@ttunguz.bsky.social
In AI, distribution is king. Skills are seizing the crown.
Skills are programs written in English. They tell an agent how to accomplish a task : which APIs to call, what format to use, how to handle edge cases. A skill transforms an agent from a conversationalist into an operator.
Skills are programs written in English. They tell an agent how to accomplish a task : which APIs to call, what format to use, how to handle edge cases. A skill transforms an agent from a conversationalist into an operator.
February 10, 2026 at 3:05 AM
In AI, distribution is king. Skills are seizing the crown.
Skills are programs written in English. They tell an agent how to accomplish a task : which APIs to call, what format to use, how to handle edge cases. A skill transforms an agent from a conversationalist into an operator.
Skills are programs written in English. They tell an agent how to accomplish a task : which APIs to call, what format to use, how to handle edge cases. A skill transforms an agent from a conversationalist into an operator.
Vertical software has fallen 43% this year. DevTools, just 21%. The gap between them, twenty-two percentage points, tells you what markets actually believe about AI.
February 9, 2026 at 10:57 PM
Vertical software has fallen 43% this year. DevTools, just 21%. The gap between them, twenty-two percentage points, tells you what markets actually believe about AI.
Google’s Q4 2025 earnings call revealed a company in the midst of a spectacular AI acceleration.
“Our first-party models like Gemini now process over 10 billion tokens per minute via direct API used by our customers, up from 7 billion last quarter.”
“Our first-party models like Gemini now process over 10 billion tokens per minute via direct API used by our customers, up from 7 billion last quarter.”
February 5, 2026 at 9:59 PM
Google’s Q4 2025 earnings call revealed a company in the midst of a spectacular AI acceleration.
“Our first-party models like Gemini now process over 10 billion tokens per minute via direct API used by our customers, up from 7 billion last quarter.”
“Our first-party models like Gemini now process over 10 billion tokens per minute via direct API used by our customers, up from 7 billion last quarter.”
Leveraged software companies running on leveraged infrastructure. When AI compresses software revenue, the stress doesn’t stop at equity. It cascades into debt.
February 4, 2026 at 6:54 PM
Leveraged software companies running on leveraged infrastructure. When AI compresses software revenue, the stress doesn’t stop at equity. It cascades into debt.
Meta’s first internal AI agent went from zero to thousands of engineers using it daily. That doesn’t happen by accident. On Tuesday, February 25th at 5:30 PM Pacific, the person who built it, Jim Everingham, will explain how.
February 4, 2026 at 12:22 AM
Meta’s first internal AI agent went from zero to thousands of engineers using it daily. That doesn’t happen by accident. On Tuesday, February 25th at 5:30 PM Pacific, the person who built it, Jim Everingham, will explain how.
I spent the weekend crawling Moltbook, the viral AI-only social network where 37,000+ AI agents post & comment while 1 million humans observe. The platform grew from 42 posts per day to 36,905 in 72 hours, an 879x increase.
February 2, 2026 at 9:22 PM
I spent the weekend crawling Moltbook, the viral AI-only social network where 37,000+ AI agents post & comment while 1 million humans observe. The platform grew from 42 posts per day to 36,905 in 72 hours, an 879x increase.
“We are only at the beginning phases of AI diffusion & already Microsoft has built an AI business that is larger than some of our biggest franchises.”
January 29, 2026 at 9:54 PM
“We are only at the beginning phases of AI diffusion & already Microsoft has built an AI business that is larger than some of our biggest franchises.”
In 1908, 253 American automobile manufacturers competed for the market1. By 1929, just 44 remained. The assembly line didn’t just change how cars were made. It changed who got to make them.
January 26, 2026 at 9:01 PM
In 1908, 253 American automobile manufacturers competed for the market1. By 1929, just 44 remained. The assembly line didn’t just change how cars were made. It changed who got to make them.
Talented people get promoted to management. So do talented models. Claude manages code execution. Gemini routes requests across CRM & chat. GPT-5 can coordinate public stock research.
January 22, 2026 at 6:37 PM
Talented people get promoted to management. So do talented models. Claude manages code execution. Gemini routes requests across CRM & chat. GPT-5 can coordinate public stock research.
Will designers design first in a world where AI can code software immediately, or just describe the design? Will large enterprises pay for premium observability when AI can migrate & monitor open source competitors?
January 21, 2026 at 6:30 PM
Will designers design first in a world where AI can code software immediately, or just describe the design? Will large enterprises pay for premium observability when AI can migrate & monitor open source competitors?
After a decade of success, the modern data stack has entered consolidation. What comes next?
The postmodern data stack is AI.
The postmodern data stack is AI.
January 20, 2026 at 5:27 PM
After a decade of success, the modern data stack has entered consolidation. What comes next?
The postmodern data stack is AI.
The postmodern data stack is AI.
AI is NVIDIA’s third climb up a steep slope.
First came gaming in the late 2010s.
Then cryptocurrency.
Now artificial intelligence.
Each wave pushed revenue growth above 50% & with it, P/E ratios surged. P/E ratios rose before the revenue growth materialized.
First came gaming in the late 2010s.
Then cryptocurrency.
Now artificial intelligence.
Each wave pushed revenue growth above 50% & with it, P/E ratios surged. P/E ratios rose before the revenue growth materialized.
January 15, 2026 at 6:09 PM
AI is NVIDIA’s third climb up a steep slope.
First came gaming in the late 2010s.
Then cryptocurrency.
Now artificial intelligence.
Each wave pushed revenue growth above 50% & with it, P/E ratios surged. P/E ratios rose before the revenue growth materialized.
First came gaming in the late 2010s.
Then cryptocurrency.
Now artificial intelligence.
Each wave pushed revenue growth above 50% & with it, P/E ratios surged. P/E ratios rose before the revenue growth materialized.
