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anlomedad.bsky.social
anlomedad
@anlomedad.bsky.social
770 followers 1.7K following 6.8K posts
I know nothing of climate change. But its complexity is fascinating.
And how should we, our societies, live within biophysical planetary boundaries?
*322ppm
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anlomedad.bsky.social
Sediment deposition in some places in German mudflats is slowing down, drowning beneath rising sea levels. Besides damage to biodiv, a loss of mudflats also means stress to dike protection. Categories: “Worse than previously thought” and “Uncertainty is not our friend”
www.nature.com/articles/s43...
2 maps of Germany's North-West coast. One from the paper, the other from the web with pencilled-in names of villages and towns. Most areas are colour-coded as "shallowing" which is a good thing because it means that sediments are accumulating at a higher rate than sealevel rise, thus increasing protection and biodiv. Some areas are categorized as quasi-stable, where sediments accumulate between lower and upper uncertainty range of sealevel rise. 5 areas are red = they're deepening because sediments aren't accumulating at the rate of sea level rise. Around the islands Sylt and Föhr, at the Elbe inlet to Hamburg's port, at Bremerhaven, and near Borkum and Emden on the border to Holland. Another map in the paper shows that only the deepening around islands Sylt and Föhr were known so far. The other locations are coinciding with big port infrastructure. Source: labelled map: https://www.wellnessurlaub-nordsee.de/karte-nordsee.html source paper: https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-025-02974-y
November 24, 2025 at 9:36 AM
anlomedad.bsky.social
Oh. Sedimentablagerung im Watt verlangsamt sich an einigen Stellen. Dadurch versinkt zunehmend mehr Watt unterm steigenden Meeresspiegel. Neben Schaden für Biodiv heißt der Wattverlust auch Schutzverlust an Deichen. Kategorien "Worse than previously thought" und "Uncertainty is not our friend."
2 maps of Germany's North-West coast. One from the paper, the other from the web with pencilled-in names of villages and towns. Most areas are colour-coded as "shallowing" which is a good thing because it means that sediments are accumulating at a higher rate than sealevel rise, thus increasing protection and biodiv. Some areas are categorized as quasi-stable, where sediments accumulate between lower and upper uncertainty range of sealevel rise. 5 areas are red = they're deepening because sediments aren't accumulating at the rate of sea level rise. Around the islands Sylt and Föhr, at the Elbe inlet to Hamburg's port, at Bremerhaven, and near Borkum and Emden on the border to Holland. Another map in the paper shows that only the deepening around islands Sylt and Föhr were known so far. The other locations are coinciding with big port infrastructure. Source: labelled map: https://www.wellnessurlaub-nordsee.de/karte-nordsee.html source paper: https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-025-02974-y
November 24, 2025 at 9:36 AM
anlomedad.bsky.social
Das is ja echt wieder peinlich. Aber ich wusste auch nich, dass ich bei Websuche nach Bildern vom Rothirsch auch Damhirsche angezeigt kriege.
Ich glaub, Damhirsche hab ich noch nie gesehen.
Bis heute ^^
2 Fotos aus Wikipedia. Links Damhirsch mit Schaufelgeweih und weißen Punkten im rötlich braunen Rückenfell. Rechts Rothirsch mit Geweihspitzen statt schaufelig, und ohne weiße Punkte.
November 23, 2025 at 8:41 AM
anlomedad.bsky.social
A propos Habeck. www.bundesnetzagentur.de/DE/Gasversor...
GasKati Reiche kann nich ma Gas. Und sowas wählen Leute 🤦‍♀️. 13% Differenz zum bisherigen Wochenminimum im Gasspeicher. Das Minimum war 2018 – nicht etwa in Habecks Amtszeit.
Und LaNina wird SSW verursachen = coole Kälteeinbrüche. So much joy.
Liniengrafik zum Füllstand der dt. Gasspeicher. Füllstand 18. November: 73%. Seit 17. September ist der Füllstand unterm bisherigen Minimum und der Abstand zum Minimum wuchs bis 18. November auf 13% Differenz.
November 23, 2025 at 5:05 AM
anlomedad.bsky.social
October in Antarctica from Era5-Land
cds.climate.copernicus.eu/datasets/rea...
coordinates extracted like in ClimateReanalyzer: from 66.5S.
