Tyler Evilsizer
@tylerevilsizer.bsky.social
Numbers wizard for the Senate Budget Committee Democrats; tax nerd, budget wonk. Formerly at @BudgetHawks
As a reminder, there is a contingency fund available for paying SNAP benefits. Trump's "Government lawyers" thought he could use it during the first term shutdown and as recently as September.
October 31, 2025 at 10:43 PM
As a reminder, there is a contingency fund available for paying SNAP benefits. Trump's "Government lawyers" thought he could use it during the first term shutdown and as recently as September.
Reposted by Tyler Evilsizer
When I worked at Senate Budget, every single year, I would go through the copious errors in Rand Paul's budget. Tyler was my replacement when I left (follow him).
What's so amazing about the Paul budget is both that he has some of the same errors each year & that there are new ones every year too.
What's so amazing about the Paul budget is both that he has some of the same errors each year & that there are new ones every year too.
Yesterday, Rand Paul proposed a budget that is full of gimmicks AND full of typos. It calls for a massive 38% cut to federal spending, but doesn't tell you where.
September 18, 2025 at 12:09 AM
When I worked at Senate Budget, every single year, I would go through the copious errors in Rand Paul's budget. Tyler was my replacement when I left (follow him).
What's so amazing about the Paul budget is both that he has some of the same errors each year & that there are new ones every year too.
What's so amazing about the Paul budget is both that he has some of the same errors each year & that there are new ones every year too.
Yesterday, Rand Paul proposed a budget that is full of gimmicks AND full of typos. It calls for a massive 38% cut to federal spending, but doesn't tell you where.
September 18, 2025 at 12:03 AM
Yesterday, Rand Paul proposed a budget that is full of gimmicks AND full of typos. It calls for a massive 38% cut to federal spending, but doesn't tell you where.
Reposted by Tyler Evilsizer
I want to be very clear about what’s happening: Senate Republicans know the parliamentarian will say they can’t use 312 to pretend tax cuts are free (because two have two Byrd rule problems).
So they are refusing to meet with her so they can pretend they never ignored her when they do it anyway.
So they are refusing to meet with her so they can pretend they never ignored her when they do it anyway.
June 29, 2025 at 3:32 PM
I want to be very clear about what’s happening: Senate Republicans know the parliamentarian will say they can’t use 312 to pretend tax cuts are free (because two have two Byrd rule problems).
So they are refusing to meet with her so they can pretend they never ignored her when they do it anyway.
So they are refusing to meet with her so they can pretend they never ignored her when they do it anyway.
Parliamentarian's guidance for the Finance tax portion.
No school vouchers, can't relax gun control, can't require millions of people to pre-certify their taxes, and Hillsdale College still doesn't get a special tax break.
No school vouchers, can't relax gun control, can't require millions of people to pre-certify their taxes, and Hillsdale College still doesn't get a special tax break.
🚨JUST NOW: More Provisions Violate Byrd Rule in Republicans’ “One Big, Beautiful Bill”
Updates here: www.budget.senate.gov/ranking-memb...
Updates here: www.budget.senate.gov/ranking-memb...
More Provisions Violate Byrd Rule in Republicans’ “One Big, Beautiful Bill” | U.S. Senate Committee On The Budget
The Official U.S. Senate Committee On The Budget
www.budget.senate.gov
June 27, 2025 at 4:27 AM
Parliamentarian's guidance for the Finance tax portion.
No school vouchers, can't relax gun control, can't require millions of people to pre-certify their taxes, and Hillsdale College still doesn't get a special tax break.
No school vouchers, can't relax gun control, can't require millions of people to pre-certify their taxes, and Hillsdale College still doesn't get a special tax break.
Reposted by Tyler Evilsizer
The sixth set of Byrd droppings is out and WOW - huge and COSTLY loss for Republicans.
Loan repayment changes can only be for new borrowers, and they lost on CSRs, can’t add new Hyde language, plus other stuff.
By my rough calculations, this just cost Republicans $150 billion or more of their cuts
Loan repayment changes can only be for new borrowers, and they lost on CSRs, can’t add new Hyde language, plus other stuff.
