WeatherTiger
@weathertiger.bsky.social
Daily tropical newsletter at weathertiger.substack.com. Posts by Dr. Ryan Truchelut, weatherman, inframarathoner, dad, dad-humorist.
Wrapping up a brutal and singular day in Atlantic hurricane history, as #Melissa takes its place at the limits of the fury that a tropical cyclone can unleash.
Hoping for the best for Jamaica.
Hoping for the best for Jamaica.
WeatherTiger's Hurricane Melissa Update for October 28th
Melissa ties the record for strongest Atlantic hurricane landfall, devastating Jamaica.
weathertiger.substack.com
October 28, 2025 at 10:33 PM
Wrapping up a brutal and singular day in Atlantic hurricane history, as #Melissa takes its place at the limits of the fury that a tropical cyclone can unleash.
Hoping for the best for Jamaica.
Hoping for the best for Jamaica.
#Melissa is hours away from making landfall in west-central Jamaica and continues to intensify. Minimum pressure has dropped to 896 mb, which makes Melissa the 7th Atlantic hurricane on to breach 900 mb. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 180 mph, tied for 6th-strongest ever in the Atlantic.
October 28, 2025 at 1:10 PM
#Melissa is hours away from making landfall in west-central Jamaica and continues to intensify. Minimum pressure has dropped to 896 mb, which makes Melissa the 7th Atlantic hurricane on to breach 900 mb. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 180 mph, tied for 6th-strongest ever in the Atlantic.
#HurricaneMelissa will reach Jamaica tomorrow morning at or near Category 5 intensity.
Worst #hurricane strike on record incoming for Jamaica, major impacts expected in eastern Cuba, the SE Bahamas/Turks & Caicos, and Bermuda.
Full details for the Caribbean and beyond in today’s newsletter:
Worst #hurricane strike on record incoming for Jamaica, major impacts expected in eastern Cuba, the SE Bahamas/Turks & Caicos, and Bermuda.
Full details for the Caribbean and beyond in today’s newsletter:
WeatherTiger's Category 5 Hurricane Melissa Forecast for October 27th
Melissa is on track to be the most severe hurricane landfall in Jamaica, and one of the worst anywhere in the Atlantic Basin on record.
weathertiger.substack.com
October 27, 2025 at 4:38 PM
#HurricaneMelissa will reach Jamaica tomorrow morning at or near Category 5 intensity.
Worst #hurricane strike on record incoming for Jamaica, major impacts expected in eastern Cuba, the SE Bahamas/Turks & Caicos, and Bermuda.
Full details for the Caribbean and beyond in today’s newsletter:
Worst #hurricane strike on record incoming for Jamaica, major impacts expected in eastern Cuba, the SE Bahamas/Turks & Caicos, and Bermuda.
Full details for the Caribbean and beyond in today’s newsletter:
Hurricane Hunters confirming #Melissa is 2025's third Category 5 #hurricane, with sustained winds of 160 mph. Unfortunately, little weakening is expected before #HurricaneMelissa reaches #Jamaica tomorrow morning & #Cuba Wednesday.
New forecast discussion out later this morning.
New forecast discussion out later this morning.
October 27, 2025 at 12:24 PM
Hurricane Hunters confirming #Melissa is 2025's third Category 5 #hurricane, with sustained winds of 160 mph. Unfortunately, little weakening is expected before #HurricaneMelissa reaches #Jamaica tomorrow morning & #Cuba Wednesday.
New forecast discussion out later this morning.
New forecast discussion out later this morning.
#TropicalStormMelissa poses a serious threat of major #hurricane impacts on Jamaica, Cuba, and the Bahamas next week— but no risk to Florida.
We will be very fortunate if #Melissa does not cause a humanitarian disaster in the northern Caribbean islands.
My latest on this potentially intense storm:
We will be very fortunate if #Melissa does not cause a humanitarian disaster in the northern Caribbean islands.
My latest on this potentially intense storm:
WeatherTiger's Tropical Storm Melissa Forecast for October 23th
Melissa, churning in the Caribbean, is a major hurricane threat to Jamaica, Cuba, and the Bahamas, but continues to pose little risk to the continental U.S.
weathertiger.substack.com
October 23, 2025 at 8:49 PM
#TropicalStormMelissa poses a serious threat of major #hurricane impacts on Jamaica, Cuba, and the Bahamas next week— but no risk to Florida.