The nc-file shows that Era5-Land doesn't apply a strict land-only mask, where it includes the Ross shelf (?) at the plot edges.
2 line charts for October average 2m air temperature in Antarctica since 1950. Era5-Land puts 2025 just above the 2016 value, nearing -35°C. It's a departure from the 1980-2010 average of 3C. Era5 from ClimateReanalyzer puts 2025 at -23.5, almost 2C above the 2016 value. And also a 3C departure from the 1980-2010 average. source: https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/datasets/reanalysis-era5-land-monthly-means?tab=overview https://climatereanalyzer.org/research_tools/monthly_tseries/ Map of Antarctica with the colour-coded air temperature of October 2025 in Kelvin. The continent's edges are hot-tish red and orange, the interior is cool blue. The land mask from the application Panoply shows that a large chunk of sea ice on the right and left plot edges is part of the Era5-Land temperature for Antarctica. source: https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/datasets/reanalysis-era5-land-monthly-means?tab=overview
November 21, 2025 at 3:11 PM
anlomedad.bsky.social
Those 10Gt/a CO2 removal from 2040ff don't require BECCS and DACS.
We today have agency to save our world!
Change our diet (by law), remove cows, sheep, pigs, to give back to nature all land used for animal-sourced food.
The ensuing CO2 drawdown doesn't harm biodiv and requires no energy: 700Gt CO2!
Map of the world with regions highlighted in shades of green denoting the area in use for animal-sourced food. All of Europe is light green, about 50 to 70t per hectare. Southern Brazil is dark green, as well as patches in middle America and China, >130t / hectare. Most other non-desert and non-rainforest regions are very light green, 30t / hectare. Caption: "Distribution of carbon in potential vegetation in areas of present-day animal feed croplands and pastures combined for each 5 arcmin grid cell. Colour corresponds to the product of land area presently under cultivation multiplied by the potential vegetation carbon density, minus the quantity presently stored in agricultural vegetation." Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-020-00603-4
November 20, 2025 at 7:21 AM
anlomedad.bsky.social
Cutting SO2 emissions increases precipitation? JA!💡
So that's why Cologne in the 1990s flooded al the time!
My girlie-pink marker says,
we're on a SSP1-1.9 pathway ! Who'd have thunk. Progress 🍻🥳
RCP8.5 only achieves this level of SO2 by 2040.
acp.copernicus.org/articles/19/... Lund et al 2019
Line charts of historical and projected aerosol emissions in 4 shared socio-economic pathways. Historical goes up to 2015, projection goes to 2100. SO2 peaked at 140Mt per year in 1980 and reached 115 in year 2015. SSP1-1.9 achieves 73Mt in year 2025, continues steep decline and plateaus from 2045 at 20Mt per year. SSP2-4.5 and RCP8.5 achieve this only by 2040 and then continue slow decline to 20Mt by year 2100. SSP3-7.0 differs from its cousin RCP8.5 and plateaus at an enormous 100Mt SO2 per year all the way to year 2100. https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/19/13827/2019/acp-19-13827-2019.html
November 19, 2025 at 7:17 AM
anlomedad.bsky.social
😁 Most of the dinosaur time, land-ocean was really unrecognizable, a different planet.
When they got killed by the rock, earth system was still very far from today's setup, storm gestation too. India, Himalaya, Nino/Nina didn't exist, Indian Ocean flowed all the way to Gibraltar, Panama was open,...
November 19, 2025 at 6:22 AM
anlomedad.bsky.social
Plus Dörfer in anderen Regionen, je nach klimatischer und kultureller Geeignetheit.
So schätze ich das.
Wie lange verbreiten die ganzen europ. AKW tödlichen Regen, wenn sie nicht mehr gewartet werden u keine Sarkophage kriegen? Sinkt dt. Lebenserwartung auf <30 wegen unbehandelt bleibender Krebse?
map of Europe with active and inactive nuclear reactors. Strong clustering in UK, France, Belgium, Germany. About 50 in total. global map with nuclear reactors as black dots. Europe is one big black blotch. Japan and East USA as well.
November 17, 2025 at 11:06 AM
anlomedad.bsky.social
"The man with the gun who wanted to shoot people in small boats? He wasn't born that way.
The same system that pollutes our air and rivers is polluting our minds. All of us. So we must change the system. And we must draw a line now. Let us hold this line. Together!" Zack Polanski
November 17, 2025 at 9:29 AM
anlomedad.bsky.social
Ja, in 200 Jahren oder in 2000 irgendwann? Oder vll gar nicht?

