Ioana Marinescu | Lightnews

Ioana Marinescu @imarinescu.bsky.social · 16h

Takeaways:
👉#AI returns saturate if physical lags
👉Wages often rise & fall as intelligence automates
👉Wage declines require shrinking intelligence-job share
👉Policy: pace deployment + invest in physical capacity; don’t bet on a “singularity”

Ioana Marinescu @imarinescu.bsky.social · 16h

Result 4 (simulation). Here we simulate adding more AI, during and after automation. (1) Wage effects of adding more AI saturate. (2) Higher substitutability between physical and intelligence can lead to wage declines during automation but allows for unbounded wage growth post-automation.

Ioana Marinescu @imarinescu.bsky.social · 16h

Result 3 (simulation):when intelligence and physical are more substitutable, automation of intelligence has a larger positive effect on output.
➡️What’s better for workers’ wages is worse for output, trade-offs.

Ioana Marinescu @imarinescu.bsky.social · 16h

Result 2 (simulation): when intelligence and physical are more substitutable, automation of intelligence has a more positive wage effect early on but a more negative effect later.
➡️Cautionary tale, early wage gains may not persist!

Ioana Marinescu @imarinescu.bsky.social · 16h

Result 1: as automation of intelligence by #AI progresses, output increases and there’s an increase in the share of workers in the physical sector \beta (i.e., in person work, including e.g. cooking, teaching and surgery).

Ioana Marinescu @imarinescu.bsky.social · 16h

Model: Output is produced with intelligence and physical sectors (CES), each powered by humans and capital (AI is the capital in the intelligence sector). Labor optimally reallocates between physical and intelligence to maximize wages.

Ioana Marinescu @imarinescu.bsky.social · 16h

Is intelligence saturation plausible?
(1) More intelligent people are not proportionately more successful.
(2) Adding more scientific researchers yields lower and lower additional output
(3) Prior tech (ICT) revolution had limited growth impacts.

Ioana Marinescu @imarinescu.bsky.social · 16h

Why distinguish physical and intelligence? Intelligence saturation: intelligence can make physical inputs maximally efficient, but the impact saturates.
➡️Physical and intelligence sectors are complements, you need more of both to increase output.

Ioana Marinescu @imarinescu.bsky.social · 16h

We've made an interactive tool you can play with to see how wages would evolve with automation & with adding exponentially more #AI, depending on parameters of your choice. Have fun (but maybe read the paper first 😈)! intelligencesaturation.org

Ioana Marinescu @imarinescu.bsky.social · 16d

Application link here: www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/43...

Schmidt Sciences hiring AI Institute Fellow in Residence in New York, NY | LinkedIn

Posted 7:38:39 PM. SummarySchmidt Sciences invites recent PhD graduates in AI and computer science to apply for a…See this and similar jobs on LinkedIn.

www.linkedin.com

Ioana Marinescu @imarinescu.bsky.social · 16d

#AI research fellow job at Schmidt Sciences. You can take it as a year of leave from your university too. One of the areas of focus is AI’s impact on the labor market #EconSky 👇

Ioana Marinescu @imarinescu.bsky.social · Oct 15

The conversation is based on my paper here: www.annualreviews.org/content/jour...

Monopsony Power in the Labor Market: From Theory to Policy

Labor markets are not perfectly competitive: Monopsony power enables employers to pay workers less than the marginal revenue product of labor. We review three theoretical frameworks explaining monopso...

www.annualreviews.org

Ioana Marinescu @imarinescu.bsky.social · Oct 15

Listen to our conversation on competition and #monopsony in the labor market, and the #antitrust policy implications. I had a lot of fun talking to David Fisher from AAI, like we had to cut out some of the laughing 🤭. I hope you enjoy it as much as we did!
www.antitrustinstitute.org/work-product...

