@aaronshem.bsky.social
UofM IO&E, Optimization, Risk Mgt, Financial Eng/Engineering Economy, MBA, Sailor, Biker, Horse Riding, Oil painting, Acro, Aerial (Lift people, not weights.)
1/🧵
Arctic ice is likely thickening & will last more into summer. The ice extent may be lower in early spring, but will stay higher in late spring & summer depending on winds. If winds are low in spring & summer (likely if QBO west asserts & stabilizes polar vortex), sea ice will persist into fall…
Arctic ice is likely thickening & will last more into summer. The ice extent may be lower in early spring, but will stay higher in late spring & summer depending on winds. If winds are low in spring & summer (likely if QBO west asserts & stabilizes polar vortex), sea ice will persist into fall…
February 18, 2025 at 12:27 PM
1/🧵
Arctic ice is likely thickening & will last more into summer. The ice extent may be lower in early spring, but will stay higher in late spring & summer depending on winds. If winds are low in spring & summer (likely if QBO west asserts & stabilizes polar vortex), sea ice will persist into fall…
Arctic ice is likely thickening & will last more into summer. The ice extent may be lower in early spring, but will stay higher in late spring & summer depending on winds. If winds are low in spring & summer (likely if QBO west asserts & stabilizes polar vortex), sea ice will persist into fall…
Reposted
The issue of increasing (exponentially increasing, even?) scientific literature is real. Systematic review techniques help overcome some of the many problems of biases that occur as a result. I've always been concerned that IPCC hasn't engaged much with SR people at least to discuss the problems.
IPCC at the Crossroads
The IPCC needs to up its game to sustain its legitimacy
rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/ipcc-at-th...
The IPCC needs to up its game to sustain its legitimacy
rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/ipcc-at-th...
IPCC at the Crossroads
The IPCC needs to up its game to sustain its legitimacy
rogerpielkejr.substack.com
February 3, 2025 at 7:27 PM
The issue of increasing (exponentially increasing, even?) scientific literature is real. Systematic review techniques help overcome some of the many problems of biases that occur as a result. I've always been concerned that IPCC hasn't engaged much with SR people at least to discuss the problems.
Reposted
Nope. The model way overestimates warming. The model estimated a .84C temperature rise from 1980 to 409ppm CO2. The actual temperature rise at 409ppm was .56C ~2018, ~50% too high. But this was below trend. If you use the expected trend value it’s better ~.76C (using BEST), ~10%-20% too high. 1/🧵
January 25, 2025 at 7:31 PM
Nope. The model way overestimates warming. The model estimated a .84C temperature rise from 1980 to 409ppm CO2. The actual temperature rise at 409ppm was .56C ~2018, ~50% too high. But this was below trend. If you use the expected trend value it’s better ~.76C (using BEST), ~10%-20% too high. 1/🧵
John Brennan and the 51 intel letter signers confession that they carefully crafted the letter as to not outright lie proves intent.
January 24, 2025 at 3:34 AM
John Brennan and the 51 intel letter signers confession that they carefully crafted the letter as to not outright lie proves intent.
This is the most incredible failure of our intelligence agencies of probably all time. US & Europe have completely abdicated Africa to China & Russia. Russia has been using climate change to manipulate us for decades, and played us perfectly. Makes you wonder if Brennan wasn’t working for them.
January 24, 2025 at 12:44 AM
This is the most incredible failure of our intelligence agencies of probably all time. US & Europe have completely abdicated Africa to China & Russia. Russia has been using climate change to manipulate us for decades, and played us perfectly. Makes you wonder if Brennan wasn’t working for them.
“Organizations… have begun to categorize traditional burning as renewable energy. The IEA has been able to show an increase in renewable energy consumption by this reporting & an increase in “women in the energy workforce” by classifying women who gather dung & sticks as “energy workers.”
www.realclearenergy.org
January 23, 2025 at 6:32 PM
“Organizations… have begun to categorize traditional burning as renewable energy. The IEA has been able to show an increase in renewable energy consumption by this reporting & an increase in “women in the energy workforce” by classifying women who gather dung & sticks as “energy workers.”
Reposted
7/🧵
If Climate Activists were smart, they’d use the Green Paradox to their advantage to get people on board & accelerate transitioning to a less carbon intensive future. But it requires accelerating fossil fuel use in the short/medium term…
x.com/rogerpielkej...
If Climate Activists were smart, they’d use the Green Paradox to their advantage to get people on board & accelerate transitioning to a less carbon intensive future. But it requires accelerating fossil fuel use in the short/medium term…
x.com/rogerpielkej...
