EWRCs definitely fascinate me, from Humberto who was stuck in an EWRC for an entire day, to Melissa who was able to strengthen without a traditional EWRC at all. Hopefully this storm can help us further our understanding and improve our ability to identify environments that produce this behavior.

Sobering moment, especially with how close we were to making it thru the season without something like this happening. With continued strengthening until landfall, it's tough to think that Labor Day's "unbreakable" record could have even been broken after recon left, as 891 was definitely in reach 😞

Unfortunately, this seems to be causing greater uncertainty in track, where the faster TCG GFS solution feels the weakness earlier and exits over Hispaniola, while the slower ECMWF solution forms in the WCAR and exits over Cuba. 2-3 days is of vital importance in a dangerous situation like this.

Now that you've mentioned this, I can't unsee this whenever I look at model runs. While early, it looks like the #ECMWF is exhibiting the same behavior for the next wave coming off Africa.

Hopefully the ECMWF team can fix this soon, especially given how valuable the model is for tropical forecasts!

Interestingly, I did see some posts on social media last night about experimental MODIS CO2 analysis that was done on #Humberto, which measured 913mb. I'm not sure how valid this analysis is, but after extrapolating the recent recon information, a peak pressure in the low 910s isn't too far-fetched.

That 924mb dropsonde from recon will make Humberto's TCR changes interesting, especially given how much it has deteriorated since last night's peak (compared in microwave images below), which was already operationally estimated at 924mb. Really makes you wonder how strong it actually was last night.

Last year was a bit similar also; despite an early season anomaly in Beryl, July-early Sep were less active than expected and the NATL really came alive after Helene on 9/24.

The EPAC is also peculiar; we could potentially reach names not seen since the 80s, which I wouldn't have expected this year

That's interesting! I certainly don't envy you all w/ how complex the forecast will be with these 2 twin systems. Even with how far we've gotten, there's always room to improve (esp. w/ genesis - too often models forecast a potential shortie to dissipate when it doesn't, or TCG when none occurs). 😅

Incredible shot! Definitely looks like an image that belongs in a textbook. A ton of appreciation for the people out there flying through the storm to give us valuable data.