Tim Dowse
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Tim Dowse
@timdowse.bsky.social
Consultant, after 40 years with FCO, Cabinet Office, HM Treasury. Specialties: national security, defence, geopolitical analysis.
As I recall, in the second half of the 2000s the hope was not for a democratic China, but that it would become a “responsible stakeholder” in the rules-based international system. Bob Zoellick’s expression.

In fact, China does now present itself as supporting global rules - but not *our* rules.
November 10, 2025 at 10:41 PM
Hard to see how he can produce credible evidence that Panorama damaged him reputationally, much less financially. Shortly after the broadcast he won an election.
November 10, 2025 at 10:20 PM
To listen to all the coverage today, you would think that "The BBC" only means BBC News, which is obviously ridiculous. If you look at their content in the round you might get a more balanced picture of public opinion. They have just had one of the most popular TV entertainment shows of the year.
November 10, 2025 at 6:11 PM
Also HIGNFY.
November 9, 2025 at 8:10 PM
I have no idea. Kremlinology today is even more of a black art than it was during the Cold War. (Though I do wonder whether Lavrov may be getting blamed for failing to get the Budapest summit off the ground.)
November 9, 2025 at 4:08 PM
You can be a Russian nationalist without being a Russian imperialist. But I'm not sure Putin's circle of oligarchs and apparatchiks believe in much beyond their personal survival and enrichment. It's why I have a (slim) hope that what follows him might not be simply more of the same.
November 8, 2025 at 12:31 PM
Yes. I suppose the big question is whether Putinism survives Putin, or goes the way of Stalinism. Surkov apart, I don't get the impression that many of Putin's inner circle subscribe to his ideology, such as it is. (Or indeed, to any ideology.)
November 8, 2025 at 12:08 PM
It's an interesting question. A lot depends on how he goes.

Things can change: in the 1980s one often saw comments to the effect that Central Europeans were so used to one-party rule that they wouldn't adjust to genuine democracy. When they got the chance they queued for hours to cast a free vote.
November 8, 2025 at 11:43 AM
Probably not. Though actually, the Nigerian government might welcome more active US support against Boko Haram/ISWA, provided it was coordinated, not unilateral.
November 7, 2025 at 3:15 PM
So will Russia return the occupied Georgian territories?
November 7, 2025 at 9:50 AM
How interesting - the subject is mentioned in Chamberlain's 'diary letters' to his sisters, which I'm currently reading. (NC, as Chancellor, predictably thought HMG had got the best of the bargain, in part because it included an Irish order for 40,000 telephones previously going to Germany!)
November 5, 2025 at 10:11 PM
And yet it remains very unclear exactly what the US is intending, after confusing remarks from President Trump and the Energy Secretary. Maybe sub-critical tests?
November 5, 2025 at 4:49 PM
Is it is case anyone forgets where it is?
November 5, 2025 at 4:35 PM
Barbara Tuchman set (some of) the scene in "Bible and Sword".

No doubt there are others but the most accessible account I've read on the Mandate period is Tom Segev's "One Palestine, Complete".
November 4, 2025 at 7:48 PM
Ah, on reading further down the thread, I see he was not able to keep a straight face. No medal.
November 4, 2025 at 7:35 PM
Yes. Crombies v skinheads.
November 4, 2025 at 8:14 AM
Not good. The theory was always that the more we exposed the Chinese to a western liberal education, the more they would come to see the benefits of democracy, free speech etc. In this case it seems to have worked the other way round.
November 3, 2025 at 6:36 AM