AztecBreakdown
@aztecbreakdown.bsky.social
For a deeper analysis of San Diego State and Mountain West Hoops.
I know Boise lost to a D2 team, but I fully expect them to come in focused beat Utah Valley today.
November 8, 2025 at 8:36 PM
I know Boise lost to a D2 team, but I fully expect them to come in focused beat Utah Valley today.
Boise State drops its opener against D2 Hawaii Pacific. The good news, it won’t hurt their ratings. The bad news, they looked very un-Bronco like. Poor defense, poor rebounding.
November 4, 2025 at 3:56 AM
Boise State drops its opener against D2 Hawaii Pacific. The good news, it won’t hurt their ratings. The bad news, they looked very un-Bronco like. Poor defense, poor rebounding.
What in the world is going on with Boise?
November 4, 2025 at 2:56 AM
What in the world is going on with Boise?
Assuming he’s healthy by then, Goon is gonna have his hands full with this Koa Peat kid.
November 4, 2025 at 2:00 AM
Assuming he’s healthy by then, Goon is gonna have his hands full with this Koa Peat kid.
Lol. Fans will definitely say #17 happens.
I didn't get it into blog post form this year, but a favorite annual tradition for me: 25 Predictions for the 2025-26 College Basketball Season that I haven't put out anywhere else.
November 1, 2025 at 2:31 AM
Lol. Fans will definitely say #17 happens.
Box score stats for SDSU through 2 exhibiton games. Reese and Taj have been great. BJ Davis with the highest +/-.
October 31, 2025 at 11:57 PM
Box score stats for SDSU through 2 exhibiton games. Reese and Taj have been great. BJ Davis with the highest +/-.
The projections showing the Aztecs some love (although I stand by my assertion that B.J. Davis isn't a PG.) Not surprising that the Aztecs should be good at blocking shots again this season.
October 29, 2025 at 7:09 PM
The projections showing the Aztecs some love (although I stand by my assertion that B.J. Davis isn't a PG.) Not surprising that the Aztecs should be good at blocking shots again this season.
Zeigler recently wrote about 4 high school prospects the Aztecs were recruiting. 3 of them have since committed elsewhere. 6’4 PG Josiah Johnson (⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️) is the last remaining undeclared target that could be paired with wing Zach White (⭐️ ⭐️ ⭐️).
October 29, 2025 at 4:03 PM
Zeigler recently wrote about 4 high school prospects the Aztecs were recruiting. 3 of them have since committed elsewhere. 6’4 PG Josiah Johnson (⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️) is the last remaining undeclared target that could be paired with wing Zach White (⭐️ ⭐️ ⭐️).
Just a quick project to see how PIPM correlates with winning. SDSU's 2020 season can be seen towards the top right corner.
October 25, 2025 at 11:10 PM
Just a quick project to see how PIPM correlates with winning. SDSU's 2020 season can be seen towards the top right corner.
Now pod, if you’re into that sort of thing:
Spotify: spotify.link/bC5hHiVdJXb
iTunes: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
Spotify: spotify.link/bC5hHiVdJXb
iTunes: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
October 24, 2025 at 2:12 PM
Now pod, if you’re into that sort of thing:
Spotify: spotify.link/bC5hHiVdJXb
iTunes: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
Spotify: spotify.link/bC5hHiVdJXb
iTunes: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
On average in the Dutcher era, SDSU teams have finished 10 spots better than their Kenpom preseason projection. They are currently at 30, so it's not crazy to think this team could finish at 20.
October 12, 2025 at 7:34 PM
On average in the Dutcher era, SDSU teams have finished 10 spots better than their Kenpom preseason projection. They are currently at 30, so it's not crazy to think this team could finish at 20.
BJ had 2 assists and 6 turnovers in that game, and was at best the 3rd PG behind Taj all season long.
sdsportsfiend tweeted
@CallMeKinslow I can’t say for sure that SNJ is the starting PG over BJ. If you listen to Elzie’s interview with Jon Schaeffer he said that BJ has impressed him the most of the guards. BJ cooked at PG last year at UCLA when Boyd was recovering from injury. He had to play
@CallMeKinslow I can’t say for sure that SNJ is the starting PG over BJ. If you listen to Elzie’s interview with Jon Schaeffer he said that BJ has impressed him the most of the guards. BJ cooked at PG last year at UCLA when Boyd was recovering from injury. He had to play
October 11, 2025 at 12:48 AM
BJ had 2 assists and 6 turnovers in that game, and was at best the 3rd PG behind Taj all season long.
