Peter Matejic
@statspeter.bsky.social
Chief Analyst, Insights and Analysis, at the Joseph Rowntree Foundation working to solve UK Poverty
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Has a stat, the methodology or something else grabbed your attention?
On Wed 4th Feb from 12-2pm, we'll be hosting an Ask Me Anything (AMA) on Reddit with our analysis team.
Questions open on Monday.
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January 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM
Do send in any questions - we have an excellent team of analysts ready to answer any questions you have!
You can probably tell this isn't my natural forte (!), but we wanted to get the message out about how action is needed to lower poverty levels in the UK. If you want to hear more (including from me), join our webinar at 10.30: www.jrf.org.uk/events/uk-po....
January 29, 2026 at 9:59 AM
You can probably tell this isn't my natural forte (!), but we wanted to get the message out about how action is needed to lower poverty levels in the UK. If you want to hear more (including from me), join our webinar at 10.30: www.jrf.org.uk/events/uk-po....
One of the highlights of this and previous years' reports was working with the Grassroots Poverty Action Group. It's important to hear real stories and struggles, and not just reduce this to a commentary on statistics, up or down. Policies and decisions have real impacts!
🗣️ “Nothing’s changed? Everything’s changed. It’s worse.”
We were privileged to work alongside the Grassroots Poverty Action Group (GPAG) on the foreword of our #UKPoverty2026 report that launched this morning.
They also shared their reflections on they key findings in this impactful video ⬇️
We were privileged to work alongside the Grassroots Poverty Action Group (GPAG) on the foreword of our #UKPoverty2026 report that launched this morning.
They also shared their reflections on they key findings in this impactful video ⬇️
January 27, 2026 at 1:49 PM
One of the highlights of this and previous years' reports was working with the Grassroots Poverty Action Group. It's important to hear real stories and struggles, and not just reduce this to a commentary on statistics, up or down. Policies and decisions have real impacts!
This was an enormous amount of work from folk across
@jrf-uk.bsky.social and beyond. Do engage with the content and let us know what you think.
@jrf-uk.bsky.social and beyond. Do engage with the content and let us know what you think.
Poverty is deepening.
🔎 Our #UKPoverty2026 report was launched this morning.
People in very deep poverty now make up the biggest group of people in poverty, at 6.8 million people.
This is unacceptable for the fifth richest country in the world, and it has consequences.
🔎 Our #UKPoverty2026 report was launched this morning.
People in very deep poverty now make up the biggest group of people in poverty, at 6.8 million people.
This is unacceptable for the fifth richest country in the world, and it has consequences.
January 27, 2026 at 12:16 PM
This was an enormous amount of work from folk across
@jrf-uk.bsky.social and beyond. Do engage with the content and let us know what you think.
@jrf-uk.bsky.social and beyond. Do engage with the content and let us know what you think.
Reposted by Peter Matejic
New DWP forecasts show that spending on working-age social security is expected to be stable over the rest of the parliament at 5.1% of GDP
This is a slight increase from the Spring, but is mainly for welcome reasons like removing the two-child limit and reversing some of the cuts put forward then
This is a slight increase from the Spring, but is mainly for welcome reasons like removing the two-child limit and reversing some of the cuts put forward then
December 18, 2025 at 11:33 AM
New DWP forecasts show that spending on working-age social security is expected to be stable over the rest of the parliament at 5.1% of GDP
This is a slight increase from the Spring, but is mainly for welcome reasons like removing the two-child limit and reversing some of the cuts put forward then
This is a slight increase from the Spring, but is mainly for welcome reasons like removing the two-child limit and reversing some of the cuts put forward then
"That would mean the single greatest fall [in child poverty] in one Parliament since records began." Look at how this Parliament could compare to previous ones back to 1964. An excellent foundation to build from, as @katieschmuecker.bsky.social says.
December 5, 2025 at 11:53 AM
"That would mean the single greatest fall [in child poverty] in one Parliament since records began." Look at how this Parliament could compare to previous ones back to 1964. An excellent foundation to build from, as @katieschmuecker.bsky.social says.
Scrapping 2-child limit is great, but other Govt changes are terrible: by 2029/30, 750k new claimants miss out on ~£3,000 a year because of UC health changes, but OBR says this will lead to only a 26k rise in employment, so for 97% of newly sick people it's a straight cut.
Today the OBR finally published employment impacts of Govt’s (remaining) disability benefit cuts, which weren’t ready in the spring. Confirms @jrf-uk.bsky.social analysis at the time that these huge cuts to disabled people’s incomes come with relatively few expected to move into work. 🧵1/3
November 27, 2025 at 3:58 PM
Scrapping 2-child limit is great, but other Govt changes are terrible: by 2029/30, 750k new claimants miss out on ~£3,000 a year because of UC health changes, but OBR says this will lead to only a 26k rise in employment, so for 97% of newly sick people it's a straight cut.