By my rough calculations, this just cost Republicans $150 billion or more of their cuts
Republicans’ “One Big, Beautiful Bill” Includes Additional Provisions That Violate the Byrd Rule | U.S. Senate Committee On The Budget
The Official U.S. Senate Committee On The Budget
www.budget.senate.gov
June 26, 2025 at 4:30 AM
The sixth set of Byrd droppings is out and WOW - huge and COSTLY loss for Republicans.
Loan repayment changes can only be for new borrowers, and they lost on CSRs, can’t add new Hyde language, plus other stuff.
By my rough calculations, this just cost Republicans $150 billion or more of their cuts
Loan repayment changes can only be for new borrowers, and they lost on CSRs, can’t add new Hyde language, plus other stuff.
By my rough calculations, this just cost Republicans $150 billion or more of their cuts
More guidance from the Parliamentarian about what cannot be in the reconciliation bill, this time in the Judiciary Committee.
Injunctions against the federal government can't be banned.
We're still waiting for the immigration portions of Judiciary.
www.budget.senate.gov/ranking-memb...
Injunctions against the federal government can't be banned.
We're still waiting for the immigration portions of Judiciary.
www.budget.senate.gov/ranking-memb...
More Provisions in Republicans’ “One Big, Beautiful Bill” Are Subject to Byrd Rule, Parliamentarian Advises | U.S. Senate Committee On The Budget
The Official U.S. Senate Committee On The Budget
www.budget.senate.gov
June 22, 2025 at 4:03 AM
More guidance from the Parliamentarian about what cannot be in the reconciliation bill, this time in the Judiciary Committee.
Injunctions against the federal government can't be banned.
We're still waiting for the immigration portions of Judiciary.
www.budget.senate.gov/ranking-memb...
Injunctions against the federal government can't be banned.
We're still waiting for the immigration portions of Judiciary.
www.budget.senate.gov/ranking-memb...
Reposted by Tyler Evilsizer
NEW: Nonpartisan analysis confirms that the benefits of Trump's "Big, Beautiful" Bill are dramatically skewed toward the wealthy while leaving struggling families WORSE off.
In short: families lose, billionaires win.
In short: families lose, billionaires win.
June 12, 2025 at 10:34 PM
NEW: Nonpartisan analysis confirms that the benefits of Trump's "Big, Beautiful" Bill are dramatically skewed toward the wealthy while leaving struggling families WORSE off.
In short: families lose, billionaires win.
In short: families lose, billionaires win.
Tax cuts do not juice economic growth or come close to paying for themselves.
JCT examined the tax cuts in the reconciliation bill. Economic growth reduces the cost of $3.8 trillion of tax cuts to...$3.7 trillion. GDP growth would increase from 1.83% to 1.86%
JCT examined the tax cuts in the reconciliation bill. Economic growth reduces the cost of $3.8 trillion of tax cuts to...$3.7 trillion. GDP growth would increase from 1.83% to 1.86%
May 22, 2025 at 10:25 PM
Tax cuts do not juice economic growth or come close to paying for themselves.
JCT examined the tax cuts in the reconciliation bill. Economic growth reduces the cost of $3.8 trillion of tax cuts to...$3.7 trillion. GDP growth would increase from 1.83% to 1.86%
JCT examined the tax cuts in the reconciliation bill. Economic growth reduces the cost of $3.8 trillion of tax cuts to...$3.7 trillion. GDP growth would increase from 1.83% to 1.86%
The House reconciliation bill is not fiscally responsible. When Republicans say "it has the most savings of any reconciliation bill ever," they are ignoring all the new spending and tax cuts.
May 16, 2025 at 2:07 PM
The House reconciliation bill is not fiscally responsible. When Republicans say "it has the most savings of any reconciliation bill ever," they are ignoring all the new spending and tax cuts.
Another example of the inefficiencies and red tape caused by DOGE. Rather than giving federal employees credit cards to buy pens and printer paper, DOGE wants another level of approvals. Then they sit on the request so the agency must sit idle
May 12, 2025 at 2:43 PM
Another example of the inefficiencies and red tape caused by DOGE. Rather than giving federal employees credit cards to buy pens and printer paper, DOGE wants another level of approvals. Then they sit on the request so the agency must sit idle
Punchbowl has a schedule for planned House reconciliation markups. Mark your calendars!
April 17, 2025 at 2:02 PM
Punchbowl has a schedule for planned House reconciliation markups. Mark your calendars!
