Michael Plank
@michaelplanknz.bsky.social
Professor of Applied Mathematics at the University of Canterbury, NZ. Fellow @royalsocietynz.bsky.social. Math modelling in biology and epidemiology. Bicycles make the world a better place. He/him
https://www.math.canterbury.ac.nz/~m.plank/
https://www.math.canterbury.ac.nz/~m.plank/
What could possibly go wrong?
New: The government has introduced legislation to abolish the Ministry for the Environment as part of its plans to build a new super-agency tasked with urban development, planning, infrastructure and transport.
newsroom.co.nz/2026/02/17/g...
newsroom.co.nz/2026/02/17/g...
Govt to disband environment ministry as part of agency merger
The environment department will be abolished and folded into a new super-ministry for cities, environment, regions and transport.
newsroom.co.nz
February 17, 2026 at 8:04 AM
What could possibly go wrong?
"With user-pleasing AI agents getting faster at tasks – and potentially subject to less user scrutiny – there’s more need for statistical thinking than ever"
New post on the era of the statisticAIn... kucharski.substack.com/p/the-era-of...
February 17, 2026 at 6:05 AM
"With user-pleasing AI agents getting faster at tasks – and potentially subject to less user scrutiny – there’s more need for statistical thinking than ever"
Reposted by Michael Plank
I think news stories like this have been so frequent over the last six years that it's now "common knowledge" that covid ages your internal organs.
But, it's simply not true.
1/
But, it's simply not true.
1/
February 14, 2026 at 4:23 AM
I think news stories like this have been so frequent over the last six years that it's now "common knowledge" that covid ages your internal organs.
But, it's simply not true.
1/
But, it's simply not true.
1/
Reposted by Michael Plank
An example of how impacts of interventions can differ at individual and population levels, and are conditional on other events. Given a car hits you, the helmet helps. But mandating helmets could lower the # of bikes on the road & thus might increase the chance of getting hit in the first place.
This is counter-intuitive:
"It is clear that the benefits of cycling outweigh the risks, with helmet legislation actually costing society more from lost health gains than saved from injury prevention." theconversation.com/ditching-bik...
"It is clear that the benefits of cycling outweigh the risks, with helmet legislation actually costing society more from lost health gains than saved from injury prevention." theconversation.com/ditching-bik...
Ditching bike helmets laws better for health
With epidemics of diabetes and obesity threatening to bankrupt state health budgets, governments need to broaden their strategies to encourage physical activity. Allowing cyclists to ride without a he...
theconversation.com
February 5, 2026 at 2:55 PM
An example of how impacts of interventions can differ at individual and population levels, and are conditional on other events. Given a car hits you, the helmet helps. But mandating helmets could lower the # of bikes on the road & thus might increase the chance of getting hit in the first place.
Reposted by Michael Plank
New Preprint! We look at HIV transmission outside of and within stable partnerships. It turns out that the pair model can have many useful results derived analytically in closed form, and the general numerical methodology should be useful in other contexts.
arxiv.org/abs/2602.04638
arxiv.org/abs/2602.04638
Inference for Within- and Between-Partnership Transmission Rates for HIV Infection
HIV transmission within serodiscordant couples remains a significant public health challenge, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Estimating the rate of such infection, alongside the rates of introduc...
arxiv.org
February 5, 2026 at 1:50 PM
New Preprint! We look at HIV transmission outside of and within stable partnerships. It turns out that the pair model can have many useful results derived analytically in closed form, and the general numerical methodology should be useful in other contexts.
arxiv.org/abs/2602.04638
arxiv.org/abs/2602.04638
Reposted by Michael Plank
Trump’s $12B bet — Project Vault — on which minerals will be of future technological importance aims to provide certainty to industry.
But does it risk locking us in to the status quo, when materials discovery is the one field I can say will genuinely be disrupted by quantum computing and AI… 🤔
But does it risk locking us in to the status quo, when materials discovery is the one field I can say will genuinely be disrupted by quantum computing and AI… 🤔
NZ’s critical minerals on the world stage – Expert Reaction
NZ's critical minerals on the world stage - Expert Reaction - Science Media Centre
New Zealand is attending international talks in the US this week about a strategic alliance on critical minerals. Earlier in the week, the US announced a stockpile of rare earth elements, and plans...
www.sciencemediacentre.co.nz
February 5, 2026 at 3:59 AM
Trump’s $12B bet — Project Vault — on which minerals will be of future technological importance aims to provide certainty to industry.