All being well, I should be on @itvnews.bsky.social Calendar in Yorkshire this evening, to talk about Budget measures. DYK the number of children benefitting from the scrapping the 2-child limit in South Yorkshire alone would more than fill Brammall Lane (or Hillsborough if you prefer!)
November 27, 2025 at 3:47 PM
All being well, I should be on @itvnews.bsky.social Calendar in Yorkshire this evening, to talk about Budget measures. DYK the number of children benefitting from the scrapping the 2-child limit in South Yorkshire alone would more than fill Brammall Lane (or Hillsborough if you prefer!)
Why does @jrf-uk.bsky.social show a fall while OBR shows a rise in living standards? See jrf.org.uk/cost-of-livi... for an explainer, and this is my latest version comparing like with like, with both series showing a disappointing profile before taking account of rising housing costs.
November 26, 2025 at 6:18 PM
Why does @jrf-uk.bsky.social show a fall while OBR shows a rise in living standards? See jrf.org.uk/cost-of-livi... for an explainer, and this is my latest version comparing like with like, with both series showing a disappointing profile before taking account of rising housing costs.
Chancellor said lifting 2-child limit means "Biggest reduction in child poverty over a Parliament since records began." Estimated 400k reduction would be, but modelling is always uncertain. What is certain is that removing the 2 Child Limit is pivotal to the fall.
November 26, 2025 at 4:40 PM
Chancellor said lifting 2-child limit means "Biggest reduction in child poverty over a Parliament since records began." Estimated 400k reduction would be, but modelling is always uncertain. What is certain is that removing the 2 Child Limit is pivotal to the fall.
A child poverty strategy with the 2-child limit in place would *not* be a credible child poverty strategy. *All* of the growth in child poverty since the 2011/12 low point is for children in scope of this policy.
November 24, 2025 at 3:45 PM
A child poverty strategy with the 2-child limit in place would *not* be a credible child poverty strategy. *All* of the growth in child poverty since the 2011/12 low point is for children in scope of this policy.
Slightly higher earnings growth in latest month of data means real earnings are up 0.4% on the year to Sept 25, equating to £2.20 a week, a huge contrast to the previous 12-month period where growth was more than 5 times higher at 2.4%, £11.60 after inflation.
November 11, 2025 at 7:48 AM
Slightly higher earnings growth in latest month of data means real earnings are up 0.4% on the year to Sept 25, equating to £2.20 a week, a huge contrast to the previous 12-month period where growth was more than 5 times higher at 2.4%, £11.60 after inflation.
We learnt today that annual CPI inflation was 3.8% in September 2025. The Universal Credit Act 2025 increases the rate of the standard allowance in Universal Credit by 2.3% after applying this inflation, meaning an increase of around 6.2% in April 2026.
October 22, 2025 at 7:39 AM
We learnt today that annual CPI inflation was 3.8% in September 2025. The Universal Credit Act 2025 increases the rate of the standard allowance in Universal Credit by 2.3% after applying this inflation, meaning an increase of around 6.2% in April 2026.
We are still at near zero real earnings growth since Sept 2024, 11th month in row. We had a very small rise in earnings in August 2025 on previous month, leaving earnings up just 0.2% on Sept 2024.
October 14, 2025 at 8:26 AM
We are still at near zero real earnings growth since Sept 2024, 11th month in row. We had a very small rise in earnings in August 2025 on previous month, leaving earnings up just 0.2% on Sept 2024.
Near zero real earnings growth since Sept, 10th month in row. We had a very small fall in earnings in July 2025 on previous month, leaving earnings up just 0.1% on Sept 2024.
September 16, 2025 at 7:49 AM
Near zero real earnings growth since Sept, 10th month in row. We had a very small fall in earnings in July 2025 on previous month, leaving earnings up just 0.1% on Sept 2024.
It's been too long since we have had a housing-related thread from @jelliott94.bsky.social - now rectified! A good reminder tax changes influence behaviours (for good or ill) as well as affecting revenue.
New report: Taxing landlords more is good, actually.
Since 2016, tax reforms helped slash the growth of the private rented sector and boosted first-time buyers—without hurting existing tenants.
A big housing story hiding in plain sight? ⬇️
Since 2016, tax reforms helped slash the growth of the private rented sector and boosted first-time buyers—without hurting existing tenants.
