Michael Plank
@michaelplanknz.bsky.social
Professor of Applied Mathematics at the University of Canterbury, NZ. Fellow @royalsocietynz.bsky.social. Math modelling in biology and epidemiology. Bicycles make the world a better place. He/him
https://www.math.canterbury.ac.nz/~m.plank/
https://www.math.canterbury.ac.nz/~m.plank/
Pinned
Michael Plank
@michaelplanknz.bsky.social
· Jan 16
Modelling the interaction between ethnicity and infectious disease dynamics at University of Canterbury on FindAPhD.com
PhD Project - Modelling the interaction between ethnicity and infectious disease dynamics at University of Canterbury, listed on FindAPhD.com
www.findaphd.com
We are advertising two PhD scholarships to work on models of the interaction between ethnicity and infectious disease dynamics at the University of Canterbury in New Zealand.
Open to international students.
Please share!
www.findaphd.com/phds/project...
@iddjobs.bsky.social
Open to international students.
Please share!
www.findaphd.com/phds/project...
@iddjobs.bsky.social
Reposted by Michael Plank
Canada has lost its measles elimination status...a sad milestone.
Now is the time to double down on lowering barriers to routine childhood immunizations and ensuring Canadians have access to credible, science-based information.
Link: tinyurl.com/c8nfxvk3
Now is the time to double down on lowering barriers to routine childhood immunizations and ensuring Canadians have access to credible, science-based information.
Link: tinyurl.com/c8nfxvk3
November 10, 2025 at 2:20 PM
Canada has lost its measles elimination status...a sad milestone.
Now is the time to double down on lowering barriers to routine childhood immunizations and ensuring Canadians have access to credible, science-based information.
Link: tinyurl.com/c8nfxvk3
Now is the time to double down on lowering barriers to routine childhood immunizations and ensuring Canadians have access to credible, science-based information.
Link: tinyurl.com/c8nfxvk3
Reposted by Michael Plank
As expected, Canada has lost its measles-free status because of the long-running outbreak there. With it goes the #measles elimination status of the entire zone of the Americas, the only division of the #WHO to ever have achieved measles elimination. www.statnews.com/2025/11/10/m...
Canada loses measles elimination status — as does the entire Americas region
Canada has formally lost its measles elimination status, the country’s public health agency announced, triggering the loss of that status throughout all of the Americas.
www.statnews.com
November 10, 2025 at 2:49 PM
As expected, Canada has lost its measles-free status because of the long-running outbreak there. With it goes the #measles elimination status of the entire zone of the Americas, the only division of the #WHO to ever have achieved measles elimination. www.statnews.com/2025/11/10/m...
Reposted by Michael Plank
Liked this: "In conclusion, thinking about modelling as experimentation does not cage creativity; it structures it, giving us better tools to ask sharper questions, present clearer answers and build cumulative science."
November 10, 2025 at 4:23 PM
Liked this: "In conclusion, thinking about modelling as experimentation does not cage creativity; it structures it, giving us better tools to ask sharper questions, present clearer answers and build cumulative science."
"Universities teach us to ask questions without tidy answers. They train us to look for truths we didn’t know existed and to challenge assumptions we didn’t realise we held. At their best, they remind us that intellect isn’t about having opinions, it’s about earning them."
November 10, 2025 at 7:38 AM
"Universities teach us to ask questions without tidy answers. They train us to look for truths we didn’t know existed and to challenge assumptions we didn’t realise we held. At their best, they remind us that intellect isn’t about having opinions, it’s about earning them."
Reposted by Michael Plank
This, from OUSA's President, is very good and warrants reading:
"For decades, governments of every stripe have treated universities as businesses to be managed rather than institutions of learning and curiosity. ... Students are rebranded as customers, research, degrees and graduates as outputs."
"For decades, governments of every stripe have treated universities as businesses to be managed rather than institutions of learning and curiosity. ... Students are rebranded as customers, research, degrees and graduates as outputs."