From Labor Market Theory to Antitrust Policy: A Conversation with Ioana Marinescu - American Antitrust Institute

On this episode of Ruled by Reason, AAI Senior Counsel David O. Fisher talks with leading economist Ioana Marinescu about the theoretical frameworks underpinning labor monopsony and how they apply … C...

www.antitrustinstitute.org

Ioana Marinescu @imarinescu.bsky.social · Oct 14

Nice to see our work covered here 👇

Population Studies Center @pennpsc.bsky.social · Oct 14

New research from PSC researcher @pgonalon.bsky.social with @imarinescu.bsky.social shows that the high cost of U.S. childcare breeds family income inequality.

Learn more in OMNIA: bit.ly/48W3iOT

Read the study in American Sociological Review:
bit.ly/4h60nVY

Population Studies Center @pennpsc.bsky.social · Oct 14

New research from PSC researcher @pgonalon.bsky.social with @imarinescu.bsky.social shows that the high cost of U.S. childcare breeds family income inequality.

Learn more in OMNIA: bit.ly/48W3iOT

Read the study in American Sociological Review:
bit.ly/4h60nVY

Ioana Marinescu @imarinescu.bsky.social · Oct 13

Congratulations to my mentor and co-author Philippe Aghion!!!! His broad contributions to economics and boundless creative energy are truly inspiring.

NPR @npr.org · Oct 13

Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt won the Nobel memorial prize in economics Monday for their research on how technological innovation fuels economic growth and creative destruction. n.pr/4oh42lZ

3 share Nobel Prize in Economics for work on technology, growth and creative destruction

Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt won the Nobel memorial prize in economics Monday for their research on how technological innovation fuels economic growth and creative destruction.

n.pr

NPR @npr.org · Oct 13

Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt won the Nobel memorial prize in economics Monday for their research on how technological innovation fuels economic growth and creative destruction. n.pr/4oh42lZ

3 share Nobel Prize in Economics for work on technology, growth and creative destruction

Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt won the Nobel memorial prize in economics Monday for their research on how technological innovation fuels economic growth and creative destruction.

n.pr

Centre for Economic Policy Research @cepr.org · Sep 25

AI Acquihires: Competition Risks, Talent Battles and Economic Spillovers Webinar - 8 October @ 17:00 CEST

🗣️Jonathan Kanter @lugaricano.bsky.social @imarinescu.bsky.social @igorletina.bsky.social Hans Zenger

Moderator: @florianederer.bsky.social
Register: cepr.org/events/ai-ac...
#EconSky

Ioana Marinescu @imarinescu.bsky.social · Sep 21

Some context: I used to ask “what are you working on?” but I learned some people would rather not talk about it for various reasons. So the more general “what are you excited about in your field?” lets them EITHER talk about what they’re working on or some other interest.

Ioana Marinescu @imarinescu.bsky.social · Sep 21

Fellow economists, what kind of question would you most like to be asked when meeting someone at a conference? #EconSky
1. What are your working on?
2. What is your field?
3. What is exciting in your field?
4. Other: spill the beans!

Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · Sep 16

Common Ownership & Employee Earnings
updated & improved

Consider a pair of companies that sell into the same product market. If pair shares common owners, the owners have incentive for pair to soften competition.

Same with local labor market competition
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

Common Ownership and Employee Earnings *
José Azar Xin Dai Yue Qiu Aaron Sojourner
September 15, 2025
Abstract
Using administrative data in the manufacturing sector from the U.S. Census Bureau, this paper provides the first evidence on the effect of common ownership on
employee earnings. Using firms’ additions to the S&P 500 index as a shock to their
local competitors’ common ownership, we find that, after a same-industry competitor enters the S&P 500 index, the average employee earnings of S&P 500 incumbents
in the same local labor market decrease. Additionally, these firms’ employment increases. These findings are inconsistent with the canonical oligopsony models but our generalized model of oligopsony incorporating a recruitment intensity margin can rationalize them

Ioana Marinescu @imarinescu.bsky.social · Jul 11

Proud to support @anthropic.com’s new Economic Futures Program as a member of their Economic Advisory Council!
• Research grants up to $50,000 (rolling basis)
• Policy proposal competition
• Expanded Economic Index data access
Apply: www.anthropic.com/economic-futures
#AI #EconSky

Anthropic Economic Futures

A multidisciplinary program funding research grants, policy development, and data infrastructure to help society understand and navigate AI's economic transformation.

www.anthropic.com

Ioana Marinescu @imarinescu.bsky.social · Jul 11

Also see this: bsky.app/profile/prof...

