Out tomorrow in @foreignaffairs.com my new article, your guide to the new global economic geography.
The implications go far beyond rebalancing trade surpluses and will last far longer than any deals.

Excited to speaking at the @ftweekend Festival US in DC on Saturday 10 May. Come see us in person or watch on the livestream - LOTS more than those of us on economics panel at 2pm ET - see the full program usftweekendfestival.live.ft.com/home

So, neither personnel changes or trade deals nor tariff exemptions nor reinstating federal civil servants will change the underlying pattern. Like Brexit, this is a shift up in uncertainty, not a transitory phase. Only reassertion of credible checks on POTUS will help [4/4]

We would never wish for any government to pursue self-destructive policies to prove a point, joking aside.
But this sure as heck is turning into a teachable moment.
@kclausing.bsky.social @brendanduke.bsky.social @piie.com

The outsize chilling of investment and hiring - when the Trump Administration has implemented only a fraction so far of the anti-trade, anti-migrant agenda promised - attributed by the investors and workers to uncertainty seems to bear this out.
It's not too late for them to change strategy (4/4)

Attempts to weaponize uncertainty might work in foreign policy when dealing state to state. But in economic policy making, with billions of decentralized decision-makers and many alternatives, raising uncertainty is likely to backfire and just make everone worse off (3/n)

How is that warning working out so far? Some suggested that I had lost perspective and exaggerated the likely damage. I just stuck with mainstream economics, including the harms of raising uncertainty and the need to deliver on some threats to be credible (2/4)

In October, I warned about "The True Dangers of Trump's Economic Plans" @foreignaffairs.com
The madman strategy would be inherently destructive to economic outcomes, even if 'only' a negotiating ploy, and that the agenda would cause a negative supply shock to the US economy (1/4)

As welcome as Taylor's version is, please read Linda Ronstadt's statement now

I did say that there is no reason for US investors to know about the UK (implied to know more than about any other economy, but they tweeted out of context). I am proud to have served the UK and lived there, so note what I also said please:

There are differences between the Harris and Trump platforms on economic policy, especially on migration. They all point to higher inflation under a Trump Administration in 2025. Markets are not pricing in this risk. The Fed should not wait to warn. My latest @financialtimes.com
on.ft.com/3MkRHfS

Very well said by @delong.bsky.social
The coming negative supply shock for the US if Trump wins given deportations and tariffs planned
braddelong.substack.com?utm_source=n...

Posen says election results will upend Fed's easing plans by Greg Robb on MarketWatch
www.marketwatch.com/livecoverage...

Just some of the amazing female leaders speaking about the global economy at #NextStep2023 Conference hosted by PIIE and LKY School in Singapore

Talked with @alexwulfers.bsky.social about the relative strengths and weaknesses of the Chinese and German economies, and a world going crazy with industrial subsidies In @faznet.bsky.social Sonntagzeitiung (paywall, schade)