Amanda Jean Stevenson
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amandajean.bsky.social
Amanda Jean Stevenson
@amandajean.bsky.social
5.1K followers 1.5K following 2.4K posts
Sociologist and demographer. Never repping coauthors or institutions or anything like that.
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amandajean.bsky.social
Here’s a cool fungus
Photo of log cut on diagonal with very cool purple and white fungus on cut. Yellow leaves and lots of socks in background. Nice fungus.
November 13, 2025 at 3:50 AM
amandajean.bsky.social
How automated control and surveillance endangers and harms us all from @alexhanna.bsky.social and colleagues at @dairinstitute.bsky.social
drive.google.com/file/d/1yBxy...
Light yellow background with black text reading: "Second, the use of cameras and other surveillance technologies must be highly constrained within vans. The use of these technologies is making the job–and by extension, our roads–more dangerous, as drivers are many times preoccupied with avoiding infractions over making the necessary split second decisions and maneuvers that actually maintain a safe environment. These tools operate as a vector for driver punishment and surveillance, not safety. Furthermore, none of the technology should be required or allowed on a driver’s personal phone, which gives Amazon and other third party companies the ability to track and collect data from them while on and off duty."
October 29, 2025 at 3:08 PM
amandajean.bsky.social
The only good ice.
photo of many pellets of nugget ice.
October 28, 2025 at 10:06 PM
amandajean.bsky.social
archive.org/details/ican...
"I used to say to our audiences: "It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!"
October 27, 2025 at 10:07 PM
amandajean.bsky.social
He's all "legalizing contraception and abortion and ending employment discrimination against women will probably be enough for zero population growth" and then he's like, "but that will suck because you can't reverse that stuff." 2/3
Of course, the solution I have attributed to the Chicago school of economics is an exercise in science fiction. It is probably more un- realistic politically than technologically. I describe it only to charac- terize, even if in an unrealistic fashion, features that one would like to find in a program for regulating fertility. There are more feasible measures that might be implemented, such as reducing the remaining discriminatory rules and attitudes about the employment of women, fur- ther equalizing educational opportunities at both the undergraduate and the professional level, and in general opening further career opportuni- ties as an attractive alternative to motherhood. A liberalization of laws on abortion would be a useful supplement to the planned parenthood pro- gram outlined earlier. A set of measures of this sort does not add up, of course, to a tidy and logical but unrealistic Chicago economists' program. Perhaps the greatest weakness of such measures is that their effect on fertilityis uncertain and occurs after a substantiallag in time. Also, the measures are irreversible - it would hardly be feasible to increase discrimination against women if the birth rate fell too low. Fortunately, as was stated in the first part of these remarks, I do not think that we need to rush into a program of special inducements for lower family-size targets. After all, the gross reproduction rate in 1967 was only about 1. 30, some 28per cent below its peak in 1957. The birth rate of January 1968, moreover, shows an especially sharp addi- tional drop, even after seasonal adjustment. It is possible that by the time a feasible program is ready for formulation in legislative pro- posals, we shall be seeking ways of increasing fertility in order to avoid a declining population.
October 25, 2025 at 3:04 AM
amandajean.bsky.social
I've been trying to understand the pronatalist population panic by reading about the antinatalist population panic in the 60s and 70s, which led me to Ansley Coale's 1968 PAA presidential address. It's wild.
Old typesetting of an academic article: CURRENT ITEMS. SHOULD THE UNITED STATES START A CAMPAIGN FOR FEWER BIRTHS?
October 25, 2025 at 2:59 AM
amandajean.bsky.social
Hey pronatalists, did you know your predecessor in population panic said 1.5 billion humans (18% of our current population) was a good target?
Yellowing paper back pages of THE POPULATION BOMB with the text: The plan is to be initiated in 1985, when it is calculated that the major die-back will be over, using famine rehef distribution stations as bases for both faciUties and personnel. The plan will eventually cover the entire world and is programed with a goal of a total world popu- lation of two billion in 2025, and 1.5 biUion in 2100. 79 POPULATION BOMB This scenario has considerably more appeal than the others, even though it presumes the death by starvation of perhaps as many as half a billion people, one-fifth of the world's popula- tion. Unfortunately, it also involves a maturity of outlook and behavior in the United States that seems unlikely to develop in the near future. I will leave you to decide which scenario is more realistic, and I challenge you to create one more optimistic than the last. (I won't accept one that starts, "In early 1972 the first monster space ships from a planet of the star Alpha Centauri arrive bearing CARE packages. . .")
