@aaronshem.bsky.social
UofM IO&E, Optimization, Risk Mgt, Financial Eng/Engineering Economy, MBA, Sailor, Biker, Horse Riding, Oil painting, Acro, Aerial (Lift people, not weights.)
1/🧵
Arctic ice is likely thickening & will last more into summer. The ice extent may be lower in early spring, but will stay higher in late spring & summer depending on winds. If winds are low in spring & summer (likely if QBO west asserts & stabilizes polar vortex), sea ice will persist into fall…
Arctic ice is likely thickening & will last more into summer. The ice extent may be lower in early spring, but will stay higher in late spring & summer depending on winds. If winds are low in spring & summer (likely if QBO west asserts & stabilizes polar vortex), sea ice will persist into fall…
February 18, 2025 at 12:57 PM
6/🧵
Right now, I’m guessing high winds breaking & pushing sea ice. Lots of precipitation releasing latent heat. More sea surface losing heat, but where there’s ice it is thickening. The thicker ice will last more into summer. The latent heat release will radiate away in the dry winter air.
Right now, I’m guessing high winds breaking & pushing sea ice. Lots of precipitation releasing latent heat. More sea surface losing heat, but where there’s ice it is thickening. The thicker ice will last more into summer. The latent heat release will radiate away in the dry winter air.
February 18, 2025 at 12:53 PM
6/🧵
Right now, I’m guessing high winds breaking & pushing sea ice. Lots of precipitation releasing latent heat. More sea surface losing heat, but where there’s ice it is thickening. The thicker ice will last more into summer. The latent heat release will radiate away in the dry winter air.
Right now, I’m guessing high winds breaking & pushing sea ice. Lots of precipitation releasing latent heat. More sea surface losing heat, but where there’s ice it is thickening. The thicker ice will last more into summer. The latent heat release will radiate away in the dry winter air.
5/🧵
This makes Gavin’s prediction look pretty solid. bsky.app/profile/clim...
This makes Gavin’s prediction look pretty solid. bsky.app/profile/clim...
End of the year, but before we start with the summaries of 2024, what does 2025 look like?
These predictions are based on the long term trend plus an anomaly based on predicted ENSO for the DJ period.
These predictions are based on the long term trend plus an anomaly based on predicted ENSO for the DJ period.
February 18, 2025 at 12:53 PM
5/🧵
This makes Gavin’s prediction look pretty solid. bsky.app/profile/clim...
This makes Gavin’s prediction look pretty solid. bsky.app/profile/clim...
4/🧵
This could destabilize the PV & cause continued high temperatures anomalies everywhere. That would mean another hot year, but also a lot of heat loss. x.com/PaulRoundy1/...
This could destabilize the PV & cause continued high temperatures anomalies everywhere. That would mean another hot year, but also a lot of heat loss. x.com/PaulRoundy1/...
x.com
x.com
February 18, 2025 at 12:27 PM
4/🧵
This could destabilize the PV & cause continued high temperatures anomalies everywhere. That would mean another hot year, but also a lot of heat loss. x.com/PaulRoundy1/...
This could destabilize the PV & cause continued high temperatures anomalies everywhere. That would mean another hot year, but also a lot of heat loss. x.com/PaulRoundy1/...