A big housing story hiding in plain sight? ⬇️
September 11, 2025 at 1:06 PM
It's been too long since we have had a housing-related thread from @jelliott94.bsky.social - now rectified! A good reminder tax changes influence behaviours (for good or ill) as well as affecting revenue.
Thanks to @crsp-uk.bsky.social for their hard work on this report, which unfortunately shows benefits fall woefully short of MIS and even families in work earning the National Living Wage often falling short of the relevant standard.
After a year of a new govt people on low to middle incomes are still struggling to reach the Minimum Income Standard (MIS) 📢
@crsp-uk.bsky.social, supported by JRF, calculated the costs needed to achieve this standard of living in the UK in 2025 1/4
@crsp-uk.bsky.social, supported by JRF, calculated the costs needed to achieve this standard of living in the UK in 2025 1/4
September 9, 2025 at 8:41 AM
Thanks to @crsp-uk.bsky.social for their hard work on this report, which unfortunately shows benefits fall woefully short of MIS and even families in work earning the National Living Wage often falling short of the relevant standard.
A growing economy is good news, and today's growth figures are actually better than expected, even if below the average since 2000. More broadly, the government is running out of time to put direct support for living standards at the heart of its strategy for growth.
GDP grew 0.3% between Apr and June. But the story for families behind these numbers is declining living standards
Without affordable housing, a stable job and strong safety nets, people are less able to take risks or invest in the future
Rising living standards are essential for a strong economy 📢
Without affordable housing, a stable job and strong safety nets, people are less able to take risks or invest in the future
Rising living standards are essential for a strong economy 📢
August 14, 2025 at 9:16 AM
A growing economy is good news, and today's growth figures are actually better than expected, even if below the average since 2000. More broadly, the government is running out of time to put direct support for living standards at the heart of its strategy for growth.
A very small fall in earnings in June 2025 on previous month - now just 0.2% up on Sept 2024, around an eighth of the growth in the same period last year.
August 12, 2025 at 6:32 AM
A very small fall in earnings in June 2025 on previous month - now just 0.2% up on Sept 2024, around an eighth of the growth in the same period last year.
We now have the new MPR. It implies annual private sector wage growth of ~zero by Sept 25 compared to CPIH and ~zero by Dec 25 compared to CPI (and falling relative to CPIH). Not a good earnings backdrop to the Budget.
August 7, 2025 at 12:32 PM
We now have the new MPR. It implies annual private sector wage growth of ~zero by Sept 25 compared to CPIH and ~zero by Dec 25 compared to CPI (and falling relative to CPIH). Not a good earnings backdrop to the Budget.
Ahead of tomorrow’s Monetary Policy Report, look at how real earnings have stagnated since September. They’re up just 0.3% between September 2024 and the latest May 2025 data, just a fifth of the growth over the same period in 2023-24. (1/5)
August 6, 2025 at 6:09 PM
Ahead of tomorrow’s Monetary Policy Report, look at how real earnings have stagnated since September. They’re up just 0.3% between September 2024 and the latest May 2025 data, just a fifth of the growth over the same period in 2023-24. (1/5)
Here's a related comment piece from @mattpadley.bsky.social given his insights on pension reform: www.lboro.ac.uk/media-centre...
July 25, 2025 at 11:09 AM
Here's a related comment piece from @mattpadley.bsky.social given his insights on pension reform: www.lboro.ac.uk/media-centre...
Delighted to give evidence to Work and Pensions Committee on pensioner poverty. Report says "retirement should be dignified and not a struggle at the poverty line." @jrf-uk.bsky.social and @crsp-uk.bsky.social's Minimum Income Standard measures this. What do the stats show? It's not good news (1/4).
July 24, 2025 at 5:01 PM
Delighted to give evidence to Work and Pensions Committee on pensioner poverty. Report says "retirement should be dignified and not a struggle at the poverty line." @jrf-uk.bsky.social and @crsp-uk.bsky.social's Minimum Income Standard measures this. What do the stats show? It's not good news (1/4).
Thanks @bbcnewslive.bsky.social for covering disability cuts (I'm on just after 12.20 at bbc.co.uk/iplayer/live...) I'm proud of everyone's work in getting mitigations for existing recipients, but it's not right support is being cut from future disabled people who will be at high risk of hardship.
bbc.co.uk
June 27, 2025 at 11:55 AM
Thanks @bbcnewslive.bsky.social for covering disability cuts (I'm on just after 12.20 at bbc.co.uk/iplayer/live...) I'm proud of everyone's work in getting mitigations for existing recipients, but it's not right support is being cut from future disabled people who will be at high risk of hardship.