November 9, 2025 at 11:01 PM
This, from OUSA's President, is very good and warrants reading:
"For decades, governments of every stripe have treated universities as businesses to be managed rather than institutions of learning and curiosity. ... Students are rebranded as customers, research, degrees and graduates as outputs."
"For decades, governments of every stripe have treated universities as businesses to be managed rather than institutions of learning and curiosity. ... Students are rebranded as customers, research, degrees and graduates as outputs."
Reposted by Michael Plank
"Validate With Simulated Truth: A first habit is to test whether an analytical pipeline can recover known conditions."
Very good advice below. So much COVID nonsense (e.g. 'immunological dark matter') basically came down to a non-identifiable model that hadn't been properly tested.
Very good advice below. So much COVID nonsense (e.g. 'immunological dark matter') basically came down to a non-identifiable model that hadn't been properly tested.
Modelling Like an Experimentalist
Dahlin et al. (2024) apply experimental thinking to a model of mosquito-borne disease transmissions.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
November 9, 2025 at 9:18 PM
"Validate With Simulated Truth: A first habit is to test whether an analytical pipeline can recover known conditions."
Very good advice below. So much COVID nonsense (e.g. 'immunological dark matter') basically came down to a non-identifiable model that hadn't been properly tested.
Very good advice below. So much COVID nonsense (e.g. 'immunological dark matter') basically came down to a non-identifiable model that hadn't been properly tested.
Reposted by Michael Plank
WellKiwis has wrapped up their respiratory virus surveillance this year in Wellington, NZ.
During 31 Mar - 19 Oct 2025, they detected:
2,328 identified single viruses (some samples had >1)
of which:
191 (8.2%) were SARS-CoV-2
382 (16.4%) were influenza
➡️Twice as many flu as covid detections!
1/
During 31 Mar - 19 Oct 2025, they detected:
2,328 identified single viruses (some samples had >1)
of which:
191 (8.2%) were SARS-CoV-2
382 (16.4%) were influenza
➡️Twice as many flu as covid detections!
1/
November 10, 2025 at 6:47 AM
WellKiwis has wrapped up their respiratory virus surveillance this year in Wellington, NZ.
During 31 Mar - 19 Oct 2025, they detected:
2,328 identified single viruses (some samples had >1)
of which:
191 (8.2%) were SARS-CoV-2
382 (16.4%) were influenza
➡️Twice as many flu as covid detections!
1/
During 31 Mar - 19 Oct 2025, they detected:
2,328 identified single viruses (some samples had >1)
of which:
191 (8.2%) were SARS-CoV-2
382 (16.4%) were influenza
➡️Twice as many flu as covid detections!
1/
Reposted by Michael Plank
There are some interesting bits of information in here.
Clearly the numbers reflect both incidence and severity.
In ages 5-9, flu detections outnumber covid by a factor of 12 (😮)
In ages 70+, they are approximately equal.
Clearly the numbers reflect both incidence and severity.
In ages 5-9, flu detections outnumber covid by a factor of 12 (😮)
In ages 70+, they are approximately equal.
November 9, 2025 at 1:24 AM
There are some interesting bits of information in here.
Clearly the numbers reflect both incidence and severity.
In ages 5-9, flu detections outnumber covid by a factor of 12 (😮)
In ages 70+, they are approximately equal.
Clearly the numbers reflect both incidence and severity.
In ages 5-9, flu detections outnumber covid by a factor of 12 (😮)
In ages 70+, they are approximately equal.
Reposted by Michael Plank
Its taken a while, but a summary of our "enhanced surveillance" for HPAI that we undertook last spring is now on bioRxiv. Lots of cool LPAI viruses in arriving shorebirds, but no HPAI.
👉 www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...
👉 www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...
