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adamposen.bsky.social
Adam Posen
@adamposen.bsky.social
15K followers 280 following 260 posts
President, PIIE. Globalist. Former central banker. Political economy with a policy purpose. Writes on macroeconomic policy, G7/China relations, globalization, and economies of US, UK, Germany, Japan, and PRC.
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adamposen.bsky.social
New podcast: me reflecting on US economic policies since the election, what we foresaw, what surprised, what the impact has been and will be.

Includes a warning about the seeds being sown for the next financial crisis by Trump's crypto and Fed policy combo.

podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/a...
Adam Posen on the economy one year after the US election (Episode 11)
Podcast Episode · PIIE Insider LIVE · 11/07/2025 · 32m
podcasts.apple.com
November 8, 2025 at 4:25 PM
Reposted by Adam Posen
piie.com
NOVEMBER 7: It's been a year this week since the US presidential election...& one year of PIIE Insider LIVE!
@adamposen.bsky.social is coming back onto the podcast to discuss what's changed in the US & global economy.
Tune in live or subscribe wherever you get podcasts: www.piie.com/events/2025/...
Adam Posen on the economy one year after the US election
It's been one year since the 2024 US presidential election—and since the launch of PIIE Insider LIVE. Anjali V. Bhatt, PIIE communications manager and research fellow welcomes back Adam Posen, PIIE pr...
www.piie.com
November 5, 2025 at 8:13 PM
adamposen.bsky.social
Congress's role in the trade war: A bipartisan conversation with Senators Kaine and Paul
Live Today 5:45pm ET @piie.com
www.piie.com/events/2025/...
Congress's role in the trade war: A bipartisan conversation with Senators Kaine and Paul
The Peterson Institute for International Economics hosts a special event featuring Senators Tim Kaine (D-VA) and Rand Paul (R-KY) who discuss the complex legal, political, and constitutional issues fa...
www.piie.com
October 29, 2025 at 6:51 PM
adamposen.bsky.social
Yes, inflation from tariffs is happening.
Will inflation expectations stay low? Mebbe not
www.theguardian.com/business/202...
75% of Americans report soaring prices as Trump claims inflation ‘over’
Exclusive poll: Inflation remains a concern despite president’s pledge to reduce prices on ‘day one’
www.theguardian.com
October 16, 2025 at 1:43 PM
adamposen.bsky.social
Live webcast today 10:45 ET Surveying the new economic geography with @AdamPosen and @joshualipsky
Live at @IMFNews
Watch here!
www.youtube.com/live/kNiZYVd... via @YouTube
Surveying the new economic geography with Peterson Institute's Adam Posen
YouTube video by AtlanticCouncil
www.youtube.com
October 15, 2025 at 1:48 PM
Reposted by Adam Posen
ben-beachy.bsky.social
If you'd like a break from doomerism, @mdebolle.com & I had a good time recording this new @piie.com podcast to explore potential paths forward for clean energy industrial policy.

We touched on IRA lessons learned, abundance, bottom-up policy design, & yes...bagels.
‎
www.piie.com/experts/podc...
Can climate efforts create jobs? (Episode 20)
Is it possible to pursue climate efforts, create jobs, and achieve social justice at the same time? That was the challenge that the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 was designed to meet. Ben Beachy (Gl...
www.piie.com
October 8, 2025 at 3:46 PM
Reposted by Adam Posen
piie.com
Robust investment in the US in AI-related categories has more than compensated for softer investment elsewhere.

Find these charts & so many more, & watch the presentation here: www.piie.com/events/2025/...
US business investment continues to grow, but only because of AI-related categories AI expectations have driven up the stock market
October 9, 2025 at 5:31 PM
Reposted by Adam Posen
piie.com
Rather than worrying about the China Shock 2.0 in developed economies, we should be much more worried about the China Shock 1.0 in low- & middle-income countries, Arvind Subramanian says.

Find slides & watch the Global Economic Prospects event here: www.piie.com/events/2025/...
The New China Shock is on Low and Middle Income Countries (LMICs) High and rising imports of low-skilled products from China Magnitude and pace of China shock much greater than for rich countries China Shock 2.0 Exaggerated Implication: now impact for rich countries is mostly from Chinese high skilled esports Magnitude and pace of China Shock 2.0 significantly smaller than China Shock 1.0 China SHock 2.0 no longer macro-economic but sectoral/technological/security
October 9, 2025 at 5:38 PM
Reposted by Adam Posen
adamposen.bsky.social
Global growth holds up despite policy headwinds and rising risks - New blog by Karen Dynan
Latest global economic propsects from @piie.com

