Peter Matejic
@statspeter.bsky.social
Chief Analyst, Insights and Analysis, at the Joseph Rowntree Foundation working to solve UK Poverty
Slightly higher earnings growth in latest month of data means real earnings are up 0.4% on the year to Sept 25, equating to £2.20 a week, a huge contrast to the previous 12-month period where growth was more than 5 times higher at 2.4%, £11.60 after inflation.
November 11, 2025 at 7:48 AM
Slightly higher earnings growth in latest month of data means real earnings are up 0.4% on the year to Sept 25, equating to £2.20 a week, a huge contrast to the previous 12-month period where growth was more than 5 times higher at 2.4%, £11.60 after inflation.
We learnt today that annual CPI inflation was 3.8% in September 2025. The Universal Credit Act 2025 increases the rate of the standard allowance in Universal Credit by 2.3% after applying this inflation, meaning an increase of around 6.2% in April 2026.
October 22, 2025 at 7:39 AM
We learnt today that annual CPI inflation was 3.8% in September 2025. The Universal Credit Act 2025 increases the rate of the standard allowance in Universal Credit by 2.3% after applying this inflation, meaning an increase of around 6.2% in April 2026.
We are still at near zero real earnings growth since Sept 2024, 11th month in row. We had a very small rise in earnings in August 2025 on previous month, leaving earnings up just 0.2% on Sept 2024.
October 14, 2025 at 8:26 AM
We are still at near zero real earnings growth since Sept 2024, 11th month in row. We had a very small rise in earnings in August 2025 on previous month, leaving earnings up just 0.2% on Sept 2024.
Near zero real earnings growth since Sept, 10th month in row. We had a very small fall in earnings in July 2025 on previous month, leaving earnings up just 0.1% on Sept 2024.
September 16, 2025 at 7:49 AM
Near zero real earnings growth since Sept, 10th month in row. We had a very small fall in earnings in July 2025 on previous month, leaving earnings up just 0.1% on Sept 2024.
It's been too long since we have had a housing-related thread from @jelliott94.bsky.social - now rectified! A good reminder tax changes influence behaviours (for good or ill) as well as affecting revenue.
New report: Taxing landlords more is good, actually.
Since 2016, tax reforms helped slash the growth of the private rented sector and boosted first-time buyers—without hurting existing tenants.
A big housing story hiding in plain sight? ⬇️
Since 2016, tax reforms helped slash the growth of the private rented sector and boosted first-time buyers—without hurting existing tenants.
A big housing story hiding in plain sight? ⬇️
September 11, 2025 at 1:06 PM
It's been too long since we have had a housing-related thread from @jelliott94.bsky.social - now rectified! A good reminder tax changes influence behaviours (for good or ill) as well as affecting revenue.
Thanks to @crsp-uk.bsky.social for their hard work on this report, which unfortunately shows benefits fall woefully short of MIS and even families in work earning the National Living Wage often falling short of the relevant standard.
After a year of a new govt people on low to middle incomes are still struggling to reach the Minimum Income Standard (MIS) 📢
@crsp-uk.bsky.social, supported by JRF, calculated the costs needed to achieve this standard of living in the UK in 2025 1/4
@crsp-uk.bsky.social, supported by JRF, calculated the costs needed to achieve this standard of living in the UK in 2025 1/4
September 9, 2025 at 8:41 AM
Thanks to @crsp-uk.bsky.social for their hard work on this report, which unfortunately shows benefits fall woefully short of MIS and even families in work earning the National Living Wage often falling short of the relevant standard.
A growing economy is good news, and today's growth figures are actually better than expected, even if below the average since 2000. More broadly, the government is running out of time to put direct support for living standards at the heart of its strategy for growth.
GDP grew 0.3% between Apr and June. But the story for families behind these numbers is declining living standards
Without affordable housing, a stable job and strong safety nets, people are less able to take risks or invest in the future
Rising living standards are essential for a strong economy 📢
Without affordable housing, a stable job and strong safety nets, people are less able to take risks or invest in the future
Rising living standards are essential for a strong economy 📢
August 14, 2025 at 9:16 AM
A growing economy is good news, and today's growth figures are actually better than expected, even if below the average since 2000. More broadly, the government is running out of time to put direct support for living standards at the heart of its strategy for growth.
A very small fall in earnings in June 2025 on previous month - now just 0.2% up on Sept 2024, around an eighth of the growth in the same period last year.
August 12, 2025 at 6:32 AM
A very small fall in earnings in June 2025 on previous month - now just 0.2% up on Sept 2024, around an eighth of the growth in the same period last year.
