Arman Kafai
@armankafai.bsky.social
Current: 🚙 Data Analyst
Prev: ⚽️ Data w/ FC Dallas
☄️UT Dallas ‘19/20 BS/MS Economics
https://footyanalyticmusings.substack.com/
Prev: ⚽️ Data w/ FC Dallas
☄️UT Dallas ‘19/20 BS/MS Economics
https://footyanalyticmusings.substack.com/
Pinned
2026 Off-Season Preview: LA Galaxy
From MLS Cup to missing the playoffs, the 2025 season was a disaster for the Galaxy
open.substack.com
The LA Galaxy were in cap hell last season with the way their team was structured. They went from MLS Cup champs to bottom of the West. Is their cap healthy? Will they make many changes? For FAM:
Reposted by Arman Kafai
Next up in the offseason preview is CF Montreal, who went through another tough season. They actually admitted to starting a rebuild in 2025. Can they continue building off the young players they’ve acquired? What’s their cap situation like?
For FAM:
For FAM:
2026 Off-Season Preview: CF Montreal
Montreal had turmoil once again, but was there a silver lining going into 2026?
open.substack.com
November 13, 2025 at 12:15 AM
Next up in the offseason preview is CF Montreal, who went through another tough season. They actually admitted to starting a rebuild in 2025. Can they continue building off the young players they’ve acquired? What’s their cap situation like?
For FAM:
For FAM:
Reposted by Arman Kafai
The LA Galaxy were in cap hell last season with the way their team was structured. They went from MLS Cup champs to bottom of the West. Is their cap healthy? Will they make many changes? For FAM:
2026 Off-Season Preview: LA Galaxy
From MLS Cup to missing the playoffs, the 2025 season was a disaster for the Galaxy
open.substack.com
November 14, 2025 at 5:55 PM
The LA Galaxy were in cap hell last season with the way their team was structured. They went from MLS Cup champs to bottom of the West. Is their cap healthy? Will they make many changes? For FAM:
The LA Galaxy were in cap hell last season with the way their team was structured. They went from MLS Cup champs to bottom of the West. Is their cap healthy? Will they make many changes? For FAM:
2026 Off-Season Preview: LA Galaxy
From MLS Cup to missing the playoffs, the 2025 season was a disaster for the Galaxy
open.substack.com
November 14, 2025 at 5:55 PM
The LA Galaxy were in cap hell last season with the way their team was structured. They went from MLS Cup champs to bottom of the West. Is their cap healthy? Will they make many changes? For FAM:
Some of these takes about the schedule change are driving me fucking crazy. @drobertson27.bsky.social, @jonarnoldfc.bsky.social I'm saving my takes for the pod this week because I got some stuff to say.
November 14, 2025 at 2:47 AM
Some of these takes about the schedule change are driving me fucking crazy. @drobertson27.bsky.social, @jonarnoldfc.bsky.social I'm saving my takes for the pod this week because I got some stuff to say.
Reposted by Arman Kafai
If I see one more post about games in January in a cold-weather market I'm going to cry.
I live in Chicago. I get it sucks going to games in cold markets in Nov, Dec and Feb. But the tradeoff of a handful more games in those months in a few markets is 100% worth it for what it means for MLS growth.
I live in Chicago. I get it sucks going to games in cold markets in Nov, Dec and Feb. But the tradeoff of a handful more games in those months in a few markets is 100% worth it for what it means for MLS growth.
November 14, 2025 at 12:53 AM
If I see one more post about games in January in a cold-weather market I'm going to cry.
I live in Chicago. I get it sucks going to games in cold markets in Nov, Dec and Feb. But the tradeoff of a handful more games in those months in a few markets is 100% worth it for what it means for MLS growth.
I live in Chicago. I get it sucks going to games in cold markets in Nov, Dec and Feb. But the tradeoff of a handful more games in those months in a few markets is 100% worth it for what it means for MLS growth.
Another huge move as well. What a meeting these guys had
MLS plans to extend transfer windows a bit beyond when major European windows close after the schedule flips in summer of 2027.
MLS also has gotten green light from FIFA and Concacaf to include the three Canadian MLS teams as domestic, so all 30 MLS clubs will be aligned.
MLS also has gotten green light from FIFA and Concacaf to include the three Canadian MLS teams as domestic, so all 30 MLS clubs will be aligned.
November 13, 2025 at 10:14 PM
Another huge move as well. What a meeting these guys had
Next up, the league is going to have to renegotiate the CBA. It currently runs through 2027 and would expire during the 2027-28 season. If you’ve been reading FAM, I’ve been noting constantly how this gives an opportunity for teams currently to try and do moves anticipating this. Exciting times
BREAKING: MLS owners have voted and passed a schedule change. The league will run from the late summer months through May.
