Every #auspol commentator when industry policy or state investment is mentioned.

In this graph, while we can see that as the amount of public debt has indeed increased, we can also see that it is Australians who are buying more of it.

Some is held in Australian banks, some is bought by investment firms, & an increasingly large amount has been bought by the RBA. (16/23)

As we can see, GDP and debt move more or less independently from each other: sometimes we get a spike in GDP following an increase in debt; sometimes it moves in the opposite direction.

This tells us that debt isn't irrelevant, but it’s likely other factors that determine economic growth. (12/23)

Sure enough, at 111st for highest debt-to-GDP, Australia is pretty much smack bang in the middle of the global pack. Crucially, when we look at the who is at either end of the spectrum, the picture of how debt impacts an economy isn’t so clear as some would have us believe. (8/23)

As we can see, once it’s framed by Australia’s economic history, our current debt is insignificant: Federation, the Great Depression, & post-war reconstruction necessitated more exponentially higher debt. This means our historical average debt level is 65.2% - nearly double our current debt. (6/23)

So let’s look at debt. Now, the largest spike in the last graph occurred between 2007-10. Some might remember the GFC. Others might remember the stimulus package that saved our economy, making it the only one in the world not to tip into recession.

SPOLIER: Debt saved our economy. (4/23)

The argument usually builds on two facts: debt is currently too high & high debt is bad “economic management”. A graph like this is offered to show how the gov’t has racked up higher & higher debt, & the sky will fall if we don’t pay it back ASAP.

Just one problem: it’s absolutely bull$%@t. (2/23)

Given how much debt has become a part of the election, I though it would be a great topic for a #5Graphs thread 📊🧵!

For me, contextualising public finance is critical because it illustrates how most commentary (& even policies) fail us when it comes to the economy. #ausecon #auspol (1/23)

Can any #auspol psephologist clarify something for me? I must be missing something!

When 18-35 & 35-49 outnumber older generations, & women outnumber men (graphics by @joshnicholas.com et. al), why aren’t the ALP ahead in 2PP nationally?

@shaunratcliff.bsky.social @kossamaras.bsky.social

Man, the Jedi are really going to feel this one #Budget25 #auspol

Now there is a *shitload* of information in this graph, and I wont go through in detail because it’s not useful for our purposes. However, there are 3 things that I’d draw your attention to, The relationship between the following: (21/27)

The lowest points were 2000-01 (-15.2%), 2014-15 (-6.9%), & 2018-19 (-4.1%) & all of them occurred in times of economic crisis: 2000-01 was the tail end of Keating’s ‘recession we had to have’ & 2018-19 was the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. (15/27)

Here we can see the stagnating wages, but more importantly we can see the far greater impact of steel products on housing costs. I’ll save you the trouble of going back to the previous graphs, but the steel product price spikes match up exactly to house price increases in September 2020. (10/27)

When we examine median wages (nominal) in construction & adjusting them for inflation (real), when can see that while it *looks* like nominal wages have been growing, the real wages have actually shruk over the pandemic. (8/27)

However, as you can see, while there was a very steady, stable rate of growth, there was an exponential increase during the pandemic. So while we can say construction costs have grown, & significantly, we need to dig into what’s actually driving that. (6/27)

There is a strong narrative going around the media that the wages of labour/CFMEU/TheBadMens™️ are the reason you can’t buy a house. While it’s tempting to believe this narrative, it’s probably worth looking to see what the data says, & not just what *feels* true. (2/27)

Bornstein, I have a question in absentia: how do you, as patron saint of Gerald’s Bar, respond to this news?