Dir entgeht glaub ich die Prämisse:
2040-2050 schrumpft Bevölkerung durch asoziale Politik+Klimastress von 9 Milliarden auf 1Mrd, G-North ist ~entvölkert. Fossile Energie wirds nie wieder geben.

Was passiert dann? Mit THG und Biomen?
Aerial photo of a South American jungle, dotted with 9 ruins of high-rise buildings from a collapsed civilisation. All that remains of London, Rio, Tokyo and all agricultural area formerly in use by 9bn people.
November 17, 2025 at 9:00 AM
anlomedad.bsky.social
Tja. Das findet offizielle Forschung für RCPcollapse raus💡

Aber man kann was aus andern Papern ableiten. 100% vegan schluckt 740Gt CO2 in 40 Jahren www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Netto 555, da die Senken derweil ausgasen, da ja niemand mehr fossil-CO2 emittiert.
Alles andre überwuchert auch: 555x2?
Aerial photo of a South American jungle, with 9 ruins of high-rise buildings from a collapsed civilisation. All that remains of London, Rio, Tokyo 40 years after civilisation collapse.
November 17, 2025 at 8:05 AM
anlomedad.bsky.social
Growing a spirit of global solidarity can prevent losing the production capacity in [sub-]tropical states so existential for our complex 🌐supply chains.
Instead of sadist scapegoatism spread by fascists, we therefore must foster hope and trust in people, in neighbours, in politics, eg 🇬🇧Zack Polanski
November 17, 2025 at 7:34 AM
anlomedad.bsky.social
Also, politicians don't update their climate knowledge. Even IF advisors informed them.
So painfully plain in Obama's prep talk to his daughter.
Says, 2C is manageable and thinks, 3.5C would see "100mio people migrate, at 2.5C only a few"!

IPCC SR15: 90mio at 1.5C, 900mio at 3C – numbers for 2050!!
November 17, 2025 at 7:16 AM
anlomedad.bsky.social
SCR=sheep & cow removal frees up space, solves biodiv crisis, cuts CH4, takes down massive amounts of CO2 without energy cost, improves planetary and human health. It can and must be done while fossil emissions are rapidly cut, and before CO2ppm starts to drop. Why?
To avoid outgassing by sinks.
3/
Title and abstract of "The effectiveness of net negative carbon dioxide emissions in reversing anthropogenic climate change" by Katarzyna B Tokarska and Kirsten Zickfeld 2015. Link below. Highlighted is this: "During the net-negative emission phase, artificial CO2 removal is opposed by CO2 outgassing from natural carbon sinks, with the efficiency of CO2 removal—here defined as the drop in atmospheric CO2 per unit negative emission—decreasing with the total amount of negative emissions." Link: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094013 Figure 5 and a text snippet from the paper. Link below. Figure shows 6 maps illustrating what the table columns stated regarding outgassing in the negative emission phase. The oceans outgas around Antarctica and at the El Nino 1-2 region. All land mass outgas, except the Sahara, Greenland and Antarctica. The text snippet explains why during the positive emission phase, the tropics lose their carbon sink property and become sources of CO2: because soil respirates more than photosynthesis can store. link: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094013
November 17, 2025 at 6:14 AM
anlomedad.bsky.social
Da man eSCR schon tun kann lange bevor fossile Energie-Emissionen auf 0 sind, sind die Gt CO2 brutto wie netto, die so in die erweiterte Natur gehen.
Aber sobald CO2ppm tatsächlich sinkt, gasen die Senken 50% des CO2Removal wieder aus, was ja Öko- und Energiekosten von BECCS/DACS noch teurer macht.
Title and abstract of "The effectiveness of net negative carbon dioxide emissions in reversing anthropogenic climate change" by Katarzyna B Tokarska and Kirsten Zickfeld 2015. Link below. Highlighted is this: "During the net-negative emission phase, artificial CO2 removal is opposed by CO2 outgassing from natural carbon sinks, with the efficiency of CO2 removal—here defined as the drop in atmospheric CO2 per unit negative emission—decreasing with the total amount of negative emissions." Link: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094013 Figure 5 and a text snippet from the paper. Link below. Figure shows 6 maps illustrating what the table columns stated regarding outgassing in the negative emission phase. The oceans outgas around Antarctica and at the El Nino 1-2 region. All land mass outgas, except the Sahara, Greenland and Antarctica. The text snippet explains why during the positive emission phase, the tropics lose their carbon sink property and become sources of CO2: because soil respirates more than photosynthesis can store. link: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094013
November 17, 2025 at 3:48 AM
anlomedad.bsky.social
Supply chain collapse when?
