@aaronshem.bsky.social
UofM IO&E, Optimization, Risk Mgt, Financial Eng/Engineering Economy, MBA, Sailor, Biker, Horse Riding, Oil painting, Acro, Aerial (Lift people, not weights.)
6/🧵
Right now, I’m guessing high winds breaking & pushing sea ice. Lots of precipitation releasing latent heat. More sea surface losing heat, but where there’s ice it is thickening. The thicker ice will last more into summer. The latent heat release will radiate away in the dry winter air.
Right now, I’m guessing high winds breaking & pushing sea ice. Lots of precipitation releasing latent heat. More sea surface losing heat, but where there’s ice it is thickening. The thicker ice will last more into summer. The latent heat release will radiate away in the dry winter air.
February 18, 2025 at 12:53 PM
6/🧵
Right now, I’m guessing high winds breaking & pushing sea ice. Lots of precipitation releasing latent heat. More sea surface losing heat, but where there’s ice it is thickening. The thicker ice will last more into summer. The latent heat release will radiate away in the dry winter air.
Right now, I’m guessing high winds breaking & pushing sea ice. Lots of precipitation releasing latent heat. More sea surface losing heat, but where there’s ice it is thickening. The thicker ice will last more into summer. The latent heat release will radiate away in the dry winter air.
3/🧵
we may see slightly elevated arctic temperatures as the rest of the world cools. However, Paul Roundy notes recent westerly winds are releasing heat that’s been storing up in the indian ocean for decades & could trigger el nino this summer…
we may see slightly elevated arctic temperatures as the rest of the world cools. However, Paul Roundy notes recent westerly winds are releasing heat that’s been storing up in the indian ocean for decades & could trigger el nino this summer…
February 18, 2025 at 12:27 PM
3/🧵
we may see slightly elevated arctic temperatures as the rest of the world cools. However, Paul Roundy notes recent westerly winds are releasing heat that’s been storing up in the indian ocean for decades & could trigger el nino this summer…
we may see slightly elevated arctic temperatures as the rest of the world cools. However, Paul Roundy notes recent westerly winds are releasing heat that’s been storing up in the indian ocean for decades & could trigger el nino this summer…
2/🧵
There will be less heat loss by ocean & slightly less SW absorption in JJA, keeping arctic atmospheric temperatures low if that’s the case. Otherwise latent heat change from additional ice melt will keep temps relatively low as more heat flows into the arctic, if that’s the case…
There will be less heat loss by ocean & slightly less SW absorption in JJA, keeping arctic atmospheric temperatures low if that’s the case. Otherwise latent heat change from additional ice melt will keep temps relatively low as more heat flows into the arctic, if that’s the case…
February 18, 2025 at 12:27 PM
2/🧵
There will be less heat loss by ocean & slightly less SW absorption in JJA, keeping arctic atmospheric temperatures low if that’s the case. Otherwise latent heat change from additional ice melt will keep temps relatively low as more heat flows into the arctic, if that’s the case…
There will be less heat loss by ocean & slightly less SW absorption in JJA, keeping arctic atmospheric temperatures low if that’s the case. Otherwise latent heat change from additional ice melt will keep temps relatively low as more heat flows into the arctic, if that’s the case…
1/🧵
Arctic ice is likely thickening & will last more into summer. The ice extent may be lower in early spring, but will stay higher in late spring & summer depending on winds. If winds are low in spring & summer (likely if QBO west asserts & stabilizes polar vortex), sea ice will persist into fall…
Arctic ice is likely thickening & will last more into summer. The ice extent may be lower in early spring, but will stay higher in late spring & summer depending on winds. If winds are low in spring & summer (likely if QBO west asserts & stabilizes polar vortex), sea ice will persist into fall…
February 18, 2025 at 12:27 PM
1/🧵
Arctic ice is likely thickening & will last more into summer. The ice extent may be lower in early spring, but will stay higher in late spring & summer depending on winds. If winds are low in spring & summer (likely if QBO west asserts & stabilizes polar vortex), sea ice will persist into fall…
Arctic ice is likely thickening & will last more into summer. The ice extent may be lower in early spring, but will stay higher in late spring & summer depending on winds. If winds are low in spring & summer (likely if QBO west asserts & stabilizes polar vortex), sea ice will persist into fall…
3/🧵which would’ve been slightly less than a 1.8C temperature increase from 1980 in the exxon model. Well over 200% actual trend.
Now, BEST is in the middle. NOAA estimates .68C & NASA .79C. But these estimates are very different than how people estimated global average temp in the 70s & 80s.
