@ttunguz.bsky.social
Two revelations this week have shaken the narrative in AI : Nvidia’s earnings & this tweet about Gemini.
The AI industry spent 2025 convinced that pre-training scaling laws had hit a wall. Models weren’t improving just from adding more compute during training.
The AI industry spent 2025 convinced that pre-training scaling laws had hit a wall. Models weren’t improving just from adding more compute during training.
November 20, 2025 at 8:17 PM
Two revelations this week have shaken the narrative in AI : Nvidia’s earnings & this tweet about Gemini.
The AI industry spent 2025 convinced that pre-training scaling laws had hit a wall. Models weren’t improving just from adding more compute during training.
The AI industry spent 2025 convinced that pre-training scaling laws had hit a wall. Models weren’t improving just from adding more compute during training.
70% of production AI teams use open source models. 72.5% connect agents to databases, not chat interfaces. This is what 375 technical builders actually ship - & it looks nothing like Twitter AI.
November 17, 2025 at 11:30 PM
70% of production AI teams use open source models. 72.5% connect agents to databases, not chat interfaces. This is what 375 technical builders actually ship - & it looks nothing like Twitter AI.
Ten months ago, DeepSeek collapsed AI training costs by 90% using distillation - transferring knowledge from larger models to smaller ones at a fraction of the cost.
November 13, 2025 at 10:22 PM
Ten months ago, DeepSeek collapsed AI training costs by 90% using distillation - transferring knowledge from larger models to smaller ones at a fraction of the cost.
By Monday lunch, I had burned through my Claude code credits. I’d been warned ; damn the budget, full prompting ahead.
November 12, 2025 at 9:51 PM
By Monday lunch, I had burned through my Claude code credits. I’d been warned ; damn the budget, full prompting ahead.
Datadog is becoming a platform company, & its Q3 2025 results underscore how successful this transition is. If nothing else, the consistency around 25% growth for the last 12 quarters exemplifies this point.
November 10, 2025 at 6:43 PM
Datadog is becoming a platform company, & its Q3 2025 results underscore how successful this transition is. If nothing else, the consistency around 25% growth for the last 12 quarters exemplifies this point.
Just how much are we spending on AI?
Compared to other massive infrastructure projects, AI is the sixth largest in US history, so far.
Compared to other massive infrastructure projects, AI is the sixth largest in US history, so far.
November 6, 2025 at 11:41 PM
Just how much are we spending on AI?
Compared to other massive infrastructure projects, AI is the sixth largest in US history, so far.
Compared to other massive infrastructure projects, AI is the sixth largest in US history, so far.
I sleep better knowing my agents work through the night. Less work for me in the morning.
My podcast processor transcribes & analyzes conversations. I started on my laptop, needed a little database to collect podcast data & metadata, & booted up a DuckDB instance.
My podcast processor transcribes & analyzes conversations. I started on my laptop, needed a little database to collect podcast data & metadata, & booted up a DuckDB instance.
October 31, 2025 at 11:39 PM
I sleep better knowing my agents work through the night. Less work for me in the morning.
My podcast processor transcribes & analyzes conversations. I started on my laptop, needed a little database to collect podcast data & metadata, & booted up a DuckDB instance.
My podcast processor transcribes & analyzes conversations. I started on my laptop, needed a little database to collect podcast data & metadata, & booted up a DuckDB instance.
Microsoft & Google both announced earnings yesterday, & the scale of AI adoption remains staggering. The infrastructure businesses are growing at accelerating growth rates that are the envy of businesses one-hundredth the size.
October 30, 2025 at 4:21 PM
Microsoft & Google both announced earnings yesterday, & the scale of AI adoption remains staggering. The infrastructure businesses are growing at accelerating growth rates that are the envy of businesses one-hundredth the size.
As the world follows every whisper & rumor from AI, what has happened to public SaaS?
The answer is not much! All the fun is in the private markets.
Multiples haven’t moved outside of a narrow band since the post-Covid crash in 2022.
The answer is not much! All the fun is in the private markets.
Multiples haven’t moved outside of a narrow band since the post-Covid crash in 2022.
October 27, 2025 at 7:19 PM
As the world follows every whisper & rumor from AI, what has happened to public SaaS?
The answer is not much! All the fun is in the private markets.
Multiples haven’t moved outside of a narrow band since the post-Covid crash in 2022.
The answer is not much! All the fun is in the private markets.
