WeatherTiger
@weathertiger.bsky.social
Daily tropical newsletter at weathertiger.substack.com. Posts by Dr. Ryan Truchelut, weatherman, inframarathoner, dad, dad-humorist.
Winter is back in #ExtremeNorthernFlorida and it's going to stick around for awhile.
The latest on Florida's continued abnormal cold (and miniscule but non-zero chances of snow or ice) in today's forecast update:
The latest on Florida's continued abnormal cold (and miniscule but non-zero chances of snow or ice) in today's forecast update:
Dr. Ryan Truchelut (@weathertiger)
After a brief reprieve, winter is back in Extreme Northern Florida, where temps will struggle into the 40s this afternoon ahead of a bitterly cold and breezy night with lows in the lower 20s. The Nati...
substack.com
January 26, 2026 at 4:56 PM
Winter is back in #ExtremeNorthernFlorida and it's going to stick around for awhile.
The latest on Florida's continued abnormal cold (and miniscule but non-zero chances of snow or ice) in today's forecast update:
The latest on Florida's continued abnormal cold (and miniscule but non-zero chances of snow or ice) in today's forecast update:
While #Florida will not see snow/ice from this weekend's massive Winter Storm Xenawarriorprincess (name unofficial), a historic cold pattern follows.
#Tallahassee may see 8 or more freezes in a row beginning Tuesday. That's only happened 12 times since 1892, most recently in 2010. #FLwx
#Tallahassee may see 8 or more freezes in a row beginning Tuesday. That's only happened 12 times since 1892, most recently in 2010. #FLwx
January 23, 2026 at 5:05 PM
While #Florida will not see snow/ice from this weekend's massive Winter Storm Xenawarriorprincess (name unofficial), a historic cold pattern follows.
#Tallahassee may see 8 or more freezes in a row beginning Tuesday. That's only happened 12 times since 1892, most recently in 2010. #FLwx
#Tallahassee may see 8 or more freezes in a row beginning Tuesday. That's only happened 12 times since 1892, most recently in 2010. #FLwx
Saw the rarest of winter beasts on snowy I-10 this morning: three FL Dept. of Transportation snowplows. They do exist!
Click for a field report from "Operation Siberian Tiger:" a voyage into the savage, snowy heart of the tundras/caves of extreme northern #Florida:
www.facebook.com/weathertiger...
Click for a field report from "Operation Siberian Tiger:" a voyage into the savage, snowy heart of the tundras/caves of extreme northern #Florida:
www.facebook.com/weathertiger...
January 18, 2026 at 10:30 PM
Saw the rarest of winter beasts on snowy I-10 this morning: three FL Dept. of Transportation snowplows. They do exist!
Click for a field report from "Operation Siberian Tiger:" a voyage into the savage, snowy heart of the tundras/caves of extreme northern #Florida:
www.facebook.com/weathertiger...
Click for a field report from "Operation Siberian Tiger:" a voyage into the savage, snowy heart of the tundras/caves of extreme northern #Florida:
www.facebook.com/weathertiger...
Snow falling in the western #Panhandle with rain/snow line roughly from Santa Rosa Beach to just west of Marianna as of 8am ET/7 CT.
Little hope of frozen precip in #Tallahassee so I'm chasing this one personally out to Marianna!
Little hope of frozen precip in #Tallahassee so I'm chasing this one personally out to Marianna!
January 18, 2026 at 1:12 PM
Snow falling in the western #Panhandle with rain/snow line roughly from Santa Rosa Beach to just west of Marianna as of 8am ET/7 CT.
Little hope of frozen precip in #Tallahassee so I'm chasing this one personally out to Marianna!
Little hope of frozen precip in #Tallahassee so I'm chasing this one personally out to Marianna!
Saturday Night Florida Snow Update:
Rainfall is kicking up along the Gulf Coast tonight, which will probably change over to a few hours of mixed rain/snow or wet snow Sunday morning in the NW #Florida Panhandle and south Georgia.
My latest here, back tomorrow morning with more:
Rainfall is kicking up along the Gulf Coast tonight, which will probably change over to a few hours of mixed rain/snow or wet snow Sunday morning in the NW #Florida Panhandle and south Georgia.