But does it risk locking us in to the status quo, when materials discovery is the one field I can say will genuinely be disrupted by quantum computing and AI… 🤔
But does it risk locking us in to the status quo, when materials discovery is the one field I can say will genuinely be disrupted by quantum computing and AI… 🤔
Reposted by Michael Plank
Landing in Dunedin Aotearoa in about 90 minutes for the start of a trip that represents the culmination of a dream I’ve had since I was ten years old.
Visiting academic to address spread of misinformation
For Carl Bergstrom, misinformation is like a living organism — it can travel across networks and spread through populations like pathogens. The...
www.odt.co.nz
February 4, 2026 at 11:43 PM
Landing in Dunedin Aotearoa in about 90 minutes for the start of a trip that represents the culmination of a dream I’ve had since I was ten years old.
Petition to replace electric heaters with in-house servers that can, in cold weather, be put at the disposal of tech giants for reasonable rates. Free heating and less power demand - win win!
From a thermodynamic point of view, I know that an electric heater cannot be consuming any more or less energy than a computer network that does billions of calculations, runs a large language model, and as a by-product gives out that same amount of heat. But can I still find it extraordinary.
February 4, 2026 at 6:55 AM
Petition to replace electric heaters with in-house servers that can, in cold weather, be put at the disposal of tech giants for reasonable rates. Free heating and less power demand - win win!
Reposted by Michael Plank
Reposted by Michael Plank
Pleased to say that Carl Bergstrom (@carlbergstrom.com) will be speaking at the University of Canterbury on 13th Feb!
He is hosted by @tepunahamatatini.bsky.social come see him at noon in Jack Erskine 441!
He is hosted by @tepunahamatatini.bsky.social come see him at noon in Jack Erskine 441!
February 2, 2026 at 12:52 AM
Pleased to say that Carl Bergstrom (@carlbergstrom.com) will be speaking at the University of Canterbury on 13th Feb!
He is hosted by @tepunahamatatini.bsky.social come see him at noon in Jack Erskine 441!
He is hosted by @tepunahamatatini.bsky.social come see him at noon in Jack Erskine 441!
Reposted by Michael Plank
Pretty extraordinary to think about how much cardiovascular researchers figured out, and how that turned into public health campaigns, medicines, surgeries, and emergency care that changed millions of people's lives.
ourworldindata.org/cardiovascul...
ourworldindata.org/cardiovascul...
January 31, 2026 at 2:54 PM
Pretty extraordinary to think about how much cardiovascular researchers figured out, and how that turned into public health campaigns, medicines, surgeries, and emergency care that changed millions of people's lives.
ourworldindata.org/cardiovascul...
ourworldindata.org/cardiovascul...
Reposted by Michael Plank
Just a few months ago, a child in the US developed the most feared complication of measles (subacute sclerosing panencephalitis) from an infection they had years ago when they were too young to be vaccinated. I hate to think about what is being unleashed by this virus as a future tragedy.
January 31, 2026 at 4:03 PM
Just a few months ago, a child in the US developed the most feared complication of measles (subacute sclerosing panencephalitis) from an infection they had years ago when they were too young to be vaccinated. I hate to think about what is being unleashed by this virus as a future tragedy.
Reposted by Michael Plank
Very happy to have had the opportunity to contribute to this work. Thanks to Robin Thompson for leading, the amazing team of co-authors and the INI for hosting us.
New paper! "Infectious disease outbreak controllability: biological, social and public health factors" - we provide a modelling-informed discussion of what 'controllability' means for an infectious disease outbreak.
royalsocietypublishing.org/rspb/article...
royalsocietypublishing.org/rspb/article...
Infectious disease outbreak controllability: biological, social and public health factors
Abstract. Early in an infectious disease outbreak, key policy questions include whether and how the outbreak can be brought under control. In the epidemiol
royalsocietypublishing.org
January 29, 2026 at 12:19 AM
Very happy to have had the opportunity to contribute to this work. Thanks to Robin Thompson for leading, the amazing team of co-authors and the INI for hosting us.
Reposted by Michael Plank
Missed this in the end of year rush - Vincent Lomas's first paper from his PhD looks at modelling Covid-19 transmission dynamics in different ethnicity groups in Aotearoa New Zealand
Wrapping up MMLS Volume 2, a modelling study of interactions between ethnicity and transmission dynamics in the first Omicron wave in Aotearoa New Zealand: doi.org/10.1080/2993...