Now, BEST is in the middle. NOAA estimates .68C & NASA .79C. But these estimates are very different than how people estimated global average temp in the 70s & 80s.
January 25, 2025 at 7:39 PM
3/🧵which would’ve been slightly less than a 1.8C temperature increase from 1980 in the exxon model. Well over 200% actual trend.
Now, BEST is in the middle. NOAA estimates .68C & NASA .79C. But these estimates are very different than how people estimated global average temp in the 70s & 80s.
Now, BEST is in the middle. NOAA estimates .68C & NASA .79C. But these estimates are very different than how people estimated global average temp in the 70s & 80s.
Nope. The model way overestimates warming. The model estimated a .84C temperature rise from 1980 to 409ppm CO2. The actual temperature rise at 409ppm was .56C ~2018, ~50% too high. But this was below trend. If you use the expected trend value it’s better ~.76C (using BEST), ~10%-20% too high. 1/🧵
January 25, 2025 at 7:31 PM
Nope. The model way overestimates warming. The model estimated a .84C temperature rise from 1980 to 409ppm CO2. The actual temperature rise at 409ppm was .56C ~2018, ~50% too high. But this was below trend. If you use the expected trend value it’s better ~.76C (using BEST), ~10%-20% too high. 1/🧵
John Brennan and the 51 intel letter signers confession that they carefully crafted the letter as to not outright lie proves intent.
January 24, 2025 at 3:34 AM
John Brennan and the 51 intel letter signers confession that they carefully crafted the letter as to not outright lie proves intent.
This is the most incredible failure of our intelligence agencies of probably all time. US & Europe have completely abdicated Africa to China & Russia. Russia has been using climate change to manipulate us for decades, and played us perfectly. Makes you wonder if Brennan wasn’t working for them.
January 24, 2025 at 12:44 AM
This is the most incredible failure of our intelligence agencies of probably all time. US & Europe have completely abdicated Africa to China & Russia. Russia has been using climate change to manipulate us for decades, and played us perfectly. Makes you wonder if Brennan wasn’t working for them.
7/🧵
If Climate Activists were smart, they’d use the Green Paradox to their advantage to get people on board & accelerate transitioning to a less carbon intensive future. But it requires accelerating fossil fuel use in the short/medium term…
x.com/rogerpielkej...
If Climate Activists were smart, they’d use the Green Paradox to their advantage to get people on board & accelerate transitioning to a less carbon intensive future. But it requires accelerating fossil fuel use in the short/medium term…
x.com/rogerpielkej...
January 21, 2025 at 8:17 PM
7/🧵
If Climate Activists were smart, they’d use the Green Paradox to their advantage to get people on board & accelerate transitioning to a less carbon intensive future. But it requires accelerating fossil fuel use in the short/medium term…
x.com/rogerpielkej...
If Climate Activists were smart, they’d use the Green Paradox to their advantage to get people on board & accelerate transitioning to a less carbon intensive future. But it requires accelerating fossil fuel use in the short/medium term…
x.com/rogerpielkej...
4/🧵
Western emissions are essentially irrelevant to future warming. The way to keep concentration growth down is to figure out how to develop Africa & Asia without using too much coal…
x.com/aaronshem/st...
Western emissions are essentially irrelevant to future warming. The way to keep concentration growth down is to figure out how to develop Africa & Asia without using too much coal…
x.com/aaronshem/st...
January 21, 2025 at 8:08 PM
4/🧵
Western emissions are essentially irrelevant to future warming. The way to keep concentration growth down is to figure out how to develop Africa & Asia without using too much coal…
x.com/aaronshem/st...
Western emissions are essentially irrelevant to future warming. The way to keep concentration growth down is to figure out how to develop Africa & Asia without using too much coal…
x.com/aaronshem/st...
3/🧵
We also see pushes for changes to our agriculture system that will increase risk & probably exacerbate chronic health problems. We’ve delayed progress in productivity in africa which means more environmental destruction & less progress in nutrition improvement…
x.com/tednordhaus/...
We also see pushes for changes to our agriculture system that will increase risk & probably exacerbate chronic health problems. We’ve delayed progress in productivity in africa which means more environmental destruction & less progress in nutrition improvement…
x.com/tednordhaus/...
January 21, 2025 at 8:05 PM
3/🧵
We also see pushes for changes to our agriculture system that will increase risk & probably exacerbate chronic health problems. We’ve delayed progress in productivity in africa which means more environmental destruction & less progress in nutrition improvement…
x.com/tednordhaus/...
We also see pushes for changes to our agriculture system that will increase risk & probably exacerbate chronic health problems. We’ve delayed progress in productivity in africa which means more environmental destruction & less progress in nutrition improvement…
x.com/tednordhaus/...
