and we have evidence from other countries (e.g. Tokyo) and from recent zoning reform in California that the overall of effect of allowing developers to build whatever they want is to lower rents, even if there are no affordable unit requirements. nothing either of you has said disputes that.

i’m not disputing that any of what you say occurs, and may occur frequently (NYC is huge after all). but ultimately the overall effect of all the things you are highlighting and the things i am highlighting is an empirical question.

the comparatively cheap units in new york tend to be in buildings that were built 50+, 100+ years ago. they were originally built for wealthy people. this process of older stock getting cheaper can happen quickly if there is lots on new building. look at tokyo after they had an affordability crisis.

everything else then gets cheaper. yes, wealthy have outbid lower income from many neighborhoods in new york. yes, that is a bad outcome we should avoid. but no, it’s not the case that if you only build market demanded units that only wealthy people will be able to live in an area.

if you make 80% of them for the wealthy, wealthy people from houston tx are not going to move to new york. the wealthy people who want to live in nyc already live there. so when you replace the old stock with new buildings with higher quality and more units, wealthy people will move in to them.

“We won't get to fill some of these sites again. If we make them 80% for the wealthy, it's a generational
decision that won't have an easy do over.” this is the only thing i’m pushing back against you about.

we know from other countries you can have low rents without affordable unit requirements. look at Tokyo! it’s not crazy!

this is just a statement about existing demographics. it’s a fact that most people in who live in new york are not wealthy. if more wealthy people wanted to live in new york, they could outbid existing tenants. what is crazy about this?

you’re right. let me rephrase: should we mandate developers to make 20% of units affordable? should we build public affordable cost housing?

personally i’d say no to the first, for all the reasons YIMBYs have. and yes to the second.

maybe affordable units should be part of the policy mix. but i don’t think the argument you are making for them makes sense

but there simply aren’t that many wealthy people who want to live in new york right? if you replaced 80% of the building in manhattan with new builds with more units, then some of those would have to have lower rents or they’d be empty. and at the same time brooklyn rents would 📉