We will be very fortunate if #Melissa does not cause a humanitarian disaster in the northern Caribbean islands.
My latest on this potentially intense storm:
We will be very fortunate if #Melissa does not cause a humanitarian disaster in the northern Caribbean islands.
My latest on this potentially intense storm:
With the NHC predicting #TropicalStormMelissa to become a major #hurricane next week, it looks to do so further east than most late season Cat 3+ storms.
The western/west-central Caribbean, where #Melissa will be, are most common locations for rapid intensification in late October or November.
The western/west-central Caribbean, where #Melissa will be, are most common locations for rapid intensification in late October or November.
October 22, 2025 at 3:44 PM
With the NHC predicting #TropicalStormMelissa to become a major #hurricane next week, it looks to do so further east than most late season Cat 3+ storms.
The western/west-central Caribbean, where #Melissa will be, are most common locations for rapid intensification in late October or November.
The western/west-central Caribbean, where #Melissa will be, are most common locations for rapid intensification in late October or November.
Newly-formed #TropicalStormMelissa is forecast to strength and meander into the weekend, and could become a major #hurricane.
However, despite long-term track uncertainty, Melissa is very, very unlikely be a U.S. threat.
My latest on #Melissa:
However, despite long-term track uncertainty, Melissa is very, very unlikely be a U.S. threat.
My latest on #Melissa:
Sour Melissa: The Hurricane Watch for October 21st
Newly-formed Tropical Storm Melissa is a major threat to the western and central Caribbean, though there remains almost no risk for the continental U.S.
weathertiger.substack.com
October 21, 2025 at 7:22 PM
Newly-formed #TropicalStormMelissa is forecast to strength and meander into the weekend, and could become a major #hurricane.
However, despite long-term track uncertainty, Melissa is very, very unlikely be a U.S. threat.
My latest on #Melissa:
However, despite long-term track uncertainty, Melissa is very, very unlikely be a U.S. threat.
My latest on #Melissa:
If the 2025 hurricane season only had one last shot to threaten land, would it seize it, or just let it slip? With La Niña back again, and a vigorous tropical wave heading for the Caribbean, we’ll need to keep an eye out to our south. Climatology says any U.S. threat is unlikely, but not impossible.
Spanish for The Niña: Hurricane Watch Weekly Column for October 16th
The official onset of La Niña conditions may boost late-season development prospects in the Caribbean next week, which is an area worth watching for U.S. interests.
weathertiger.substack.com
October 17, 2025 at 12:32 PM
If the 2025 hurricane season only had one last shot to threaten land, would it seize it, or just let it slip? With La Niña back again, and a vigorous tropical wave heading for the Caribbean, we’ll need to keep an eye out to our south. Climatology says any U.S. threat is unlikely, but not impossible.
Had a chance to discuss the strong coastal low set to impact the East Coast, what to expect over the rest of the 2025 hurricane season, and, of course, to review and assign a numerical rating to Taylor Swift's "The Life of A Showgirl" live on Fox Weather today. Fun interview!
WeatherTiger Discusses Late Season Hurricane Risks, Taylor Swift on Fox Weather
YouTube video by Weather Tiger, LLC
www.youtube.com
October 11, 2025 at 12:54 AM
Had a chance to discuss the strong coastal low set to impact the East Coast, what to expect over the rest of the 2025 hurricane season, and, of course, to review and assign a numerical rating to Taylor Swift's "The Life of A Showgirl" live on Fox Weather today. Fun interview!
Is hurricane season CANCELLED!?
In 2025, we’ve told tropical cyclones to leave us alone and they have. With no hint the next few weeks won’t keep it 100 and most U.S. landfalls post-10/15 caused by lumbering Central American Gyres, this week's column takes a close look at the Life of a Slow Gyre.
In 2025, we’ve told tropical cyclones to leave us alone and they have. With no hint the next few weeks won’t keep it 100 and most U.S. landfalls post-10/15 caused by lumbering Central American Gyres, this week's column takes a close look at the Life of a Slow Gyre.
A Swiftly Tilting Gyre: Hurricane Watch Weekly Column for October 8th
With no U.S. threat from Jerry, I take a look at the life of a Central American Gyre and whether one is likely to develop this October.
weathertiger.substack.com
October 9, 2025 at 12:32 PM
Is hurricane season CANCELLED!?
In 2025, we’ve told tropical cyclones to leave us alone and they have. With no hint the next few weeks won’t keep it 100 and most U.S. landfalls post-10/15 caused by lumbering Central American Gyres, this week's column takes a close look at the Life of a Slow Gyre.
