Tim Dowse
@timdowse.bsky.social
Consultant, after 40 years with FCO, Cabinet Office, HM Treasury. Specialties: national security, defence, geopolitical analysis.
Reposted by Tim Dowse
Xi’s purge of top Chinese generals has cost Western governments a key contact and deepened fears that the PLA is becoming even more walled-off – Bloomberg: ‘chief of the PLA’s Joint Staff Department [Liu] had been the most effective point of contact for managing risks and preventing miscalculation’
Diplomats Worry Xi’s Purge Will Curb Critical Contact With China
Xi Jinping’s purge of top Chinese generals has cost Western governments a key contact and deepened fears that the People’s Liberation Army is becoming even more walled-off from contact.
www.bloomberg.com
January 27, 2026 at 10:19 PM
Xi’s purge of top Chinese generals has cost Western governments a key contact and deepened fears that the PLA is becoming even more walled-off – Bloomberg: ‘chief of the PLA’s Joint Staff Department [Liu] had been the most effective point of contact for managing risks and preventing miscalculation’
@shashj.bsky.social on BBC Radio 4 this morning: "I still feel we are on a path towards a large, substantial US military strike [on Iran]".
I wonder if the Trump Administration's problems in Minnesota make this more or less likely?
I wonder if the Trump Administration's problems in Minnesota make this more or less likely?
January 27, 2026 at 7:56 AM
@shashj.bsky.social on BBC Radio 4 this morning: "I still feel we are on a path towards a large, substantial US military strike [on Iran]".
I wonder if the Trump Administration's problems in Minnesota make this more or less likely?
I wonder if the Trump Administration's problems in Minnesota make this more or less likely?
Reposted by Tim Dowse
This is possibly my favourite quote about politics. paw.princeton.edu/article/stil...
January 26, 2026 at 10:59 AM
This is possibly my favourite quote about politics. paw.princeton.edu/article/stil...
Reposted by Tim Dowse
The UN has been here eight decades. We’re sticking around.
January 26, 2026 at 9:48 AM
The UN has been here eight decades. We’re sticking around.
Reposted by Tim Dowse
Open Letter to Americans
January 24, 2026 at 1:35 PM
Open Letter to Americans
Since we are in that sort of mindset today: I wonder how many Americans had family members who fought and died in a war to end the institution of slavery.
The National Park Service dismantled exhibits about slavery at the President’s House Site in Independence National Historical Park, provoking a lawsuit from Philadelphia Mayor Cherelle L. Parker’s administration.
The slavery exhibits at the President’s House have been removed following Trump administration push
President Donald Trump and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum ordered content at national parks that “inappropriately disparage” the U.S. to be reviewed and potentially removed.
www.inquirer.com
January 23, 2026 at 2:08 PM
Since we are in that sort of mindset today: I wonder how many Americans had family members who fought and died in a war to end the institution of slavery.
After four winters of Russian attacks on energy infrastructure, I’d assumed that this sort of support to Ukraine from its European partners was SOP by now. The fact it is considered newsworthy suggests that isn’t the case. Why not?
⚡️ Poland urgently sends generators and heaters to Ukraine
Poland urgently sends generators and heaters to Ukraine
Poland will deliver 379 electricity generators and 18 heaters from the Government Agency for Strategic Reserves to Ukraine in the coming days, following a decision by Prime Minister Donald Tusk.
www.pravda.com.ua
January 23, 2026 at 12:28 PM
After four winters of Russian attacks on energy infrastructure, I’d assumed that this sort of support to Ukraine from its European partners was SOP by now. The fact it is considered newsworthy suggests that isn’t the case. Why not?
Reposted by Tim Dowse
France seizes suspected Russian 'shadow fleet' tanker in the Mediterranean
France seizes suspected Russian 'shadow fleet' tanker in the Mediterranean
The vessel, named Grinch, was stopped by the French navy as it travelled through waters between Spain and Morocco.
www.bbc.com
January 22, 2026 at 6:42 PM
France seizes suspected Russian 'shadow fleet' tanker in the Mediterranean
This needs repeating, again and again, until the President understands and accepts it. (And by the way, who is telling him otherwise?)
