Michael Plank
@michaelplanknz.bsky.social
Professor of Applied Mathematics at the University of Canterbury, NZ. Fellow @royalsocietynz.bsky.social. Math modelling in biology and epidemiology. Bicycles make the world a better place. He/him
https://www.math.canterbury.ac.nz/~m.plank/
https://www.math.canterbury.ac.nz/~m.plank/
Status update: still on holiday Wakatipu edition
January 5, 2026 at 6:42 AM
Status update: still on holiday Wakatipu edition
Extended influenza seasons in Australia and New Zealand in 2025 due to the emergence of influenza A(H3N2) subclade K viruses
www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2...
www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2...
Extended influenza seasons in Australia and New Zealand in 2025 due to the emergence of influenza A(H3N2) subclade K viruses
In Australia and New Zealand, late outbreaks of an A(H3N2) variant virus termed subclade K extended the 2025 influenza season. Subclade K viruses were genetically and antigenically distinct from the 2025 vaccine A(H3N2) strain A/Croatia/10136RV/2023 (H3N2)-like virus and previously circulating subclade J viruses. Subclade K viruses have since been detected in over 34 countries and appear to have spread globally, except in South America. It is thus likely that they will further expand during the northern hemisphere winter 2025/26 season.
www.eurosurveillance.org
December 13, 2025 at 5:26 PM
Extended influenza seasons in Australia and New Zealand in 2025 due to the emergence of influenza A(H3N2) subclade K viruses
www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2...
www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2...
Reposted by Michael Plank
This influence campaign is coming to Ireland. Our leaders in higher education must get out in front of it. The evidence is clear. Pursuit of diverse knowledge for its own sake helps drive prosperity. Now go tell people!
If we accede to the demand that political appointees can decide what is worthwhile to study and what isn't, we've lost universities as institutions of knowledge, innovation, and progress. This is why academic freedom and tenure are so important.
This -- a model bill to effectively decimate non-STEM research by requiring 3-3 teaching loads outside of "STEM or Americanism and western civilization" -- seems...extremely bad but also quite plausible.
December 13, 2025 at 12:44 PM
This influence campaign is coming to Ireland. Our leaders in higher education must get out in front of it. The evidence is clear. Pursuit of diverse knowledge for its own sake helps drive prosperity. Now go tell people!
Interesting perspective on the recently amended International Health Regulations in relation to NZ's response to Covid. One size doesn't fit all & the IHR have enough flexibility for countries to determine their own response while still fulfilling intl obligations
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
When one size does not fit all – New Zealand perspectives on the International Health Regulations during the COVID-19 pandemic - Globalization and Health
The International Health Regulations (IHR) form the basis of the World Health Organization’s governing framework for global health security and have a key role in preventing the international spread o...
link.springer.com
December 11, 2025 at 8:22 AM
Interesting perspective on the recently amended International Health Regulations in relation to NZ's response to Covid. One size doesn't fit all & the IHR have enough flexibility for countries to determine their own response while still fulfilling intl obligations
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
Reposted by Michael Plank
In Ireland we probably averted about 500 newborn RSV hospitalizations once nirsevimab was introduced last year (~75% risk reduction). Uptake was > 80%, and that's what's threatened by these cynical safety concerns from the antivaxxers in the US government.
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...
December 10, 2025 at 3:06 AM
In Ireland we probably averted about 500 newborn RSV hospitalizations once nirsevimab was introduced last year (~75% risk reduction). Uptake was > 80%, and that's what's threatened by these cynical safety concerns from the antivaxxers in the US government.
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...
Reposted by Michael Plank
Foraging ecology drives viral community structure in New Zealand's aquatic birds www.biorxiv.org/content/10.6...
Foraging ecology drives viral community structure in New Zealand's aquatic birds
Wild migratory birds play a major role in the global spread of viruses, yet the diversity, host range and transmission patterns of viruses harboured by migratory species in Aotearoa/New Zealand remain...
www.biorxiv.org
December 10, 2025 at 7:01 AM
Foraging ecology drives viral community structure in New Zealand's aquatic birds www.biorxiv.org/content/10.6...
