A high-amplitude flow pattern, characterized by near-record strength ridging and troughing (respectively) over the western and eastern U.S. and a very wavy jet stream, will bring a progression of notable weather to North America in the coming days.
November 8, 2025 at 11:19 PM
A high-amplitude flow pattern, characterized by near-record strength ridging and troughing (respectively) over the western and eastern U.S. and a very wavy jet stream, will bring a progression of notable weather to North America in the coming days.
#30DayMapChallenge Day 10: Air
🌪️ Animated mesh layers of #hurricane tracks resembling Vincent van Gogh’s Starry Night.
#HurricaneMelissa #Jamaica.
Made with #QGIS. Data from #Copernicus #ECMWF
🌪️ Animated mesh layers of #hurricane tracks resembling Vincent van Gogh’s Starry Night.
#HurricaneMelissa #Jamaica.
Made with #QGIS. Data from #Copernicus #ECMWF
November 10, 2025 at 8:00 PM
#30DayMapChallenge Day 10: Air
🌪️ Animated mesh layers of #hurricane tracks resembling Vincent van Gogh’s Starry Night.
#HurricaneMelissa #Jamaica.
Made with #QGIS. Data from #Copernicus #ECMWF
🌪️ Animated mesh layers of #hurricane tracks resembling Vincent van Gogh’s Starry Night.
#HurricaneMelissa #Jamaica.
Made with #QGIS. Data from #Copernicus #ECMWF
Widespread rainfall, likely on order of at least a couple of inches, is likely later next week in Norcal; in SoCal, rain of some magnitude appears increasingly likely but there is wider plausible range (from light-moderate to rather heavy). But confidence is high in *some* rain.
November 8, 2025 at 11:19 PM
Widespread rainfall, likely on order of at least a couple of inches, is likely later next week in Norcal; in SoCal, rain of some magnitude appears increasingly likely but there is wider plausible range (from light-moderate to rather heavy). But confidence is high in *some* rain.
Then, by late week, pronounced ridge-trough pattern over continental U.S. will shift eastward & partially break down--likely opening the "storm door" along the West coast. A pretty wet period is likely thereafter, with moderate to even heavy rain extending all the way into SoCal.
November 8, 2025 at 11:19 PM
Then, by late week, pronounced ridge-trough pattern over continental U.S. will shift eastward & partially break down--likely opening the "storm door" along the West coast. A pretty wet period is likely thereafter, with moderate to even heavy rain extending all the way into SoCal.
As the ridge-trough sequence reached maximum amplitude on Tue, very warm temperatures will continue in the West but anomalously cold temperatures will develop in the East. In fact, there may even be a day or two of record cold temps in parts of the Southeast.
November 8, 2025 at 11:19 PM
As the ridge-trough sequence reached maximum amplitude on Tue, very warm temperatures will continue in the West but anomalously cold temperatures will develop in the East. In fact, there may even be a day or two of record cold temps in parts of the Southeast.
#Douceur 🌡️📈 𝐕𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐮𝐧𝐞 𝐝𝐨𝐮𝐜𝐞𝐮𝐫 𝐞𝐱𝐜𝐞𝐩𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐧𝐞𝐥𝐥𝐞 𝐥𝐚 𝐬𝐞𝐦𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞 !
Cette récurrence d’une douceur aussi importante en novembre ne peut pas s’expliquer par la simple variabilité du climat. Le changement climatique rend ces épisodes plus fréquents et plus intenses.
🔎 ECMWF - Masse d’air
#Bretagne
Cette récurrence d’une douceur aussi importante en novembre ne peut pas s’expliquer par la simple variabilité du climat. Le changement climatique rend ces épisodes plus fréquents et plus intenses.
🔎 ECMWF - Masse d’air
#Bretagne
November 8, 2025 at 9:56 AM
Over the next few days, balmily warm temperatures will occur across western North America, including California (where temperatures into the 90s are likely in SoCal). Some record warm daytime temperatures are possible, & notably warm overnight temperatures will continue as well.
November 8, 2025 at 11:19 PM
Over the next few days, balmily warm temperatures will occur across western North America, including California (where temperatures into the 90s are likely in SoCal). Some record warm daytime temperatures are possible, & notably warm overnight temperatures will continue as well.
Österreich: Nach dem ECMWF könnte es in einer Woche am 16.11 vom Norden her mit einer Kaltfront aus Skandinavien zu einem Kaltlufteinbruch kommen. Schnee wäre dann teils unter 500 m möglich. Prognose noch unsicher!
#Schnee
#Kaltlufteinbruch
/CG
kachelmannwetter.com/at/modellkar...