October 23, 2025 at 12:36 PM
amandajean.bsky.social
The U.S. has a long history of collectives. For example, the Washington State institution of Public Utility Districts, which make power much, much cheaper - especially in rural areas. www.wpuda.org/assets/image...
An old-timey painting of a car that looks like maybe a Model T with two men in suits in front of it. There are signs on the car saying "COAL OIL LAMPS" and "FARMERS UNITE HELP US HELP OURSELVES VOTE FOR INITIATIVE 1"
October 20, 2025 at 8:21 PM
amandajean.bsky.social
I think that this would require us to examine why we accepted the deal that OPA and the antinatalists offered. One of the most useful analyses of this I've read is by @lsenderowicz.bsky.social and Rishita Nandagiri. It has this very helpful diagram.
Venn diagram depicting relationships between reproductive rights and anti-choice and population/development actors. My key takeaway is that the intersection between repro rights and the pop and dev folks is deeply inadequate and not at all liberatory
October 16, 2025 at 4:59 PM
amandajean.bsky.social
Check it out! Population aging was scary in 1950! But they had STYLE.
population pyramids for 1900 and 1940 - the 1940 pyramid was narrower on the bottom, prompting terror regarding population aging. Which SPOILER didn't come to pass, did it?
October 2, 2025 at 5:17 PM
amandajean.bsky.social
Sharing because I love you all.
The coolest population pyramid of all time. For the US in 1940. Check out the age distribution - narrow on the bottom because population aging was coming for us all (shudder). But the cool thing is that the bars are rows of figures and the figures CHANGE AS THEY AGE. Babies on the bottom, old people using canes on the top. So cool. Fight the fascism. <3 Amanda
October 2, 2025 at 5:13 PM
amandajean.bsky.social
If they 100x the Title X program it wouldn't pay for this. What on earth.
Text: Fertility HHS will launch a MAHA education campaign to improve health and fertility in women and men looking to start a family. This will influence adolescent health through early adoption of lifestyles that help avoid the development of root cause issues that impact adult fertility in the 20s, 30s, and 40s. Initiatives will include: • The HHS Root Causes of Infertility Award Challenge Competition, a national call to action to address the root causes of infertility and improve maternal and infant health outcomes. This initiative seeks to identify new and existing solutions to prevent, diagnose, and treat root causes of infertility, including chronic reproductive health conditions, and provide answers to families, improve health outcomes, and ensure a brighter future for parents and infants across the U.S. • HHS will develop a partnership to create an Infertility Training Center to serve and train Title X clinics to identify, treat, and refer for the underlying causes of infertility, such as chronic reproductive health conditions.
September 9, 2025 at 10:54 PM
amandajean.bsky.social
Look at this beautiful plot from Taylor (1961)
basically incomprehensible plot of many squares in a grid with scattered points and regression lines for the points that appear to be in lines
September 6, 2025 at 7:21 PM
amandajean.bsky.social
Or it can get even more wild if you drilldown to cities, like College Station, TX and Scottsdale, AZ
College station Texas age pyramid wildly disproportionately 18-23 year olds. Scottsdale Arizona pyramid pretty tall and narrow with a bulge 50-790 or so and a narrow base.
September 4, 2025 at 5:19 PM
amandajean.bsky.social
You can freak yourself out by looking at small places that have extreme age structures. Like, Maine or Utah.
population pyramids for Utah and Maine in 2020. Utah looks like a v. tall dollop of whipped cream or merengue, while Maine looks like the quill of a fountain pen with a particularly narrow base.
September 4, 2025 at 5:16 PM
amandajean.bsky.social
This is just not a terribly skewed population age structure and pronatalists are bananas. www.census.gov/library/stor...