www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
Global growth holds up despite policy headwinds and rising risks
The global economy is growing more strongly than expected this year, despite rising trade tensions and high uncertainty around US economic policy. Optimism about artificial intelligence (AI), particul...
www.piie.com
October 9, 2025 at 8:12 PM
Reposted by Adam Posen
nellhenderson.bsky.social
Must see TV: PIIE’s Adam S. Posen on why inflation impact from tariffs and deportations has been lagged www.piie.com/newsroom/sho...
Adam S. Posen on why inflation impact from tariffs and deportations has been lagged
Adam S. Posen explains at the Peterson Institute for International Economics Global Economic Prospects Fall 2025 event the effects of US policies like tariffs and deportations on inflation, the labor ...
www.piie.com
October 10, 2025 at 11:47 AM
Reposted by Adam Posen
chadpbown.com
US-China tariffs: where do they currently stand?

- US average tariff on imports from China: 57.6%
- China average tariff on imports from US: 32.6%

Note: We have been updating this chart since September 2019
US-China Trade War Tariffs: An Up-to-Date Chart
Average US tariffs on Chinese exports now stand at 57.6 percent and cover 100 percent of all goods. China's average tariffs on US exports are at 32.6 percent and cover 100 percent of all goods. US tar...
www.piie.com
October 11, 2025 at 3:38 PM
Reposted by Adam Posen
piie.com
Our Fall 2025 Global Economic Prospects shows that real global GDP is projected to rise 3.1% in 2025 & 2.9% in 2026. #PIIECharts
Most large, advanced economies face slower GDP growth next year, while China and India withstand tariff drag
October 14, 2025 at 3:25 PM
Reposted by Adam Posen
piie.com
🍂 It's fall meetings szn 🍂
We hope you can join us this week & next! Find all event pages, info, & registration here: www.piie.com/event-series...
PIIE Fall Meetings Coming up in October 2025 | Watching at piie.com/events -- October 8 | 1:00 PM EDT China’s economic outlook: Challenges and opportunities Martin Chorzempa (PIIE), Tianlei Huang (PIIE), Mary E. Lovely (PIIE), Yeling Tan (PIIE) -- October 9 | 1:00 PM EDT Global Economic Prospects: Fall 2025 Karen Dynan (PIIE), Arvind Subramanian (PIIE), Adam S. Posen (PIIE) -- October 14 | 3:00 PM EDT PIIE Insider LIVE: Maurice Obstfeld on trade and the international financial system Anjali V. Bhatt (PIIE), Maurice Obstfeld (PIIE) -- October 15 | 9:00 AM EDT Trade Winds: How is the world adjusting to a new trading landscape? Cecilia Malmström (PIIE), Mari Elka Pangestu (National Economic Council; PIIE), Hector Torres (Centre for International Governance Innovation) -- October 16 9:00 AM EDT The changing dollar regime: An update Joseph E. Gagnon (PIIE), Maurice Obstfeld (PIIE), Moritz Schularick (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), Adam S. Posen (PIIE) 1:30 PM EDT Canada’s economic outlook and global trade: A conversation with Governor Tiff Macklem Tiff Macklem (Bank of Canada), Adam S. Posen (PIIE) -- October 17 | 1:00 PM EDT Europe in a changing international monetary system Agnès Bénassy-Quéré (Banque de France), Jacob Funk Kirkegaard (PIIE), Klaas Knot (De Nederlandsche Bank; Financial Stability Board), Signe Krogstrup (Danmarks Nationalbank), Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland), Ángel Ubide (Citadel LLC)
October 6, 2025 at 1:50 PM
adamposen.bsky.social
New podcast @piie.com

Maurice Obstfeld on trade and the international financial system - discussing everything as only he can