In 2025, we’ve told tropical cyclones to leave us alone and they have. With no hint the next few weeks won’t keep it 100 and most U.S. landfalls post-10/15 caused by lumbering Central American Gyres, this week's column takes a close look at the Life of a Slow Gyre.
Wrapping up Humbertimelda mania, looking at what the home stretch of hurricane season is historically packing, and checking how the forecast for the next few weeks lines up with climatology.
All that plus spooky, scary skeletons in this week’s WeatherTiger hurricane column:
All that plus spooky, scary skeletons in this week’s WeatherTiger hurricane column:
Whirlwind Tour: Hurricane Watch Weekly Column for October 1st
Wrapping up Humbertimelda mania and looking at historical October hurricane risks.
weathertiger.substack.com
October 1, 2025 at 8:17 PM
Wrapping up Humbertimelda mania, looking at what the home stretch of hurricane season is historically packing, and checking how the forecast for the next few weeks lines up with climatology.
All that plus spooky, scary skeletons in this week’s WeatherTiger hurricane column:
All that plus spooky, scary skeletons in this week’s WeatherTiger hurricane column:
Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 will strengthen to a tropical storm and move north-northwest through the Bahamas this weekend.
Our latest on an uncertain forecast for potential coastal rain and wind impacts for Florida north to the Carolinas:
Our latest on an uncertain forecast for potential coastal rain and wind impacts for Florida north to the Carolinas:
WeatherTiger's Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Forecast for September 27th
PTC 9 is expected to approach the Carolinas in around 3 days, with an uncertain forecast thereafter.
weathertiger.substack.com
September 27, 2025 at 2:30 PM
Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 will strengthen to a tropical storm and move north-northwest through the Bahamas this weekend.
Our latest on an uncertain forecast for potential coastal rain and wind impacts for Florida north to the Carolinas:
Our latest on an uncertain forecast for potential coastal rain and wind impacts for Florida north to the Carolinas:
TS #Humberto and #Invest94L continue to be features to watch closely. The bigger threat, Invest #94L, should follow a steering channel east of #Florida this weekend. #Carolinas have a higher chance of a direct landfall early next week.
Thursday update here: weathertiger.substack.com/p/dont-call-...
Thursday update here: weathertiger.substack.com/p/dont-call-...
September 25, 2025 at 5:59 PM
TS #Humberto and #Invest94L continue to be features to watch closely. The bigger threat, Invest #94L, should follow a steering channel east of #Florida this weekend. #Carolinas have a higher chance of a direct landfall early next week.
Thursday update here: weathertiger.substack.com/p/dont-call-...
Thursday update here: weathertiger.substack.com/p/dont-call-...
One year after Helene/Milton Hurricane Hell Fortnight '24, milder double trouble is here as #Invest93L & #Invest94L may track close enough to interact this week. Odds tilt away from major U.S. impacts, but worth watching from #Florida to the Carolinas.
The latest on a possible Hurricane Heck Week:
The latest on a possible Hurricane Heck Week:
Folie à Deux: Hurricane Watch Weekly Column for September 24th
Making sense of the chance that two tropical systems interact east of Florida early next week, and what that means for possible U.S. weather impacts.
weathertiger.substack.com
September 24, 2025 at 5:22 PM
One year after Helene/Milton Hurricane Hell Fortnight '24, milder double trouble is here as #Invest93L & #Invest94L may track close enough to interact this week. Odds tilt away from major U.S. impacts, but worth watching from #Florida to the Carolinas.
The latest on a possible Hurricane Heck Week:
The latest on a possible Hurricane Heck Week:
For the 1st time in 84 years, correction, 3 weeks, there is a storm in the Atlantic: Gabrielle, a strung-out mess that poses no risk other than to Bermuda.
With a quiet Atlantic continuing, I'm taking a deep dive into AI weather/hurricane prediction this week. Am I about to be replaced by Skynet?
With a quiet Atlantic continuing, I'm taking a deep dive into AI weather/hurricane prediction this week. Am I about to be replaced by Skynet?
Never Ending Math Equation: Hurricane Watch Weekly Column for September 17th
TS Gabrielle forms but is no threat, as we look at how AI is making an impact on hurricane forecasts.
weathertiger.substack.com
September 18, 2025 at 11:25 AM
For the 1st time in 84 years, correction, 3 weeks, there is a storm in the Atlantic: Gabrielle, a strung-out mess that poses no risk other than to Bermuda.