3/🧵
we may see slightly elevated arctic temperatures as the rest of the world cools. However, Paul Roundy notes recent westerly winds are releasing heat that’s been storing up in the indian ocean for decades & could trigger el nino this summer…
we may see slightly elevated arctic temperatures as the rest of the world cools. However, Paul Roundy notes recent westerly winds are releasing heat that’s been storing up in the indian ocean for decades & could trigger el nino this summer…
February 18, 2025 at 12:27 PM
3/🧵
we may see slightly elevated arctic temperatures as the rest of the world cools. However, Paul Roundy notes recent westerly winds are releasing heat that’s been storing up in the indian ocean for decades & could trigger el nino this summer…
we may see slightly elevated arctic temperatures as the rest of the world cools. However, Paul Roundy notes recent westerly winds are releasing heat that’s been storing up in the indian ocean for decades & could trigger el nino this summer…
2/🧵
There will be less heat loss by ocean & slightly less SW absorption in JJA, keeping arctic atmospheric temperatures low if that’s the case. Otherwise latent heat change from additional ice melt will keep temps relatively low as more heat flows into the arctic, if that’s the case…
There will be less heat loss by ocean & slightly less SW absorption in JJA, keeping arctic atmospheric temperatures low if that’s the case. Otherwise latent heat change from additional ice melt will keep temps relatively low as more heat flows into the arctic, if that’s the case…
February 18, 2025 at 12:27 PM
2/🧵
There will be less heat loss by ocean & slightly less SW absorption in JJA, keeping arctic atmospheric temperatures low if that’s the case. Otherwise latent heat change from additional ice melt will keep temps relatively low as more heat flows into the arctic, if that’s the case…
There will be less heat loss by ocean & slightly less SW absorption in JJA, keeping arctic atmospheric temperatures low if that’s the case. Otherwise latent heat change from additional ice melt will keep temps relatively low as more heat flows into the arctic, if that’s the case…
They are likely to have people who’ve looked at the best cases for both sides.
February 7, 2025 at 1:13 PM
They are likely to have people who’ve looked at the best cases for both sides.
It will weaken because of natural variability. It has little to do with albedo or ice feedback. The angle of incidence is high as you get more north, so it doesn’t affect albedo much. Clouds also make ice reduction mostly irrelevant. It will continue to warm heat transport from the SH will increase.
February 4, 2025 at 2:48 AM
It will weaken because of natural variability. It has little to do with albedo or ice feedback. The angle of incidence is high as you get more north, so it doesn’t affect albedo much. Clouds also make ice reduction mostly irrelevant. It will continue to warm heat transport from the SH will increase.
Given the ground hog tradition has been mostly about the northeast and maybe midwest, it’s looking iffy.
February 2, 2025 at 1:27 PM
Given the ground hog tradition has been mostly about the northeast and maybe midwest, it’s looking iffy.
Nature drives me nuts. Subscription is ridiculously expensive, and for unknown reason doesn’t include anything before 2017, which is most of the best research.
Is there some major bandwidth problem for those servers?! Why!?
Is there some major bandwidth problem for those servers?! Why!?
January 31, 2025 at 12:47 PM
Nature drives me nuts. Subscription is ridiculously expensive, and for unknown reason doesn’t include anything before 2017, which is most of the best research.
Is there some major bandwidth problem for those servers?! Why!?
Is there some major bandwidth problem for those servers?! Why!?
Reposted
Nope. The model way overestimates warming. The model estimated a .84C temperature rise from 1980 to 409ppm CO2. The actual temperature rise at 409ppm was .56C ~2018, ~50% too high. But this was below trend. If you use the expected trend value it’s better ~.76C (using BEST), ~10%-20% too high. 1/🧵
January 25, 2025 at 7:31 PM
Nope. The model way overestimates warming. The model estimated a .84C temperature rise from 1980 to 409ppm CO2. The actual temperature rise at 409ppm was .56C ~2018, ~50% too high. But this was below trend. If you use the expected trend value it’s better ~.76C (using BEST), ~10%-20% too high. 1/🧵
4/🧵Using a data set more consistent with those used in the 80s, like HadCRU3, the temperature increase estimate is only .57C 1980-2018. So we’re back to an estimated trend more than 300% too high.
January 25, 2025 at 7:40 PM
4/🧵Using a data set more consistent with those used in the 80s, like HadCRU3, the temperature increase estimate is only .57C 1980-2018. So we’re back to an estimated trend more than 300% too high.
3/🧵which would’ve been slightly less than a 1.8C temperature increase from 1980 in the exxon model. Well over 200% actual trend.
Now, BEST is in the middle. NOAA estimates .68C & NASA .79C. But these estimates are very different than how people estimated global average temp in the 70s & 80s.
