Tangotiger
@tangotiger.com
MLBAM Senior Data Architect
Website http://www.tangotiger.com
Co-author of The Book, with limited free access from
- Amazon: http://tinyurl.com/tangotiger
- Google Books: http://tinyurl.com/tangotiger2
Website http://www.tangotiger.com
Co-author of The Book, with limited free access from
- Amazon: http://tinyurl.com/tangotiger
- Google Books: http://tinyurl.com/tangotiger2
Polymarket has Cale Makar at 75% chance of winning the Norris
At the end of last season he was similarly well-positioned
At the end of last season he was similarly well-positioned
January 14, 2026 at 3:03 AM
Polymarket has Cale Makar at 75% chance of winning the Norris
At the end of last season he was similarly well-positioned
At the end of last season he was similarly well-positioned
Interesting... so, ~50/50 for the bottom half
Can you give an update to your 2016 article with who is now "the 30", and show which guys you missed out on, and where they were 10 years ago?
Can you give an update to your 2016 article with who is now "the 30", and show which guys you missed out on, and where they were 10 years ago?
January 12, 2026 at 2:48 PM
Interesting... so, ~50/50 for the bottom half
Can you give an update to your 2016 article with who is now "the 30", and show which guys you missed out on, and where they were 10 years ago?
Can you give an update to your 2016 article with who is now "the 30", and show which guys you missed out on, and where they were 10 years ago?
When the Red Army team tied the Habs in that famed NY Eve game, they were famously outshot 38-13. Their 38 shots allowed was actually their FEWEST allowed of the 4 games they played in the Super Series
In the 4 games, they were outshot 168-74, but they outscored the NHL teams 16-12
In the 4 games, they were outshot 168-74, but they outscored the NHL teams 16-12
January 11, 2026 at 8:44 PM
When the Red Army team tied the Habs in that famed NY Eve game, they were famously outshot 38-13. Their 38 shots allowed was actually their FEWEST allowed of the 4 games they played in the Super Series
In the 4 games, they were outshot 168-74, but they outscored the NHL teams 16-12
In the 4 games, they were outshot 168-74, but they outscored the NHL teams 16-12
Amount of Drop of Fastball
As Pitches Travels Over the Plate to the Catcher
Remember: 2026 Strike Zone is going to be brand-new for every batter. This will mean adjusting your view of the Strike Zone
And while pre-2026 weve PRESENTED the strike zone as 2D, it never WAS that
As Pitches Travels Over the Plate to the Catcher
Remember: 2026 Strike Zone is going to be brand-new for every batter. This will mean adjusting your view of the Strike Zone
And while pre-2026 weve PRESENTED the strike zone as 2D, it never WAS that
January 10, 2026 at 8:42 PM
Amount of Drop of Fastball
As Pitches Travels Over the Plate to the Catcher
Remember: 2026 Strike Zone is going to be brand-new for every batter. This will mean adjusting your view of the Strike Zone
And while pre-2026 weve PRESENTED the strike zone as 2D, it never WAS that
As Pitches Travels Over the Plate to the Catcher
Remember: 2026 Strike Zone is going to be brand-new for every batter. This will mean adjusting your view of the Strike Zone
And while pre-2026 weve PRESENTED the strike zone as 2D, it never WAS that
Based on these polls, the prevailing wisdom of my followers is suggesting the following
- 30 years ago, pitch speeds ~6 mph slower
- 60 years ago, ~8 mph slower
- 100 years ago, ~15 mph slower
Basically, maintaining 1 mph increase every 5 - 7 years, just as we've seen 2008-2025
- 30 years ago, pitch speeds ~6 mph slower
- 60 years ago, ~8 mph slower
- 100 years ago, ~15 mph slower
Basically, maintaining 1 mph increase every 5 - 7 years, just as we've seen 2008-2025
January 10, 2026 at 5:09 PM
Based on these polls, the prevailing wisdom of my followers is suggesting the following
- 30 years ago, pitch speeds ~6 mph slower
- 60 years ago, ~8 mph slower
- 100 years ago, ~15 mph slower
Basically, maintaining 1 mph increase every 5 - 7 years, just as we've seen 2008-2025
- 30 years ago, pitch speeds ~6 mph slower
- 60 years ago, ~8 mph slower
- 100 years ago, ~15 mph slower
Basically, maintaining 1 mph increase every 5 - 7 years, just as we've seen 2008-2025
This is the pitch speed of fastballs, limited to RELIEVERS ONLY
Notice that in 2015-2020, the speeds were generally stable. In this time period, ALL THREE TRACKING SYSTEMS is covered:
2008-16: System 1
2017-19: System 2
2020-25: System 3
baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_sea...