My latest here, back tomorrow morning with more:
Dr. Ryan Truchelut (@weathertiger)
Saturday Night Florida Snow Update:
Rainfall is kicking up along the Gulf Coast tonight, as a combination of an Arctic front and weak Gulf low looks to probably change that cold rain over to a few ho...
substack.com
January 18, 2026 at 4:11 AM
Saturday Night Florida Snow Update:
Rainfall is kicking up along the Gulf Coast tonight, which will probably change over to a few hours of mixed rain/snow or wet snow Sunday morning in the NW #Florida Panhandle and south Georgia.
My latest here, back tomorrow morning with more:
Rainfall is kicking up along the Gulf Coast tonight, which will probably change over to a few hours of mixed rain/snow or wet snow Sunday morning in the NW #Florida Panhandle and south Georgia.
My latest here, back tomorrow morning with more:
Very cold morning in #Florida, with #Tallahassee dropping sub-20 for the 1st time since Dec. 2022 and rural upper 20s for south to Lake Okeechobee.
Still watching Sunday morning for a chance of light snow in the #Panhandle, followed by another deep freeze Monday morning. #FLwx
Still watching Sunday morning for a chance of light snow in the #Panhandle, followed by another deep freeze Monday morning. #FLwx
January 16, 2026 at 6:57 PM
Very cold morning in #Florida, with #Tallahassee dropping sub-20 for the 1st time since Dec. 2022 and rural upper 20s for south to Lake Okeechobee.
Still watching Sunday morning for a chance of light snow in the #Panhandle, followed by another deep freeze Monday morning. #FLwx
Still watching Sunday morning for a chance of light snow in the #Panhandle, followed by another deep freeze Monday morning. #FLwx
North #Florida, are you ready for the transcendent winter magic of 37-degree rain?
Is snow possible? It’s in the realm of the possible, but I wouldn’t count on it. Weighing the odds of another round of #Panhandle winter whimsy and how this possible #FLwx storm is very different than last year's:
Is snow possible? It’s in the realm of the possible, but I wouldn’t count on it. Weighing the odds of another round of #Panhandle winter whimsy and how this possible #FLwx storm is very different than last year's:
Florida Potential Winter Storm Update for January 15
Weighing the odds that the Panhandle ekes out a little snow on Sunday morning.
weathertiger.substack.com
January 15, 2026 at 3:57 PM
North #Florida, are you ready for the transcendent winter magic of 37-degree rain?
Is snow possible? It’s in the realm of the possible, but I wouldn’t count on it. Weighing the odds of another round of #Panhandle winter whimsy and how this possible #FLwx storm is very different than last year's:
Is snow possible? It’s in the realm of the possible, but I wouldn’t count on it. Weighing the odds of another round of #Panhandle winter whimsy and how this possible #FLwx storm is very different than last year's:
Do you believe?
I'm still skeptical of North #Florida's weekend snow chances, but model guidance has trended much stronger over the last day with the "kicker" disturbance over the Plains that could wring out a little snow behind a front Sunday morning across the #Panhandle. 1/2
I'm still skeptical of North #Florida's weekend snow chances, but model guidance has trended much stronger over the last day with the "kicker" disturbance over the Plains that could wring out a little snow behind a front Sunday morning across the #Panhandle. 1/2
January 14, 2026 at 9:37 PM
Do you believe?
I'm still skeptical of North #Florida's weekend snow chances, but model guidance has trended much stronger over the last day with the "kicker" disturbance over the Plains that could wring out a little snow behind a front Sunday morning across the #Panhandle. 1/2
I'm still skeptical of North #Florida's weekend snow chances, but model guidance has trended much stronger over the last day with the "kicker" disturbance over the Plains that could wring out a little snow behind a front Sunday morning across the #Panhandle. 1/2
Now is the winter of our social media #content, as chatter ripples of southern winter storm threats.
Does the jet stream pattern ahead check the necessary boxes to square the circle and bring #Florida winter whimsy back in 2026?
My monthly off-season newsletter has much-needed historical context:
Does the jet stream pattern ahead check the necessary boxes to square the circle and bring #Florida winter whimsy back in 2026?
My monthly off-season newsletter has much-needed historical context:
Fire and Ice: The WeatherTiger Newsletter for January 2026
A deep dive into Florida winter weather, past and present.
weathertiger.substack.com
January 9, 2026 at 5:39 PM
Matt is right on the money. This is a vindictive attack on public safety.
