@andrew-s-bowen.bsky.social
Analyst on Russian foreign policy, military, and intelligence. PhD in IR from @BostonCollege. Instructor @ElliottSchoolGW All opinions my own.
Reposted
“Come spring and summer 2026, Russia will almost certainly try to repeat and one-up its initial success in Dobropillia — and by then, will likely have more tactical tricks up its sleeve.” An assessment of #Ukraine frontline operations from @francisjfarrell
kyivindependent.com/analysis-cle...
kyivindependent.com/analysis-cle...
Analysis: Ukraine learns hard lessons from Russia's evolving tactics after clearing Dobropillia 'breakthrough'
After two and a half months of intense fighting, the red rabbit-ear-looking shape on the battlefield map of Donetsk Oblast is gone for good.
With the liberation of two more villages, Sukhetske and Ku...
kyivindependent.com
October 28, 2025 at 1:58 PM
“Come spring and summer 2026, Russia will almost certainly try to repeat and one-up its initial success in Dobropillia — and by then, will likely have more tactical tricks up its sleeve.” An assessment of #Ukraine frontline operations from @francisjfarrell
kyivindependent.com/analysis-cle...
kyivindependent.com/analysis-cle...
Reposted
Just the Russian GRU doing Russian GRU type stuff. Kudos to all agencies (USG and allies) for getting this out.
www.cisa.gov/news-events/...
www.cisa.gov/news-events/...
Russian GRU Targeting Western Logistics Entities and Technology Companies | CISA
Executives and network defenders should recognize the elevated threat of unit 26165 targeting, increase monitoring and threat hunting for known TTPs and IOCs, and posture network defenses with a presu...
www.cisa.gov
May 21, 2025 at 3:39 PM
Just the Russian GRU doing Russian GRU type stuff. Kudos to all agencies (USG and allies) for getting this out.
www.cisa.gov/news-events/...
www.cisa.gov/news-events/...
Reposted
Russian forces launched a major missile and drone attack on Kyiv early Thursday, killing at least nine people in the city, Ukrainian officials said, the deadliest attack on Ukraine's capital since last summer.
At Least 9 Dead in Russian Airstrikes on Kyiv, Ukrainian Officials Say
The overnight assault on Ukraine’s capital was the deadliest since last summer, and comes as the United States has threatened to walk away from the peace process.
www.nytimes.com
April 24, 2025 at 8:01 AM
Russian forces launched a major missile and drone attack on Kyiv early Thursday, killing at least nine people in the city, Ukrainian officials said, the deadliest attack on Ukraine's capital since last summer.
Very good overview on the continuing challenges Ukrainian Armed Forces face to reform their command structure, and how it hampers the war effort kyivindependent.com/as-ukraines-...
As Ukraine’s fate hangs in the balance, ‘Soviet’ command culture damages war effort
Last February, a Ukrainian company commander going by his callsign Veter was ordered to send his people to reinforce another unit’s position over the next few hours.
He was told that four National Gu...
kyivindependent.com
March 28, 2025 at 1:45 PM
Very good overview on the continuing challenges Ukrainian Armed Forces face to reform their command structure, and how it hampers the war effort kyivindependent.com/as-ukraines-...
Russia’s War Against Ukraine: Ceasefire Talks and Rekated Issues www.congress.gov/crs-product/...
www.congress.gov
March 26, 2025 at 7:57 PM
Russia’s War Against Ukraine: Ceasefire Talks and Rekated Issues www.congress.gov/crs-product/...
Reposted
Ukrainian troops have withdrawn from all but a sliver of land in Russia’s Kursk region, according to military analysts and soldiers, as their monthslong campaign to seize and occupy Russian territory appears to be nearing an end in the face of Moscow’s counterattacks.
Ukraine Retreats From Most of Russia’s Kursk Region
The daring campaign Ukraine launched last summer to seize and occupy Russian territory appears to be nearing an end.
www.nytimes.com
March 16, 2025 at 1:46 PM
Ukrainian troops have withdrawn from all but a sliver of land in Russia’s Kursk region, according to military analysts and soldiers, as their monthslong campaign to seize and occupy Russian territory appears to be nearing an end in the face of Moscow’s counterattacks.