With a quiet Atlantic continuing, I'm taking a deep dive into AI weather/hurricane prediction this week. Am I about to be replaced by Skynet?
With a quiet Atlantic continuing, I'm taking a deep dive into AI weather/hurricane prediction this week. Am I about to be replaced by Skynet?
If you follow the Tropical Atlantic, you might be confused like our friend Vincent Vega here by the lack of any named storms since August 28th, a timeframe that is the climatological peak of #hurricane season.
So what's going on, and will it continue? Thread: (1/7)
So what's going on, and will it continue? Thread: (1/7)
September 11, 2025 at 5:31 PM
If you follow the Tropical Atlantic, you might be confused like our friend Vincent Vega here by the lack of any named storms since August 28th, a timeframe that is the climatological peak of #hurricane season.
So what's going on, and will it continue? Thread: (1/7)
So what's going on, and will it continue? Thread: (1/7)
If like Travolta here, you're confused by the quiet peak week of hurricane season, we’ve got you covered. Today’s column breaks down the reasons for this lull and rolls out fresh predictions from our model of late-season U.S. landfall risks.
Bottom line, stay light on your feet like Johnny.
Bottom line, stay light on your feet like Johnny.
Stolen Thunder: Hurricane Watch Weekly Column for September 10th
Hurricane season has fallen. Can it get up? We develop a new model to address that question.
weathertiger.substack.com
September 10, 2025 at 8:23 PM
If like Travolta here, you're confused by the quiet peak week of hurricane season, we’ve got you covered. Today’s column breaks down the reasons for this lull and rolls out fresh predictions from our model of late-season U.S. landfall risks.
Bottom line, stay light on your feet like Johnny.
Bottom line, stay light on your feet like Johnny.
[Annual post]
Convection crippled by the dry air that keeps on blowin'
Subsidence imposin'
And we
Keep bleeding, keep, keep bleeding ACE
And we keep bleeding, keep, keep bleeding ACE
Keep bleeding, keep, keep bleeding ACE
Shear cuts waves open
Convection crippled by the dry air that keeps on blowin'
Subsidence imposin'
And we
Keep bleeding, keep, keep bleeding ACE
And we keep bleeding, keep, keep bleeding ACE
Keep bleeding, keep, keep bleeding ACE
Shear cuts waves open
September 9, 2025 at 2:47 PM
[Annual post]
Convection crippled by the dry air that keeps on blowin'
Subsidence imposin'
And we
Keep bleeding, keep, keep bleeding ACE
And we keep bleeding, keep, keep bleeding ACE
Keep bleeding, keep, keep bleeding ACE
Shear cuts waves open
Convection crippled by the dry air that keeps on blowin'
Subsidence imposin'
And we
Keep bleeding, keep, keep bleeding ACE
And we keep bleeding, keep, keep bleeding ACE
Keep bleeding, keep, keep bleeding ACE
Shear cuts waves open
With Invest 91L succumbing to dry air and subsidence and no longer a threat to develop, here's a look at this morning's NHC Tropical Weather Outlook:
September 7, 2025 at 11:34 AM
With Invest 91L succumbing to dry air and subsidence and no longer a threat to develop, here's a look at this morning's NHC Tropical Weather Outlook:
It's been a quiet, hopeful first half of #hurricane season, but there are possible signs of trouble brewing for the second half.
This week’s column discusses a tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic likely to become the next tropical storm, as well as updated U.S. seasonal landfall probabilities.
This week’s column discusses a tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic likely to become the next tropical storm, as well as updated U.S. seasonal landfall probabilities.
Halftime Show: Hurricane Watch Weekly Column for September 3rd
Monitoring a potential hurricane threat to the Antilles as we gear up for what will likely be a busy second half of hurricane season.
weathertiger.substack.com
September 3, 2025 at 8:45 PM
It's been a quiet, hopeful first half of #hurricane season, but there are possible signs of trouble brewing for the second half.
This week’s column discusses a tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic likely to become the next tropical storm, as well as updated U.S. seasonal landfall probabilities.
This week’s column discusses a tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic likely to become the next tropical storm, as well as updated U.S. seasonal landfall probabilities.
It's always a happy Labor Day weekend without a hurricane. Even high rain chances for Florida, beats the historical alternative.