Today we discuss the news that NCAR, a critical cog in weather research has been targeted to be dismantled by the Trump Administration and why that's a really, really bad decision. We also connect NCAR to ongoing atmospheric river events. More below or at theeyewall.com.
As atmospheric river events bear down on the West Coast, U.S. weather research that helps public safety and the economy continues to be credibly threatened
The Trump Administration plans to gut NCAR, one of the most valuable, important, and effective weather and climate research centers on Earth
open.substack.com
December 17, 2025 at 7:03 PM
Matt is right on the money. This is a vindictive attack on public safety.
People are saying that Russ Vought's brain is a solid chunk of lead. Many people are saying this.
December 17, 2025 at 6:17 PM
People are saying that Russ Vought's brain is a solid chunk of lead. Many people are saying this.
Hurricane season 2025 ends in less than a week.
The 2025 season has the distinction of having the lowest proportion of total Atlantic tropical activity (ACE) occurring near or over the continental U.S. of any year since 1950: a measly 0.2% versus a typical 4 to 5%.
The 2025 season has the distinction of having the lowest proportion of total Atlantic tropical activity (ACE) occurring near or over the continental U.S. of any year since 1950: a measly 0.2% versus a typical 4 to 5%.
November 25, 2025 at 7:49 PM
Hurricane season 2025 ends in less than a week.
The 2025 season has the distinction of having the lowest proportion of total Atlantic tropical activity (ACE) occurring near or over the continental U.S. of any year since 1950: a measly 0.2% versus a typical 4 to 5%.
The 2025 season has the distinction of having the lowest proportion of total Atlantic tropical activity (ACE) occurring near or over the continental U.S. of any year since 1950: a measly 0.2% versus a typical 4 to 5%.
Wrapping up a brutal and singular day in Atlantic hurricane history, as #Melissa takes its place at the limits of the fury that a tropical cyclone can unleash.
Hoping for the best for Jamaica.
Hoping for the best for Jamaica.
WeatherTiger's Hurricane Melissa Update for October 28th
Melissa ties the record for strongest Atlantic hurricane landfall, devastating Jamaica.
weathertiger.substack.com
October 28, 2025 at 10:33 PM
Wrapping up a brutal and singular day in Atlantic hurricane history, as #Melissa takes its place at the limits of the fury that a tropical cyclone can unleash.
Hoping for the best for Jamaica.
Hoping for the best for Jamaica.
#Melissa is hours away from making landfall in west-central Jamaica and continues to intensify. Minimum pressure has dropped to 896 mb, which makes Melissa the 7th Atlantic hurricane on to breach 900 mb. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 180 mph, tied for 6th-strongest ever in the Atlantic.
October 28, 2025 at 1:10 PM
#Melissa is hours away from making landfall in west-central Jamaica and continues to intensify. Minimum pressure has dropped to 896 mb, which makes Melissa the 7th Atlantic hurricane on to breach 900 mb. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 180 mph, tied for 6th-strongest ever in the Atlantic.
#HurricaneMelissa will reach Jamaica tomorrow morning at or near Category 5 intensity.
Worst #hurricane strike on record incoming for Jamaica, major impacts expected in eastern Cuba, the SE Bahamas/Turks & Caicos, and Bermuda.
Full details for the Caribbean and beyond in today’s newsletter:
Worst #hurricane strike on record incoming for Jamaica, major impacts expected in eastern Cuba, the SE Bahamas/Turks & Caicos, and Bermuda.
Full details for the Caribbean and beyond in today’s newsletter:
WeatherTiger's Category 5 Hurricane Melissa Forecast for October 27th
Melissa is on track to be the most severe hurricane landfall in Jamaica, and one of the worst anywhere in the Atlantic Basin on record.
weathertiger.substack.com
October 27, 2025 at 4:38 PM
#HurricaneMelissa will reach Jamaica tomorrow morning at or near Category 5 intensity.
Worst #hurricane strike on record incoming for Jamaica, major impacts expected in eastern Cuba, the SE Bahamas/Turks & Caicos, and Bermuda.
Full details for the Caribbean and beyond in today’s newsletter:
Worst #hurricane strike on record incoming for Jamaica, major impacts expected in eastern Cuba, the SE Bahamas/Turks & Caicos, and Bermuda.