NATO did not "stay a little back, off the front lines."
Danish, British and Estonian troops served in Helmand, and Canadian forces in Kandahar - the two most dangerous Afghan provinces.
Denmark, UK, Estonia & Canada suffered amongst the highest per‑capita soldier death rates when defending the US.
Danish, British and Estonian troops served in Helmand, and Canadian forces in Kandahar - the two most dangerous Afghan provinces.
Denmark, UK, Estonia & Canada suffered amongst the highest per‑capita soldier death rates when defending the US.
Trump on NATO: "I've always said, will they be there if we ever needed them? That's really the ultimate test. I'm not sure of that. We've never needed them. They'll say they sent some troops to Afghanistan and this or that. And they did. They stayed a little back, off the front lines."
January 22, 2026 at 2:31 PM
This needs repeating, again and again, until the President understands and accepts it. (And by the way, who is telling him otherwise?)
Reposted by Tim Dowse
Four VCs for UK forces in Iraq and Afghanistan. Two of them posthumous. An obvious question for his British admirers.
Trump on NATO: "I've always said, will they be there if we ever needed them? That's really the ultimate test. I'm not sure of that. We've never needed them. They'll say they sent some troops to Afghanistan and this or that. And they did. They stayed a little back, off the front lines."
January 22, 2026 at 1:38 PM
Four VCs for UK forces in Iraq and Afghanistan. Two of them posthumous. An obvious question for his British admirers.
Memory cuts two ways. President Trump has been clear that he wants to go down in history. He may well do so - just not in the way he thinks.
Trump to Europe on Greenland: "You can yes and we will be very appreciative or you can say no and we will remember"
January 21, 2026 at 4:29 PM
Memory cuts two ways. President Trump has been clear that he wants to go down in history. He may well do so - just not in the way he thinks.
Reposted by Tim Dowse
“Greenland is to Trump as Ukraine is to Putin”
“The crisis is not impending, it is here”
Fiona Hill at our event this evening
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/event/trump-...
“The crisis is not impending, it is here”
Fiona Hill at our event this evening
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/event/trump-...
What does Trump mean for relations between the UK and Europe, and the rest of the world? | Institute for Government
Sir Simon Fraser, Fiona Hill and Anand Menon join us to discuss the impact of Trump's presidency on the UK and Europe
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk
January 20, 2026 at 6:40 PM
“Greenland is to Trump as Ukraine is to Putin”
“The crisis is not impending, it is here”
Fiona Hill at our event this evening
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/event/trump-...
“The crisis is not impending, it is here”
Fiona Hill at our event this evening
www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/event/trump-...
There is a limit to the value of this sort of negotiating tactic. At some point the law of diminishing returns is going to kick in.
BREAKING Trump threatens 200% tariffs on French wine and Champagne over France's intentions to decline invitation to join his Board of Peace
January 20, 2026 at 9:33 AM
There is a limit to the value of this sort of negotiating tactic. At some point the law of diminishing returns is going to kick in.
If anyone wants to see a Minister absolutely on top of his brief, I recommend watching Victoria Derbyshire’s @bbcnewsnight.bsky.social interview with Douglas Alexander tonight, about Greenland.
January 19, 2026 at 11:13 PM
If anyone wants to see a Minister absolutely on top of his brief, I recommend watching Victoria Derbyshire’s @bbcnewsnight.bsky.social interview with Douglas Alexander tonight, about Greenland.
Will Putin be subject to the reported $1bn admission fee?
Trump has invited Putin to join Gaza’s ‘Board of Peace’, says Kremlin – Europe live
Trump has invited Putin to join Gaza’s ‘Board of Peace’, says Kremlin – Europe live
Russia seeking to ‘clarify all the nuances’ of offer to join board meant to oversee governance and reconstruction of territory
In a nod to Trump’s efforts on Ukraine, Starmer says he recognises the US president’s role in pushing for ceasefire there – as he says “we will work closely with the United States, Ukraine and our other allies to apply pressure where it belongs: on Putin.”
