Possible to start to tell a unified story: "Trump is personally too old, crazy, and confused to run things, so at any given time the question is which co-president is in charge. At first it was Musk, & we got the crazy chaotic DOGE era. Then Navarro: a trade war that crashed markets. Now Miller..."

New paper on "Geoeconomic Pressure" leverages LLMs to measure the effect of tariffs, export controls, and sanction on firms worldwide". We find a massive increase in 2025 Q1 in tariffs (thread follows)

This, from my colleague
Brent Neiman says it all.

Trump admin used the results from his paper to justify tariff rates. Except they used the completely wrong number.

Staggering 🤯

www.nytimes.com/2025/04/07/o...

1/19: Seems timely to share a paper which explores how people perceive & understand trade and trade policies. Which factors shape the support for different trade policies? Thread below with the key takeaways #EconTwitter 🧵, and full paper here: socialeconomicslab.org/understandin...

not meant to dig on anyone. but quotes like this are a reminder that a lot of people are two or three stages removed from having the slightest idea of what's going on. that's not an invitation to feel superior to other people but to see the value of political organizing, good media over bad etc.

The Democratic Party’s problems are not about being moderate or left. That’s a consultant and pundit red herring

The problems are in party organization, the culture of “it’s their turn” nominations, candidate recruitment, gerontocracy, inability to shape media topics, and coming off hella lame

One of my favorite descriptions/political put-downs from George Dangerfield's 'The Strange Death of Liberal England':

The great @jesseschreger.bsky.social is also here!

@antonio-coppola.bsky.social is here!

The GCAP Lab is now on Bsky.

@gcaproject.bsky.social

Follow it for research on capital flows, geoeconomics, the dollar, sanctions, offshore and tax havens finance.

We use this account to disseminate policy relevant updates, research papers, public datasets, events, and teaching materials

It’s hard to overstate how much people hate inflation—and the lasting scars this recent surge caused. People across the board, even Democrats, mainly blamed the government (see the figure👇). Check the summary 🧵for "Why do we dislike inflation?" here: x.com/S_Stantcheva...