We now have the new MPR. It implies annual private sector wage growth of ~zero by Sept 25 compared to CPIH and ~zero by Dec 25 compared to CPI (and falling relative to CPIH). Not a good earnings backdrop to the Budget.
August 7, 2025 at 12:32 PM
We now have the new MPR. It implies annual private sector wage growth of ~zero by Sept 25 compared to CPIH and ~zero by Dec 25 compared to CPI (and falling relative to CPIH). Not a good earnings backdrop to the Budget.
Ahead of tomorrow’s Monetary Policy Report, look at how real earnings have stagnated since September. They’re up just 0.3% between September 2024 and the latest May 2025 data, just a fifth of the growth over the same period in 2023-24. (1/5)
August 6, 2025 at 6:09 PM
Ahead of tomorrow’s Monetary Policy Report, look at how real earnings have stagnated since September. They’re up just 0.3% between September 2024 and the latest May 2025 data, just a fifth of the growth over the same period in 2023-24. (1/5)
Here's a related comment piece from @mattpadley.bsky.social given his insights on pension reform: www.lboro.ac.uk/media-centre...
July 25, 2025 at 11:09 AM
Here's a related comment piece from @mattpadley.bsky.social given his insights on pension reform: www.lboro.ac.uk/media-centre...
Delighted to give evidence to Work and Pensions Committee on pensioner poverty. Report says "retirement should be dignified and not a struggle at the poverty line." @jrf-uk.bsky.social and @crsp-uk.bsky.social's Minimum Income Standard measures this. What do the stats show? It's not good news (1/4).
July 24, 2025 at 5:01 PM
Delighted to give evidence to Work and Pensions Committee on pensioner poverty. Report says "retirement should be dignified and not a struggle at the poverty line." @jrf-uk.bsky.social and @crsp-uk.bsky.social's Minimum Income Standard measures this. What do the stats show? It's not good news (1/4).
Thanks @bbcnewslive.bsky.social for covering disability cuts (I'm on just after 12.20 at bbc.co.uk/iplayer/live...) I'm proud of everyone's work in getting mitigations for existing recipients, but it's not right support is being cut from future disabled people who will be at high risk of hardship.
bbc.co.uk
June 27, 2025 at 11:55 AM
Thanks @bbcnewslive.bsky.social for covering disability cuts (I'm on just after 12.20 at bbc.co.uk/iplayer/live...) I'm proud of everyone's work in getting mitigations for existing recipients, but it's not right support is being cut from future disabled people who will be at high risk of hardship.
Come join @jrf-uk.bsky.social! These are really important roles, helping us to achieve real *positive* change.
We're hiring two Senior Campaigns and Public Affairs Managers 📢
We're looking for passionate and experienced campaigners to lead our influencing work, attract public and political support, design strategies, and mobilise colleagues and partners to secure bold policy change. 1/2
We're looking for passionate and experienced campaigners to lead our influencing work, attract public and political support, design strategies, and mobilise colleagues and partners to secure bold policy change. 1/2
Octo Candidates - Application Form - Vacancy Details
jrf.octo-firstclass.co.uk
May 14, 2025 at 8:42 AM
Come join @jrf-uk.bsky.social! These are really important roles, helping us to achieve real *positive* change.
Indeed - huge kudos to @learnworkuk.bsky.social for their great work here.
Some @learnworkuk.bsky.social analysis cited here, kindly supported by @jrf-uk.bsky.social . Employment support is a good investment for people & taxpayers. But can't realistically match numbers affected by benefit cuts.
It shows planned £1.8 billion extra investment in employment support over the next four years could help 45,000-95,000 more disabled people into work. 3.2 million people face benefit cuts, meaning maximum share expected to move into work is 3%
May 13, 2025 at 1:11 PM
Indeed - huge kudos to @learnworkuk.bsky.social for their great work here.
My reaction on behalf of @jrf-uk.bsky.social, on today's labour market statistics and the Government's plans to cut disability benefits. The threat of widespread hardship among disabled people, unable to replace the incomes they lose out on through work, is even starker.
May 13, 2025 at 11:56 AM
My reaction on behalf of @jrf-uk.bsky.social, on today's labour market statistics and the Government's plans to cut disability benefits. The threat of widespread hardship among disabled people, unable to replace the incomes they lose out on through work, is even starker.
Well done to @rachelcasey.bsky.social and @jelliott94.bsky.social for their great work looking at how to unlock the potential of young people furthest from the labour market, which should definitely be a Govt top priority: www.jrf.org.uk/work/unlocki.... Give it a read!