Fiona Scott Morton @proffionasm.bsky.social · Jul 11

A center for conservative thought creates a market test: can its scholars develop logical, strong, useful ideas that stand up to the intellectual questioning of students and colleagues? It may be hard to defend racism & autocracy good, science bad, oligarchs should get all society’s wealth, etc

Ioana Marinescu @imarinescu.bsky.social · Jul 11

“Us vs. them” mentality is not the way to intellectual progress nor to a healthy democratic debate.👇

Ioana Marinescu @imarinescu.bsky.social · Jul 11

There are no homogeneous blocks but loose webs of ideas and those in power pick and choose depending on the interests of the moment. Having a stronger broader web of ideas that have been tested through intellectual debate is useful.

Fiona Scott Morton @proffionasm.bsky.social · Jul 11

A center for conservative thought creates a market test: can its scholars develop logical, strong, useful ideas that stand up to the intellectual questioning of students and colleagues? It may be hard to defend racism & autocracy good, science bad, oligarchs should get all society’s wealth, etc

Ioana Marinescu @imarinescu.bsky.social · Jul 11

“Us vs. them” mentality is not the way to intellectual progress nor to a healthy democratic debate.👇

Evan Bernick, a finite mode with a smol hooman and a lorg floof @evanbernick.bsky.social · Jul 11

This would be an extremely bad idea. It will not satisfy them. It will acknowledge that they are right about something. It will empower them. Literally nothing that anyone should do, should be oriented towards placating this administration.

Ioana Marinescu @imarinescu.bsky.social · Jul 11

“Us vs. them” mentality is not the way to intellectual progress nor to a healthy democratic debate.👇

Evan Bernick, a finite mode with a smol hooman and a lorg floof @evanbernick.bsky.social · Jul 11

This would be an extremely bad idea. It will not satisfy them. It will acknowledge that they are right about something. It will empower them. Literally nothing that anyone should do, should be oriented towards placating this administration.

The Wall Street Journal @wsj.com · Jul 11

Exclusive: Harvard leaders have discussed creating a center for conservative scholarship as the school fights the Trump administration’s accusations that it is too liberal.

Maximilian Kasy @maxkasy.bsky.social · Jul 11

🧨 New draft dropped:🧨
"Cash Transfers,
Mental Health and Agency:
Evidence from an RCT in Germany"
maxkasy.github.io/home/files/p...

Companion paper to our paper on basic income and labor supply.
Corresponding author Freddie Schwerter (@freddieschwerter.bsky.social).
#basicincome #UBI

Evan Bernick, a finite mode with a smol hooman and a lorg floof @evanbernick.bsky.social · Jul 11

This would be an extremely bad idea. It will not satisfy them. It will acknowledge that they are right about something. It will empower them. Literally nothing that anyone should do, should be oriented towards placating this administration.

The Wall Street Journal @wsj.com · Jul 11

Exclusive: Harvard leaders have discussed creating a center for conservative scholarship as the school fights the Trump administration’s accusations that it is too liberal.

Harvard Explores New Center for Conservative Scholarship Amid Trump Attacks

The Ivy League school has discussed an effort to ‘support viewpoint diversity’ with potential donors. Harvard says the initiative ‘will not be partisan.’

on.wsj.com

Simon Jäger @simonjaeger.bsky.social · Jul 11

Very excited that our paper (joint with Jarkko Harju and ‪@schoefer.bsky.social‬) on "Voice at Work" is published in the American Economic Journal: Applied Economics. We study what happened when workers in Finnish firms got a right to worker voice on the corporate board. 👇

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