In his strongest criticism of Trump yet, Starmer goes on to say:
A trade war is in no one’s interest, and my job is always to act in the UK’s national interest. Continue reading...
www.theguardian.com
January 19, 2026 at 11:54 AM
Will Putin be subject to the reported $1bn admission fee?
Reposted by Tim Dowse
Today's newsletter: the one silver lining in a very dark cloud is that we should move away from our input target of 'we will spend 3.5 per cent of GDP by 2035' to a capability target for defence:
Defence policy falters when given the wrong prompt
If the UK can no longer soothe the US with its pledges, it should refocus on what spending targets are actually for
www.ft.com
January 19, 2026 at 11:32 AM
Today's newsletter: the one silver lining in a very dark cloud is that we should move away from our input target of 'we will spend 3.5 per cent of GDP by 2035' to a capability target for defence:
Reposted by Tim Dowse
After long negotiations, a UN-led mission delivered aid to El Fasher this week. The first of many missions.
We’re working to expand lifesaving aid across Darfur. With safe access and funding, we will deliver. Thank you to all partners who helped make this happen. #Sudan
We’re working to expand lifesaving aid across Darfur. With safe access and funding, we will deliver. Thank you to all partners who helped make this happen. #Sudan
January 16, 2026 at 10:47 AM
After long negotiations, a UN-led mission delivered aid to El Fasher this week. The first of many missions.
We’re working to expand lifesaving aid across Darfur. With safe access and funding, we will deliver. Thank you to all partners who helped make this happen. #Sudan
We’re working to expand lifesaving aid across Darfur. With safe access and funding, we will deliver. Thank you to all partners who helped make this happen. #Sudan
Reposted by Tim Dowse
The claim is contradicted by Denmark - as this post should have pointed out
White House claims ‘acquisition of Greenland’ is purpose of working group – Europe live
White House claims ‘acquisition of Greenland’ is purpose of working group – Europe live
Denmark’s foreign secretary has denied the assertion and since reiterated that discussion over territory is a red line.
After meeting with the US vice-president JD Vance and state secretary Marco Rubio on Wednesday, the Danish and Greenlandic foreign ministers announced a new diplomatic channel to discuss their “fundamental” disagreements over Greenland: namely, a working group with the US.
Well, it turns out the White House does not see it exactly in the same way. Continue reading...
www.theguardian.com
January 16, 2026 at 10:34 AM
The claim is contradicted by Denmark - as this post should have pointed out
Every report of this topic makes it clear that the Danes care about what the *people* of Greenland want, while the US is only interested in the real estate. Exactly the same as the UK position with regard to the Falkland Islands. No wonder HMG is backing Denmark.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt says the Danes agreed to form a working group to discuss the surrender of Greenland to Trump. "No we didn't" says the Danish foreign minister, indeed "there will be no discussion of turnover." www.berlingske.dk/indland/det-...
Det Hvide Hus: Arbejdsgruppe skal drøfte »erhvervelsen af Grønland« – Løkke afviser
Onsdagens møde og NATO-allieredes styrker i Grønland ændrer ikke Trumps ambitioner om, at USA skal erhverve Grønland, lyder det torsdag aften fra Det Hvide Hus.
www.berlingske.dk
January 16, 2026 at 10:24 AM
Every report of this topic makes it clear that the Danes care about what the *people* of Greenland want, while the US is only interested in the real estate. Exactly the same as the UK position with regard to the Falkland Islands. No wonder HMG is backing Denmark.