Reposted
We don't have full clarity on whether this involves a partial or complete cutoff of intelligence, so it's best not to rush to conclusions.
I assume this will be most problematic for defensive operations, as it may limit Ukraine’s early warning of larger attacks.
www.ft.com/content/c58f...
1/3
I assume this will be most problematic for defensive operations, as it may limit Ukraine’s early warning of larger attacks.
www.ft.com/content/c58f...
1/3
US cuts off intelligence sharing with Ukraine
Fresh blow to embattled government in Kyiv as Trump administration shifts on conflict
www.ft.com
March 5, 2025 at 1:05 PM
We don't have full clarity on whether this involves a partial or complete cutoff of intelligence, so it's best not to rush to conclusions.
I assume this will be most problematic for defensive operations, as it may limit Ukraine’s early warning of larger attacks.
www.ft.com/content/c58f...
1/3
I assume this will be most problematic for defensive operations, as it may limit Ukraine’s early warning of larger attacks.
www.ft.com/content/c58f...
1/3
Reposted
Text in Kyiv: “Are you aged 18-24? Want to learn more about the top units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the terms of the contract, and how to earn 1,000,000 UAH? Contact the 1st recruitment center of the Ground Forces – we’ll tell you everything you need to know and help you with your choice!”
February 28, 2025 at 9:03 AM
Text in Kyiv: “Are you aged 18-24? Want to learn more about the top units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the terms of the contract, and how to earn 1,000,000 UAH? Contact the 1st recruitment center of the Ground Forces – we’ll tell you everything you need to know and help you with your choice!”
Can Europe Confront Vladimir Putin’s Russia on Its Own? www.economist.com/internationa...
Can Europe confront Vladimir Putin’s Russia on its own?
An independent army, air force and nuclear bomb would come at a high price
www.economist.com
February 27, 2025 at 3:14 PM
Can Europe Confront Vladimir Putin’s Russia on Its Own? www.economist.com/internationa...
Reposted
I wrote the latest—post-Merz— version of the “can Europe defend itself without America” piece, with reflections on military capability, money, enablers & nuclear weapons. An enduring topic, but with a new sense of urgency & relevance after the past weeks. www.economist.com/internationa...
Can Europe confront Vladimir Putin’s Russia on its own?
An independent army, air force and nuclear bomb would come at a high price
www.economist.com
February 25, 2025 at 8:33 PM
I wrote the latest—post-Merz— version of the “can Europe defend itself without America” piece, with reflections on military capability, money, enablers & nuclear weapons. An enduring topic, but with a new sense of urgency & relevance after the past weeks. www.economist.com/internationa...
Reposted
The EU is exploring more aggressively ways to seize Russia’s frozen central bank assets as a collateral to compensate for the destruction of Ukraine's energy infrastructure.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
EU Seeks Ways to Seize Part of Russia’s Frozen $280 Billion
The European Union is exploring more aggressively ways to seize Russia’s frozen central bank assets as the bloc scrambles to ensure financial and military support for Ukraine amid indications the US m...
www.bloomberg.com
February 22, 2025 at 7:39 PM
The EU is exploring more aggressively ways to seize Russia’s frozen central bank assets as a collateral to compensate for the destruction of Ukraine's energy infrastructure.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Reposted
Ukraine updates:
In Kursk, Russia has taken back full control of Sverdlikovo, one of the first positions to be captured by Ukraine at the start of the Kursk incursion. Meanwhile, Ukraine has retaken positions south of Russkoe Porechnoe.
In Kursk, Russia has taken back full control of Sverdlikovo, one of the first positions to be captured by Ukraine at the start of the Kursk incursion. Meanwhile, Ukraine has retaken positions south of Russkoe Porechnoe.