With @anjali.v.bhatt #piieinsider

www.piie.com/events/2025/...
Maurice Obstfeld on trade and the international financial system
Maurice Obstfeld, PIIE C. Fred Bergsten senior fellow, joins Anjali V. Bhatt, PIIE communications manager and research fellow, for a live, virtual conversation about tariffs in the US as fiscal policy...
www.piie.com
October 15, 2025 at 1:34 PM
Reposted by Adam Posen
70sbachchan.bsky.social
In a large-scale trade war with China, the U.S. economy will suffer more than the Chinese economy, argued
@adamposen.bsky.social
:“The Trump administration may think it’s acting tough,but it’s in fact putting the US economy at the mercy of Chinese escalation"
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
Trade Wars Are Easy to Lose
Beijing has escalation dominance in the U.S.-Chinese tariff fight.
www.foreignaffairs.com
October 10, 2025 at 6:02 PM
adamposen.bsky.social
October 10, 2025 at 4:20 PM
Reposted by Adam Posen
piie.com
WATCH: @adamposen.bsky.social explains why the substantial inflationary impact from tariffs & deportations has been lagged but is coming.
Adam S. Posen on why inflation impact from tariffs and deportations has been lagged
YouTube video by Peterson Institute for International Economics
www.youtube.com
October 10, 2025 at 3:00 PM
Reposted by Adam Posen
raging-dee.bsky.social
This was short and informative. Definitely worth a listen.
October 10, 2025 at 3:58 PM
adamposen.bsky.social
Trump and Xi are both posturing ahead of their upcoming summit, but PRC/Xi is escalating - as noted by @rushdoshi.bsky.social and Lingling Wei this is because they think (rightly) Trump will back off.
*Taps the sign* (I warned y'all @foreignaffairs.com )
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
Trade Wars Are Easy to Lose
Beijing has escalation dominance in the U.S.-Chinese tariff fight.
www.foreignaffairs.com
October 10, 2025 at 3:07 PM
Reposted by Adam Posen
trending-stocks.bsky.social
Tariffs, deportations: inflation’s delayed hit. #econsky
October 10, 2025 at 1:02 PM
adamposen.bsky.social
New video! Why the substantial inflationary impact from tariffs and deportations has been lagged but is coming
A real world based take on the US economic forecast
Me excerpted from @piie.com Global Economic Prospects
www.piie.com/newsroom/sho...
Adam S. Posen on why inflation impact from tariffs and deportations has been lagged
Adam S. Posen explains at the Peterson Institute for International Economics Global Economic Prospects Fall 2025 event the effects of US policies like tariffs and deportations on inflation, the labor ...
www.piie.com
October 10, 2025 at 12:47 PM
adamposen.bsky.social
New video! Why the substantial inflationary impact from tariffs and deportations has been lagged but is coming
A real world based take on the US economic forecast
Me excerpted from @piie.com Global Economic Prospects
www.piie.com/newsroom/sho...
Adam S. Posen on why inflation impact from tariffs and deportations has been lagged
Adam S. Posen explains at the Peterson Institute for International Economics Global Economic Prospects Fall 2025 event the effects of US policies like tariffs and deportations on inflation, the labor ...
www.piie.com
October 10, 2025 at 12:21 PM
Reposted by Adam Posen
piie.com
@adamposen.bsky.social on gold buyers:
Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email licensing@ft.com to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found at https://www.ft.com/tour. https://www.ft.com/content/4eefc53c-de68-4495-b729-b028916dd645 Adam Posen of the Peterson Institute agrees that gold buyers’ are not primarily motivated by inflation:  Gold prices are being driven primarily by retail investors, enemy regimes (Russia and Iran), and some speculators. It is primarily driven by investors who fundamentally distrust the US government and fiat money. Not just inflation. In fact, gold’s value (like crypto) to these people is in large part due to being uncorrelated with US macro and government (so not US inflation and the Fed).
October 9, 2025 at 1:17 PM
Reposted by Adam Posen
piie.com
Inflation is going to be higher in the US in the news few years than most are forecasting, @adamposen.bsky.social says.

Find slides & watch the Global Economic Prospects event here: www.piie.com/events/2025/...
Why the inflation impact of deportation has been lagged If 1 million+ migrants have left, how has production stayed up? No increase in native or legal employment in the sectors which are known to be heavy users of migrant labor What is going on? McKibbin, Noland, and Hogan (2024) says impact should be big and stagflationary Substitution of K or L not there in the data Mismeasurement of net migrant outflows? Over-counting/claims of total deported? Or workers and families take time to make up their minds on a wrenching decision Not sure that ICE really will come for them Head underground but keep working Employers do not have to pay more or invest – in fact can end up paying less Difficult to decide when to leave Actual financial conditions are more relevant than FFR Inflation expectations are less well anchored Recent past experience of higher inflation has a lasting impact (Gagnon and Kamin 2025) Staggered salient price hikes are coming Think like eggs under Biden Beef, certain fruit and veg, musical instruments, toys… De minimis imported goods Some pharmaceuticals potentially Energy depending upon the impact of AI demand Durable goods (autos, furniture, construction inputs), though, are less salient for inflation perceptions
October 9, 2025 at 5:45 PM
adamposen.bsky.social
Global growth holds up despite policy headwinds and rising risks - New blog by Karen Dynan
Latest global economic propsects from @piie.com

www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
Global growth holds up despite policy headwinds and rising risks
The global economy is growing more strongly than expected this year, despite rising trade tensions and high uncertainty around US economic policy. Optimism about artificial intelligence (AI), particul...
www.piie.com
October 9, 2025 at 8:12 PM