The Government’s Get Britain Working white paper and Pathways to Work green paper present competing visions for supporting young people furthest from the labour market into employment.
Read more (1/3)⬇️
Read more (1/3)⬇️
The Pathways to Work proposals will impact young people already facing high levels of hardship - undermining the Youth Guarantee.
💭 @rachelcasey.bsky.social examines the two competing government visions for young people furthest from the labour market.
Read more: www.jrf.org.uk/work/young-p...
💭 @rachelcasey.bsky.social examines the two competing government visions for young people furthest from the labour market.
Read more: www.jrf.org.uk/work/young-p...
May 6, 2025 at 5:15 PM
Well done to @rachelcasey.bsky.social and @jelliott94.bsky.social for their great work looking at how to unlock the potential of young people furthest from the labour market, which should definitely be a Govt top priority: www.jrf.org.uk/work/unlocki.... Give it a read!
See www.jrf.org.uk/child-povert... for some excellent work from @carlaonion.bsky.social looking at deep poverty in Scotland, which needed a lot of work to understand FRS data for Scotland.
Children being left behind: deep poverty among families in Scotland
As we approach the next Scottish election, parties aspiring to government must radically up their game to help the 80,000 children in very deep poverty.
www.jrf.org.uk
April 28, 2025 at 9:49 AM
See www.jrf.org.uk/child-povert... for some excellent work from @carlaonion.bsky.social looking at deep poverty in Scotland, which needed a lot of work to understand FRS data for Scotland.
Our complaint re the growth in health benefits has been upheld: osr.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/corresponden...: "The statement that the number of people claiming disability elements of Universal Credit has increased by 383% presents an entirely misleading picture to the public."
April 1, 2025 at 8:45 AM
Our complaint re the growth in health benefits has been upheld: osr.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/corresponden...: "The statement that the number of people claiming disability elements of Universal Credit has increased by 383% presents an entirely misleading picture to the public."
This is now being investigated by the Statistics Regulator, following three separate complaints, including from me. See issues log at osr.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/casework/.
March 31, 2025 at 8:54 AM
This is now being investigated by the Statistics Regulator, following three separate complaints, including from me. See issues log at osr.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/casework/.
Busy day of analysis ahead - sadly looks like we'll be adding extra loses to these example families (see itv.com/news/2025-03...). Follow @jrf-uk.bsky.social for our insights.
March 26, 2025 at 8:02 AM
Busy day of analysis ahead - sadly looks like we'll be adding extra loses to these example families (see itv.com/news/2025-03...). Follow @jrf-uk.bsky.social for our insights.
In terms of PIP cuts, I have been thinking about the basic maths of needing a 4 within a score of 8 for standard daily living PIP component. Given there is only one 3pt score, those newly missing out will have difficulties in at least 4 areas.
March 19, 2025 at 5:09 PM
In terms of PIP cuts, I have been thinking about the basic maths of needing a 4 within a score of 8 for standard daily living PIP component. Given there is only one 3pt score, those newly missing out will have difficulties in at least 4 areas.
Great thread from @iainkporter.bsky.social.
Big picture today is Government chose to cut unprecedented £5bn of income from disabled people at highest risk of hardship. This drive for cost savings undermines any positive changes contained in the disability benefits green paper.
Here are some other big problems:🧵1/11
Here are some other big problems:🧵1/11
March 19, 2025 at 9:06 AM
Great thread from @iainkporter.bsky.social.
Thanks to @theguardian.com for covering @jrf-uk.bsky.social work (see www.theguardian.com/society/2025...). “A government that came to office pledging to end the moral scar of food bank use clearly should not be taking steps that could leave disabled people at greater risk of needing to use one.”
Keir Starmer to unveil drastic disability benefit cuts despite opposition
Changes could deny benefits to people who need help to wash or to remember to go to the toilet
www.theguardian.com
March 17, 2025 at 9:14 PM
Thanks to @theguardian.com for covering @jrf-uk.bsky.social work (see www.theguardian.com/society/2025...). “A government that came to office pledging to end the moral scar of food bank use clearly should not be taking steps that could leave disabled people at greater risk of needing to use one.”
@jrf-uk.bsky.social has analysed caseload data and can see much of the forecast growth in PIP spending is directed at people with significant difficulties across a range of areas. Over half of the growth in spending is from people in receipt of the higher rate in both PIP elements.
March 17, 2025 at 4:39 PM
@jrf-uk.bsky.social has analysed caseload data and can see much of the forecast growth in PIP spending is directed at people with significant difficulties across a range of areas. Over half of the growth in spending is from people in receipt of the higher rate in both PIP elements.