2 data points to watch at 4pm today for gov't finances
Daily Treasury statement - how much was tax day revenue? In 2024, 1/4 of all the electronic tax payments made over the last 6 months came on 4/15.
Major Foreign Holders of Debt - Did the countries holding U.S. debt change from Jan to Feb?
Daily Treasury statement - how much was tax day revenue? In 2024, 1/4 of all the electronic tax payments made over the last 6 months came on 4/15.
Major Foreign Holders of Debt - Did the countries holding U.S. debt change from Jan to Feb?
April 16, 2025 at 2:34 PM
2 data points to watch at 4pm today for gov't finances
Daily Treasury statement - how much was tax day revenue? In 2024, 1/4 of all the electronic tax payments made over the last 6 months came on 4/15.
Major Foreign Holders of Debt - Did the countries holding U.S. debt change from Jan to Feb?
Daily Treasury statement - how much was tax day revenue? In 2024, 1/4 of all the electronic tax payments made over the last 6 months came on 4/15.
Major Foreign Holders of Debt - Did the countries holding U.S. debt change from Jan to Feb?
Reposted by Tyler Evilsizer
ICYMI: CBO’s latest estimate is that the disastrous Republican budget plan will put us $52 TRILLION in debt over the next 30 years.
April 15, 2025 at 1:56 PM
ICYMI: CBO’s latest estimate is that the disastrous Republican budget plan will put us $52 TRILLION in debt over the next 30 years.
CBO: If the Trump tax cuts are renewed with an additional $1.5 trillion in tax cuts, as in the Senate budget, debt will climb, interest rates will rise, and the economy will shrink.
Projections of Deficits and Debt Under an Alternative Scenario for the Budget
CBO analyzed the effects of an alternative budget scenario in which certain provisions of the 2017 tax act were extended permanently and revenues were reduced by additional amounts.
www.cbo.gov
April 11, 2025 at 1:56 AM
CBO: If the Trump tax cuts are renewed with an additional $1.5 trillion in tax cuts, as in the Senate budget, debt will climb, interest rates will rise, and the economy will shrink.
Reposted by Tyler Evilsizer
There’s been a lot of talk recently about cutting funding and staffing at the IRS. New work from the Budget Lab shows that if the IRS shrinks by 50% we estimate that this would result in 350 billion net forgone revenue over the 10-year budget window. 1/ @budgetlab.bsky.social
March 13, 2025 at 12:51 PM
There’s been a lot of talk recently about cutting funding and staffing at the IRS. New work from the Budget Lab shows that if the IRS shrinks by 50% we estimate that this would result in 350 billion net forgone revenue over the 10-year budget window. 1/ @budgetlab.bsky.social
Reposted by Tyler Evilsizer
This Admin is considering shrinking the IRS by 50% to levels not seen since 1960.
@budgetlab.bsky.social estimates this costs at least $400B ($350 net) in uncollected taxes over a decade.
Could be closer to $2.4T if taxpayers comply less when they realize no tax police on the beat.
@budgetlab.bsky.social estimates this costs at least $400B ($350 net) in uncollected taxes over a decade.
Could be closer to $2.4T if taxpayers comply less when they realize no tax police on the beat.
March 13, 2025 at 2:12 PM
This Admin is considering shrinking the IRS by 50% to levels not seen since 1960.
@budgetlab.bsky.social estimates this costs at least $400B ($350 net) in uncollected taxes over a decade.
Could be closer to $2.4T if taxpayers comply less when they realize no tax police on the beat.
@budgetlab.bsky.social estimates this costs at least $400B ($350 net) in uncollected taxes over a decade.
Could be closer to $2.4T if taxpayers comply less when they realize no tax police on the beat.
Reposted by Tyler Evilsizer
Trump said the best way to juice the economy was to pass his tax cuts, but that's dead wrong.
The Congressional Budget Office found that extending Trump's tax cuts would make the economy worse, not better.
But what they definitely would do is give households in the top 0.1% a $278,000 tax cut.
The Congressional Budget Office found that extending Trump's tax cuts would make the economy worse, not better.
But what they definitely would do is give households in the top 0.1% a $278,000 tax cut.