Reposted by Michael Plank
So, some people here are concerned with the sentence in this document that, "it will not be possible to halt the spread of a new pandemic virus, and it would be a waste of public health resources and capacity to attempt to do so" - what does it this mean? 🧵/1
www.england.nhs.uk/long-read/fr...
www.england.nhs.uk/long-read/fr...
NHS England » Framework for managing the response to pandemic diseases
NHS England » Framework for managing the response to pandemic diseases
www.england.nhs.uk
December 8, 2025 at 6:15 AM
So, some people here are concerned with the sentence in this document that, "it will not be possible to halt the spread of a new pandemic virus, and it would be a waste of public health resources and capacity to attempt to do so" - what does it this mean? 🧵/1
www.england.nhs.uk/long-read/fr...
www.england.nhs.uk/long-read/fr...
Pope publicly accused of Catholicism
December 5, 2025 at 12:31 AM
Pope publicly accused of Catholicism
Reposted by Michael Plank
Their rationale, surprise, is economic cost. Maybe look at what the economic cost of *not* reducing emissions is going to be? Inaction on climate is buy-now, pay-later - and like all credit it costs you more in the end.
"It is our view that a detailed framework for post-2050 reductions and removals is best developed closer to 2050." - wrong. We need action now to avoid disaster in 2050.
www.rnz.co.nz/news/politic...
www.rnz.co.nz/news/politic...
Government rejects all of Climate Change Commission's emissions target recommendations
It comes despite a Climate Change Commission warning that New Zealand is being hit sooner and more severely than expected.
www.rnz.co.nz
December 3, 2025 at 10:30 PM
Their rationale, surprise, is economic cost. Maybe look at what the economic cost of *not* reducing emissions is going to be? Inaction on climate is buy-now, pay-later - and like all credit it costs you more in the end.
Reposted by Michael Plank
Shipping and aviation emissions excluded from NZ’s climate targets – Expert Reaction
Shipping and aviation emissions excluded from NZ's climate targets - Expert Reaction - Science Media Centre
The Government has decided to not include international shipping and aviation emissions in our 2050 target, going against the Climate Change Commission's recommendations. Today's announcement confirms...
www.sciencemediacentre.co.nz
December 4, 2025 at 3:00 AM
Shipping and aviation emissions excluded from NZ’s climate targets – Expert Reaction
Reposted by Michael Plank
Australia's wild flu season continues:
Flu at epidemic levels in New South Wales heading into the first week of summer, sending more people to ED weekly than covid did at any time in 2025.
This is driven by the new subclade-K variant of A/H3N2.
1/
Flu at epidemic levels in New South Wales heading into the first week of summer, sending more people to ED weekly than covid did at any time in 2025.
This is driven by the new subclade-K variant of A/H3N2.
1/
December 4, 2025 at 1:49 AM
Australia's wild flu season continues:
Flu at epidemic levels in New South Wales heading into the first week of summer, sending more people to ED weekly than covid did at any time in 2025.
This is driven by the new subclade-K variant of A/H3N2.
1/
Flu at epidemic levels in New South Wales heading into the first week of summer, sending more people to ED weekly than covid did at any time in 2025.
This is driven by the new subclade-K variant of A/H3N2.
1/
Reposted by Michael Plank
This is interesting from OpenSAFELY. A thorough analysis of associations between COVID and gastrointestinal diseases. I suspect there are similar with other viruses called "respiratory" like RSV but it's harder to do the studies.
The impact of COVID-19 on gastrointestinal diseases in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals: a population-based cohort study in England https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2025.12.01.25341357v1
December 3, 2025 at 6:11 AM
This is interesting from OpenSAFELY. A thorough analysis of associations between COVID and gastrointestinal diseases. I suspect there are similar with other viruses called "respiratory" like RSV but it's harder to do the studies.
Reposted by Michael Plank
A new postdoc position just opened in our group at NAU! We are looking for someone to lead our current forecasting activities and the development of our next generation AI/ML models! Don't hesitate to reach out to me with any questions! careers.nau.edu/jobs/postdoc...
Postdoctoral Scholar - Flagstaff, Arizona, United States
Special Information
This position is an on-site position which requires the incumbent to complete their work primarily at an NAU site, campus, or facility with or without accommodation. Opportunities...
careers.nau.edu
November 4, 2025 at 9:46 PM
A new postdoc position just opened in our group at NAU! We are looking for someone to lead our current forecasting activities and the development of our next generation AI/ML models! Don't hesitate to reach out to me with any questions! careers.nau.edu/jobs/postdoc...
