reform UK; Mid Scotland and Fife Lib Dem; North East Scotland Reform UK; South Scotland Green; West Scotland Reform UK. In percentage terms margins of victory are 11 constituencies below 5, 14 between 5 and 10, 38 between 10 and 20, 10 above 20.
October 26, 2025 at 8:55 AM
ballotbox.scot
New Scottish Parliament poll, Survation 22 Sep - 14 Oct (changes vs 4 - 16 Sep):

List:
SNP ~ 29% (-2)
RUK ~ 20% (+4)
Lab ~ 17% (-1)
Con ~ 12% (-1)
Grn ~ 10% (+2)
LD ~ 10% (-1)
Alba ~ 2% (nc)

Constituency:
SNP ~ 34% (-3)
RUK ~ 22% (+4)
Lab ~ 18% (-2)
Con ~ 10% (-1)
LD ~ 8% (+1)
Grn ~ 7% (+2)
October 26, 2025 at 8:55 AM
ballotbox.scot
The 11th of December is the day for repeats of November 2024 by-elections, as that's when we've got Fort William and Ardnamurchan. Lib Dem win was huge last year but driven, in part, by the candidate. Nonetheless, I'd assume they're still pretty solid favourites barring a popular Independent.
Chart of first preferences at the November 2024 by-election. In percentage terms Lib Dem 58.9, SNP 25.5, Green 6.0, Labour 4.5, Conservative 4.4, Libertarian 0.6 Map of the ward with polling districts coloured by lead party in the November 2024 by-election. The Lib Dems won every single district, from Ardnamurchan through Strontian to Fort William, Glencoe and Kinlochleven.
October 25, 2025 at 12:14 PM
ballotbox.scot
Repeat by-election for Whitburn and Blackburn set for the 11th of December. Labour won last year's by about 5% over the SNP after transfers, which means that given their much poorer position now (polling about 7% lower) it's probably a tossup between the two. Also expect even better Reform result.
Chart of first preferences at the November 2024 by-election. In percentage terms Labour 30.9, SNP 28.9, Reform UK 16.3, Independent 11.9, Conservative 6.7, Lib Dem 2.7, Green 2.6 Chart of transfers in the ward in the November 2024 by-election, re-calculated for a single winner. In percentage terms at final head to head stage, Labour 40.2, SNP 35.0, Didn't Transfer 24.8 Map of the ward with polling districts coloured by lead party in the November 2024 by-election. The SNP led in Seafield, Blackburn and East Whitburn, Labour led in Whitburn and Greenrigg.
October 25, 2025 at 12:10 PM
ballotbox.scot
(For those who do not have Scottish politics brain worms, this is the same ward as is represented by Labour's Altany Craik, whose exclusion from selection for the Westminster seat resulted in one of the funniest anonymous briefings I have ever seen in the papers)
One angry colleague told the Courier, which first reported on the row: “It’s absolutely disgusting. They’re saying he’s not a suitable candidate because his books are too sexy and satanic.
October 21, 2025 at 5:53 PM
ballotbox.scot
Stranraer and the Rhins is the six major parties, plus an Independent, and the fringe "Heritage Party" on the ballot. Most notable aspect of this by-election is it's the first time my finger in the wind prediction has Reform in serious contention...
Infographic with by-election details. Candidates are Conservative Julie Currie, Green Michael Harvard, SNP Simon Jones, Labour John McCutcheon, Reform UK John Roberts, Heritage Gisele Skinner, Independent Shaun Smith, Lib Dem Tracey Warman Vacating is Independent, 2022 winner is Conservative, runner-up SNP, margin of 17.0%. Prediction is Reform UK-Conservative Tossup.
October 20, 2025 at 4:10 PM
ballotbox.scot
Ayr North (South Ayrshire) by-election, most popular second preference by party:

Ind WH <-> SNP
Labour -> SNP
Reform UK -> Ind WH
Conservative -> Labour/Reform UK
Ind DP -> Ind WH
Lib Dem -> Labour
Ind OB -> Ind WH
Chart showing second preferences in the by-election. Most popular second preference per party, in percentage terms: Ind WH to SNP 17.5 SNP to Ind WH 21.1 Labour to SNP 16.5 Reform UK to Ind WH 20.5 Conservative to Labour and Reform UK, both 15.4 Ind DP to Ind WH 28.5 Lib Dem to Labour 23.3 Ind OB to Ind WH 27.5 Note that a plurality of voters for Lib Dem at 33.2, SNP at 33.7 and Reform UK at 37.2 opted not to mark a second preference at all.
October 17, 2025 at 11:36 AM
ballotbox.scot
Ayr North (South Ayrshire) by-election results by polling district, strongest area by party:

Ind WH, Ind OB: Braehead
SNP, Lib Dem: Wallacetown
Labour, Reform UK: Craigie
Conservative: Woodfield
Ind DP: Newton on Ayr
Chart showing first preferences by polling district. In percentage terms, best district for each party was Ind WH 30.5, SNP 34.1, Labour 24.6, Reform 20.2, Conservative 9.8, Ind DP 7.5, Lib Dem 2.6, Ind OB 2.8 Map of the ward with polling districts coloured by lead party at the by-election. Independent WH led in districts covering Woodfield, Newton on Ayr, Braehead, and Dalmilling, SNP led in districts covering Wallacetown and Whittlets, Labour led in district covering Craigie.
October 16, 2025 at 11:32 PM