January 21, 2025 at 8:17 PM
7/🧵
If Climate Activists were smart, they’d use the Green Paradox to their advantage to get people on board & accelerate transitioning to a less carbon intensive future. But it requires accelerating fossil fuel use in the short/medium term…
x.com/rogerpielkej...
If Climate Activists were smart, they’d use the Green Paradox to their advantage to get people on board & accelerate transitioning to a less carbon intensive future. But it requires accelerating fossil fuel use in the short/medium term…
x.com/rogerpielkej...
Reposted
If only there were any semblance of truth to that. The over reaction to climate change has caused all sorts of problems, from the current Russia-Ukraine war to lack of development in Africa & environmental degradation. Paradoxically, it delays transition from fossil fuels…1/🧵
January 21, 2025 at 7:59 PM
If only there were any semblance of truth to that. The over reaction to climate change has caused all sorts of problems, from the current Russia-Ukraine war to lack of development in Africa & environmental degradation. Paradoxically, it delays transition from fossil fuels…1/🧵
I think maybe Elon gestured like that on purpose to make all the crazies show their crazy.
January 21, 2025 at 9:05 PM
I think maybe Elon gestured like that on purpose to make all the crazies show their crazy.
8/🧵
Establishment of this dynamic could keep prices too low for most new major reserves to be developed before costs of alternatives make fossil fuels near worthless… web.mit.edu/krugman/www/...
Establishment of this dynamic could keep prices too low for most new major reserves to be developed before costs of alternatives make fossil fuels near worthless… web.mit.edu/krugman/www/...
The energy crisis revisited
web.mit.edu
January 21, 2025 at 8:26 PM
If only there were any semblance of truth to that. The over reaction to climate change has caused all sorts of problems, from the current Russia-Ukraine war to lack of development in Africa & environmental degradation. Paradoxically, it delays transition from fossil fuels…1/🧵
January 21, 2025 at 7:59 PM
If only there were any semblance of truth to that. The over reaction to climate change has caused all sorts of problems, from the current Russia-Ukraine war to lack of development in Africa & environmental degradation. Paradoxically, it delays transition from fossil fuels…1/🧵
Reposted
Cicadas have little, bendy micro-pillars on their wings that pierce bacterial membranes and are as effective at killing microbes as a bleach solution. It might be possible to mimic this effect for use in medical (etc.) equipment. 🪳🪲🧪
www.science.org/content/arti...
www.science.org/content/arti...
Microscopic pillars on insect wings give bugs an antibacterial superpower
New insights into how these “nanopillars” work could inspire better ways to protect humans from infection
www.science.org
January 17, 2025 at 7:45 PM
Cicadas have little, bendy micro-pillars on their wings that pierce bacterial membranes and are as effective at killing microbes as a bleach solution. It might be possible to mimic this effect for use in medical (etc.) equipment. 🪳🪲🧪
www.science.org/content/arti...
www.science.org/content/arti...
Reposted
EarthCARE goes live with data now available to all www.esa.int/Applications...
EarthCARE goes live with data now available to all
With ESA’s EarthCARE satellite and four measuring instruments all working extremely well and fully commissioned, the mission’s ‘first level’ data stream is now freely available.By combining data from ...
www.esa.int
January 16, 2025 at 7:11 PM
EarthCARE goes live with data now available to all www.esa.int/Applications...
Atlantic overturning inferred from air-sea heat fluxes indicates no decline since the 1960s
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Atlantic overturning inferred from air-sea heat fluxes indicates no decline since the 1960s - Nature Communications
The AMOC is crucial for the global ocean overturning circulation and controls the climate around the North Atlantic. Here, the authors use 24 Earth System Models from the CMIP6 to demonstrate tha...
www.nature.com
January 16, 2025 at 7:49 PM
Atlantic overturning inferred from air-sea heat fluxes indicates no decline since the 1960s
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Reposted
I bet it will be ~1.3C. Won’t be surprised if it gets below 1.2C, especially if you exclude the poles (the 1879 anomaly may have been higher if we had coverage like today). bsky.app/profile/aaro...
Same thing happened in 1877-78. Multiple la ninas & a sudden transition to el nino early in the year & strong easterly QBO, induced a major rossby wave propagation causing blocking & wavy jet stream. The early transition pushed out warm waters before they normally cool, damping the el nino index...
January 14, 2025 at 4:02 PM
I bet it will be ~1.3C. Won’t be surprised if it gets below 1.2C, especially if you exclude the poles (the 1879 anomaly may have been higher if we had coverage like today). bsky.app/profile/aaro...
