Charting a course out of the #trade crisis -- longform essay of mine published today by @brookings.edu that proposes a more effective and less risky way to rebalance the #worldeconomy by directly addressing the fundamental drivers of big imbalances:
www.brookings.edu/articles/reb...

Couldn’t agree with this more. Musk will further privatize space, and this will make the poor even poorer. Building a social contract where the third class, all locked up, sinks with the Titanic.

Brad Setser:

"China, cars, capacity and the possibility that China could come to dominate a new sector of the global economy ...

A new blog"

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www.cfr.org/blog/will-ch...

“Sinope”. I see Sino and Nope. No China? 😅

With this man at the helm, SpaceX will surely continue receiving contracts from NASA. SpaceX is intricately linked to Elon’s ambitions for Starlink. Remember, Starlink is used by even the military in many countries. Potential growth of Starlink is immense. #finsky www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

“The high churn of workers earlier in the pandemic as a key reason for the recent upturn in US productivity”

open.substack.com/pub/stayatho...

America and Russia divided a country called Korea after WWII. Looks like Ukraine will likewise be divided up as well.
youtu.be/qOCBkN-UDd0?...

“One tariff would be followed by another in response, and so on until we put at risk common businesses,” Sheinbaum said, referring to U.S. automakers that have plants on both sides of the border. #finsky #econsky
apnews.com/article/mexi...

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FT: "Donald Trump has said he will levy tariffs of 25 per cent on all imports from Canada and Mexico."

This would be counterproductive for trade. It is the kind of mistake we make when we consider trade as a bilateral issue, rather than systemic.
www.ft.com/content/8b98...

“All of this has happened before. All of this will happen again."

There’s a multi billion dollar conglomerate in the Philippines whose lifeblood is just importing and distributing Toyota cars. Over the long term these are fantastic low risk high ROIC revenue streams where the costs are “invisible” since borne as a tax (price and quality) by the populace

Should’ve allowed Ukraine to do this much earlier when it would’ve been a shock to Putin. Now however, is it the market being complacent? Not fully pricing in known unknowns—possible escalation?

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
#finsky #econsky

Ken Griffin Says He’s ‘Very Anxious’ About Trump’s Tariff Policy www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

#finsky #econsky

S&P 500: Trump's 2nd vs 1st term. The start of the 2nd term does not have the right vibe, imo. #finsky #econsky

h/t: Yardeni Research

"A 10% across-the-board tariff would raise $423 billion. A 20% tariff would generate over $800 billion per year in
revenues, assuming that it doesn’t start a trade war." Do these estimates take into consideration the potential decline / collapse in domestic demand? #finsky #econsky