February 21, 2025 at 8:32 PM
Ukraine updates:
In Kursk, Russia has taken back full control of Sverdlikovo, one of the first positions to be captured by Ukraine at the start of the Kursk incursion. Meanwhile, Ukraine has retaken positions south of Russkoe Porechnoe.
In Kursk, Russia has taken back full control of Sverdlikovo, one of the first positions to be captured by Ukraine at the start of the Kursk incursion. Meanwhile, Ukraine has retaken positions south of Russkoe Porechnoe.
Reposted
MORE: Russian forces are poised to seize Toretsk in the coming days and a redeployment of elements of the EMD to reinforce the Russian force grouping in the Toretsk direction would indicate a new Russian priority effort to resume attacks in the direction of Kostyantynivka. isw.pub/UkrWar012625
January 27, 2025 at 1:50 PM
MORE: Russian forces are poised to seize Toretsk in the coming days and a redeployment of elements of the EMD to reinforce the Russian force grouping in the Toretsk direction would indicate a new Russian priority effort to resume attacks in the direction of Kostyantynivka. isw.pub/UkrWar012625
Reposted
BBC Russia and Mediazona believe their verified figures represent only about half of the actual death toll, suggesting the true number of Russian military deaths is likely between 138,500 and 200,000.
Verified Russian Deaths in Ukraine War Exceed 90K - The Moscow Times
The number of verified Russian troops killed in Ukraine has surpassed 90,000, nearly three years after the Kremlin launched its full-scale invasion, according to an independent tally by the BBC’s Russ...
www.themoscowtimes.com
January 24, 2025 at 9:23 AM
BBC Russia and Mediazona believe their verified figures represent only about half of the actual death toll, suggesting the true number of Russian military deaths is likely between 138,500 and 200,000.
Reposted
‘Ukrainian soldiers fighting in Kursk said the North Korean tactics were costly but effective.
“The Koreans are starting to push the front lines, targeting less defended areas and wearing out our troops that way,” said Oleksii, the platoon commander.’ www.nytimes.com/2025/01/22/w...
“The Koreans are starting to push the front lines, targeting less defended areas and wearing out our troops that way,” said Oleksii, the platoon commander.’ www.nytimes.com/2025/01/22/w...
Fighting Alongside Russia, North Koreans Wage Their Own War
Ukrainian forces described a different kind of enemy, fighting with unfamiliar tactics and little option to retreat.
www.nytimes.com
January 22, 2025 at 12:28 PM
‘Ukrainian soldiers fighting in Kursk said the North Korean tactics were costly but effective.
“The Koreans are starting to push the front lines, targeting less defended areas and wearing out our troops that way,” said Oleksii, the platoon commander.’ www.nytimes.com/2025/01/22/w...
“The Koreans are starting to push the front lines, targeting less defended areas and wearing out our troops that way,” said Oleksii, the platoon commander.’ www.nytimes.com/2025/01/22/w...
Reposted
Strikes on Russia have significantly impacted its army’s combat capabilities, says Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrsky. In just months, Russian artillery ammo consumption has nearly halved—from 40,000 rounds daily to much less.
www.rbc.ua/rus/news/sir...
www.rbc.ua/rus/news/sir...
Сирський пояснив, як удари по РФ вплинули на бойові спроможності її армії
Подробиці читайте на сайті
www.rbc.ua
January 19, 2025 at 6:43 PM
Strikes on Russia have significantly impacted its army’s combat capabilities, says Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrsky. In just months, Russian artillery ammo consumption has nearly halved—from 40,000 rounds daily to much less.
www.rbc.ua/rus/news/sir...
www.rbc.ua/rus/news/sir...
New CRS report for the 119th Congress: Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Agencies crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/...
crsreports.congress.gov
January 3, 2025 at 7:02 PM
New CRS report for the 119th Congress: Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Agencies crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/...
Reposted
Reuters identified five chemical companies, in which five Western-sanctioned billionaires hold stakes, that provided more than 75% of the key chemicals shipped by rail to some of Russia’s largest explosives factories from the start of the war until September 2024. www.reuters.com/world/europe...