Reposted by Michael Plank
cool confounding and adjustment example by @jofrhwld.bsky.social below. To estimate A –direct–> Y, must adjust for B (and C or D). If you adjust for C, it partly opens collider D, so non-causal path D <– B –> Y is opened. Easy to forget about descendants partly opening parents. Sneaky colliders.
ok, causal inference people: Lets say I have the following DAG. I see the backdoor path through C, so I adjust for C. dagitty says I *also* need to adjust for B, but I'm not sure why since there's a collider along its path?
December 2, 2025 at 7:55 AM
cool confounding and adjustment example by @jofrhwld.bsky.social below. To estimate A –direct–> Y, must adjust for B (and C or D). If you adjust for C, it partly opens collider D, so non-causal path D <– B –> Y is opened. Easy to forget about descendants partly opening parents. Sneaky colliders.
Reposted by Michael Plank
Auckland Uni has responded to my OIA request re consultancy spending in 2024-2025
$600k to PWC and $500k to Nous Group for "strategic design, organisational change, transformation
services" etc
This is roughly what our whole faculty of science spent on internally funded postdocs in the same years
$600k to PWC and $500k to Nous Group for "strategic design, organisational change, transformation
services" etc
This is roughly what our whole faculty of science spent on internally funded postdocs in the same years
What consulting companies is Auckland Uni working with and how much are the companies being paid? - a Official Information Act request to University of Auckland
Could you please provide a list of contracts the University entered into, in 2024 and 2025, with external consulting firms; the topic of the work undertaken (e.g., strategic planning); and the total c...
fyi.org.nz
December 2, 2025 at 4:10 AM
Auckland Uni has responded to my OIA request re consultancy spending in 2024-2025
$600k to PWC and $500k to Nous Group for "strategic design, organisational change, transformation
services" etc
This is roughly what our whole faculty of science spent on internally funded postdocs in the same years
$600k to PWC and $500k to Nous Group for "strategic design, organisational change, transformation
services" etc
This is roughly what our whole faculty of science spent on internally funded postdocs in the same years
Reposted by Michael Plank
This post by @enirenberg.bsky.social is absolutely worth your time. It's not just scicomm, it's poetry. deplatformdisease.substack.com/p/the-cdc-a-...
December 2, 2025 at 2:03 AM
This post by @enirenberg.bsky.social is absolutely worth your time. It's not just scicomm, it's poetry. deplatformdisease.substack.com/p/the-cdc-a-...
Reposted by Michael Plank
Our paper is out in @natcomms.nature.com 🧵
We estimated key epidemiological parameters for scabies, a disease affecting 400M people globally that's been rising across Europe. These are the first estimates of serial interval, R0 and Rt.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
#AcademicSky #EpiSky #IDSky
We estimated key epidemiological parameters for scabies, a disease affecting 400M people globally that's been rising across Europe. These are the first estimates of serial interval, R0 and Rt.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
#AcademicSky #EpiSky #IDSky
Estimation of the epidemiological characteristics of scabies - Nature Communications
Scabies is a common cause of skin disease in many low- and middle-income countries and incidence is increasing in Europe, but key epidemiological parameters are not well defined. Here, the authors use...
www.nature.com
November 28, 2025 at 3:57 AM
Our paper is out in @natcomms.nature.com 🧵
We estimated key epidemiological parameters for scabies, a disease affecting 400M people globally that's been rising across Europe. These are the first estimates of serial interval, R0 and Rt.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
#AcademicSky #EpiSky #IDSky
We estimated key epidemiological parameters for scabies, a disease affecting 400M people globally that's been rising across Europe. These are the first estimates of serial interval, R0 and Rt.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
#AcademicSky #EpiSky #IDSky
Reposted by Michael Plank
Time to publish responsibly: DAFNEE, a database of academia-friendly journals in ecology and evolutionary biology url: academic.oup.com/jeb/article/...
Time to publish responsibly: DAFNEE, a database of academia-friendly journals in ecology and evolutionary biology
Abstract. The current economics of scientific publishing reveal a profound imbalance: academia pays prices far exceeding the actual costs of publication. R
academic.oup.com
November 27, 2025 at 12:44 AM
Time to publish responsibly: DAFNEE, a database of academia-friendly journals in ecology and evolutionary biology url: academic.oup.com/jeb/article/...