“[Silicon Valley] is the biggest, most volatile petri dish of raw capitalism on the planet.” So what lessons does a successful short-seller living here have? As founder of Crown Capital Management, Scott Fearon has shorted the stocks of over 200 companies.
January 14, 2026 at 7:50 PM
“[Silicon Valley] is the biggest, most volatile petri dish of raw capitalism on the planet.” So what lessons does a successful short-seller living here have? As founder of Crown Capital Management, Scott Fearon has shorted the stocks of over 200 companies.
I asked Claude Cowork to read my tools folder. Eleven steps later, it understood how I work.
January 13, 2026 at 9:33 PM
I asked Claude Cowork to read my tools folder. Eleven steps later, it understood how I work.
n 2012, we cared that we used software. Today we care how we use it.
The difference is trajectory.
In the last decade, adopting software was the priority. Moving from on-premise to the cloud or digitizing a manual workflow promised productivity gains. Adoption was the finish line.
The difference is trajectory.
In the last decade, adopting software was the priority. Moving from on-premise to the cloud or digitizing a manual workflow promised productivity gains. Adoption was the finish line.
January 10, 2026 at 12:17 AM
n 2012, we cared that we used software. Today we care how we use it.
The difference is trajectory.
In the last decade, adopting software was the priority. Moving from on-premise to the cloud or digitizing a manual workflow promised productivity gains. Adoption was the finish line.
The difference is trajectory.
In the last decade, adopting software was the priority. Moving from on-premise to the cloud or digitizing a manual workflow promised productivity gains. Adoption was the finish line.
For decades, the to-do list has been a catalog of debt, a deceptively thin list of items to do, with icebergs of work hidden beneath the surface.
AI transforms tasks to work that has already been done.
AI transforms tasks to work that has already been done.
January 5, 2026 at 6:19 PM
For decades, the to-do list has been a catalog of debt, a deceptively thin list of items to do, with icebergs of work hidden beneath the surface.
AI transforms tasks to work that has already been done.
AI transforms tasks to work that has already been done.
Motive, the AI-powered fleet management company formerly known as KeepTruckin, filed their S-1 this week.
The company has grown tremendously & in this post, we compare it to Samsara at IPO :
The company has grown tremendously & in this post, we compare it to Samsara at IPO :
Motive S-1 : How 7 Key Metrics Stack Up Against Samsara
Analysis of Motive's IPO filing : $501M ARR, 70% gross margin, and 126% enterprise NDR. How fleet management's #2 player compares to Samsara at IPO.
tomtunguz.com
December 30, 2025 at 2:47 AM
Motive, the AI-powered fleet management company formerly known as KeepTruckin, filed their S-1 this week.
The company has grown tremendously & in this post, we compare it to Samsara at IPO :
The company has grown tremendously & in this post, we compare it to Samsara at IPO :
Thursday is the new Monday for podcast producers. Analyzing hundreds of tech & VC podcasts over six weeks this fall through MotherDuck’s MCP server, I found 42% of episodes drop mid-week, between Thursday & Friday. Sunday? A publishing desert at just 3%.
Here’s what else the data reveals.
Here’s what else the data reveals.
December 18, 2025 at 10:32 PM
Thursday is the new Monday for podcast producers. Analyzing hundreds of tech & VC podcasts over six weeks this fall through MotherDuck’s MCP server, I found 42% of episodes drop mid-week, between Thursday & Friday. Sunday? A publishing desert at just 3%.
Here’s what else the data reveals.
Here’s what else the data reveals.
Gemini 3 Flash represents a step function increase in model deflation : a gauntlet thrown.
December 17, 2025 at 10:57 PM
Gemini 3 Flash represents a step function increase in model deflation : a gauntlet thrown.
Despite open-source AI models being 10-100x cheaper, proprietary providers haven’t lost pricing power. OpenRouter’s data reveals a market splitting in two.
December 16, 2025 at 10:42 PM
Despite open-source AI models being 10-100x cheaper, proprietary providers haven’t lost pricing power. OpenRouter’s data reveals a market splitting in two.
It’s not often that venture capital thinks about the credit markets. I remember becoming a venture capitalist three months before Lehman fell, when mortgage securities topped the news of the global financial crisis.
December 15, 2025 at 6:37 PM
It’s not often that venture capital thinks about the credit markets. I remember becoming a venture capitalist three months before Lehman fell, when mortgage securities topped the news of the global financial crisis.
No, founders are not adopting Bryan Johnson’s regimen to reverse aging. Quite the opposite : the average founder raising capital ages six months every year.
December 12, 2025 at 8:38 PM
No, founders are not adopting Bryan Johnson’s regimen to reverse aging. Quite the opposite : the average founder raising capital ages six months every year.
Enterprises learned a lesson from cloud data warehouses. They handed over both data & compute, then watched as the most strategic asset in their business, how they operate, became someone else’s leverage, which created an opportunity for Iceberg.
Fool me once…
Fool me once…
December 10, 2025 at 8:15 PM
Enterprises learned a lesson from cloud data warehouses. They handed over both data & compute, then watched as the most strategic asset in their business, how they operate, became someone else’s leverage, which created an opportunity for Iceberg.
Fool me once…
Fool me once…
A new study from OpenAI shows AI saves the average white-collar worker 54 minutes per day. Where does all that value go?
December 9, 2025 at 6:10 PM
A new study from OpenAI shows AI saves the average white-collar worker 54 minutes per day. Where does all that value go?
Streaming is the next category to consolidate within the modern data stack. IBM announced its intent to acquire Confluent.
December 8, 2025 at 8:31 PM
Streaming is the next category to consolidate within the modern data stack. IBM announced its intent to acquire Confluent.