Multiples haven’t moved outside of a narrow band since the post-Covid crash in 2022.
There’s this notion that product market fit is this binary condition that once you pass the gate, you’re done. And that’s no longer the case. Product market fit is like United Miles. You continue to fly to maintain 1K.
October 23, 2025 at 7:23 PM
There’s this notion that product market fit is this binary condition that once you pass the gate, you’re done. And that’s no longer the case. Product market fit is like United Miles. You continue to fly to maintain 1K.
When I worked at Google, I was lucky to collaborate with some of the brightest machine-learning (ML) engineers. They worked on feature engineering. By picking the factors to guide the ML model, their advances could generate tens to hundreds of millions of additional revenue.
October 20, 2025 at 7:19 PM
When I worked at Google, I was lucky to collaborate with some of the brightest machine-learning (ML) engineers. They worked on feature engineering. By picking the factors to guide the ML model, their advances could generate tens to hundreds of millions of additional revenue.
It’s 9:30 AM. Do you know where your agent is?
As we enter the era of agentic AI, this is an increasingly important question. ChatGPT launched the consumer use of AI, compressing all of human knowledge into a single model. Now we are asking AI to act on our behalf at work.
As we enter the era of agentic AI, this is an increasingly important question. ChatGPT launched the consumer use of AI, compressing all of human knowledge into a single model. Now we are asking AI to act on our behalf at work.
October 17, 2025 at 9:13 PM
It’s 9:30 AM. Do you know where your agent is?
As we enter the era of agentic AI, this is an increasingly important question. ChatGPT launched the consumer use of AI, compressing all of human knowledge into a single model. Now we are asking AI to act on our behalf at work.
As we enter the era of agentic AI, this is an increasingly important question. ChatGPT launched the consumer use of AI, compressing all of human knowledge into a single model. Now we are asking AI to act on our behalf at work.
I asked Claude this morning about the most important news in tech. A few follow-up questions about Salesforce’s Dreamforce, Samsung’s XR headset, & TSMC earnings later, I popped over to ChatGPT Pulse. It suggested some updates about the Fed’s rates policy.
October 16, 2025 at 4:58 PM
I asked Claude this morning about the most important news in tech. A few follow-up questions about Salesforce’s Dreamforce, Samsung’s XR headset, & TSMC earnings later, I popped over to ChatGPT Pulse. It suggested some updates about the Fed’s rates policy.
Why was the Fivetran-dbt merger all but inevitable?
Fivetran & dbt Labs announced their merger yesterday. The all-stock deal combines two companies into an entity approaching $600 million in ARR.
Fivetran & dbt Labs announced their merger yesterday. The all-stock deal combines two companies into an entity approaching $600 million in ARR.
October 14, 2025 at 10:03 PM
Why was the Fivetran-dbt merger all but inevitable?
Fivetran & dbt Labs announced their merger yesterday. The all-stock deal combines two companies into an entity approaching $600 million in ARR.
Fivetran & dbt Labs announced their merger yesterday. The all-stock deal combines two companies into an entity approaching $600 million in ARR.
Philip Schmid dropped an astounding figure yesterday about Google’s AI scale : 1,300 trillion tokens per month (1.3 quadrillion - first time I’ve ever used that unit!).
Now that we have three data points on Google’s token processing, we can chart the progress.
Now that we have three data points on Google’s token processing, we can chart the progress.
October 10, 2025 at 10:00 PM
Philip Schmid dropped an astounding figure yesterday about Google’s AI scale : 1,300 trillion tokens per month (1.3 quadrillion - first time I’ve ever used that unit!).
Now that we have three data points on Google’s token processing, we can chart the progress.
Now that we have three data points on Google’s token processing, we can chart the progress.
Watching the OpenAI Dev Day videos, I listened as Thibault, engineering lead for Codex, announced “Codex is now a senior engineer.”
AI entered the organization as an intern - uncertain & inexperienced. Over the summer, engineering leaders said treat it like a junior engineer.
AI entered the organization as an intern - uncertain & inexperienced. Over the summer, engineering leaders said treat it like a junior engineer.
October 9, 2025 at 5:03 PM
Watching the OpenAI Dev Day videos, I listened as Thibault, engineering lead for Codex, announced “Codex is now a senior engineer.”
AI entered the organization as an intern - uncertain & inexperienced. Over the summer, engineering leaders said treat it like a junior engineer.