#Schnee
#Kaltlufteinbruch
/CG
kachelmannwetter.com/at/modellkar...
Modellkarten für Österreich (Wolken und signifikantes Wetter) | ECMWF/Global Euro HD
ECMWF/Global Euro HD - Aktuellste Prognose für 16.11.2025, 07:00 Uhr des Parameters "Wolken und signifikantes Wetter", Modellkarte mit dem Ausschnitt "Österreich"
kachelmannwetter.com
November 9, 2025 at 9:31 AM
Österreich: Nach dem ECMWF könnte es in einer Woche am 16.11 vom Norden her mit einer Kaltfront aus Skandinavien zu einem Kaltlufteinbruch kommen. Schnee wäre dann teils unter 500 m möglich. Prognose noch unsicher!
#Schnee
#Kaltlufteinbruch
/CG
kachelmannwetter.com/at/modellkar...
#Schnee
#Kaltlufteinbruch
/CG
kachelmannwetter.com/at/modellkar...
Mal schauen ob das ECMWF-Modell richtig liegen wird! Nach diesem Lauf erreicht uns am Freitag (14.11) im Norden eine Kaltfront aus Skandinavien & diese verlagert sich bis am Sonntag in den Süden & teils fällt dann bis ganz runter Schnee!
#Schnee
/CG
kachelmannwetter.com/de/modellkar...
#Schnee
/CG
kachelmannwetter.com/de/modellkar...
Modellkarten für Deutschland (Wolken und signifikantes Wetter) | ECMWF/Global Euro HD
ECMWF/Global Euro HD - Aktuellste Prognose für 16.11.2025, 07:00 Uhr des Parameters "Wolken und signifikantes Wetter", Modellkarte mit dem Ausschnitt "Deutschland"
kachelmannwetter.com
November 9, 2025 at 9:18 AM
Mal schauen ob das ECMWF-Modell richtig liegen wird! Nach diesem Lauf erreicht uns am Freitag (14.11) im Norden eine Kaltfront aus Skandinavien & diese verlagert sich bis am Sonntag in den Süden & teils fällt dann bis ganz runter Schnee!
#Schnee
/CG
kachelmannwetter.com/de/modellkar...
#Schnee
/CG
kachelmannwetter.com/de/modellkar...
Interestingly, one of the causes of this high-amplitude/wavy jet stream pattern is a rather extreme upstream "block"--a persistent and highly anomalous high pressure system over Greenland. This is actually expected to persist, even as CONUS ridge/trough pattern breaks down...
November 8, 2025 at 11:19 PM
Interestingly, one of the causes of this high-amplitude/wavy jet stream pattern is a rather extreme upstream "block"--a persistent and highly anomalous high pressure system over Greenland. This is actually expected to persist, even as CONUS ridge/trough pattern breaks down...
Modelos ECMWF Ensemble e GEFS projetam chuva abaixo do normal no RS ao longo dos próximos 10 dias.
Mapas mostram as anomalias de precipitação previstas para o período.
Cor marrom indica chuva abaixo do normal para a época.
Mapas mostram as anomalias de precipitação previstas para o período.
Cor marrom indica chuva abaixo do normal para a época.
November 8, 2025 at 7:09 PM
Modelos ECMWF Ensemble e GEFS projetam chuva abaixo do normal no RS ao longo dos próximos 10 dias.
Mapas mostram as anomalias de precipitação previstas para o período.
Cor marrom indica chuva abaixo do normal para a época.
Mapas mostram as anomalias de precipitação previstas para o período.
Cor marrom indica chuva abaixo do normal para a época.
Un épisode de douceur remarquable est attendu en milieu de semaine prochaine; alors que nous avons déjà un retard exceptionnel de la gelée sur une grande partie du territoire.
Source: ECMWF / Mathieu Sorel
Source: ECMWF / Mathieu Sorel
November 8, 2025 at 12:36 PM
Un épisode de douceur remarquable est attendu en milieu de semaine prochaine; alors que nous avons déjà un retard exceptionnel de la gelée sur une grande partie du territoire.
Source: ECMWF / Mathieu Sorel
Source: ECMWF / Mathieu Sorel
Mapas mostram as estimativas de chuva acumulada no sul do Brasil entre sexta e sábado conforme a rodada das 18h UTC dos modelos ECMWF, GFS e ICON.
November 7, 2025 at 12:01 AM
Mapas mostram as estimativas de chuva acumulada no sul do Brasil entre sexta e sábado conforme a rodada das 18h UTC dos modelos ECMWF, GFS e ICON.
Rajadas máximas previstas para São Leopoldo entre sexta e sábado conforme a rodada das 18h UTC dos modelos:
ECMWF: 78 km/h
GFS: 57 km/h
ICON: 64 km/h.