November 7, 2025 at 2:48 AM
Its taken a while, but a summary of our "enhanced surveillance" for HPAI that we undertook last spring is now on bioRxiv. Lots of cool LPAI viruses in arriving shorebirds, but no HPAI.
👉 www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...
👉 www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...
Reposted by Michael Plank
BusinessDesk has a fantastic (and rare) for a data journalist in New Zealand. The Herald and BusinessDesk are separate publications, but whoever is in this role will work with me on projects like Budget day visualisations 1/2
careers.nzme.co.nz/jobs/6697721...
careers.nzme.co.nz/jobs/6697721...
Data Journalist - BusinessDesk - NZME
Join BusinessDesk as a Data Journalist—break market-moving stories, visualise insights, and set the global benchmark for data-driven reporting.
careers.nzme.co.nz
November 5, 2025 at 8:41 PM
BusinessDesk has a fantastic (and rare) for a data journalist in New Zealand. The Herald and BusinessDesk are separate publications, but whoever is in this role will work with me on projects like Budget day visualisations 1/2
careers.nzme.co.nz/jobs/6697721...
careers.nzme.co.nz/jobs/6697721...
Reposted by Michael Plank
I'm sure it's totally coincidental that the AoNZ government's changes to the Marsden Fund have been followed by successful applications led by female investigators dropping from 55% to 33%, and successful applications led by Māori investigators dropping from 13% to 5%. 🫠 🧪
Information on the 2025 Marsden Fund round
Information about the number of funded proposals in the 2025 Marsden Fund round broken down by research area and institution, also including gender and ethnicity data
www.royalsociety.org.nz
November 5, 2025 at 9:16 PM
I'm sure it's totally coincidental that the AoNZ government's changes to the Marsden Fund have been followed by successful applications led by female investigators dropping from 55% to 33%, and successful applications led by Māori investigators dropping from 13% to 5%. 🫠 🧪
Reposted by Michael Plank
Bills to create the most important #PublicHealth infrastructure in decades has today passed the Senate.
"Thanks to the many people who’ve put in hard work and long nights, showing it’s a long way to the top to get a Centre for Disease Control," our CEO, Adj Prof Terry Slevin.
shorturl.at/jNCZD
"Thanks to the many people who’ve put in hard work and long nights, showing it’s a long way to the top to get a Centre for Disease Control," our CEO, Adj Prof Terry Slevin.
shorturl.at/jNCZD
November 5, 2025 at 3:43 AM
Bills to create the most important #PublicHealth infrastructure in decades has today passed the Senate.
"Thanks to the many people who’ve put in hard work and long nights, showing it’s a long way to the top to get a Centre for Disease Control," our CEO, Adj Prof Terry Slevin.
shorturl.at/jNCZD
"Thanks to the many people who’ve put in hard work and long nights, showing it’s a long way to the top to get a Centre for Disease Control," our CEO, Adj Prof Terry Slevin.
shorturl.at/jNCZD
Reposted by Michael Plank
A list of all successful 2025 #MarsdenFund projects can be found below. Congratulations to all of the funded researchers!
www.royalsociety.org.nz/what-we-do/f...
www.royalsociety.org.nz/what-we-do/f...
Marsden Fund Awards 2025
Published on 6 Whiringa-ā-rangi November 2025
You can download an Excel spreadsheet of these results here: 2025-Marsden Fund Supplement
The definitions of the 8 Marsden Fund panels can be found here...
www.royalsociety.org.nz
November 5, 2025 at 1:45 AM
A list of all successful 2025 #MarsdenFund projects can be found below. Congratulations to all of the funded researchers!
www.royalsociety.org.nz/what-we-do/f...
www.royalsociety.org.nz/what-we-do/f...
Reprehensible behavior. Anyone pushing this kind of malicious disinformation should be utterly ashamed
In the midst of a measles outbreak Voices for Freedom has gleefully interviewed Andrew Wakefield, the disgraced doctor behind the fraudulent study connecting the measles vaccine to autism.