Car buyers in Indonesia decline.
So the # of people able to buy cars is already shrinking. Due to 🌐and🇮🇩economic Long-Covid, coupled with Putin's war and €€-gas. Both basically fascist politics, and they lower global production/export.
Add climate stress & social unrest...
Diagram titled "Environmental shocks can cascade across societies". It shows a sketched, four-stepped waterfall with groups of keywords in each step, cascading from the top, "current context" with keywords like Income Inequality and Global Warming, to the 2nd step, "building stressors" with keywords like International Trade Complexity and Drought, to the third step, "Sudden And Gradual Tipping Points" with keywords like Market Volatility and Water Conflict and Price Spikes and Displacement to the last step, "Systemic Failure" with keywords like Migration, Currency Destabilisation, Food Riots, Political Destabilisation. Along the steps of the waterfall it says "Each component displays complex correlations and feedback loops." Diagram how impacts from a heatwave like the one in March/April 2022 in Pakistan and India affects all sectors. From the scientific report by the World Weather Attribution team. The schematic is a form of flower petals with labels in each petal connected by arrows to low-level keywords in the same petal and to other petals. The center of the flower says Heatwave. One petal is labelled Agriculture, a keyword within the petal is Decreased Crop Yields, connected by arrows pointing to Lost Wages For Farmers, Soaring Food Prices, Outdoor Workers Need to Adjust or diminish Working Hours, Decreased Labour Base, Immobility. Immobility is halfway in another petal: TRANSPORT. Which, by way of Power Outages and Increase In Coal Trains, is connected to Train Cancellations. Other petals are labelled Health, Environment, Economy. source: https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-made-devastating-early-heat-in-india-and-pakistan-30-times-more-likely/
November 16, 2025 at 6:33 PM
anlomedad.bsky.social
Nuclear winter ist nich die entscheidende Frage.
Wenn Du damit auch andeutest, mein Lieferkettenzusammenbruch 2040-2050 wär ähnlich unrealistisch wie eine Kontinentalaktion mit Atomraketen, denkst Du bitte bitte mal 10min drüber nach, wie Klimastress und fascist Politics die Dominosteine umkippen? 🙏
Diagram titled "Environmental shocks can cascade across societies". It shows a sketched, four-stepped waterfall with groups of keywords in each step, cascading from the top, "current context" with keywords like Income Inequality and Global Warming, to the 2nd step, "building stressors" with keywords like International Trade Complexity and Drought, to the third step, "Sudden And Gradual Tipping Points" with keywords like Market Volatility and Water Conflict and Price Spikes and Displacement to the last step, "Systemic Failure" with keywords like Migration, Currency Destabilisation, Food Riots, Political Destabilisation. Along the steps of the waterfall it says "Each component displays complex correlations and feedback loops." Diagram how impacts from a heatwave like the one in March/April 2022 in Pakistan and India affects all sectors. From the scientific report by the World Weather Attribution team. The schematic is a form of flower petals with labels in each petal connected by arrows to low-level keywords in the same petal and to other petals. The center of the flower says Heatwave. One petal is labelled Agriculture, a keyword within the petal is Decreased Crop Yields, connected by arrows pointing to Lost Wages For Farmers, Soaring Food Prices, Outdoor Workers Need to Adjust or diminish Working Hours, Decreased Labour Base, Immobility. Immobility is halfway in another petal: TRANSPORT. Which, by way of Power Outages and Increase In Coal Trains, is connected to Train Cancellations. Other petals are labelled Health, Environment, Economy. source: https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-made-devastating-early-heat-in-india-and-pakistan-30-times-more-likely/
November 16, 2025 at 6:24 PM
anlomedad.bsky.social
Die Arbeitskraft von🇧🇷+SOAsien ist ja nicht ersetzbar. De-Komplexisierung oder Nationalisierung von Finanz- und Produktsystemen ist ungesteuert unmöglich. Heißt, keiner kann auf🇧🇷+SOAsien verzichten.