Reposted by Michael Plank
The stuff you find when you actually read the RCTs in a systematic review...
This paper is one of the foundational studies on vitamin D to prevent respiratory infections in kids. Cited 1,400 times as per Google Scholar.
This paper is one of the foundational studies on vitamin D to prevent respiratory infections in kids. Cited 1,400 times as per Google Scholar.
November 26, 2025 at 9:15 PM
The stuff you find when you actually read the RCTs in a systematic review...
This paper is one of the foundational studies on vitamin D to prevent respiratory infections in kids. Cited 1,400 times as per Google Scholar.
This paper is one of the foundational studies on vitamin D to prevent respiratory infections in kids. Cited 1,400 times as per Google Scholar.
Reposted by Michael Plank
During the pandemic, non-resident travellers entering the Canadian province of Newfoundland and Labrador were required to complete Travel Declaration Forms. We used these and 3 other travel volume data sources to estimate an 82% decr. in travel royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/... [1/n]
November 26, 2025 at 2:25 AM
During the pandemic, non-resident travellers entering the Canadian province of Newfoundland and Labrador were required to complete Travel Declaration Forms. We used these and 3 other travel volume data sources to estimate an 82% decr. in travel royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/... [1/n]
Interesting model-based analysis of influenza H3N2 K clade dynamics in England this season - fast work!
H3N2 preprint: there are concerns of a severe incoming influenza season due to the drifted H3N2 K clade. We at @psioxford.bsky.social analysed epi data and ran scenario models to see what we could discern about K clade transmission dynamics: zenodo.org/records/1770....
(1/18)
(1/18)
Evaluation of the epidemiological outlook of the influenza A/H3N2 clade K in England during the 2025-26 season
Key findings England is currently experiencing a high growth rate of infections caused by the influenza A/H3N2 K clade. Antigenic change from the previously dominant clade, a rapid selective sweep evi...
zenodo.org
November 26, 2025 at 12:28 AM
Interesting model-based analysis of influenza H3N2 K clade dynamics in England this season - fast work!
Reposted by Michael Plank
I think this is probably right and also a complete disaster. Just an utter unwilligness to learn from what we all collectively went through just a few years ago…
The default pandemic strategy for many countries does now seem to be "Play it by ear then lockdown and wait for a vaccine"
November 24, 2025 at 10:11 PM
I think this is probably right and also a complete disaster. Just an utter unwilligness to learn from what we all collectively went through just a few years ago…
Reposted by Michael Plank
A person in Washington State who kept backyard poultry has died from #H5N5 #flu. The person was the first known infection with this subtype of flu globally & the second recorded death in the US from an #H5 flu virus. Health authorities say there's no evidence the person spread the virus to others.
November 22, 2025 at 2:41 PM
Reposted by Michael Plank
Very interesting perspective! I often have the opposite thought: "Experimenting like a modeller"
Perhaps the two could co-exist for better workflows. Extensive exploration on simulated data should be the norm before running experiments to make sure the design is capable of the intended inference.
Perhaps the two could co-exist for better workflows. Extensive exploration on simulated data should be the norm before running experiments to make sure the design is capable of the intended inference.
"Validate With Simulated Truth: A first habit is to test whether an analytical pipeline can recover known conditions."
Very good advice below. So much COVID nonsense (e.g. 'immunological dark matter') basically came down to a non-identifiable model that hadn't been properly tested.
Very good advice below. So much COVID nonsense (e.g. 'immunological dark matter') basically came down to a non-identifiable model that hadn't been properly tested.
Modelling Like an Experimentalist
Dahlin et al. (2024) apply experimental thinking to a model of mosquito-borne disease transmissions.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
November 10, 2025 at 4:02 PM
Very interesting perspective! I often have the opposite thought: "Experimenting like a modeller"
Perhaps the two could co-exist for better workflows. Extensive exploration on simulated data should be the norm before running experiments to make sure the design is capable of the intended inference.
Perhaps the two could co-exist for better workflows. Extensive exploration on simulated data should be the norm before running experiments to make sure the design is capable of the intended inference.