This is due to start in summer of 2027. MLS will take winter break in Jan/Feb
More from @paultenorio.bsky.social on the ground at BOG meeting: www.nytimes.com/athletic/680...
This is due to start in summer of 2027. MLS will take winter break in Jan/Feb
More from @paultenorio.bsky.social on the ground at BOG meeting: www.nytimes.com/athletic/680...
MLS owners vote to flip schedule to European calendar, change format starting in 2027
MLS will soon align with leagues that play from the fall to the spring after a transformational decision made by its owners
www.nytimes.com
November 13, 2025 at 9:23 PM
Next up, the league is going to have to renegotiate the CBA. It currently runs through 2027 and would expire during the 2027-28 season. If you’ve been reading FAM, I’ve been noting constantly how this gives an opportunity for teams currently to try and do moves anticipating this. Exciting times
Congrats MLS!
BREAKING: MLS owners have voted and passed a schedule change. The league will run from the late summer months through May.
This is due to start in summer of 2027. MLS will take winter break in Jan/Feb
More from @paultenorio.bsky.social on the ground at BOG meeting: www.nytimes.com/athletic/680...
This is due to start in summer of 2027. MLS will take winter break in Jan/Feb
More from @paultenorio.bsky.social on the ground at BOG meeting: www.nytimes.com/athletic/680...
MLS owners vote to flip schedule to European calendar, change format starting in 2027
MLS will soon align with leagues that play from the fall to the spring after a transformational decision made by its owners
www.nytimes.com
November 13, 2025 at 9:10 PM
Congrats MLS!
My favorite thing about the MLS schedule change is they had the perfect window and excuse to do it in 2026 and botched that for whatever the hell we will see in 2026 and the first part of 2027
November 13, 2025 at 7:13 PM
My favorite thing about the MLS schedule change is they had the perfect window and excuse to do it in 2026 and botched that for whatever the hell we will see in 2026 and the first part of 2027
Reposted by Arman Kafai
Having so much trouble understanding people panicking about MLS being "up against the NFL and college football."
Folks, the most important part of MLS's season goes up against the NFL and college football RIGHT NOW. This moves that inventory to May, but Aug-Dec is a current MLS reality.
Folks, the most important part of MLS's season goes up against the NFL and college football RIGHT NOW. This moves that inventory to May, but Aug-Dec is a current MLS reality.
November 13, 2025 at 3:13 PM
Having so much trouble understanding people panicking about MLS being "up against the NFL and college football."
Folks, the most important part of MLS's season goes up against the NFL and college football RIGHT NOW. This moves that inventory to May, but Aug-Dec is a current MLS reality.
Folks, the most important part of MLS's season goes up against the NFL and college football RIGHT NOW. This moves that inventory to May, but Aug-Dec is a current MLS reality.
MLS
-Did none of this and now will have two awkward seasons before transitioning scheduled
-Did none of this and now will have two awkward seasons before transitioning scheduled
The #JLeague:
- Spent all of 2023 making a largely convincing public case for fall-spring
- baked in two years to get ready plus a transitional tournament that it hopes will build enthusiasm ahead of the World Cup
- Will start after the WC and hopefully capture momentum from strong Japan showing
- Spent all of 2023 making a largely convincing public case for fall-spring
- baked in two years to get ready plus a transitional tournament that it hopes will build enthusiasm ahead of the World Cup
- Will start after the WC and hopefully capture momentum from strong Japan showing
Sources: MLS owners are expected to vote on flipping to fall-spring calendar at Thursday's BOG meeting. Could happen as soon as 2027.
Also: Changes to competition format expected too, including single league table + divisions.
w/ @paultenorio.bsky.social
www.nytimes.com/athletic/680...
Also: Changes to competition format expected too, including single league table + divisions.
w/ @paultenorio.bsky.social
www.nytimes.com/athletic/680...
November 13, 2025 at 2:38 PM
MLS
-Did none of this and now will have two awkward seasons before transitioning scheduled
-Did none of this and now will have two awkward seasons before transitioning scheduled
Reposted by Arman Kafai
The #JLeague:
- Spent all of 2023 making a largely convincing public case for fall-spring
- baked in two years to get ready plus a transitional tournament that it hopes will build enthusiasm ahead of the World Cup
- Will start after the WC and hopefully capture momentum from strong Japan showing
- Spent all of 2023 making a largely convincing public case for fall-spring
- baked in two years to get ready plus a transitional tournament that it hopes will build enthusiasm ahead of the World Cup
- Will start after the WC and hopefully capture momentum from strong Japan showing
Sources: MLS owners are expected to vote on flipping to fall-spring calendar at Thursday's BOG meeting. Could happen as soon as 2027.