Reposted by Tim Dowse
Amid all the damage Trump has done in the first year of his second term, the destruction of America’s diplomatic capacity has received relatively little attention. But it could prove among the most costly, warns @jwmueller-pu.bsky.social. bit.ly/49Fj0gb
The High Cost of Trump’s Amateur Diplomats
Jan-Werner Mueller surveys the damage from the Trump administration’s gutting of US diplomatic capacity and expertise.
bit.ly
January 13, 2026 at 2:51 PM
Amid all the damage Trump has done in the first year of his second term, the destruction of America’s diplomatic capacity has received relatively little attention. But it could prove among the most costly, warns @jwmueller-pu.bsky.social. bit.ly/49Fj0gb
Hmm. So should we now expect claims that any action by foreign governments to restrain the excesses of X/Grok is a threat to US national security?
U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth announced the integration of Elon Musk's xAI platform, Grok, into military networks as part of a new "AI acceleration strategy" during a visit to SpaceX.
January 13, 2026 at 7:24 AM
Hmm. So should we now expect claims that any action by foreign governments to restrain the excesses of X/Grok is a threat to US national security?
Not much makes me watch BBC Newsnight these days, but one thing that does is when they have Sir Alex Younger on the panel. Excellent as usual tonight on #Iran (when he could get a word in edgeways). Agreed with everything he said. Matthew Syed also made some good points. Worth a look.
January 12, 2026 at 11:07 PM
Not much makes me watch BBC Newsnight these days, but one thing that does is when they have Sir Alex Younger on the panel. Excellent as usual tonight on #Iran (when he could get a word in edgeways). Agreed with everything he said. Matthew Syed also made some good points. Worth a look.
Getting my dad's car started on a cold morning by hand-cranking it when the battery was flat. [A Singer Roadster, sadly disposed of in 1964 in favour of a much less fun Morris Minor convertible.]
Without revealing your actual age,what's something you remember that if you told a younger person they wouldn't understand?
January 9, 2026 at 12:16 PM
Getting my dad's car started on a cold morning by hand-cranking it when the battery was flat. [A Singer Roadster, sadly disposed of in 1964 in favour of a much less fun Morris Minor convertible.]
I appreciate that his answer might be that the US governnent still supports these objectives but thinks there are more effective or efficient ways to pursue them. Which might be true - but is not what the EO says. And in that case he should be asked to specify what they are doing.
I hope someone will ask Secretary/NSA Rubio to explain in what way supporting UN work to protect children in armed conflict or to counter sexual violence in conflict is "contrary to the interests of the US". (NB: The latter was a personal cause espoused by William Hague when UK Foreign Secretary).
Trump has withdrawn the US from over 60 non-UN & UN organisations, including the Department of Economic and Social Affairs, ECOSOC commissions, Residual Mechanism for International Criminal Tribunals (MICT), and the International Law Commission.
This is insanity.
www.whitehouse.gov/presidential...
This is insanity.
www.whitehouse.gov/presidential...
January 8, 2026 at 8:29 AM
I appreciate that his answer might be that the US governnent still supports these objectives but thinks there are more effective or efficient ways to pursue them. Which might be true - but is not what the EO says. And in that case he should be asked to specify what they are doing.
I hope someone will ask Secretary/NSA Rubio to explain in what way supporting UN work to protect children in armed conflict or to counter sexual violence in conflict is "contrary to the interests of the US". (NB: The latter was a personal cause espoused by William Hague when UK Foreign Secretary).
Trump has withdrawn the US from over 60 non-UN & UN organisations, including the Department of Economic and Social Affairs, ECOSOC commissions, Residual Mechanism for International Criminal Tribunals (MICT), and the International Law Commission.
This is insanity.
www.whitehouse.gov/presidential...
This is insanity.
www.whitehouse.gov/presidential...
Withdrawing the United States from International Organizations, Conventions, and Treaties that Are Contrary to the Interests of the United States
MEMORANDUM FOR THE HEADS OF EXECUTIVE DEPARTMENTS AND AGENCIES By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United
www.whitehouse.gov
January 8, 2026 at 8:14 AM
I hope someone will ask Secretary/NSA Rubio to explain in what way supporting UN work to protect children in armed conflict or to counter sexual violence in conflict is "contrary to the interests of the US". (NB: The latter was a personal cause espoused by William Hague when UK Foreign Secretary).