November 5, 2025 at 6:30 AM
Reprehensible behavior. Anyone pushing this kind of malicious disinformation should be utterly ashamed
Reposted by Michael Plank
NZ’s climate law to change – Expert Reaction
NZ's climate law to change - Expert Reaction - Science Media Centre
Among several changes announced last night, the Government says the Climate Change Commission won't be required to advise on emissions reduction plans. The Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) will also be...
www.sciencemediacentre.co.nz
November 5, 2025 at 1:00 AM
NZ’s climate law to change – Expert Reaction
Reposted by Michael Plank
Happy to share our @natcomms.nature.com paper 📢 “Natural immune boosting biases pertussis infection estimates in seroprevalence studies.” nature.com/articles/s41...
Read the🧵 to find out more! (1/6)
Read the🧵 to find out more! (1/6)
Natural immune boosting biases pertussis infection estimates in seroprevalence studies - Nature Communications
Estimating rates of pertussis infections is challenging due to the large proportion of asymptomatic infections and lack of a reliable serological correlate of protection. Here, the authors develop a t...
nature.com
October 23, 2025 at 4:19 PM
Happy to share our @natcomms.nature.com paper 📢 “Natural immune boosting biases pertussis infection estimates in seroprevalence studies.” nature.com/articles/s41...
Read the🧵 to find out more! (1/6)
Read the🧵 to find out more! (1/6)
Reposted by Michael Plank
Headlines are saying that COVID-19 and flu TRIPLE your risk of heart attack. This is just a painful story about pretty weak science.
If nothing else, the "triple" risk is only over the first 14 days post-infection and declines enormously after that!
1/n
If nothing else, the "triple" risk is only over the first 14 days post-infection and declines enormously after that!
1/n
November 3, 2025 at 4:45 AM
Headlines are saying that COVID-19 and flu TRIPLE your risk of heart attack. This is just a painful story about pretty weak science.
If nothing else, the "triple" risk is only over the first 14 days post-infection and declines enormously after that!
1/n
If nothing else, the "triple" risk is only over the first 14 days post-infection and declines enormously after that!
1/n
Reposted by Michael Plank
Exciting day today. Not only is it Halloween, but my crowdfunding campaign is also live! Please support me by making a pledge and/or sharing on all your socials and with your friends, family, and colleagues. Thanks to everyone offering rewards. You rock! www.pledgeme.co.nz/projects/852...
Support Dr Siouxsie After She Supported Us! | PledgeMe
Support Dr Siouxsie to recover some of the money she spent fighting her legal case to protect employees experiencing online abuse
www.pledgeme.co.nz
October 30, 2025 at 6:57 PM
Exciting day today. Not only is it Halloween, but my crowdfunding campaign is also live! Please support me by making a pledge and/or sharing on all your socials and with your friends, family, and colleagues. Thanks to everyone offering rewards. You rock! www.pledgeme.co.nz/projects/852...
Reposted by Michael Plank
As a reward for supporting @siouxsiew.bsky.social I've donated 6 signed copies of #TheCovidResponse. And if you want to know how important Siouxsie's case was for academic freedom in Aotearoa, I've written a piece for the NZSR on what I think it means: ojs.victoria.ac.nz/nzsr/article...
October 31, 2025 at 1:09 AM
As a reward for supporting @siouxsiew.bsky.social I've donated 6 signed copies of #TheCovidResponse. And if you want to know how important Siouxsie's case was for academic freedom in Aotearoa, I've written a piece for the NZSR on what I think it means: ojs.victoria.ac.nz/nzsr/article...
Reposted by Michael Plank
Important study in Science today.
Infectious disease suppressed during pandemic did rebound afterwards (due to immunity debt) but, the net impact was negative (net disease burden reduced).
➡️Avoiding infectious disease is a good thing!
1/
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
Infectious disease suppressed during pandemic did rebound afterwards (due to immunity debt) but, the net impact was negative (net disease burden reduced).