Also: Changes to competition format expected too, including single league table + divisions.
w/ @paultenorio.bsky.social
www.nytimes.com/athletic/680...
Also: Changes to competition format expected too, including single league table + divisions.
w/ @paultenorio.bsky.social
www.nytimes.com/athletic/680...
Sources: MLS owners set to vote on season calendar, format changes Thursday
www.nytimes.com
November 13, 2025 at 1:51 PM
The #JLeague:
- Spent all of 2023 making a largely convincing public case for fall-spring
- baked in two years to get ready plus a transitional tournament that it hopes will build enthusiasm ahead of the World Cup
- Will start after the WC and hopefully capture momentum from strong Japan showing
- Spent all of 2023 making a largely convincing public case for fall-spring
- baked in two years to get ready plus a transitional tournament that it hopes will build enthusiasm ahead of the World Cup
- Will start after the WC and hopefully capture momentum from strong Japan showing
Next up in the offseason preview is CF Montreal, who went through another tough season. They actually admitted to starting a rebuild in 2025. Can they continue building off the young players they’ve acquired? What’s their cap situation like?
For FAM:
For FAM:
2026 Off-Season Preview: CF Montreal
Montreal had turmoil once again, but was there a silver lining going into 2026?
open.substack.com
November 13, 2025 at 12:15 AM
Next up in the offseason preview is CF Montreal, who went through another tough season. They actually admitted to starting a rebuild in 2025. Can they continue building off the young players they’ve acquired? What’s their cap situation like?
For FAM:
For FAM:
Yes to everything listed here. Love the concept of divisions and playing everyone in the league at least once per season. It’s the best way to do it with how vast MLS is
Sources: MLS owners are expected to vote on flipping to fall-spring calendar at Thursday's BOG meeting. Could happen as soon as 2027.
Also: Changes to competition format expected too, including single league table + divisions.
w/ @paultenorio.bsky.social
www.nytimes.com/athletic/680...
Also: Changes to competition format expected too, including single league table + divisions.
w/ @paultenorio.bsky.social
www.nytimes.com/athletic/680...
Sources: MLS owners set to vote on season calendar, format changes Thursday
www.nytimes.com
November 12, 2025 at 7:32 PM
Yes to everything listed here. Love the concept of divisions and playing everyone in the league at least once per season. It’s the best way to do it with how vast MLS is
Zimmerman was on a huge DP deal. This move gives Nashville a bit more flexibility going into the offseason, with the potential to go 2+4 in roster construction and add to the base of the team.
For Zimmerman, leads to a new start elsewhere. I can see a TAM deal for him with a team that is competing
For Zimmerman, leads to a new start elsewhere. I can see a TAM deal for him with a team that is competing
🇺🇸 BREAKING: Club legend Walker Zimmerman will depart Nashville SC this winter when his contract expires, per sources.
Zimmerman is a two-time MLS Defender of the Year winner. Joined ahead of inaugural season. Lifted U.S. Open Cup this year.
www.nytimes.com/athletic/680...
Zimmerman is a two-time MLS Defender of the Year winner. Joined ahead of inaugural season. Lifted U.S. Open Cup this year.
www.nytimes.com/athletic/680...
Sources: USMNT's Zimmerman to leave Nashville SC, become free agent
www.nytimes.com
November 12, 2025 at 5:15 PM
Zimmerman was on a huge DP deal. This move gives Nashville a bit more flexibility going into the offseason, with the potential to go 2+4 in roster construction and add to the base of the team.
For Zimmerman, leads to a new start elsewhere. I can see a TAM deal for him with a team that is competing
For Zimmerman, leads to a new start elsewhere. I can see a TAM deal for him with a team that is competing
Reposted by Arman Kafai
I’m beginning some off-season previews of some team, starting with St. Louis City SC. They’re attempting to usher in a new era with CSO Corey Wray, but what options do they have? Is Burki’s new deal too much to overcome? Let’s dive in. On FAM:
2026 Off-Season Preview: St. Louis City SC
After a down 2025, how does STL get find its 2023 magic?
open.substack.com
November 6, 2025 at 8:27 PM
I’m beginning some off-season previews of some team, starting with St. Louis City SC. They’re attempting to usher in a new era with CSO Corey Wray, but what options do they have? Is Burki’s new deal too much to overcome? Let’s dive in. On FAM:
I’m beginning some off-season previews of some team, starting with St. Louis City SC. They’re attempting to usher in a new era with CSO Corey Wray, but what options do they have? Is Burki’s new deal too much to overcome? Let’s dive in. On FAM:
2026 Off-Season Preview: St. Louis City SC
After a down 2025, how does STL get find its 2023 magic?
open.substack.com
November 6, 2025 at 8:27 PM
I’m beginning some off-season previews of some team, starting with St. Louis City SC. They’re attempting to usher in a new era with CSO Corey Wray, but what options do they have? Is Burki’s new deal too much to overcome? Let’s dive in. On FAM:
NOT SO FAST ASSHOLE!!!!