2/🧵
We’d be much further along without the distraction of premature expansion of wind & solar. Nuclear could have achieved far more, faster & cheaper… twitter.com/aaronshem/st...
We’d be much further along without the distraction of premature expansion of wind & solar. Nuclear could have achieved far more, faster & cheaper… twitter.com/aaronshem/st...
January 21, 2025 at 8:01 PM
2/🧵
We’d be much further along without the distraction of premature expansion of wind & solar. Nuclear could have achieved far more, faster & cheaper… twitter.com/aaronshem/st...
We’d be much further along without the distraction of premature expansion of wind & solar. Nuclear could have achieved far more, faster & cheaper… twitter.com/aaronshem/st...
If only there were any semblance of truth to that. The over reaction to climate change has caused all sorts of problems, from the current Russia-Ukraine war to lack of development in Africa & environmental degradation. Paradoxically, it delays transition from fossil fuels…1/🧵
January 21, 2025 at 7:59 PM
If only there were any semblance of truth to that. The over reaction to climate change has caused all sorts of problems, from the current Russia-Ukraine war to lack of development in Africa & environmental degradation. Paradoxically, it delays transition from fossil fuels…1/🧵
It’s also thawed before and CO2 and methane concentrations fell. This is likely just natural variability. Thawing was likely faster in the early holocene, when thaw reached these lands there was a switch from release to uptake.
January 21, 2025 at 5:19 PM
It’s also thawed before and CO2 and methane concentrations fell. This is likely just natural variability. Thawing was likely faster in the early holocene, when thaw reached these lands there was a switch from release to uptake.
Or just not being embarrassingly insane.
“Horrific: this member of the village people appears to be doing two Nazi salutes at the same time 😡😡😡”
“Horrific: this member of the village people appears to be doing two Nazi salutes at the same time 😡😡😡”
January 21, 2025 at 12:51 PM
Or just not being embarrassingly insane.
“Horrific: this member of the village people appears to be doing two Nazi salutes at the same time 😡😡😡”
“Horrific: this member of the village people appears to be doing two Nazi salutes at the same time 😡😡😡”
The larger ice melt back then suggests it was warming faster then than to about the 2000s.
January 17, 2025 at 12:03 PM
The larger ice melt back then suggests it was warming faster then than to about the 2000s.
The roughly 150GtC increase in terrestrial biomass the past half century+ isn’t exactly small.
January 14, 2025 at 6:42 PM
The roughly 150GtC increase in terrestrial biomass the past half century+ isn’t exactly small.
Roughly 150GtC increase in terrestrial biosphere the past half century isn’t exactly small.
January 14, 2025 at 6:39 PM
Roughly 150GtC increase in terrestrial biosphere the past half century isn’t exactly small.
Same thing happened in 1877-78. Multiple la ninas & a sudden transition to el nino early in the year & strong easterly QBO, induced a major rossby wave propagation causing blocking & wavy jet stream. The early transition pushed out warm waters before they normally cool, damping the el nino index...
January 14, 2025 at 3:39 PM
Same thing happened in 1877-78. Multiple la ninas & a sudden transition to el nino early in the year & strong easterly QBO, induced a major rossby wave propagation causing blocking & wavy jet stream. The early transition pushed out warm waters before they normally cool, damping the el nino index...
Incorrect. You have cause and effect reversed. The weather patterns are what caused the high temperature anomalies, not the other way around. The last time we has similar weather, when the baseline was much cooler, the consequences were far more severe. www.audible.com/pd/B06ZY61DR...
January 13, 2025 at 8:09 PM
Incorrect. You have cause and effect reversed. The weather patterns are what caused the high temperature anomalies, not the other way around. The last time we has similar weather, when the baseline was much cooler, the consequences were far more severe. www.audible.com/pd/B06ZY61DR...
In the fall. The trend is for wetter this time of year.
It’s also not a big factor for winds this intense.
It’s also not a big factor for winds this intense.
January 11, 2025 at 8:23 PM
In the fall. The trend is for wetter this time of year.
It’s also not a big factor for winds this intense.
It’s also not a big factor for winds this intense.
Systematic delay of the dry season into the normal wet season isn't a factor by this time in January because general trends are toward higher precipitation. It's dry this year because of the weak La Niña condition. The “overlap” is in the fall, not relevant to this event at all.
January 11, 2025 at 8:15 PM
Systematic delay of the dry season into the normal wet season isn't a factor by this time in January because general trends are toward higher precipitation. It's dry this year because of the weak La Niña condition. The “overlap” is in the fall, not relevant to this event at all.