➡️Avoiding infectious disease is a good thing!
1/
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
Collateral effects of COVID-19 pandemic control on the US infectious disease landscape
Using data from the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) disease surveillance systems, we sought to quantify the indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the possibilit...
www.science.org
October 31, 2025 at 1:09 AM
Important study in Science today.
Infectious disease suppressed during pandemic did rebound afterwards (due to immunity debt) but, the net impact was negative (net disease burden reduced).
➡️Avoiding infectious disease is a good thing!
1/
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
Infectious disease suppressed during pandemic did rebound afterwards (due to immunity debt) but, the net impact was negative (net disease burden reduced).
➡️Avoiding infectious disease is a good thing!
1/
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
Reposted by Michael Plank
NZ electricity reached 99.9% renewable on 25 October, I believe that is a record. And that's despite a tenth of geothermal capacity appearing to be out of action (maintenance?) since the start of October. Source: em6
October 31, 2025 at 3:46 AM
NZ electricity reached 99.9% renewable on 25 October, I believe that is a record. And that's despite a tenth of geothermal capacity appearing to be out of action (maintenance?) since the start of October. Source: em6
Reposted by Michael Plank
Excellent article on one of the most common misconceptions about mathematical models.
"If a modelling analysis is informing decisions, it’s not that useful for the model to try and predict the decision it’s informing."
"If a modelling analysis is informing decisions, it’s not that useful for the model to try and predict the decision it’s informing."
New post on poker, decision-support tools and why people conflate epidemic scenarios with forecasts: kucharski.substack.com/p/why-do-peo...
October 30, 2025 at 1:25 AM
Excellent article on one of the most common misconceptions about mathematical models.
"If a modelling analysis is informing decisions, it’s not that useful for the model to try and predict the decision it’s informing."
"If a modelling analysis is informing decisions, it’s not that useful for the model to try and predict the decision it’s informing."
Reposted by Michael Plank
What you should know ahead of Measles Immunisation Week – Expert Reaction
What you should know ahead of Measles Immunisation Week - Expert Reaction - Science Media Centre
With measles spreading in the community and vaccination coverage too low to stop it, a national immunisation week starting on Monday aims to raise vaccination rates. Immunisation coverage of 95% is...
www.sciencemediacentre.co.nz
October 30, 2025 at 3:00 AM
What you should know ahead of Measles Immunisation Week – Expert Reaction
Excellent article on one of the most common misconceptions about mathematical models.
"If a modelling analysis is informing decisions, it’s not that useful for the model to try and predict the decision it’s informing."
"If a modelling analysis is informing decisions, it’s not that useful for the model to try and predict the decision it’s informing."
New post on poker, decision-support tools and why people conflate epidemic scenarios with forecasts: kucharski.substack.com/p/why-do-peo...
October 30, 2025 at 1:25 AM
Excellent article on one of the most common misconceptions about mathematical models.
"If a modelling analysis is informing decisions, it’s not that useful for the model to try and predict the decision it’s informing."
"If a modelling analysis is informing decisions, it’s not that useful for the model to try and predict the decision it’s informing."
Reposted by Michael Plank
JOB: Postdoctoral Research Associate to work on the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 using a very large dataset of more than 120,000 viral genomes generated as part of the ONS Covid Survey in Prof Katrina Lythgoe's Ecology and Evolution of Viruses Research Group.
my.corehr.com/pls/uoxrecru...
my.corehr.com/pls/uoxrecru...
Job Details
my.corehr.com
October 28, 2025 at 3:34 PM
JOB: Postdoctoral Research Associate to work on the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 using a very large dataset of more than 120,000 viral genomes generated as part of the ONS Covid Survey in Prof Katrina Lythgoe's Ecology and Evolution of Viruses Research Group.
my.corehr.com/pls/uoxrecru...
my.corehr.com/pls/uoxrecru...