Exclusive: The Russian billionaires whose chemical factories fuel Russia's war machine
Chemicals factories founded or owned by some of Russia's wealthiest men are supplying ingredients to plants that manufacture explosives used by Moscow's military during the war in Ukraine, an analysis of railway and financial data shows.
www.reuters.com
December 30, 2024 at 7:01 PM
Reuters identified five chemical companies, in which five Western-sanctioned billionaires hold stakes, that provided more than 75% of the key chemicals shipped by rail to some of Russia’s largest explosives factories from the start of the war until September 2024. www.reuters.com/world/europe...
A lot of the focus is on Ukraine’s recruiting issues, but Russia also faces its own challenges and shortages. It’s unclear how long both sides can sustain current rates and replace losses on the frontline. www.nytimes.com/2024/12/30/w...
Where Is Russia Finding New Soldiers? Wherever It Can.
From murder suspects to immigrants to a former Olympic gold medalist, Russia pressures those it thinks should fight in Ukraine.
www.nytimes.com
December 30, 2024 at 4:18 PM
A lot of the focus is on Ukraine’s recruiting issues, but Russia also faces its own challenges and shortages. It’s unclear how long both sides can sustain current rates and replace losses on the frontline. www.nytimes.com/2024/12/30/w...
Reposted
If Trump is worried about Chinese or Russian encroachment on Greenland, we could figure out who currently controls it and sign some agreement to cooperate with them on defense matters. Who knows, maybe other countries in the North Atlantic region might also want to join.
Anyway, worth looking into.
Anyway, worth looking into.
December 26, 2024 at 12:55 AM
If Trump is worried about Chinese or Russian encroachment on Greenland, we could figure out who currently controls it and sign some agreement to cooperate with them on defense matters. Who knows, maybe other countries in the North Atlantic region might also want to join.
Anyway, worth looking into.
Anyway, worth looking into.
New update for the 119th Congress. Russia’s War Against Ukraine: U.S. Policy and the Role of
Congress crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/...
Congress crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/...
crsreports.congress.gov
December 25, 2024 at 11:44 PM
New update for the 119th Congress. Russia’s War Against Ukraine: U.S. Policy and the Role of
Congress crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/...
Congress crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/...
Russia has suffered >11,000 vehicle losses www.wsj.com/world/russia...
Russia Taps Soviet-Era Stockpiles as Armored-Vehicle Supply Dwindles
Moscow has stepped up efforts to refurbish old equipment, including Soviet-era tanks used as props in films, after losing an estimated 11,000 armored combat vehicles in the Ukraine war.
www.wsj.com
December 21, 2024 at 1:44 PM
Russia has suffered >11,000 vehicle losses www.wsj.com/world/russia...
Reposted
The reality of Russian-occupied Ukraine today. "Deportations, arbitrary violence, including sexual violence, ill-treatment and torture are commonplace, not only in the detention centres but throughout the territory under Russian control." t.co/8TorxJpvFo
https://www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/russia-in-the-occupied-territories-of-ukraine
t.co
December 18, 2024 at 3:28 PM
The reality of Russian-occupied Ukraine today. "Deportations, arbitrary violence, including sexual violence, ill-treatment and torture are commonplace, not only in the detention centres but throughout the territory under Russian control." t.co/8TorxJpvFo
Good look at the FSB’s Counterintelligence Service, or First Service (SKR) and its operations directorate (DKRO). It is an extremely powerful service and gained more importance since the start of Russia’s war in Ukraine www.wsj.com/world/russia...
Tracking Putin’s Most Feared Secret Agency—From Inside a Russian Prison and Beyond
The spy unit that arrested a Wall Street Journal reporter is leading the biggest campaign of internal repression since the Stalin era.
www.wsj.com
December 13, 2024 at 3:41 PM
Good look at the FSB’s Counterintelligence Service, or First Service (SKR) and its operations directorate (DKRO). It is an extremely powerful service and gained more importance since the start of Russia’s war in Ukraine www.wsj.com/world/russia...