ECMWF: 78 km/h
GFS: 57 km/h
ICON: 64 km/h.
November 7, 2025 at 12:17 AM
Rajadas máximas previstas para São Leopoldo entre sexta e sábado conforme a rodada das 18h UTC dos modelos:
ECMWF: 78 km/h
GFS: 57 km/h
ICON: 64 km/h.
ECMWF: 78 km/h
GFS: 57 km/h
ICON: 64 km/h.
Monthly surface air relative humidity anomalies for global land
Global land-averaged relative humidity has decreased over the last 40 years and has remained mostly below average since the early 2000s. In October 2025 it was below its climatological average.
climate.copernicus.eu/precipitatio...
Global land-averaged relative humidity has decreased over the last 40 years and has remained mostly below average since the early 2000s. In October 2025 it was below its climatological average.
climate.copernicus.eu/precipitatio...
November 9, 2025 at 8:39 PM
Monthly surface air relative humidity anomalies for global land
Global land-averaged relative humidity has decreased over the last 40 years and has remained mostly below average since the early 2000s. In October 2025 it was below its climatological average.
climate.copernicus.eu/precipitatio...
Global land-averaged relative humidity has decreased over the last 40 years and has remained mostly below average since the early 2000s. In October 2025 it was below its climatological average.
climate.copernicus.eu/precipitatio...
Mapas mostram as rajadas máximas previstas pelos modelos ECMWF e GFS para o sul do Brasil entre sexta e sábado.
November 7, 2025 at 12:06 AM
Mapas mostram as rajadas máximas previstas pelos modelos ECMWF e GFS para o sul do Brasil entre sexta e sábado.
This is certainly quite robust vorticity spinning in Monday afternoon and evening. (12z ECMWF) Crazy upward vertical motion.
November 8, 2025 at 7:10 PM
This is certainly quite robust vorticity spinning in Monday afternoon and evening. (12z ECMWF) Crazy upward vertical motion.
Madrugadas frias pela frente.
Mapas mostram as temperaturas mínimas previstas pelo modelo ECMWF para o sul do Brasil no domingo, segunda e terça-feira.
Mapas mostram as temperaturas mínimas previstas pelo modelo ECMWF para o sul do Brasil no domingo, segunda e terça-feira.
November 8, 2025 at 7:04 PM
Madrugadas frias pela frente.
Mapas mostram as temperaturas mínimas previstas pelo modelo ECMWF para o sul do Brasil no domingo, segunda e terça-feira.
Mapas mostram as temperaturas mínimas previstas pelo modelo ECMWF para o sul do Brasil no domingo, segunda e terça-feira.
A maior parte do RS deve ter tempo seco nesta quinta-feira.
Mapas mostram as estimativas de chuva acumulada ao longo da quinta conforme a rodada das 12h UTC dos modelos ECMWF, GFS, ICON e UKMET.
Mapas mostram as estimativas de chuva acumulada ao longo da quinta conforme a rodada das 12h UTC dos modelos ECMWF, GFS, ICON e UKMET.
November 5, 2025 at 9:33 PM
A maior parte do RS deve ter tempo seco nesta quinta-feira.
Mapas mostram as estimativas de chuva acumulada ao longo da quinta conforme a rodada das 12h UTC dos modelos ECMWF, GFS, ICON e UKMET.
Mapas mostram as estimativas de chuva acumulada ao longo da quinta conforme a rodada das 12h UTC dos modelos ECMWF, GFS, ICON e UKMET.
Mapa mostra as linhas de pressão atmosférica previstas pelo modelo ECMWF para a madrugada de sábado.
O modelo europeu está posicionado o ciclone mais ao norte, com seu núcleo de 997 hPa perto de Florianópolis.
O modelo europeu está posicionado o ciclone mais ao norte, com seu núcleo de 997 hPa perto de Florianópolis.
November 4, 2025 at 11:57 PM
Mapa mostra as linhas de pressão atmosférica previstas pelo modelo ECMWF para a madrugada de sábado.
O modelo europeu está posicionado o ciclone mais ao norte, com seu núcleo de 997 hPa perto de Florianópolis.
O modelo europeu está posicionado o ciclone mais ao norte, com seu núcleo de 997 hPa perto de Florianópolis.
The persistent Greenland block will be associated with a striking region of well above average temperatures in the Arctic and possibly also much of the U.S. (except for the West Coast--where more persistent troughing and rain will keep things relatively cooler).
November 8, 2025 at 11:20 PM
The persistent Greenland block will be associated with a striking region of well above average temperatures in the Arctic and possibly also much of the U.S. (except for the West Coast--where more persistent troughing and rain will keep things relatively cooler).