Fallen🇧🇷+SOAsien aus wegen Klimastress und faschist. 🌐SozPolitik, bricht immer mehr Produktion weg:
2/
Photo of a row of domino pieces, falling.
November 16, 2025 at 6:00 PM
anlomedad.bsky.social
Grmpf. Du hast zB auch 30MtSO2 in 11 Jahren wegfallen lassen – ohne die anderen THG synchron zu reduzieren. Dabei kommt eben sowas raus. Das geht aber nich so weiter. Es gibt keine Industrie / kein einzelnes Land mehr, das diese SO2-Reduzierung UND asynchron zu THG hinlegt.
Guckstu Waage: SO2 = CH4.
Bar chart by Glen Peters for several human-generated climate forcers and their respective net contribution to the decadal warming 2010-2019. CO2: +0.79C CH4: +0.51 N2O: +0.09 Land-use albedo: -0.08 NOx: -0.14 SO2: -0.48 Data is the same as in a AR6-WG1 chapter 6 figure but Glen's illustration is more intuitive.
November 16, 2025 at 5:28 PM
anlomedad.bsky.social
SO2: their near-0 CH4 from energy by 2040 logically applies to SO2 as well. It occurs only over land, rather regional. But it's still -70Mt and in 20yrs.

🚢IMO + China cut -30Mt SO2 in 15yrs and raised warming rate to 0.3/decade📈.

But in this model, all GHG drop in sync with SO2, hence 🌡️rate drops!
Bar chart by Glen Peters for several human-generated climate forcers and their respective net contribution to the decadal warming 2010-2019. CO2: +0.79C CH4: +0.51 N2O: +0.09 Land-use albedo: -0.08 NOx: -0.14 SO2: -0.48 Data is the same as in a AR6-WG1 chapter 6 figure but Glen's illustration is more intuitive.
November 16, 2025 at 4:06 PM
anlomedad.bsky.social
The thread doesn't go into policy advice.
🐑🐄SCR-policies are easy to imagine: one last big BBQ.
And how to de-methane-ify energy by 2040? It must mean full coal phase-out and also decommissioning all gas power plants.
But such a reduction speed & depth must surely rely on demand-side, ie rationing?
Text: How to pull a Churchill: Triage in industry with itemised rations for all during transformation project years.
November 16, 2025 at 4:06 PM
anlomedad.bsky.social
Trees can't cope with the rate of change either.
C3 plants=all trees, start respirating more CO2 than they use for photosynthesis at 24C. That's why low altitude tropical and subtropical forests die, even IF they'd have enough water & nutrients. Boreal carbon sink already collapses too, see🇪🇺reports.
Line chart for photosynthesis and ecosystem respiration in C3 and C4 plants on a temperature scale. C3 plant photosynthesis is highest at 16°C then drops and encounters the respiration line at 24°C, meaning, from here on, respiration is higher than photosynthesis and the ecosystem becomes a net CO2 emitter. The photosynthesis line drops below zero at 26°C. C4 plants (mostly grasses) have their highest photosynthesis at 27°C, then drop and meet the respiration line at 30°C – from here on, the ecosystem is a net CO2 emitter. The line drops below zero at 34°C. Source: Duffy et al 2021. https://www.science.org/doi/full/10.1126/sciadv.aay1052
November 15, 2025 at 5:39 PM
anlomedad.bsky.social
What gets damaged and polluted in floods skips my mind when I see such images.
All of it incurs more GHG and raw material than was "planned" when we assume an average lifetime of 20years. It comes on top on all the new stuff we [thoughtlessly] build and produce.
aerial photo of flooded rural area with submerged houses, trees, fields. Added are pictograms of things to repair, replace or cleanup from toxins: furniture, pipes, electricity, buildings, factories and their spilled toxins, agricultural gear and toxins, roads, bridges, rail tracks
November 15, 2025 at 5:51 AM
anlomedad.bsky.social
I now think, sealevel in 2.73Ma stayed low because
a) this H-cloud dented the heliosphere and the loss of protection let Earth get more cosmic rays and clouds = big cooling and ice sheet growth.
b) the "series of supernovae" in the Orion nebula which created Barnard's Loop added yet more rays
🧵4
November 14, 2025 at 11:35 AM