For fun I wanted to compare the amount of AP All American players the basketball programs of the new MW an dPac-12 have had since 2010. Here are the results:
October 8, 2025 at 11:35 PM
For fun I wanted to compare the amount of AP All American players the basketball programs of the new MW an dPac-12 have had since 2010. Here are the results:
The ncaa committee saying expansion isn’t about money is laughable, but if Reuters is correct here, it’s also about squeezing out low major teams to fit more power programs.
October 2, 2025 at 6:43 PM
The ncaa committee saying expansion isn’t about money is laughable, but if Reuters is correct here, it’s also about squeezing out low major teams to fit more power programs.
PIPM for incoming Mountain West Basketball players:
September 27, 2025 at 6:29 PM
PIPM for incoming Mountain West Basketball players:
Good news: @evanmiya.bsky.social BPR system projects the Aztecs to have 7 of the top 25 players in the conference. No other team has more than 5 (Boise).
The Bad: Having Magoon Gwath down at 20 is criminal. He'll start off a little slow, but be an all conference performer by the end of the season.
The Bad: Having Magoon Gwath down at 20 is criminal. He'll start off a little slow, but be an all conference performer by the end of the season.
September 13, 2025 at 3:11 PM
Good news: @evanmiya.bsky.social BPR system projects the Aztecs to have 7 of the top 25 players in the conference. No other team has more than 5 (Boise).
The Bad: Having Magoon Gwath down at 20 is criminal. He'll start off a little slow, but be an all conference performer by the end of the season.
The Bad: Having Magoon Gwath down at 20 is criminal. He'll start off a little slow, but be an all conference performer by the end of the season.
Magoon Gwath averaged 1.143 points per possession in post up situations last season. The average was 0.91. In his small sample he was elite down low, especially toward the end of the season. If he adds passing ability like on this clip, he can be a complete weapon down low.
September 10, 2025 at 1:47 PM
Magoon Gwath averaged 1.143 points per possession in post up situations last season. The average was 0.91. In his small sample he was elite down low, especially toward the end of the season. If he adds passing ability like on this clip, he can be a complete weapon down low.
I've tracked how transfers' PIPM changes when they come to SDSU, and how much players improve from year to year while at SDSU. If those averages hold, the projected sum PIPM for SDSU next year is 25.08 (not counting Majak, Simmons, or Harrington.)
Past season at SDSU by sum PIPM of players:
2025- 17.85
2024- 17.36
2023- 25.93
2022- 16.52
2021- 21.59
2020- 20.83
2019- 2.03
2018- 16.80
I'm expecting both Byrd and Gwath to be 5+ PIPM players this season, and I think it's reasonable to expect at least three other players to hit the 3+ mark.
2025- 17.85
2024- 17.36
2023- 25.93
2022- 16.52
2021- 21.59
2020- 20.83
2019- 2.03
2018- 16.80
I'm expecting both Byrd and Gwath to be 5+ PIPM players this season, and I think it's reasonable to expect at least three other players to hit the 3+ mark.
September 9, 2025 at 11:37 PM
I've tracked how transfers' PIPM changes when they come to SDSU, and how much players improve from year to year while at SDSU. If those averages hold, the projected sum PIPM for SDSU next year is 25.08 (not counting Majak, Simmons, or Harrington.)
Past season at SDSU by sum PIPM of players:
2025- 17.85
2024- 17.36
2023- 25.93
2022- 16.52
2021- 21.59
2020- 20.83
2019- 2.03
2018- 16.80
I'm expecting both Byrd and Gwath to be 5+ PIPM players this season, and I think it's reasonable to expect at least three other players to hit the 3+ mark.
2025- 17.85
2024- 17.36
2023- 25.93
2022- 16.52
2021- 21.59
2020- 20.83
2019- 2.03
2018- 16.80
I'm expecting both Byrd and Gwath to be 5+ PIPM players this season, and I think it's reasonable to expect at least three other players to hit the 3+ mark.
September 9, 2025 at 10:25 PM
Past season at SDSU by sum PIPM of players:
2025- 17.85
2024- 17.36
2023- 25.93
2022- 16.52
2021- 21.59
2020- 20.83
2019- 2.03
2018- 16.80
I'm expecting both Byrd and Gwath to be 5+ PIPM players this season, and I think it's reasonable to expect at least three other players to hit the 3+ mark.