Full details for the Caribbean and beyond in today’s newsletter:
Hurricane Hunters confirming #Melissa is 2025's third Category 5 #hurricane, with sustained winds of 160 mph. Unfortunately, little weakening is expected before #HurricaneMelissa reaches #Jamaica tomorrow morning & #Cuba Wednesday.
New forecast discussion out later this morning.
New forecast discussion out later this morning.
October 27, 2025 at 12:24 PM
Hurricane Hunters confirming #Melissa is 2025's third Category 5 #hurricane, with sustained winds of 160 mph. Unfortunately, little weakening is expected before #HurricaneMelissa reaches #Jamaica tomorrow morning & #Cuba Wednesday.
New forecast discussion out later this morning.
New forecast discussion out later this morning.
#TropicalStormMelissa poses a serious threat of major #hurricane impacts on Jamaica, Cuba, and the Bahamas next week— but no risk to Florida.
We will be very fortunate if #Melissa does not cause a humanitarian disaster in the northern Caribbean islands.
My latest on this potentially intense storm:
We will be very fortunate if #Melissa does not cause a humanitarian disaster in the northern Caribbean islands.
My latest on this potentially intense storm:
WeatherTiger's Tropical Storm Melissa Forecast for October 23th
Melissa, churning in the Caribbean, is a major hurricane threat to Jamaica, Cuba, and the Bahamas, but continues to pose little risk to the continental U.S.
weathertiger.substack.com
October 23, 2025 at 8:49 PM
#TropicalStormMelissa poses a serious threat of major #hurricane impacts on Jamaica, Cuba, and the Bahamas next week— but no risk to Florida.
We will be very fortunate if #Melissa does not cause a humanitarian disaster in the northern Caribbean islands.
My latest on this potentially intense storm:
We will be very fortunate if #Melissa does not cause a humanitarian disaster in the northern Caribbean islands.
My latest on this potentially intense storm:
With the NHC predicting #TropicalStormMelissa to become a major #hurricane next week, it looks to do so further east than most late season Cat 3+ storms.
The western/west-central Caribbean, where #Melissa will be, are most common locations for rapid intensification in late October or November.
The western/west-central Caribbean, where #Melissa will be, are most common locations for rapid intensification in late October or November.
October 22, 2025 at 3:44 PM
With the NHC predicting #TropicalStormMelissa to become a major #hurricane next week, it looks to do so further east than most late season Cat 3+ storms.
The western/west-central Caribbean, where #Melissa will be, are most common locations for rapid intensification in late October or November.
The western/west-central Caribbean, where #Melissa will be, are most common locations for rapid intensification in late October or November.
Newly-formed #TropicalStormMelissa is forecast to strength and meander into the weekend, and could become a major #hurricane.
However, despite long-term track uncertainty, Melissa is very, very unlikely be a U.S. threat.
My latest on #Melissa:
However, despite long-term track uncertainty, Melissa is very, very unlikely be a U.S. threat.
My latest on #Melissa:
Sour Melissa: The Hurricane Watch for October 21st
Newly-formed Tropical Storm Melissa is a major threat to the western and central Caribbean, though there remains almost no risk for the continental U.S.
weathertiger.substack.com
October 21, 2025 at 7:22 PM
Newly-formed #TropicalStormMelissa is forecast to strength and meander into the weekend, and could become a major #hurricane.
However, despite long-term track uncertainty, Melissa is very, very unlikely be a U.S. threat.
My latest on #Melissa:
However, despite long-term track uncertainty, Melissa is very, very unlikely be a U.S. threat.
My latest on #Melissa:
If the 2025 hurricane season only had one last shot to threaten land, would it seize it, or just let it slip? With La Niña back again, and a vigorous tropical wave heading for the Caribbean, we’ll need to keep an eye out to our south. Climatology says any U.S. threat is unlikely, but not impossible.
Spanish for The Niña: Hurricane Watch Weekly Column for October 16th
The official onset of La Niña conditions may boost late-season development prospects in the Caribbean next week, which is an area worth watching for U.S. interests.
weathertiger.substack.com
October 17, 2025 at 12:32 PM
If the 2025 hurricane season only had one last shot to threaten land, would it seize it, or just let it slip? With La Niña back again, and a vigorous tropical wave heading for the Caribbean, we’ll need to keep an eye out to our south. Climatology says any U.S. threat is unlikely, but not impossible.
