Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov (吳亞克)
@aakhmetz.bsky.social
Math Epi, infectious diseases at National Taiwan University College of Public Health
Recently, Taiwanese government sent a scary book asking their citizens to prepare for war. A lot of money has been spent on that book and there QR codes in it, which would not be working in case of war. Anyway, let's wish the peace will remain
November 23, 2025 at 5:51 AM
Recently, Taiwanese government sent a scary book asking their citizens to prepare for war. A lot of money has been spent on that book and there QR codes in it, which would not be working in case of war. Anyway, let's wish the peace will remain
I have not been really against using AI, but first time I thought of it, when I read someone's comment on another comment published in the journal. Especially, when the opening of the letter looks "familiar":
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Indeed, checking with Grammarly gave a score of 42%
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Indeed, checking with Grammarly gave a score of 42%
November 23, 2025 at 3:56 AM
I have not been really against using AI, but first time I thought of it, when I read someone's comment on another comment published in the journal. Especially, when the opening of the letter looks "familiar":
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Indeed, checking with Grammarly gave a score of 42%
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Indeed, checking with Grammarly gave a score of 42%
Reposted by Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov (吳亞克)
Nice preprint by David Earn and Todd Parsons (H/T @jmccaw.bsky.social) showing how the SIR model can be related to a more general class of renewal process models that don't assume exponentially distributed infectious period.
arxiv.org/abs/2511.01939
arxiv.org/abs/2511.01939
Epidemic Momentum
Infectious disease outbreaks have precipitated a profusion of mathematical models. We introduce a unifying concept of "epidemic momentum" -- prevalence weighted by the capacity to infect in the future...
arxiv.org
November 11, 2025 at 7:16 PM
Nice preprint by David Earn and Todd Parsons (H/T @jmccaw.bsky.social) showing how the SIR model can be related to a more general class of renewal process models that don't assume exponentially distributed infectious period.
arxiv.org/abs/2511.01939
arxiv.org/abs/2511.01939
Following the first report of African Swine Fever (#ASF) in Taiwan, here is a reminder of our paper on the 2018-2019 ASF outbreak in China. It took about 6 months to for ASF to get reported in every province of China. Long-distance tranmissions were driving the outbreak: doi.org/10.1017/S095...
October 22, 2025 at 1:41 PM
Following the first report of African Swine Fever (#ASF) in Taiwan, here is a reminder of our paper on the 2018-2019 ASF outbreak in China. It took about 6 months to for ASF to get reported in every province of China. Long-distance tranmissions were driving the outbreak: doi.org/10.1017/S095...
A nice subsection, "Let us consider the following framework". My student said, it is cute
October 17, 2025 at 6:53 AM
A nice subsection, "Let us consider the following framework". My student said, it is cute
Quite interesting perspective!
What future does AI hold? With @paulbrainey.bsky.social, we hypothesize that human-AI coevolution is leading to the emergence of a new evolutionary unit of selection. Science fiction or looming fact? Read our paper and judge for yourself. www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
September 15, 2025 at 4:25 AM
Quite interesting perspective!
Reposted by Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov (吳亞克)
My dynamical modeling slides from the NCTS course on Infectious Disease modeling github.com/dushoff/dise...
July 30, 2025 at 3:00 PM
My dynamical modeling slides from the NCTS course on Infectious Disease modeling github.com/dushoff/dise...
Great to have very interesting lectures during this year summer school at NTU! And great to have the summer school back after COVID-19 pandemic!
Very impressed by the students at our workshop on Mathematical Modeling and Analysis of Infectious Diseases at the the National Center for Theoretical Science at National Taiwan University last week. dushoff.github.io/Planning/nts...
July 31, 2025 at 1:34 AM
Great to have very interesting lectures during this year summer school at NTU! And great to have the summer school back after COVID-19 pandemic!
Does Copilot really help? I have been struggling with coding recently, let's see...
June 29, 2025 at 5:45 AM
Does Copilot really help? I have been struggling with coding recently, let's see...
Oh, it's appeared - I received the first invitation to review for Discover journal. See details the-strain-on-scientific-publishing.github.io/website/post...
June 18, 2025 at 4:37 AM
Oh, it's appeared - I received the first invitation to review for Discover journal. See details the-strain-on-scientific-publishing.github.io/website/post...
This NEJM episode about angioedema is quite interesting. youtu.be/8Ds16fscqKQ?...
The patient had reoccuring of abdominal pain, and it was a mystery. One of the explanations was Familial Mediterranean fever (FMF), which was unlikely because the patient didn't report any fever.
The patient had reoccuring of abdominal pain, and it was a mystery. One of the explanations was Familial Mediterranean fever (FMF), which was unlikely because the patient didn't report any fever.
May 22, 2025 at 3:02 AM
This NEJM episode about angioedema is quite interesting. youtu.be/8Ds16fscqKQ?...
The patient had reoccuring of abdominal pain, and it was a mystery. One of the explanations was Familial Mediterranean fever (FMF), which was unlikely because the patient didn't report any fever.
The patient had reoccuring of abdominal pain, and it was a mystery. One of the explanations was Familial Mediterranean fever (FMF), which was unlikely because the patient didn't report any fever.
An interesting title with "China and its provinces" doi.org/10.1016/S221... Although it assumes some external provinces, they are not part of the study: all analysis is about PRC and two SARs.
May 14, 2025 at 3:00 AM
An interesting title with "China and its provinces" doi.org/10.1016/S221... Although it assumes some external provinces, they are not part of the study: all analysis is about PRC and two SARs.