2025- 17.85
2024- 17.36
2023- 25.93
2022- 16.52
2021- 21.59
2020- 20.83
2019- 2.03
2018- 16.80
I'm expecting both Byrd and Gwath to be 5+ PIPM players this season, and I think it's reasonable to expect at least three other players to hit the 3+ mark.
I’m not watching the game, but it’s crazy to see accounts that called for exciting offense and more passing before, now calling for running the ball and winning with defense…
September 7, 2025 at 5:04 AM
I’m not watching the game, but it’s crazy to see accounts that called for exciting offense and more passing before, now calling for running the ball and winning with defense…
So very lame
Discussions around an EA Sports CBB video game that includes all DI men’s and women’s teams are at an impasse, sources tell Sports Business Journal.
The snag centers on 2K Sports' continued development of its own, more narrow CBB product and exclusivity EA Sports desires.
shorturl.at/7tJAu
The snag centers on 2K Sports' continued development of its own, more narrow CBB product and exclusivity EA Sports desires.
shorturl.at/7tJAu
Sources: EA Sports college basketball video game talks hit snag
EA Sports had won an RFP through CLC for a new NCAA college basketball video game, but 2K Sports' desires to create its own game put the other at risk of ever happening.
shorturl.at
August 28, 2025 at 10:48 PM
So very lame
Feel like Newman, Waters, Byrd, and Gwath are locks to start. So who gets the 5th spot? Seems like it’s either Heide or BJ. My money would be on Heide, but BJ could make for some real exciting offensive lineups.
August 9, 2025 at 5:02 PM
Feel like Newman, Waters, Byrd, and Gwath are locks to start. So who gets the 5th spot? Seems like it’s either Heide or BJ. My money would be on Heide, but BJ could make for some real exciting offensive lineups.
I have long desired either a public inter squad scrimmage or having the current team play a team of players who graduated. Charge a little money for it. Put it to charity or NIL or something. It would do great.
@CallMeKinslow tweeted
Inter squad scrimmage at Viejas would be epic. Could charge $50/ticket that goes towards NIL and I think you’d get a good amount of people there.
Really wish SDSU would do something similar.
💬
@DukeNBA Cam Boozer is really gonna be a cheat code https://t.co/rncMRf2Hnn
Inter squad scrimmage at Viejas would be epic. Could charge $50/ticket that goes towards NIL and I think you’d get a good amount of people there.
Really wish SDSU would do something similar.
💬
@DukeNBA Cam Boozer is really gonna be a cheat code https://t.co/rncMRf2Hnn
Tweet
@CallMeKinslow tweeted
Inter squad scrimmage at Viejas would be epic. Could charge $50/ticket that goes towards NIL and I think you’d get a good amount of people there.
Really wish SDSU would do something similar.
💬
@DukeNBA Cam Boozer is really gonna be a cheat code https://t.co/rncMRf2Hnn
twitter.com
August 6, 2025 at 3:17 PM
I have long desired either a public inter squad scrimmage or having the current team play a team of players who graduated. Charge a little money for it. Put it to charity or NIL or something. It would do great.
Reese is probably the answer here, given we’ve seen the difference between his floor and his ceiling and are unsure how much of that was due to injury.
Sean Newman could be an interesting answer though, given his high passing ability but limitations as a scorer.
Sean Newman could be an interesting answer though, given his high passing ability but limitations as a scorer.
@AztecAnalytics tweeted
Who is the biggest X-factor on the team and what is the biggest obstacle on the schedule this upcoming season?
Let’s hear some thoughts ⬇️
Who is the biggest X-factor on the team and what is the biggest obstacle on the schedule this upcoming season?
Let’s hear some thoughts ⬇️
July 29, 2025 at 6:34 PM
Reese is probably the answer here, given we’ve seen the difference between his floor and his ceiling and are unsure how much of that was due to injury.
Sean Newman could be an interesting answer though, given his high passing ability but limitations as a scorer.
Sean Newman could be an interesting answer though, given his high passing ability but limitations as a scorer.
Reposted by AztecBreakdown
Today should be the day we find out the fate of the NCAA Tournament.
Later this week, the NCAAT selection committee will vote on tourney expansion. Division I's size increase over the past 40 yrs has been a go-to lobbying point, but it's always been a bogus one. I did the math and present to you one last case why March Madness should stay at 68 teams. Big column:
Here's the math and data that prove why the NCAA Tournament doesn't need to expand
Matt Norlander busts the biggest myth regarding tourney expansion and lays out the stakes for a historic week in college athletics
www.cbssports.com
July 10, 2025 at 11:58 AM
Today should be the day we find out the fate of the NCAA Tournament.