Notice that in 2015-2020, the speeds were generally stable. In this time period, ALL THREE TRACKING SYSTEMS is covered:
2008-16: System 1
2017-19: System 2
2020-25: System 3
baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_sea...
January 10, 2026 at 2:27 PM
This is the pitch speed of fastballs, limited to RELIEVERS ONLY
Notice that in 2015-2020, the speeds were generally stable. In this time period, ALL THREE TRACKING SYSTEMS is covered:
2008-16: System 1
2017-19: System 2
2020-25: System 3
baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_sea...
Notice that in 2015-2020, the speeds were generally stable. In this time period, ALL THREE TRACKING SYSTEMS is covered:
2008-16: System 1
2017-19: System 2
2020-25: System 3
baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_sea...
Fastball Speed Pitch Distribution
January 10, 2026 at 1:38 PM
Fastball Speed Pitch Distribution
Percentage of Fastball Pitches thrown, by year, by speed, since 2008
All speeds ~out-of-hand
95 means 95 to 95.999
Boundaries:
85 means under 85.999 and under
100 means 100+
2008: 45% thrown 92+, 7% @ 96+
2025: 41% thrown 95+, 7% @ 98+
All speeds ~out-of-hand
95 means 95 to 95.999
Boundaries:
85 means under 85.999 and under
100 means 100+
2008: 45% thrown 92+, 7% @ 96+
2025: 41% thrown 95+, 7% @ 98+
January 10, 2026 at 1:19 PM
Percentage of Fastball Pitches thrown, by year, by speed, since 2008
All speeds ~out-of-hand
95 means 95 to 95.999
Boundaries:
85 means under 85.999 and under
100 means 100+
2008: 45% thrown 92+, 7% @ 96+
2025: 41% thrown 95+, 7% @ 98+
All speeds ~out-of-hand
95 means 95 to 95.999
Boundaries:
85 means under 85.999 and under
100 means 100+
2008: 45% thrown 92+, 7% @ 96+
2025: 41% thrown 95+, 7% @ 98+
Using pitch speed *out of hand*, avg pitch speed increases by 0.7-0.8 mph every 4-6 years
Weve gained astounding 2.9 mph over 17 years
Now, its three different tracking systems in that time period (2008-16, 2017-19, 2020-present)
Even limiting to same-tracker, you get changes
Weve gained astounding 2.9 mph over 17 years
Now, its three different tracking systems in that time period (2008-16, 2017-19, 2020-present)
Even limiting to same-tracker, you get changes
January 10, 2026 at 12:34 PM
Using pitch speed *out of hand*, avg pitch speed increases by 0.7-0.8 mph every 4-6 years
Weve gained astounding 2.9 mph over 17 years
Now, its three different tracking systems in that time period (2008-16, 2017-19, 2020-present)
Even limiting to same-tracker, you get changes
Weve gained astounding 2.9 mph over 17 years
Now, its three different tracking systems in that time period (2008-16, 2017-19, 2020-present)
Even limiting to same-tracker, you get changes
Hitting with BABE RUTH & HONUS WAGNER's 40-ounce Wood Bats
YouTube video by The Baseball Bat Bros
www.youtube.com
January 10, 2026 at 12:16 PM
Proposal: NHL plays intra-division games only to start season, 7 games against each opponent, +1, 50 games
Top 4 of each division goes into Premier League, remaining go into Division 1 League, 16 teams each: two games against each intra-league, 30 games
Playoffs work like this:
Top 4 of each division goes into Premier League, remaining go into Division 1 League, 16 teams each: two games against each intra-league, 30 games
Playoffs work like this:
January 7, 2026 at 2:31 PM
Proposal: NHL plays intra-division games only to start season, 7 games against each opponent, +1, 50 games
Top 4 of each division goes into Premier League, remaining go into Division 1 League, 16 teams each: two games against each intra-league, 30 games
Playoffs work like this:
Top 4 of each division goes into Premier League, remaining go into Division 1 League, 16 teams each: two games against each intra-league, 30 games
Playoffs work like this:
cc: @enosarris.bsky.social
I gave back-of-envelope range as +/-5%; Craig is saying with more care +/-3%
As with everything, job of saberist is not to say IF something exists, but rather the EXTENT to which it exists. And theres just not much there in terms of controlling for opposition quality
I gave back-of-envelope range as +/-5%; Craig is saying with more care +/-3%
As with everything, job of saberist is not to say IF something exists, but rather the EXTENT to which it exists. And theres just not much there in terms of controlling for opposition quality
early returns are that Pham faced a league-average collection of pitchers per DRA/cFIP basically on the button. Also that the spread for DRA- is ~97-103, so just not a substantial gap, broadly speaking.