Now, BEST is in the middle. NOAA estimates .68C & NASA .79C. But these estimates are very different than how people estimated global average temp in the 70s & 80s.
January 25, 2025 at 7:39 PM
3/🧵which would’ve been slightly less than a 1.8C temperature increase from 1980 in the exxon model. Well over 200% actual trend.
Now, BEST is in the middle. NOAA estimates .68C & NASA .79C. But these estimates are very different than how people estimated global average temp in the 70s & 80s.
Now, BEST is in the middle. NOAA estimates .68C & NASA .79C. But these estimates are very different than how people estimated global average temp in the 70s & 80s.
2/🧵But this makes it seem way better than it actually is. They estimate this for CO2 alone, CO2 is only a portion of the actual greenhouse increase. The actual forcing was ~40% bigger than CO2 alone. So no, the model was not accurate. Not even remotely. The actual forcing in 2018 was eCO2 502ppm…
January 25, 2025 at 7:34 PM
2/🧵But this makes it seem way better than it actually is. They estimate this for CO2 alone, CO2 is only a portion of the actual greenhouse increase. The actual forcing was ~40% bigger than CO2 alone. So no, the model was not accurate. Not even remotely. The actual forcing in 2018 was eCO2 502ppm…
Nope. The model way overestimates warming. The model estimated a .84C temperature rise from 1980 to 409ppm CO2. The actual temperature rise at 409ppm was .56C ~2018, ~50% too high. But this was below trend. If you use the expected trend value it’s better ~.76C (using BEST), ~10%-20% too high. 1/🧵
January 25, 2025 at 7:31 PM
Nope. The model way overestimates warming. The model estimated a .84C temperature rise from 1980 to 409ppm CO2. The actual temperature rise at 409ppm was .56C ~2018, ~50% too high. But this was below trend. If you use the expected trend value it’s better ~.76C (using BEST), ~10%-20% too high. 1/🧵
Not surprised. No one benefits from the climate scam more than big oil and OPEC.
January 25, 2025 at 7:14 PM
Not surprised. No one benefits from the climate scam more than big oil and OPEC.
Literally sick to my stomach:
“For the first time since World War II, global access to electricity declined in 2022, and likely remained flat in 2023. This left more people relying on traditional energy sources, which leads to increased health threats and rising air pollution.”
“For the first time since World War II, global access to electricity declined in 2022, and likely remained flat in 2023. This left more people relying on traditional energy sources, which leads to increased health threats and rising air pollution.”
“Organizations… have begun to categorize traditional burning as renewable energy. The IEA has been able to show an increase in renewable energy consumption by this reporting & an increase in “women in the energy workforce” by classifying women who gather dung & sticks as “energy workers.”
www.realclearenergy.org
January 23, 2025 at 7:11 PM
Literally sick to my stomach:
“For the first time since World War II, global access to electricity declined in 2022, and likely remained flat in 2023. This left more people relying on traditional energy sources, which leads to increased health threats and rising air pollution.”
“For the first time since World War II, global access to electricity declined in 2022, and likely remained flat in 2023. This left more people relying on traditional energy sources, which leads to increased health threats and rising air pollution.”
Literally sick to my stomach:
“For the first time since World War II, global access to electricity declined in 2022, and likely remained flat in 2023. This left more people relying on traditional energy sources, which leads to increased health threats and rising air pollution.”
“For the first time since World War II, global access to electricity declined in 2022, and likely remained flat in 2023. This left more people relying on traditional energy sources, which leads to increased health threats and rising air pollution.”
January 23, 2025 at 7:09 PM
Literally sick to my stomach:
“For the first time since World War II, global access to electricity declined in 2022, and likely remained flat in 2023. This left more people relying on traditional energy sources, which leads to increased health threats and rising air pollution.”
“For the first time since World War II, global access to electricity declined in 2022, and likely remained flat in 2023. This left more people relying on traditional energy sources, which leads to increased health threats and rising air pollution.”