AI entered the organization as an intern - uncertain & inexperienced. Over the summer, engineering leaders said treat it like a junior engineer.
Chris Klayko brings over two decades of sales leadership experience transforming technology companies from promising startups to multi-billion dollar enterprises. As SVP of Sales at Databricks, Chris leads the charge in democratizing data & AI for organizations worldwide.
October 7, 2025 at 6:32 PM
Chris Klayko brings over two decades of sales leadership experience transforming technology companies from promising startups to multi-billion dollar enterprises. As SVP of Sales at Databricks, Chris leads the charge in democratizing data & AI for organizations worldwide.
Walk into a bookstore’s self-help section , rows of productivity systems : Getting Things Done, Bullet Journal, Zettelkasten. Each promises transformation—if you commit weeks. The market thrives , hundreds of new titles annually.
October 6, 2025 at 6:27 PM
Walk into a bookstore’s self-help section , rows of productivity systems : Getting Things Done, Bullet Journal, Zettelkasten. Each promises transformation—if you commit weeks. The market thrives , hundreds of new titles annually.
I discovered I was designing my AI tools backwards.
September 30, 2025 at 5:13 PM
I discovered I was designing my AI tools backwards.
“The way to do a piece of writing is three or four times over, never once.”
Writing is hard. John McPhee, who invented literary nonfiction that reads like a novel, developed a four-draft writing method that transforms chaotic ideas into compelling narratives.
Writing is hard. John McPhee, who invented literary nonfiction that reads like a novel, developed a four-draft writing method that transforms chaotic ideas into compelling narratives.
September 29, 2025 at 5:56 PM
“The way to do a piece of writing is three or four times over, never once.”
Writing is hard. John McPhee, who invented literary nonfiction that reads like a novel, developed a four-draft writing method that transforms chaotic ideas into compelling narratives.
Writing is hard. John McPhee, who invented literary nonfiction that reads like a novel, developed a four-draft writing method that transforms chaotic ideas into compelling narratives.
Every portfolio manager knows the efficient frontier - the set of optimal portfolios offering maximum returns for given risk levels. What if AI prompts had their own efficient frontier?
September 26, 2025 at 9:41 PM
Every portfolio manager knows the efficient frontier - the set of optimal portfolios offering maximum returns for given risk levels. What if AI prompts had their own efficient frontier?
How long & how quickly can a business compound?
This is a question every investor asks of every business, public or private.
In the 2010s, Slack & Atlassian became titans. On the day Salesforce announced its intent to acquire Slack, it was equally valuable to Atlassian at ~$27b.
This is a question every investor asks of every business, public or private.
In the 2010s, Slack & Atlassian became titans. On the day Salesforce announced its intent to acquire Slack, it was equally valuable to Atlassian at ~$27b.
September 25, 2025 at 7:56 PM
How long & how quickly can a business compound?
This is a question every investor asks of every business, public or private.
In the 2010s, Slack & Atlassian became titans. On the day Salesforce announced its intent to acquire Slack, it was equally valuable to Atlassian at ~$27b.
This is a question every investor asks of every business, public or private.
In the 2010s, Slack & Atlassian became titans. On the day Salesforce announced its intent to acquire Slack, it was equally valuable to Atlassian at ~$27b.
OpenAI hit $12 billion ARR within five years of ChatGPT’s launch. Anthropic reached $200 million in revenue in January 2024. Meanwhile, Salesforce took ten years to reach $1 billion ARR.
September 24, 2025 at 11:50 PM
OpenAI hit $12 billion ARR within five years of ChatGPT’s launch. Anthropic reached $200 million in revenue in January 2024. Meanwhile, Salesforce took ten years to reach $1 billion ARR.
You call the airline to change your delayed flight. The agent says he can’t help—the computer won’t let him. You ask to speak to his manager. She says the same thing...
September 22, 2025 at 9:31 PM
You call the airline to change your delayed flight. The agent says he can’t help—the computer won’t let him. You ask to speak to his manager. She says the same thing...
We build teams in pyramids today. One leader, several managers, many individual contributors.
In the AI world, what team configuration makes the most sense? Here are some alternatives :
In the AI world, what team configuration makes the most sense? Here are some alternatives :
September 19, 2025 at 7:04 PM
We build teams in pyramids today. One leader, several managers, many individual contributors.
In the AI world, what team configuration makes the most sense? Here are some alternatives :
In the AI world, what team configuration makes the most sense? Here are some alternatives :