Modelling the interaction between ethnicity and infectious disease transmission dynamics in Aotearoa New Zealand during the first Omicron wave of the COVID-19 pandemic
During the COVID-19 pandemic, Aotearoa followed an elimination strategy followed by a mitigation strategy, which saw high success and kept health impact low. However, there were inequities in healt...
doi.org
January 29, 2026 at 12:13 AM
Missed this in the end of year rush - Vincent Lomas's first paper from his PhD looks at modelling Covid-19 transmission dynamics in different ethnicity groups in Aotearoa New Zealand
Reposted by Michael Plank
Jew in Amsterdam here. Please use Anne Frank as a comparison point to explain how state persecution of scapegoats impacts children, that is the point of her example, thanks
The Minnesota governor is getting widespread criticism for comparing children dealing with immigration enforcement to Holocaust victim Anne Frank.
Tim Walz condemned for comparing Minnesota children to Anne Frank
The Minnesota governor is getting widespread criticism for comparing children dealing with immigration enforcement to Holocaust victim Anne Frank.
bit.ly
January 28, 2026 at 8:10 AM
Jew in Amsterdam here. Please use Anne Frank as a comparison point to explain how state persecution of scapegoats impacts children, that is the point of her example, thanks
Reposted by Michael Plank
And some wonder how a hard-to-transmit camel cold virus keeps popping up in humans in the Arabian Peninsula.
A picture tells a thousand words.
A picture tells a thousand words.
Camel milk is in hot demand in the wellness industry, now one Queensland farmer is seizing the moment.
US wellness industry demand for camel milk a win for Queensland farm
Camel milk is in hot demand in the wellness industry, now one Queensland farmer is seizing the moment.
www.abc.net.au
January 29, 2026 at 7:02 AM
And some wonder how a hard-to-transmit camel cold virus keeps popping up in humans in the Arabian Peninsula.
A picture tells a thousand words.
A picture tells a thousand words.
Very happy to have had the opportunity to contribute to this work. Thanks to Robin Thompson for leading, the amazing team of co-authors and the INI for hosting us.
New paper! "Infectious disease outbreak controllability: biological, social and public health factors" - we provide a modelling-informed discussion of what 'controllability' means for an infectious disease outbreak.
royalsocietypublishing.org/rspb/article...
royalsocietypublishing.org/rspb/article...
Infectious disease outbreak controllability: biological, social and public health factors
Abstract. Early in an infectious disease outbreak, key policy questions include whether and how the outbreak can be brought under control. In the epidemiol
royalsocietypublishing.org
January 29, 2026 at 12:19 AM
Very happy to have had the opportunity to contribute to this work. Thanks to Robin Thompson for leading, the amazing team of co-authors and the INI for hosting us.
Missed this in the end of year rush - Vincent Lomas's first paper from his PhD looks at modelling Covid-19 transmission dynamics in different ethnicity groups in Aotearoa New Zealand
Wrapping up MMLS Volume 2, a modelling study of interactions between ethnicity and transmission dynamics in the first Omicron wave in Aotearoa New Zealand: doi.org/10.1080/2993...
Modelling the interaction between ethnicity and infectious disease transmission dynamics in Aotearoa New Zealand during the first Omicron wave of the COVID-19 pandemic
During the COVID-19 pandemic, Aotearoa followed an elimination strategy followed by a mitigation strategy, which saw high success and kept health impact low. However, there were inequities in healt...
doi.org
January 29, 2026 at 12:13 AM
Missed this in the end of year rush - Vincent Lomas's first paper from his PhD looks at modelling Covid-19 transmission dynamics in different ethnicity groups in Aotearoa New Zealand
Reposted by Michael Plank
New paper! "Infectious disease outbreak controllability: biological, social and public health factors" - we provide a modelling-informed discussion of what 'controllability' means for an infectious disease outbreak.
royalsocietypublishing.org/rspb/article...
royalsocietypublishing.org/rspb/article...
Infectious disease outbreak controllability: biological, social and public health factors
Abstract. Early in an infectious disease outbreak, key policy questions include whether and how the outbreak can be brought under control. In the epidemiol
royalsocietypublishing.org
January 28, 2026 at 5:32 PM
New paper! "Infectious disease outbreak controllability: biological, social and public health factors" - we provide a modelling-informed discussion of what 'controllability' means for an infectious disease outbreak.
royalsocietypublishing.org/rspb/article...
royalsocietypublishing.org/rspb/article...
Reposted by Michael Plank
Evergreen reminder that this was something she came up with, not something she was advised to do. In fact she was pretty specifically advised it was a terrible idea (it was) but she went ahead with it anyway because something something Not Real Science
Slashing all Marsden grants to social science and humanities another Judith Collins legacy www.rnz.co.nz/news/nationa...