I guess one bit of follow up I'd like to see from the pham piece is whether the Pirates (or Pham) were really at a deficit i/r/t quality of pitcher faced? I get that PIT had the highest average leverage index or w/e, but I'd be curious to see what (if any) gap actually exists on opponent quality
January 5, 2026 at 11:40 PM
cc: @enosarris.bsky.social
I gave back-of-envelope range as +/-5%; Craig is saying with more care +/-3%
As with everything, job of saberist is not to say IF something exists, but rather the EXTENT to which it exists. And theres just not much there in terms of controlling for opposition quality
I gave back-of-envelope range as +/-5%; Craig is saying with more care +/-3%
As with everything, job of saberist is not to say IF something exists, but rather the EXTENT to which it exists. And theres just not much there in terms of controlling for opposition quality
January 3, 2026 at 11:08 PM
Remember when Facebook was cool?
Every 10 years, the next generation of teenagers want nothing to do with whatever their parents may have used
Maybe in 30 years, Facebook will be cool again
And same applies for X when it will be renamed in the future as Y
Every 10 years, the next generation of teenagers want nothing to do with whatever their parents may have used
Maybe in 30 years, Facebook will be cool again
And same applies for X when it will be renamed in the future as Y
Every metric shows that X is not just unpopular but largely considered lame by anyone younger than 30. X tries to counter this by saying it’s still the best megaphone for outlets but anyone who tracks clickthrough traffic also knows this isn’t true.
Elon's little serfs are quite literally begging journalists to come back because every publicly available source of data shows people have fled the platform and young people won't use it.
They are literally begging regular people to come back. Don't do it! It is a website by and for actual Nazis!
They are literally begging regular people to come back. Don't do it! It is a website by and for actual Nazis!
January 2, 2026 at 11:43 PM
Remember when Facebook was cool?
Every 10 years, the next generation of teenagers want nothing to do with whatever their parents may have used
Maybe in 30 years, Facebook will be cool again
And same applies for X when it will be renamed in the future as Y
Every 10 years, the next generation of teenagers want nothing to do with whatever their parents may have used
Maybe in 30 years, Facebook will be cool again
And same applies for X when it will be renamed in the future as Y
On left are "inputs": similarity based on speed and movement
On right are "outputs": similarity based on batted balls, walks, strikeouts
The missing link? Probably location. Measuring a location skill is the most important thing for a pitcher, and yet all public attempts at it dont bear fruit
On right are "outputs": similarity based on batted balls, walks, strikeouts
The missing link? Probably location. Measuring a location skill is the most important thing for a pitcher, and yet all public attempts at it dont bear fruit
January 2, 2026 at 2:37 PM
On left are "inputs": similarity based on speed and movement
On right are "outputs": similarity based on batted balls, walks, strikeouts
The missing link? Probably location. Measuring a location skill is the most important thing for a pitcher, and yet all public attempts at it dont bear fruit
On right are "outputs": similarity based on batted balls, walks, strikeouts
The missing link? Probably location. Measuring a location skill is the most important thing for a pitcher, and yet all public attempts at it dont bear fruit
We SHOULD be showing Runs Participated In (RPI) as well as Total Average and other stats, because those are natural stepping stones everyone creates before quickly discarding them
Total Average for example is superior to Batting Average. You need to show them before showing why wOBA is preferred
Total Average for example is superior to Batting Average. You need to show them before showing why wOBA is preferred
I probably should have been less snarky, but I have a built-in hatred for the "I invented the perfect stat, R + RBI - HR!" eureka moments that people have
January 1, 2026 at 7:00 PM
We SHOULD be showing Runs Participated In (RPI) as well as Total Average and other stats, because those are natural stepping stones everyone creates before quickly discarding them
Total Average for example is superior to Batting Average. You need to show them before showing why wOBA is preferred
Total Average for example is superior to Batting Average. You need to show them before showing why wOBA is preferred
You only need two goalies on an Olympic roster. The third goalie is only there for practice and to clear pucks out of the net
I couldn't imagine a more deserving player to be named as the #3 goalie on the team
Here's all the goalies who actually played. See? Only 2 needed
I couldn't imagine a more deserving player to be named as the #3 goalie on the team
Here's all the goalies who actually played. See? Only 2 needed
December 31, 2025 at 9:39 PM
You only need two goalies on an Olympic roster. The third goalie is only there for practice and to clear pucks out of the net
I couldn't imagine a more deserving player to be named as the #3 goalie on the team
Here's all the goalies who actually played. See? Only 2 needed
I couldn't imagine a more deserving player to be named as the #3 goalie on the team
Here's all the goalies who actually played. See? Only 2 needed
For #AspiringSaberist, Ive offered an update to a potential new (and final) Cy Young Predictor, consolidating Classic version and FIP version into one unified version. I'd love for someone to spend some time and see how well it did since 2021 at least:
tangotiger.com/index.php/si...
tangotiger.com/index.php/si...