2. У ECMWF почти противоположная картина [2]: Западная Европа остаётся в мягком атлантическом воздухе, а адвекция арктического холода происходит в восточную Европу, но в основном через страны Балтии и северо-запад РФ.
На карте [3] прогноз температуры на уровне 850 гПа от канадской модели GEM,..
На карте [3] прогноз температуры на уровне 850 гПа от канадской модели GEM,..
November 10, 2025 at 7:48 PM
2. У ECMWF почти противоположная картина [2]: Западная Европа остаётся в мягком атлантическом воздухе, а адвекция арктического холода происходит в восточную Европу, но в основном через страны Балтии и северо-запад РФ.
На карте [3] прогноз температуры на уровне 850 гПа от канадской модели GEM,..
На карте [3] прогноз температуры на уровне 850 гПа от канадской модели GEM,..
Sim, uma semana atrás, o modelo ECMWF projetava uma pressão mínima de 991 hPa. Se isso se confirmasse, a intensidade da chuva e do vento seria bem maior.
November 7, 2025 at 2:10 PM
Sim, uma semana atrás, o modelo ECMWF projetava uma pressão mínima de 991 hPa. Se isso se confirmasse, a intensidade da chuva e do vento seria bem maior.
Während viele in den nächsten Tagen noch Sonne bekommen, deutet sich zum Wochenende zunächst in den Niederungen immer mehr ein graues und dann auch kühleres Novembersüppchen an. Siehe ECMWF am Samstag. /FR
Modellkarten für Deutschland (Wolken und signifikantes Wetter) | ECMWF/Global Euro HD
ECMWF/Global Euro HD - Aktuellste Prognose für 08.11.2025, 10:00 Uhr des Parameters "Wolken und signifikantes Wetter", Modellkarte mit dem Ausschnitt "Deutschland"
kachelmannwetter.com
November 3, 2025 at 6:00 PM
Während viele in den nächsten Tagen noch Sonne bekommen, deutet sich zum Wochenende zunächst in den Niederungen immer mehr ein graues und dann auch kühleres Novembersüppchen an. Siehe ECMWF am Samstag. /FR
일요일 밤 정도부터 현재 시베리아의 한기를 듬뿍 머금은 고기압이 본격적으로 한반도에 북풍을 몰고 오는데요. 이때 동해상에 있던 저기압이 빠져나가며 폭탄저기압이 형성되며 서고동저형 기압배치가 형성, 강한 북풍이 한반도를 강타하게 됩니다.
기상청에서는 월요일 서울 기온이 무려 전일 대비 9℃ 떨어지는 5℃를 전망하고 있는데요. 18일에는 11월 중순 치고 이례적으로 아침 최저기온 영하를 기록할 가능성도 제기되고 있습니다. (ECMWF 기준 -3℃ 예상)
이번 주말 동안 다음 주 초 있을 추위 대비를 미리미리 해둬야 할 것 같네요.
기상청에서는 월요일 서울 기온이 무려 전일 대비 9℃ 떨어지는 5℃를 전망하고 있는데요. 18일에는 11월 중순 치고 이례적으로 아침 최저기온 영하를 기록할 가능성도 제기되고 있습니다. (ECMWF 기준 -3℃ 예상)
이번 주말 동안 다음 주 초 있을 추위 대비를 미리미리 해둬야 할 것 같네요.
November 10, 2025 at 10:57 PM
일요일 밤 정도부터 현재 시베리아의 한기를 듬뿍 머금은 고기압이 본격적으로 한반도에 북풍을 몰고 오는데요. 이때 동해상에 있던 저기압이 빠져나가며 폭탄저기압이 형성되며 서고동저형 기압배치가 형성, 강한 북풍이 한반도를 강타하게 됩니다.
기상청에서는 월요일 서울 기온이 무려 전일 대비 9℃ 떨어지는 5℃를 전망하고 있는데요. 18일에는 11월 중순 치고 이례적으로 아침 최저기온 영하를 기록할 가능성도 제기되고 있습니다. (ECMWF 기준 -3℃ 예상)
이번 주말 동안 다음 주 초 있을 추위 대비를 미리미리 해둬야 할 것 같네요.
기상청에서는 월요일 서울 기온이 무려 전일 대비 9℃ 떨어지는 5℃를 전망하고 있는데요. 18일에는 11월 중순 치고 이례적으로 아침 최저기온 영하를 기록할 가능성도 제기되고 있습니다. (ECMWF 기준 -3℃ 예상)
이번 주말 동안 다음 주 초 있을 추위 대비를 미리미리 해둬야 할 것 같네요.