Lmao I hate this format so much. Minnesota should yank all of their players and just prep for Game 3. This is over
November 4, 2025 at 4:46 AM
NOT SO FAST ASSHOLE!!!!
Lmao I hate this format so much. Minnesota should yank all of their players and just prep for Game 3. This is over
November 4, 2025 at 4:37 AM
Lmao I hate this format so much. Minnesota should yank all of their players and just prep for Game 3. This is over
About to make a very strange analogy. Have noticed this a bit this year but FC Dallas play like the way many people think the OKC Thunder play defense. It’s always on the line and super physical in the box. If a ref lets that go, its advantage FC Dallas as we’re seeing so far through 45 minutes
November 2, 2025 at 2:37 AM
About to make a very strange analogy. Have noticed this a bit this year but FC Dallas play like the way many people think the OKC Thunder play defense. It’s always on the line and super physical in the box. If a ref lets that go, its advantage FC Dallas as we’re seeing so far through 45 minutes
Reposted by Arman Kafai
Friday Stat Dump: Big Chances
I've been told big chances are subjective. Meaning, the analyst coding the game identifies a "big scoring chance" from their perspective. Two analysts could disagree.
Here are the big chances by MLS team in the 2025 season:
1/
I've been told big chances are subjective. Meaning, the analyst coding the game identifies a "big scoring chance" from their perspective. Two analysts could disagree.
Here are the big chances by MLS team in the 2025 season:
1/
November 1, 2025 at 3:28 PM
Friday Stat Dump: Big Chances
I've been told big chances are subjective. Meaning, the analyst coding the game identifies a "big scoring chance" from their perspective. Two analysts could disagree.
Here are the big chances by MLS team in the 2025 season:
1/
I've been told big chances are subjective. Meaning, the analyst coding the game identifies a "big scoring chance" from their perspective. Two analysts could disagree.
Here are the big chances by MLS team in the 2025 season:
1/
That Vancouver-Dallas game was an absolute shellacking. And Vancouver was without Laborda and was starting Ralph Priso as a CB. I mean you gotta do better than essentially 0 xG
October 27, 2025 at 1:57 AM
That Vancouver-Dallas game was an absolute shellacking. And Vancouver was without Laborda and was starting Ralph Priso as a CB. I mean you gotta do better than essentially 0 xG
I’m sorry so FC Dallas paid $100k for Orejarena’s HG rights and he’s cut in two years at 17 (turning 18 soon)? And they only played him 9 times?
Seems really bizarre
Seems really bizarre
According to multiple sources, #NTSC roster purged today. All signed to 2nd team guys had options declined except Essel and *he* declined.
So Gall, DuBois, Sangare, Cisset, Harms, Essel, Bulkeley, Cangiano, and Orejarena out.
Kaakoush, injured, is apparently in talks.
So Gall, DuBois, Sangare, Cisset, Harms, Essel, Bulkeley, Cangiano, and Orejarena out.
Kaakoush, injured, is apparently in talks.
October 23, 2025 at 8:15 PM
I’m sorry so FC Dallas paid $100k for Orejarena’s HG rights and he’s cut in two years at 17 (turning 18 soon)? And they only played him 9 times?
Seems really bizarre
Seems really bizarre
Reposted by Arman Kafai
Did something fun this week and made my MLS Best XI and 2nd Best XI. We’ll do some more salary cap stuff later on as the off-season begins but for now, enjoy the teams I made!
FAM's Best MLS XIs
Alright, it's best XI season and I wanted to get in on the fun
open.substack.com
October 21, 2025 at 3:23 PM
Did something fun this week and made my MLS Best XI and 2nd Best XI. We’ll do some more salary cap stuff later on as the off-season begins but for now, enjoy the teams I made!
Did something fun this week and made my MLS Best XI and 2nd Best XI. We’ll do some more salary cap stuff later on as the off-season begins but for now, enjoy the teams I made!
FAM's Best MLS XIs
Alright, it's best XI season and I wanted to get in on the fun
open.substack.com
October 21, 2025 at 3:23 PM
Did something fun this week and made my MLS Best XI and 2nd Best XI. We’ll do some more salary cap stuff later on as the off-season begins but for now, enjoy the teams I made!