December 31, 2025 at 2:07 PM
For #AspiringSaberist, Ive offered an update to a potential new (and final) Cy Young Predictor, consolidating Classic version and FIP version into one unified version. I'd love for someone to spend some time and see how well it did since 2021 at least:
tangotiger.com/index.php/si...
tangotiger.com/index.php/si...
10 votes: check
All 10 from the mindful-14: check
That makes this an A-1 ballot
All 10 from the mindful-14: check
That makes this an A-1 ballot
My Hall of Fame ballot for this year. I try to write an explainer each year. This year I talked about how I learned to love a bigger Hall.
www.baseballamerica.com/stories/j-j-...
www.baseballamerica.com/stories/j-j-...
December 31, 2025 at 1:34 PM
10 votes: check
All 10 from the mindful-14: check
That makes this an A-1 ballot
All 10 from the mindful-14: check
That makes this an A-1 ballot
December 30, 2025 at 2:51 AM
This is an interesting thought from Micah
First, I agree that when the two axis are the same units, they should be at 1:1 scale. Forcing an overall square, even if that introduces extra whiteness is something I hadn't considered
This is Paul Skenes, pitches out of the zone. The black box is...
First, I agree that when the two axis are the same units, they should be at 1:1 scale. Forcing an overall square, even if that introduces extra whiteness is something I hadn't considered
This is Paul Skenes, pitches out of the zone. The black box is...
December 29, 2025 at 6:44 PM
This is an interesting thought from Micah
First, I agree that when the two axis are the same units, they should be at 1:1 scale. Forcing an overall square, even if that introduces extra whiteness is something I hadn't considered
This is Paul Skenes, pitches out of the zone. The black box is...
First, I agree that when the two axis are the same units, they should be at 1:1 scale. Forcing an overall square, even if that introduces extra whiteness is something I hadn't considered
This is Paul Skenes, pitches out of the zone. The black box is...
Run Value of Events Relative to Outs
1969 - 2025
1969 - 2025
December 28, 2025 at 8:41 PM
Run Value of Events Relative to Outs
1969 - 2025
1969 - 2025
Let's see... a player will get a "rush" at the end (if and only if there is a movement for him like Edgar, Raines, Walker) of flipping ~30% no's year after year.
Pettitte is at 28% after 7 years. Flipping 30% of the 72% no's means another 22% yes to bring him to 50% after year 8.
1/2
Pettitte is at 28% after 7 years. Flipping 30% of the 72% no's means another 22% yes to bring him to 50% after year 8.
1/2
Wagner had already gotten to within striking distance after year 8. Pettitte will have more ground to make up. If all continues well for Pettitte this year, he can hope to finish something like where Mussina was after 2016. It took Mussina 3 more years to be elected. Pettitte will only have 2 left.
December 28, 2025 at 8:10 PM
Let's see... a player will get a "rush" at the end (if and only if there is a movement for him like Edgar, Raines, Walker) of flipping ~30% no's year after year.
Pettitte is at 28% after 7 years. Flipping 30% of the 72% no's means another 22% yes to bring him to 50% after year 8.
1/2
Pettitte is at 28% after 7 years. Flipping 30% of the 72% no's means another 22% yes to bring him to 50% after year 8.
1/2
On the one hand, that's a pretty light ballot
On the other hand, he is voting for pitchers
More importantly: dude's name is Dom Amore!
On the other hand, he is voting for pitchers
More importantly: dude's name is Dom Amore!
Ballot #64 is from Dom Amore. No adds or drops for returning candidates and no first-time eligible candidates selected
Amore’s column: www.courant.com/2025/12/28/d...
Coming soon to the Tracker…
Amore’s column: www.courant.com/2025/12/28/d...
Coming soon to the Tracker…
December 28, 2025 at 3:25 PM
On the one hand, that's a pretty light ballot
On the other hand, he is voting for pitchers
More importantly: dude's name is Dom Amore!
On the other hand, he is voting for pitchers
More importantly: dude's name is Dom Amore!