Government's Marsden Fund cuts: All humanities, social sciences research funding slashed
Cutting all research funding for the fields is a massive step backwards, critics say.
www.rnz.co.nz
January 28, 2026 at 1:59 AM
Evergreen reminder that this was something she came up with, not something she was advised to do. In fact she was pretty specifically advised it was a terrible idea (it was) but she went ahead with it anyway because something something Not Real Science
Reposted by Michael Plank
These are my favorite kind of modeling studies. A lot of people want models to precisely predict the future, but the best models help give us a framework for understanding what we are observing in real time, which in turn can inform expectations about potential future outcomes.
In a new preprint, we combine modeling with school-level vaccine data to contextualize the risk of 'breakthrough infections' and impacts on the ongoing US measles outbreak. #idsky #episky
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.6...
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.6...
Interpreting Breakthrough Infections Given Assortative Mixing of Partially Vaccinated Populations
Declining vaccine coverage across the United States has increased the risk of outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases. Even when vaccines have low primary failure rates, conventional epidemic theory...
www.medrxiv.org
January 27, 2026 at 3:04 PM
These are my favorite kind of modeling studies. A lot of people want models to precisely predict the future, but the best models help give us a framework for understanding what we are observing in real time, which in turn can inform expectations about potential future outcomes.
Reposted by Michael Plank
In a new preprint, we combine modeling with school-level vaccine data to contextualize the risk of 'breakthrough infections' and impacts on the ongoing US measles outbreak. #idsky #episky
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.6...
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.6...
Interpreting Breakthrough Infections Given Assortative Mixing of Partially Vaccinated Populations
Declining vaccine coverage across the United States has increased the risk of outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases. Even when vaccines have low primary failure rates, conventional epidemic theory...
www.medrxiv.org
January 27, 2026 at 2:34 PM
In a new preprint, we combine modeling with school-level vaccine data to contextualize the risk of 'breakthrough infections' and impacts on the ongoing US measles outbreak. #idsky #episky
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.6...
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.6...
Reposted by Michael Plank
3. And to do that, you want to *understand* and *justify* every step along the way (at least until you reach one of Latour's Black Boxes) because your end product is a theory, model, or explanation. You can't readily just hit RUN and see if it sorta works.
January 27, 2026 at 10:15 PM
3. And to do that, you want to *understand* and *justify* every step along the way (at least until you reach one of Latour's Black Boxes) because your end product is a theory, model, or explanation. You can't readily just hit RUN and see if it sorta works.
Reposted by Michael Plank
1. The thing about science that these jokers don't understand is that science cannot be vibe-coded.
Whatever its flaws, the point with vibe coding is that you're trying to quickly make something that sorta works, where you can immediately sorta see if it sorta works and then sorta use it.
Whatever its flaws, the point with vibe coding is that you're trying to quickly make something that sorta works, where you can immediately sorta see if it sorta works and then sorta use it.
“The idea is to put ChatGPT front and center inside software that scientists use to write up their work in much the same way that chatbots are now embedded into popular programming editors.
It’s vibe coding, but for science.”
It’s vibe coding, but for science.”
OpenAI’s latest product lets you vibe code science
Prism is a ChatGPT-powered text editor that automates much of the work involved in writing scientific papers.
www.technologyreview.com
January 27, 2026 at 10:09 PM
1. The thing about science that these jokers don't understand is that science cannot be vibe-coded.
Whatever its flaws, the point with vibe coding is that you're trying to quickly make something that sorta works, where you can immediately sorta see if it sorta works and then sorta use it.
Whatever its flaws, the point with vibe coding is that you're trying to quickly make something that sorta works, where you can immediately sorta see if it sorta works and then sorta use it.
Reposted by Michael Plank
Te Pūnaha Matatini is bringing acclaimed evolutionary biologist and science system researcher @carlbergstrom.com to New Zealand in February 2026 for a series of public engagements, including a keynote address at the Capital City Complex Systems Symposium → www.tepunahamatatini.ac.nz/posts/carl-b...
Carl Bergstrom to visit New Zealand amid major shifts in science policy
Te Pūnaha Matatini is bringing acclaimed evolutionary biologist and science system researcher Professor Carl Bergstrom to New Zealand.
www.tepunahamatatini.ac.nz
January 22, 2026 at 3:06 AM
Te Pūnaha Matatini is bringing acclaimed evolutionary biologist and science system researcher @carlbergstrom.com to New Zealand in February 2026 for a series of public engagements, including a keynote address at the Capital City Complex Systems Symposium → www.tepunahamatatini.ac.nz/posts/carl-b...