@azhuwx.bsky.social
Something to watch this weekend: an extratropical system over Canada will enter the NW Atlantic with potential for subtropical development, much like Karen. Coincidentally, if this is named as a STS, the next name (Melissa) would extend a record streak to 3 consecutive starts as a subtropical storm!
October 16, 2025 at 2:29 AM
Something to watch this weekend: an extratropical system over Canada will enter the NW Atlantic with potential for subtropical development, much like Karen. Coincidentally, if this is named as a STS, the next name (Melissa) would extend a record streak to 3 consecutive starts as a subtropical storm!
Talk about surprises: newly designated #96L could become a subtropical storm in the coming days. The structure of the system is very similar to storms like Patty last year and other subtropical spinups recently, so with continued convection overnight I wouldn't be surprised if this got a name. 🌀
October 9, 2025 at 1:41 AM
Talk about surprises: newly designated #96L could become a subtropical storm in the coming days. The structure of the system is very similar to storms like Patty last year and other subtropical spinups recently, so with continued convection overnight I wouldn't be surprised if this got a name. 🌀
Just for fun: if the AOI along the stalled front does end up developing and taking the name Jerry, it could end up with a track almost exactly the same as Jerry 1995. Of course, odds are only 10% so the system will most likely not develop, but this is quite an interesting coincidence nonetheless. 🌀
October 3, 2025 at 12:33 AM
Just for fun: if the AOI along the stalled front does end up developing and taking the name Jerry, it could end up with a track almost exactly the same as Jerry 1995. Of course, odds are only 10% so the system will most likely not develop, but this is quite an interesting coincidence nonetheless. 🌀
Recon currently investigating #Humberto found a pressure of 928mb despite significant deterioration since last night's peak, which was operationally estimated at 924mb. Knowing this, and given how structurally similar it was to monsters like Dorian/Irma, Humberto's TCR changes will be interesting.
September 29, 2025 at 2:15 AM
Recon currently investigating #Humberto found a pressure of 928mb despite significant deterioration since last night's peak, which was operationally estimated at 924mb. Knowing this, and given how structurally similar it was to monsters like Dorian/Irma, Humberto's TCR changes will be interesting.
Textbook-worthy image of an EWRC with a recent microwave pass of #Humberto: with a distinctive moat separating the outer eyewall and the decaying inner eyewall. It is quite interesting to witness the EWRC process for such a powerful storm without any disruption due to the low-shear environment! 🌀
September 28, 2025 at 9:49 PM
Textbook-worthy image of an EWRC with a recent microwave pass of #Humberto: with a distinctive moat separating the outer eyewall and the decaying inner eyewall. It is quite interesting to witness the EWRC process for such a powerful storm without any disruption due to the low-shear environment! 🌀
Invest #90L is on the verge of TC development, with a significant improvement of organization over the past few days and a near 100% probability of formation within 2 days assigned by the NHC. Recon aircraft will be flying into this system in the afternoon to investigate. The next name is #Fernand.
August 23, 2025 at 4:33 PM
Looks like a timely ASCAT pass over #99L (courtesy of @cyclonicwx.bsky.social) indicates that the system could be near TS designation with gales... certainly not what the models had initially predicted! Reminds me a lot of Gert in '23 when it would seemingly refuse to die until it got a name. 😅
August 21, 2025 at 2:07 PM
Looks like a timely ASCAT pass over #99L (courtesy of @cyclonicwx.bsky.social) indicates that the system could be near TS designation with gales... certainly not what the models had initially predicted! Reminds me a lot of Gert in '23 when it would seemingly refuse to die until it got a name. 😅
I was looking at some data and just encountered this surprising microwave of #99L. Although today is likely the last day it can develop before it hits unfavorable conditions, it certainly is trying to earn a name, with most recent ASCAT passes seemingly showing closed circulation + 34.5kt max winds.
August 20, 2025 at 2:06 PM
I was looking at some data and just encountered this surprising microwave of #99L. Although today is likely the last day it can develop before it hits unfavorable conditions, it certainly is trying to earn a name, with most recent ASCAT passes seemingly showing closed circulation + 34.5kt max winds.
A new ASCAT pass over #99L (courtesy of @cyclonicwx.bsky.social) detected max winds of 38.4kt and multiple barbs near gale force. This wave reminds me of shorties like TD10 '20 and Hermine '22: persistent systems near CV using what little time they have to try for TC status before conditions worsen.
August 20, 2025 at 3:19 AM
A new ASCAT pass over #99L (courtesy of @cyclonicwx.bsky.social) detected max winds of 38.4kt and multiple barbs near gale force. This wave reminds me of shorties like TD10 '20 and Hermine '22: persistent systems near CV using what little time they have to try for TC status before conditions worsen.