March 5, 2025 at 4:29 AM
Trump said the best way to juice the economy was to pass his tax cuts, but that's dead wrong.
The Congressional Budget Office found that extending Trump's tax cuts would make the economy worse, not better.
But what they definitely would do is give households in the top 0.1% a $278,000 tax cut.
The Congressional Budget Office found that extending Trump's tax cuts would make the economy worse, not better.
But what they definitely would do is give households in the top 0.1% a $278,000 tax cut.
Reposted by Tyler Evilsizer
DOGE has announced a total of 45 Social Security field office closures--so far.
SSA has 1,200 field offices where people can receive in-person help getting benefits, updating records, enrolling in Medicare & more.
They served 30M applicants & beneficiaries in 2023 — nearly 120K *per day*.
SSA has 1,200 field offices where people can receive in-person help getting benefits, updating records, enrolling in Medicare & more.
They served 30M applicants & beneficiaries in 2023 — nearly 120K *per day*.
February 26, 2025 at 9:59 PM
DOGE has announced a total of 45 Social Security field office closures--so far.
SSA has 1,200 field offices where people can receive in-person help getting benefits, updating records, enrolling in Medicare & more.
They served 30M applicants & beneficiaries in 2023 — nearly 120K *per day*.
SSA has 1,200 field offices where people can receive in-person help getting benefits, updating records, enrolling in Medicare & more.
They served 30M applicants & beneficiaries in 2023 — nearly 120K *per day*.
The House Budget doesn't have Senate reconciliation instructions. If the Senate passes it unchanged, there can be no FY25 reconciliation bill. www.politico.com/live-updates...
February 27, 2025 at 1:33 PM
The House Budget doesn't have Senate reconciliation instructions. If the Senate passes it unchanged, there can be no FY25 reconciliation bill. www.politico.com/live-updates...
Elon is claiming that the payments Lutheran Services Florida are "illegal." Those payments are because the organization provides Head Start to children in the community. Does he want it to be illegal to send your child to pre-k?
Here's the funding it received: www.usaspending.gov/recipient/75...
Here's the funding it received: www.usaspending.gov/recipient/75...
February 3, 2025 at 7:45 PM
Elon is claiming that the payments Lutheran Services Florida are "illegal." Those payments are because the organization provides Head Start to children in the community. Does he want it to be illegal to send your child to pre-k?
Here's the funding it received: www.usaspending.gov/recipient/75...
Here's the funding it received: www.usaspending.gov/recipient/75...
Republicans are using crazy accounting to justify their deficit-financed tax cuts.
Try telling Netflix that you no longer need to pay because you used to subscribe and paid for several months so it should be free now.
www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
Try telling Netflix that you no longer need to pay because you used to subscribe and paid for several months so it should be free now.
www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
January 15, 2025 at 7:56 PM
Republicans are using crazy accounting to justify their deficit-financed tax cuts.
Try telling Netflix that you no longer need to pay because you used to subscribe and paid for several months so it should be free now.
www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
Try telling Netflix that you no longer need to pay because you used to subscribe and paid for several months so it should be free now.
www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
Reposted by Tyler Evilsizer
Summed up, the proposed Medicaid cuts in the GOP's menu of reconciliation ideas ($2.3T) make up over one-third of the total proposed cuts (~$5.5T).
But it's not obvious that you can just add these policies up in a 1+1=2 sort of fashion — the policies interact with each other.
But it's not obvious that you can just add these policies up in a 1+1=2 sort of fashion — the policies interact with each other.
January 13, 2025 at 9:59 PM
Summed up, the proposed Medicaid cuts in the GOP's menu of reconciliation ideas ($2.3T) make up over one-third of the total proposed cuts (~$5.5T).
But it's not obvious that you can just add these policies up in a 1+1=2 sort of fashion — the policies interact with each other.
But it's not obvious that you can just add these policies up in a 1+1=2 sort of fashion — the policies interact with each other.
If you're an awesome Comms Director, come work with me at the Senate Budget Committee as we explain to America that it's a bad idea to add $4.6 trillion of debt to give tax cuts to the wealthy.
January 15, 2025 at 12:08 AM
If you're an awesome Comms Director, come work with me at the Senate Budget Committee as we explain to America that it's a bad idea to add $4.6 trillion of debt to give tax cuts to the wealthy.