Had a chance to discuss the strong coastal low set to impact the East Coast, what to expect over the rest of the 2025 hurricane season, and, of course, to review and assign a numerical rating to Taylor Swift's "The Life of A Showgirl" live on Fox Weather today. Fun interview!
WeatherTiger Discusses Late Season Hurricane Risks, Taylor Swift on Fox Weather
YouTube video by Weather Tiger, LLC
www.youtube.com
October 11, 2025 at 12:54 AM
Had a chance to discuss the strong coastal low set to impact the East Coast, what to expect over the rest of the 2025 hurricane season, and, of course, to review and assign a numerical rating to Taylor Swift's "The Life of A Showgirl" live on Fox Weather today. Fun interview!
Is hurricane season CANCELLED!?
In 2025, we’ve told tropical cyclones to leave us alone and they have. With no hint the next few weeks won’t keep it 100 and most U.S. landfalls post-10/15 caused by lumbering Central American Gyres, this week's column takes a close look at the Life of a Slow Gyre.
In 2025, we’ve told tropical cyclones to leave us alone and they have. With no hint the next few weeks won’t keep it 100 and most U.S. landfalls post-10/15 caused by lumbering Central American Gyres, this week's column takes a close look at the Life of a Slow Gyre.
A Swiftly Tilting Gyre: Hurricane Watch Weekly Column for October 8th
With no U.S. threat from Jerry, I take a look at the life of a Central American Gyre and whether one is likely to develop this October.
weathertiger.substack.com
October 9, 2025 at 12:32 PM
Is hurricane season CANCELLED!?
In 2025, we’ve told tropical cyclones to leave us alone and they have. With no hint the next few weeks won’t keep it 100 and most U.S. landfalls post-10/15 caused by lumbering Central American Gyres, this week's column takes a close look at the Life of a Slow Gyre.
In 2025, we’ve told tropical cyclones to leave us alone and they have. With no hint the next few weeks won’t keep it 100 and most U.S. landfalls post-10/15 caused by lumbering Central American Gyres, this week's column takes a close look at the Life of a Slow Gyre.
Wrapping up Humbertimelda mania, looking at what the home stretch of hurricane season is historically packing, and checking how the forecast for the next few weeks lines up with climatology.
All that plus spooky, scary skeletons in this week’s WeatherTiger hurricane column:
All that plus spooky, scary skeletons in this week’s WeatherTiger hurricane column:
Whirlwind Tour: Hurricane Watch Weekly Column for October 1st
Wrapping up Humbertimelda mania and looking at historical October hurricane risks.
weathertiger.substack.com
October 1, 2025 at 8:17 PM
Wrapping up Humbertimelda mania, looking at what the home stretch of hurricane season is historically packing, and checking how the forecast for the next few weeks lines up with climatology.
All that plus spooky, scary skeletons in this week’s WeatherTiger hurricane column:
All that plus spooky, scary skeletons in this week’s WeatherTiger hurricane column:
Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 will strengthen to a tropical storm and move north-northwest through the Bahamas this weekend.
Our latest on an uncertain forecast for potential coastal rain and wind impacts for Florida north to the Carolinas:
Our latest on an uncertain forecast for potential coastal rain and wind impacts for Florida north to the Carolinas:
WeatherTiger's Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Forecast for September 27th
PTC 9 is expected to approach the Carolinas in around 3 days, with an uncertain forecast thereafter.
weathertiger.substack.com
September 27, 2025 at 2:30 PM
Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 will strengthen to a tropical storm and move north-northwest through the Bahamas this weekend.
Our latest on an uncertain forecast for potential coastal rain and wind impacts for Florida north to the Carolinas:
Our latest on an uncertain forecast for potential coastal rain and wind impacts for Florida north to the Carolinas:
TS #Humberto and #Invest94L continue to be features to watch closely. The bigger threat, Invest #94L, should follow a steering channel east of #Florida this weekend. #Carolinas have a higher chance of a direct landfall early next week.
Thursday update here: weathertiger.substack.com/p/dont-call-...
Thursday update here: weathertiger.substack.com/p/dont-call-...
September 25, 2025 at 5:59 PM
TS #Humberto and #Invest94L continue to be features to watch closely. The bigger threat, Invest #94L, should follow a steering channel east of #Florida this weekend. #Carolinas have a higher chance of a direct landfall early next week.
Thursday update here: weathertiger.substack.com/p/dont-call-...
Thursday update here: weathertiger.substack.com/p/dont-call-...