An oddly quiet week in the Tropics is a chance to look back at Katrina and ahead to September. Cherish the reprieve, because climatology tells us it won’t last forever.
An oddly quiet week in the Tropics is a chance to look back at Katrina and ahead to September. Cherish the reprieve, because climatology tells us it won’t last forever.
ACE/Off: Hurricane Watch Weekly Column for August 27th
An oddly quiet week in the Tropics is a chance to look back at Katrina and ahead to September hurricane history.
weathertiger.substack.com
August 27, 2025 at 8:44 PM
It's always a happy Labor Day weekend without a hurricane. Even high rain chances for Florida, beats the historical alternative.
An oddly quiet week in the Tropics is a chance to look back at Katrina and ahead to September. Cherish the reprieve, because climatology tells us it won’t last forever.
An oddly quiet week in the Tropics is a chance to look back at Katrina and ahead to September. Cherish the reprieve, because climatology tells us it won’t last forever.
Atlantic Tropical development is unlikely in the last week of August.
That's a little unusual: over the last 75 years, at least one tropical storm has formed ~60% of the time. At least one hurricane developed in ~40% of seasons.
Nice easy week. Cherish it while it lasts.
That's a little unusual: over the last 75 years, at least one tropical storm has formed ~60% of the time. At least one hurricane developed in ~40% of seasons.
Nice easy week. Cherish it while it lasts.
August 25, 2025 at 7:15 PM
Atlantic Tropical development is unlikely in the last week of August.
That's a little unusual: over the last 75 years, at least one tropical storm has formed ~60% of the time. At least one hurricane developed in ~40% of seasons.
Nice easy week. Cherish it while it lasts.
That's a little unusual: over the last 75 years, at least one tropical storm has formed ~60% of the time. At least one hurricane developed in ~40% of seasons.
Nice easy week. Cherish it while it lasts.
The scope of 2-2.5' surge today with #Erin is very impressive, spanning all the way from North Carolina to New Jersey despite a track 300+ miles offshore.
This evening's high tide will be the highest water for the mid-Atlantic, and moderate flood stage is possible in some locations. Be safe!
This evening's high tide will be the highest water for the mid-Atlantic, and moderate flood stage is possible in some locations. Be safe!
August 21, 2025 at 8:33 PM
The scope of 2-2.5' surge today with #Erin is very impressive, spanning all the way from North Carolina to New Jersey despite a track 300+ miles offshore.
This evening's high tide will be the highest water for the mid-Atlantic, and moderate flood stage is possible in some locations. Be safe!
This evening's high tide will be the highest water for the mid-Atlantic, and moderate flood stage is possible in some locations. Be safe!
Reels and ‘Toks to the contrary, Hurricane Erin did not snap the U.S. East Coast’s 21-year streak without a Cat 3+ landfall. And good thing, because it's a monster.
Latest on Erin’s wave, surge, rip current, and wind impacts, plus why it's the last threat for a while in this week’s tropical column.
Latest on Erin’s wave, surge, rip current, and wind impacts, plus why it's the last threat for a while in this week’s tropical column.
Spiraling: Hurricane Watch Weekly Column for August 20th
Hurricane Erin goes full 🌀 as it sends potent waves and some surge to the U.S. East Coast, while thankfully remaining offshore.
weathertiger.substack.com
August 20, 2025 at 9:34 PM
Reels and ‘Toks to the contrary, Hurricane Erin did not snap the U.S. East Coast’s 21-year streak without a Cat 3+ landfall. And good thing, because it's a monster.
Latest on Erin’s wave, surge, rip current, and wind impacts, plus why it's the last threat for a while in this week’s tropical column.
Latest on Erin’s wave, surge, rip current, and wind impacts, plus why it's the last threat for a while in this week’s tropical column.
With Category 4 #HurricaneErin ripping ~20 ACE units so far (and 15-20 ACE to go), the 2025 #HurricaneSeason has rapidly vaulted out of the climatological basement— moving up from <30th percentile to date last week to nearly 80th percentile today.
More percentile gains from #Erin to come.
More percentile gains from #Erin to come.
August 18, 2025 at 2:39 PM
With Category 4 #HurricaneErin ripping ~20 ACE units so far (and 15-20 ACE to go), the 2025 #HurricaneSeason has rapidly vaulted out of the climatological basement— moving up from <30th percentile to date last week to nearly 80th percentile today.
More percentile gains from #Erin to come.
More percentile gains from #Erin to come.