Interersting and important study of Chang et al on pregnancy and associated severe injuries during the car crashes based on Taiwan data (www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...). Severe injuries: adjusted odds ratio, aOR = 1.79, 95 % CI = 1.54–2.08) and mild injuries: aOR = 8.63, 95 % CI = 8.21–9.07)
Pregnancy is associated with more severe injuries from motor vehicle crashes
Whether pregnancy is associated with severe injuries from motor vehicle crashes (MVCs) remains unclear. This study aimed to investigate the potential …
www.sciencedirect.com
April 24, 2025 at 3:49 AM
Interersting and important study of Chang et al on pregnancy and associated severe injuries during the car crashes based on Taiwan data (www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...). Severe injuries: adjusted odds ratio, aOR = 1.79, 95 % CI = 1.54–2.08) and mild injuries: aOR = 8.63, 95 % CI = 8.21–9.07)
I don't understand this kind of reviews. Are people kind of not ashamed to submit just one paragraph of a summary for the review?
April 22, 2025 at 1:25 AM
I don't understand this kind of reviews. Are people kind of not ashamed to submit just one paragraph of a summary for the review?
Recently, we published a comment on 2022 Sudan virus outbreak in Uganda www.thelancet.com/journals/lan... The study estimated the (constant) effective reproduction number Rt at 1.25. We have investigated a time-varying Rt, highlighting that its temporary variation can also provide important messages
2022 Sudan virus disease outbreak in Uganda: temporal variations in transmission
In their descriptive epidemiological study, Zainah Kabami and colleagues (August,
2024)1 analysed epidemiological data from the 2022 Sudan virus disease outbreak in
Uganda. The outbreak resulted in 16...
www.thelancet.com
April 17, 2025 at 3:23 AM
Recently, we published a comment on 2022 Sudan virus outbreak in Uganda www.thelancet.com/journals/lan... The study estimated the (constant) effective reproduction number Rt at 1.25. We have investigated a time-varying Rt, highlighting that its temporary variation can also provide important messages
When I received the automatic reply that the person was out of office for some time, but then they wrote "Your message will not be processed". Is it kind of a new fashion [in Europe]? :/
April 17, 2025 at 3:11 AM
When I received the automatic reply that the person was out of office for some time, but then they wrote "Your message will not be processed". Is it kind of a new fashion [in Europe]? :/
Oh, the news in Independent about the largest outbreak of TB in Kanzas, but the article states that TB has two different strains: active TB and latent TB. But they are definitely not two strains, and latent TB may progress to active TB... :/
www.the-independent.com/news/world/a...
www.the-independent.com/news/world/a...
January 29, 2025 at 4:21 PM
Oh, the news in Independent about the largest outbreak of TB in Kanzas, but the article states that TB has two different strains: active TB and latent TB. But they are definitely not two strains, and latent TB may progress to active TB... :/
www.the-independent.com/news/world/a...
www.the-independent.com/news/world/a...
Wow, so the cumulative excess mortality due to COVID-19 is at highest in Russia, Belarus, and Balkan republics as of July 2024 according to Cowling and Wong (doi.org/10.1007/978-...)
January 17, 2025 at 7:36 AM
Wow, so the cumulative excess mortality due to COVID-19 is at highest in Russia, Belarus, and Balkan republics as of July 2024 according to Cowling and Wong (doi.org/10.1007/978-...)
Another example when Taiwan with its 23-million population is simply excluded from the statistical data
January 14, 2025 at 5:48 AM
Another example when Taiwan with its 23-million population is simply excluded from the statistical data
In our recent paper, we showed that the incubation period of mpox infections for the 2022 global outbreak and historical data were quite close to each other (8.1 vs. 8.2 days). However, the incubation period for clade I was relatively shorter than for clade II (7.3 vs 8.9 days).
August 26, 2024 at 7:13 AM
In our recent paper, we showed that the incubation period of mpox infections for the 2022 global outbreak and historical data were quite close to each other (8.1 vs. 8.2 days). However, the incubation period for clade I was relatively shorter than for clade II (7.3 vs 8.9 days).
Today I was told that patients with advanced liver cancer would never be cancer-free, so their only one solution is to control the tumor.
July 10, 2024 at 8:30 AM
Today I was told that patients with advanced liver cancer would never be cancer-free, so their only one solution is to control the tumor.
My first post in ProMED :)
June 27, 2024 at 3:02 AM
My first post in ProMED :)
It's of great pleasure to be a part of joint effort on trying to clarify some challenging aspects for estimating epi time intervals of infectious diseases. The project mostly led and mostly realized by Sang Woo Park and Sam Abbott (@seabbs.bsky.social) - many thanks!
Estimating epidemiological delay distributions for infectious diseases
medRxiv - The Preprint Server for Health Sciences
www.medrxiv.org
January 15, 2024 at 7:57 AM
It's of great pleasure to be a part of joint effort on trying to clarify some challenging aspects for estimating epi time intervals of infectious diseases. The project mostly led and mostly realized by Sang Woo Park and Sam Abbott (@seabbs.bsky.social) - many thanks!
Interesting, a study from HK: "We calculated percentages of asymptomatic cases of 41.8% among reported SARS-CoV-2 infections and 72.1% (95% CrI 70.8%–73.0%) among total (reported and unreported) infections."
Inferring Incidence of Unreported SARS-CoV-2 Infections Using Seroprevalence of Open Reading Frame 8...
Incidence of Unreported SARS-CoV-2 Infections
wwwnc.cdc.gov
January 8, 2024 at 3:12 AM
Interesting, a study from HK: "We calculated percentages of asymptomatic cases of 41.8% among reported SARS-CoV-2 infections and 72.1% (95% CrI 70.8%–73.0%) among total (reported and unreported) infections."