Three population pyramids for the US. From 2000, 2010, and 2020. The 2000 pyramid has a distinct bulge for the baby boomers, who were then 35-45 or so. There's a distinct narrowing at the under five age group. That boomer bulge moves higher and the narrowing at the bottom attenuates in 2010. In 2020 the bulge moves higher still and a new narrowing at the bottom emerges, but things are smoother in general. And in 2020, things are much more balanced by age and sex!
September 4, 2025 at 3:29 PM
amandajean.bsky.social
And can we quit with the empty swings, empty classrooms, empty cribs, etc? This is not what is happening and it's irresponsible to make it look like it is. It's like the disembodied pregnant 35 week bellies in stories about abortion.
A photo of an empty classroom, looking at a blank blackboard and a TV that's off. The lights are off but the window is letting in diffuse light. Like you came in on the weekend or something.
August 20, 2025 at 8:55 PM
amandajean.bsky.social
This projection was "pretty good" because it was wrong in ways that cancelled each other out: they assumed future fertility would be higher than it was and that far fewer people would move to the US than actually did.
A graph of four population projections from 1970 to 2020 in black and a red line of the actual US population. The actual population stays pretty much in the middle of the projected cases.
August 20, 2025 at 4:36 PM
amandajean.bsky.social
Working this, I found this I looked at lots of old projections and one thing I learned is that when they're right it's often because they're wrong in ways that cancel each other out. For example these projections from 1972 are pretty good predictions, BUT
Graph of four population projections from 1972 through 2020 in black lines and a red line that's what actually happened. Reality is pretty straight down the middle of the projections.
August 20, 2025 at 4:36 PM
amandajean.bsky.social
The Census Bureau used to say "embracing" to mean "what you can find inside this report" and (while I don't recommend reading this or any old census documents unless you really have to, for so many reasons) I love that.
An image of old-ass type, kinda faded. Big, at the top: SEVENTH CENSUS Tiny, new line: OF THE Moderate size, new line: UNITED STATES: (editorializing here, but love the colon) Moderate size, new line: 1850. (love the period... what?) Tiny, new paragraph-y thing: EMBRACING A STATISTICAL VIEW OF EACH OF THE STATES AND TERRITORIES, ARRANGED BY COUNTIES, TOWNS, ETC., UNDER THE FOLLOWING DIVISIONS: (then a list of types of tables and figures and stuff, too small to read if you're old like me) Then big again, new line: AN APPENDIX, (you guys, it's a comma - why!?) Very Tiny, new line: EMBRACING New line, pretty small: NOTES UPON THE TABLES OF EACH OF THE STATES, ETC.
August 19, 2025 at 4:12 AM
amandajean.bsky.social
Yo, literally anything can be a reason for a personal, private decision. WTF.
A notification that the podcast “consider this from npr” has an episode “is climate change a reason not to have kids?”
August 4, 2025 at 2:55 AM
amandajean.bsky.social
Such a good example. In her infinite generosity, Jane Menken uses Michael Teitelbaum's "Fertility Effects of the Abolition of Legal Abortion in Romania," Population Studies 1972 to make this point.
July 21, 2025 at 4:57 PM
amandajean.bsky.social
We're at the pop quiz stage in this reeducation camp designed to generate panic over birth rate decline.
Screen cap of Washington Post quiz/article "Are we facing population collapse?" with a photo of an empty stroller at Target.
July 21, 2025 at 3:55 PM
amandajean.bsky.social
Never should have changed.
Wikipedia screen capture from NARAL page text is “History edit The precursor to NARAL was the Association to Repeal Abortion Laws (ARAL).[7] ARAL was an expansion of the "Army of Three" which was made up of abortion rights activists Pat Maginnis, Rowena Gurner, and financial investor Lana Phelan. The Army of Three organized and distributed referral lists of people performing illegal abortions and held classes on do-it-yourself abortions in California.[8]” url is:https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reproductive_Freedom_for_All
July 17, 2025 at 4:44 AM
amandajean.bsky.social
The Society of Family Planning #wecount project estimates how many abortions are provided and whether via in-person of Telehealth:
societyfp.org/research/wec...
graph of telehealth abortion provision by quarter in US, increases over Q2 2022 - Q4 2024 to 25%
June 25, 2025 at 6:36 PM