Reposted
This is so interesting by Mike Hulme. Essential reading! This phrase stands out for me: "There is no hidden hand—least of all the benign hand of science—guiding the world to a safe climate-landing."
From Idealism to Realism
Mike Hulme, a top climate scientist, shares his journey
rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/from-ideal...
Mike Hulme, a top climate scientist, shares his journey
rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/from-ideal...
From Idealism to Realism
Mike Hulme, a top climate scientist, shares his journey
rogerpielkejr.substack.com
January 13, 2025 at 6:09 PM
This is so interesting by Mike Hulme. Essential reading! This phrase stands out for me: "There is no hidden hand—least of all the benign hand of science—guiding the world to a safe climate-landing."
Reposted
This hyperselective story is a classic example of what Cambridge climate researcher & longtime IPCC author Mike Hulme calls #climatism. It’s as if an editor asked for every possible way climate change (but only climate change) might have contributed to the intensity of the Palisades catastrophe. 1/
January 11, 2025 at 1:13 PM
This hyperselective story is a classic example of what Cambridge climate researcher & longtime IPCC author Mike Hulme calls #climatism. It’s as if an editor asked for every possible way climate change (but only climate change) might have contributed to the intensity of the Palisades catastrophe. 1/
Reposted
January 11, 2025 at 4:10 PM
Reposted
In the meantime, we can enhance driving efficiency to ease traffic & cut fuel consumption.
Accelerate quicker, minimize braking, eliminate redundant stop signs, & adopt adaptable Target Speeds.🚗⚡️🧵
Accelerate quicker, minimize braking, eliminate redundant stop signs, & adopt adaptable Target Speeds.🚗⚡️🧵
x.com
mobile.twitter.com
January 9, 2025 at 7:15 PM
In the meantime, we can enhance driving efficiency to ease traffic & cut fuel consumption.
Accelerate quicker, minimize braking, eliminate redundant stop signs, & adopt adaptable Target Speeds.🚗⚡️🧵
Accelerate quicker, minimize braking, eliminate redundant stop signs, & adopt adaptable Target Speeds.🚗⚡️🧵
🧵
If you really want to transition away from fossil fuels, you need to invest massively in expanding nuclear for the long run & natural gas & oil for the short & medium term, capacity that can easily be turned on & off. This will also cripple Russia. Create the ability to spike oil & gas prices.
January 9, 2025 at 6:46 PM
🧵
Must read thread: threadreaderapp.com/thread/18773...
January 9, 2025 at 4:29 PM
Must read thread: threadreaderapp.com/thread/18773...
Reposted
We published this in 2020: They Know How to Prevent Megafires. Why Won’t Anybody Listen?
They Know How to Prevent Megafires. Why Won’t Anybody Listen?
This is a story about frustration, about watching the West burn when you fully understand why it’s burning — and understand why it did not need to be this bad.
bit.ly
January 8, 2025 at 11:09 PM
We published this in 2020: They Know How to Prevent Megafires. Why Won’t Anybody Listen?
Apparently neither Climate Change nor Fuel Management have significant impact on this particular type of fire. The winds are so intense, moisture and temperature don’t matter. Ignitions do.
science.org/doi/full/10....
science.org/doi/full/10....
Ignitions explain more than temperature or precipitation in driving Santa Ana wind fires
Temperature and precipitation play less of a role in predicting area burned compared to wind speed and number of ignitions.
science.org
January 8, 2025 at 10:35 PM
Apparently neither Climate Change nor Fuel Management have significant impact on this particular type of fire. The winds are so intense, moisture and temperature don’t matter. Ignitions do.
science.org/doi/full/10....
science.org/doi/full/10....
Wildfire is declining.
science.org/doi/10.1126/...
In the past 20 years, grassland wildfire has decreased significantly. Forest wildfire has increased insignificantly, even less so by area. Total wildfire is down significantly by both emissions & area. The decrease is mostly grasslands.
science.org/doi/10.1126/...
In the past 20 years, grassland wildfire has decreased significantly. Forest wildfire has increased insignificantly, even less so by area. Total wildfire is down significantly by both emissions & area. The decrease is mostly grasslands.
December 28, 2024 at 5:06 PM
Wildfire is declining.
science.org/doi/10.1126/...
In the past 20 years, grassland wildfire has decreased significantly. Forest wildfire has increased insignificantly, even less so by area. Total wildfire is down significantly by both emissions & area. The decrease is mostly grasslands.
science.org/doi/10.1126/...
In the past 20 years, grassland wildfire has decreased significantly. Forest wildfire has increased insignificantly, even less so by area. Total wildfire is down significantly by both emissions & area. The decrease is mostly grasslands.